![\"phils](\"http:\/\/farm1.static.flickr.com\/159\/437942705_76099bc924.jpg\")
<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
This week, Phillies players from all over the country and Latin America are packing their bags and heading to Florida for the start of Spring Training.\u00a0 It’s always an exciting time because it signals the return of baseball and even though I can’t quite see the light at the end of the winter tunnel, I can start to imagine what that light will look like.\u00a0 I’m hear to tell you readers, that that light\u00a0will be beautiful and\u00a0warm.\u00a0 Very warm.\u00a0 In the meantime though, the arrival of the\u00a0pitchers and catchers this year is especially exciting, because the team arrives as National League East Division Champions, for the first time in fourteen years.<\/p>\n
Still, even as they go into this season with a division crown on their collective heads, they were a fairly flawed team last year and there have been some key roster changes in the off-season.\u00a0 The success of a major-league baseball team generally hinges on a few key elements of that team.\u00a0 The race to win a division among the two or three main contenders is comparable to a presidential election process.\u00a0 There are known entities on\u00a0a baseball team, just as there are voters that will vote for a certain candidate no matter what happens in\u00a0a presidential\u00a0campaign.\u00a0 The key to winning an election is to sway the undecided voters and the key to winning a division is to have the\u00a0“unknown” quantities work in your favor.\u00a0 Every team has these question marks going\u00a0into the season and they can’t be successful unless they get the right answers.\u00a0 So what are the key questions for the 2008 Phillies?<\/p>\n
Will the back-end of the rotation be able to keep them in games?\u00a0 <\/strong><\/p>\n Some may argue that the rotation as a whole is a question mark, but I think you have a\u00a0pretty good idea, for better or worse, what you’re getting with the front three of Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, and Jamie Moyer.\u00a0 The real question marks Eaton is the favorite to win the spot right now because he\u00a0has the best combination of a track record and a healthy pitching arm.\u00a0 Of course, he also has that 6.29 ERA from last season.\u00a0 There is no reason to believe that Eaton will ever live up to the $24 million contract he signed before last season, but there is reason to hope that he can at least be a capable fifth starter.\u00a0 Last season was easily the worst of his career, and everyone has down years, right?\u00a0 I won’t claim to be optimistic about Eaton, and it’s hard to figure out what possessed Pat Gillick to give him this contract in the first-place, but\u00a0if he can resemble the pitcher he was in 2003-05 with San Diego,\u00a0he can handle the fifth starter role.\u00a0<\/p>\n How will the corner outfield situation shake out?<\/strong><\/p>\n At first glance, the Phils appear to be adequately stocked in the corner outfield with Pat Burrell, Geoff Jenkins, and Jayson Werth.\u00a0 I think there’s some reason to be concerned here though, and with Aaron Rowand gone, this group will be counted on to provide protection in the line-up\u00a0after Ryan Howard.\u00a0<\/p>\n In right field, what can the Phils count on getting from\u00a0the Jenkins\/Werth platoon?\u00a0 As I’ve mentioned in other posts, Jenkins has been in decline for a number of years and who knows when he will hit the wall.\u00a0 The Phillies are probably hoping that the move to Citizens Bank Park will rejuvenate him and that’s a good possibility.\u00a0 Guys with warning-track power can be much more than that\u00a0when they take swings at CB Park.\u00a0 Then there\u00a0is Werth, who has been around for a number of years but can\u00a0still be put in the same category as Kendrick: unproven.\u00a0 There’s really not much evidence to suggest that he can duplicate what he did last season, but, of course, that doesn’t mean it won’t happen.\u00a0\u00a0The fact\u00a0that\u00a0he’ll be playing mostly against lefties will probably keep him from being exposed too badly.\u00a0<\/p>\n In left field,\u00a0 Burrell is, for the most part, not a question mark.\u00a0 He has actually\u00a0put\u00a0up\u00a0pretty consistent\u00a0numbers over the last three Will the bullpen be able to hold leads?<\/strong><\/p>\n With all the focus on the starting rotation’s deficiencies, the bullpen has become an overlooked question mark for this team.\u00a0 However, I do not see the most important member of the bullpen, closer Brad Lidge, as a question mark.\u00a0 There has been a lot\u00a0said and written\u00a0about Lidge “breaking down mentally”, or however you want to word it, after giving up that monster home run to Albert Pujols in the 2005 NLCS.\u00a0 It’s not completely baseless.\u00a0 Lidge\u00a0did follow up that home run with a dismal performance in the World Series and then a not-so-great 2006 season.\u00a0 But\u00a0even\u00a0in a “bad” year for Lidge\u00a0in 2006, he still held opponents to a .238 batting average.\u00a0 Then, after a\u00a0rough start to his 2007 season caused him to lose his closer job, he recovered to finish the season with a 3.36 ERA and a .219 opponent’s average, both only\u00a0slightly\u00a0above his career average.\u00a0\u00a0He\u00a0was also\u00a0went back to closing games and\u00a0picked up 19 saves after the All-Star Break.\u00a0 All along, he\u00a0has remained one\u00a0of the most prolific strike-out pitchers in all of baseball,\u00a0striking out 192 batters in 137 innings over the last two\u00a0seasons.\u00a0 I don’t know if he’ll\u00a0reach the heights of dominance he did a few years ago, but I am very confident that he will be a good closer.\u00a0<\/p>\n Meanwhile,\u00a0after Lidge,\u00a0Gordon, Madson, and J.C. Romero, the rest of the bullpen spots will be filled by guys that could be described as question marks at best: Clay Condrey, Fabio\u00a0Castro, Joe Bisenius, Scott Mathieson, and Francisco Rosario are among the candidates.<\/p>\n So, as it strange\u00a0as it sounds, the Phillies season\u00a0may not depend on guys named\u00a0Rollins, Utley, and Hamels as much as guys named Benson, Jenkins, and Madson.\u00a0 That’s not a bad thing, that’s just baseball.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" This week, Phillies players from all over the country and Latin America are packing their bags and heading to Florida for the start of Spring Training.\u00a0 It’s always an exciting time because it signals the return of baseball and even … Continue reading ![\"eaton\"](\"http:\/\/philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com\/images\/2007\/03\/08\/nCArpVFK.jpg\")
are the #4 and #5 spots.\u00a0 Kyle Kendrick is the #4 man right now and he had a\u00a0fantastic rookie season, but whether or not he can repeat that success is anyone’s guess.\u00a0 Then you get to the fifth spot in the rotation and things really get dicey.\u00a0 It’s shaping up to be an open competition between Adam Eaton, Chad Durbin, J.D. Durbin,\u00a0Rule-5 draftee Travis Blackley,\u00a0and the newly acquired Kris Benson<\/a>.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n![\"benson\"](\"http:\/\/media.philly.com\/images\/20071218_inq_phils18-a.JPG\")
Benson is intriguing, but the fact that no team\u00a0was willing to give him a major-league contract (not even the Phillies, who brought\u00a0him in on a minor-league deal) shows that he is probably a long-shot to be ready for the start of\u00a0the season,\u00a0following last\u00a0year’s shoulder surgery.\u00a0\u00a0He’s hoping to be in the Phillies rotation by\u00a0Opening Day and if he doesn’t make the cut,\u00a0he\u00a0may opt to see what other offers are out there\u00a0instead of going to\u00a0Triple-A.\u00a0 If Benson is healthy and close to what he was before the injury, he is far and away the best of this fifth starter group, which makes the decision to bring him in on a minor league-deal a good one.<\/p>\n![\"burrell\"](\"http:\/\/thefeed.blogs.com\/photos\/uncategorized\/2007\/08\/31\/burrell.jpg\")
seasons and\u00a0there’s no reason to think he will do much better or worse in\u00a02008.\u00a0 However, with his contract expiring at the end of the year,\u00a0it will be interesting to see if the Phillies consider trading him at mid-season to bolster the pitching staff.\u00a0 That would only really be possible if Jenkins and Werth (and maybe\u00a0even Pedro Feliz, as well) are producing, but if they are, it may be tempting for\u00a0Gillick to look into Burrell’s trade value.\u00a0 Burrell will be 32 next season and probably will be looking for a 4-5 year contract worth at least $10 million a year.\u00a0 If the team decides they won’t be interested in re-signing him, it would make a lot of sense to see if there’s any teams in need of a power hitter with some starting pitching to spare.\u00a0 A couple of possible trades would be to the\u00a0Angels for Jon Garland or to the Indians for\u00a0Jake Westbrook.<\/p>\n![\"flash\"](\"http:\/\/i.a.cnn.net\/si\/2006\/fantasy\/07\/20\/relief.efforts\/p1_gordon.jpg\")
So, why is the\u00a0bullpen an unknown?\u00a0 Well, the main set-up man, Tom Gordon, turned 40 in November and is coming off a season in which he\u00a0spent considerable time on the\u00a0disabled list and wasn’t\u00a0all that great\u00a0when he was healthy.\u00a0\u00a0That’s a crucial role on the team\u00a0and\u00a0it\u00a0seems very dangerous to be counting on\u00a0him so much\u00a0at this point in his career.\u00a0 Another key member of the bullpen is Ryan Madson, who pitched excellently last year, but was lost\u00a0for the season in July with a shoulder injury.\u00a0 Will he feel any effects from the injury and will he possibly revert to his 2006 form, when he posted an ERA well over 5?<\/p>\n