Usually the Super Bowl excited me for the commercials first and the game a distant second.\u00a0 But, this year is all about the game.\u00a0 This one is going to be fantastic!\u00a0 We have two incredible teams who have a great divergence in strengths, making for a fascinating matchup.\u00a0 So, a couple random thoughts leading up to what should be, beneath all the ridiculous pageantry of this day, strictly a great football game.<\/p>\n
Not to Toot My Own Horn, But…<\/em> My Pick Now<\/em> Aaron Rodgers – Am I Missing Something? The Year of the Defense The Steelers D<\/em> Packers D Rashard Mendenhall<\/em> Doug Legursky<\/em> The Most Interesting X-O Facet of this Game – Will the Packers Spread the Steelers Out?<\/em> Heath Miller The Packers Team Photo Great Super Bowl<\/em> Usually the Super Bowl excited me for the commercials first and the game a distant second.\u00a0 But, this year is all about the game.\u00a0 This one is going to be fantastic!\u00a0 We have two incredible teams who have a great … Continue reading
\nIt is very rare that I will talk about any great personal “predictions” on this site (not by choice or humility–by a lack of any good predictions), but this one I have to bring up.\u00a0 On September 11, 2010 – before\u00a0Week\u00a0One\u00a0– I wrote a post laying out my playoff predictions for the upcoming season<\/a>.\u00a0 And, my Super Bowl prediction was Green Bay over Pittsburgh.\u00a0 What does this mean?\u00a0 Absolutely nothing.\u00a0 In fact, when I realized this and told my wife that I nailed this Super Bowl prediction more than\u00a04 months ago, she cooly responded with “If you’re so smart, why didn’t you put money on it?”\u00a0 Good point…I’ve got nothing in response.<\/p>\n
\nIn that preview section, I predicted a blowout Green Bay win, 31-7, with Aaron Rodgers having a big day and Roethlisberger having a karmically terrible day (mostly because I can’t stand the stories of that night in Georgia).\u00a0 However, I am going to completely ruin my “great pick” here by flip-flopping in the 11th hour.\u00a0 I really like the Steelers tonight.\u00a0 Maybe not by a lot, but I think the Steelers are just a better team.\u00a0 Most of why will be expressed in the following post, but put me down for Pittsburgh 24 – Green Bay 20.<\/p>\n
\n<\/em>Look, I think Aaron Rodgers is great.\u00a0 Before the season started, I thought he would be league MVP and Super Bowl MVP.\u00a0 I think he’s going to be a top five (or better) quarterback in this league.\u00a0 But, let’s really look at this playoff run.\u00a0 If you listen to just about anyone with an opinion, you will think he has completely recreated the quarterback position by playing better than anyone ever has.\u00a0 Is it me or is this crazy?\u00a0 Am I the only one who thinks that he has been “good,” but not “great” in two of the three playoff games to which everyone refers.\u00a0 In fact, I have watched all 12 playoff quarters of Rodgers this year, and I thought he was absolutely fantastic<\/em> in 7 of those quarters (4 of which were in that Atlanta game).\u00a0 But, in 5 of the 8 quarters not played in Atlanta, he was dowright mediocre.\u00a0 He was outstanding in the first half of the Eagles game, but he was not very good in the second half, including a sack-fumble and a couple of bad three-and-outs, that led them to only an underthrown Vick pass away from being eliminated in the first round.\u00a0 In fact, in that whole game, he only led three drives into scoring position, they just were fortunate (or good) enough to convert those three into 21 points, while the Eagles turned 6 drives into scoring position into only 16 points (2 TDs, 1 FG, 2 missed FGs, and one INT\u00a0in the endzone).\u00a0 Then, in the Bears game, Rodgers was TERRIFIC in the first 19 minutes, going up 14-0, but was very mediocre after that, as the offense didn’t score a single point in the final 41 minutes, as they nearly blew the game to some guy named Caleb Haney.\u00a0 I think we might be a little fooled by the quick starts and the almost perfect game in Atlanta.\u00a0 But, honestly, Rodgers has definitely been good this postseason, but all in all, most of his numbers were against a questionable Atlanta defense that clearly wasn’t ready to play – the Steelers are a different animal.<\/p>\n
\n<\/em>2010 in baseball was famously the “Year of the Pitcher.”\u00a0 Well, not so famously, the 2010 NFL season may have been the “Year of the Defense.”\u00a0 The 4 best defenses were the final four teams alive in the NFL, with the best two defenses playing on Super Bowl Sunday.\u00a0 In fact, with the exception of the strange Seattle win over New Orleans, I would argue that the better defense has won all 10 playoff games this year.\u00a0 And, that is another reason why I think the Steelers will win – they are the only team in the NFL with a better defense than Green Bay.\u00a0 With all due respect to Stewart Bradley (huh?), the argument can be made that the FOUR best defensive players in the world will be playing today, in the 2008 Defensive Player of the Year (James Harrison), the 2009 Defensive POY (Charles Woodson), and the top 2 for this year’s Defensive POY (Troy Polamalu and Cla Matthews).<\/p>\n
\nThis defense is incredible.\u00a0 The Pack got a great game from James Starks against the Birds.\u00a0 Do not expect that today, even though we will see a lot of attempts.\u00a0 Mike McCarthy (surprisingly, since he is from the same school as Coach Reid), believes in rushing attempts regardless of the success.\u00a0 So, expect a combined 25 carries for 48 yards from Starks and Brandon Jackson tonight.\u00a0 I do not expect much more, so it is all on Rodgers.<\/p>\n
\n<\/em>This defense is also fantastic and has not gotten as much credit as they deserve because of Rodgers.\u00a0 But, Matthews and Woodson are absolute studs.\u00a0 They will attack Ben on every play.\u00a0 B.J. Raji might be the most important player on this side of the ball, and he gets to attack a backup center (more on this later).\u00a0 Plus, the Packers do have better corners, so they are freer to bring the heat with no problem.\u00a0 Tramon Williams is a complete stud and we all know everything about Woodson.<\/p>\n
\nOn the other side, the Steelers have a running back in whom I do trust.\u00a0 Mendenhall (at least for the first half) was by far<\/em> the best player on the field against the Jets in the AFC Championship Game.\u00a0 The Jets are one of the best tackling defenses in the NFL, and Mendenhall shredded them, breaking tackles left and right.\u00a0 This O-line for the Steelers is questionable, but Mendenhall has the ability to create yards without big holes.\u00a0 He is something that the Packers just do not have.<\/p>\n
\nA lot has been said about the loss of Maurkice Pouncey, the Steelers rookie Pro Bowl center.\u00a0 And, honestly, this is a HUGE loss.\u00a0 However, it might not be quite as big as it may initially appear.\u00a0 Yes, there were snap issues (especially in pressure situations – like at the goal line) last week when Legursky came in to replace Pouncey.\u00a0 But, this is much different.\u00a0 Legursky came in to replace Pouncey in the AFC Championship Game against a ferocious defense.\u00a0 He was so green and worried about blocking schemes, having only taken mental reps all week.\u00a0 But, with Pouncey out, Legursky has now taken the physical reps with the first team for two weeks.\u00a0 Snap issues probably won’t be a problem.\u00a0 What might be a problem, however, is recognition of blitz schemes (a 3-4 is very difficult to read and very dependent upon the center) and the on the second level.\u00a0 The difference between Legursky and Pouncey may not be recognizable to the fan that knows nothing about the o-line (including Yours Truly), but from what I have heard the big difference between the two is that Pouncey is a freak athlete.\u00a0 So, the difference will probably be in the Mendenhall runs that go for\u00a04 yards behind Legursky that may have been sprung for 13 (or more) with Pouncey, who can get into the second level and lay out a LB or DB.<\/p>\n
\nThe Green Bay offensive coaching staff\u00a0has a very interesting dilemma here.\u00a0 Do they throw out 4- or 5-receiver sets\u00a0in an attempt to exploit mismatches by getting guys like Greg Jennings or Jordy Nelson on linebackers?\u00a0 Or, do they throw in a lot of max protection packages to try and keep their QB upright?\u00a0 It really is a fascinating dilemma and a decision that I am glad I do not have to make.\u00a0 The Steelers are so relentless and so aggressive that you want to protect Rodgers (who has been concussed twice – at least – this year).\u00a0 Also, Rodgers looks a lot different after big hits (like the Peppers hit in Chicago).\u00a0 But, if you can get Jennings in the slot on a LB, you might have an 80-yard touchdown.\u00a0 Personally, I would probably side to max protect early and see if we can move the ball with 2 receivers on short slants and if not, then roll the dice and throw Jordy Nelson and James Jones on the field.<\/p>\n
\n<\/em>The “experts” all say that the Packers biggest weakness on defense is how they handle the tight end, so Heath Miller might play a huge role in this game.\u00a0 In fact, Vegas is rooting against that, as they seemed to set a pretty bad line on Heath Miller here.\u00a0 They had a prop bet on total receiving yards for Miller that opened at 21.5.\u00a0 Over the two weeks of betting, apparently there was HEAVY money on the over and the line has nearly doubled to 42.5 today.<\/p>\n
\n<\/em>First of all, I hate this story.\u00a0 Who cares?\u00a0 They fixed it and it is over.\u00a0 However, it is telling, and what it shows is the difference between a team that has been there (the Steelers) and a team that has not (the Packers).\u00a0 Mike Tomlin and company would know exactly how to deal with this, while the Packers seemed “too focused on being focused,” if that makes sense.\u00a0 Experience counts and coaching…give me the Steelers – on both fronts.<\/p>\n
\nNo matter what happens, I think we are in for a great Super Bowl.\u00a0 There are two cities that absolutely LIVE AND DIE with their football teams.\u00a0 The residents of Green Bay actually own <\/em>the team.\u00a0 These are two cities in the middle of the rust belt and hit hard by the economic downturn.\u00a0 As annoying as the bandwagon Steelers fans are, the true fans are maybe the best in the entire NFL.\u00a0 And the Packers fans are right there with them.\u00a0 There are two FANTASTIC teams, and this going to be a classic.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"