Now that that awful 2011-12 NFL season has drawn to an awful conclusion, everyone can now turn their attention a college hoops season that is much more intriguing than one might think, given the disappoinment of some of the top teams and major conferences.\u00a0 There are, as always, plenty of intriguing storylines all over the country as we enter the meat of the season.\u00a0 The month of February is always fantastic for college hoops, and I am ready to make some random, bold (sure-to-be-wrong) predictions about what we will see in the next month and a half.<\/p>\n
So…tell me I’m crazy, but:<\/p>\n
1). No more than 10\u00a0“Rich Conference”\u00a0teams will constitute this year’s Sweet Sixteen<\/strong> So, call it\u00a04 between those two groups.\u00a0 I still need two more…<\/p>\n So, that puts us at at least 6, right?\u00a0 And, while I’m certainly not banking on it, if we absolutely need another, what about this group?<\/p>\n 2). Murray State Will Lose At Least <\/em>Two Games (Quite Possibly 3) Before Selection Sunday<\/strong> 3). Pittsburgh Will Go Further in the NCAA Tournament Than UConn<\/strong> 4). Despite Getting 9 or 10 Teams in the Field, the Big East Will Rank No Higher Than 5th, as\u00a0a Conference, in Combined NCAA Tournament Wins<\/strong> 5). The 2012 NCAA Men’s Basketball Champion Will Be…North Carolina<\/strong> 6). Northwestern Will Make Their First NCAA Tournament in School History<\/strong> 7). The MAC Western Division Will Not Win Another Game Against a MAC Eastern Division Team<\/strong> Now that that awful 2011-12 NFL season has drawn to an awful conclusion, everyone can now turn their attention a college hoops season that is much more intriguing than one might think, given the disappoinment of some of the top … Continue reading
\nIn order for this to be true, I am going to have to find six S16 spots for “mid-major” teams.\u00a0 I think I can…<\/p>\n\n
\nUNLV,\u00a0St. Mary’s, Gonzaga, San Diego St. (possibly even BYU or New Mexico)
\n<\/em>These teams would all compete in any conference in America and should be given decent seedings, with UNLV and St. Mary’s maybe even cracking a top-4 seed, which means that they would only have to avoid an upset to make the S16.<\/li>\n
\nTemple, Xavier, S.Miss, Memphis (outside shot with St. Louis, Marshall, UCF, or even Tulsa or Dayton)<\/em>
\nThese teams are all pretty frisky (and very well-coached), particularly the top 2 in the A-10.\u00a0 Would you be shocked to see\u00a0one from this group in the S16?\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n
\nMurray State, Creighton, Harvard<\/em>
\nThey should all be in the 4-8 seed range, so they will be the seed-favorite in their first game, at least.\u00a0 Is it that far-fetched that one of them wins again in Round Two?<\/li>\n
\nWichita St., Nevada, Cleveland St., the CAA Champ (Drexel\/VCU\/George Mason\/ODU), the MAC Champ (Ohio\/Akron\/Kent St.)<\/em>
\nThese teams have, for the most part, all been there before, and all have solid teams again this year.\u00a0 Plus, they are all looking at seedings around 8-13 or so.\u00a0 Whichever teams fall in the 11-, 12-, or 13-seed ranges would realistically have a route to the S16 that doesn’t include a Rich Conference powerhouse.\u00a0 You mean to tell me that Wichita or Nevada can’t beat Vanderbilt on a Thursday and then Marquette on a Saturday?<\/li>\n
\nIona, Long Beach St., Belmont, Weber St., Oral Roberts, Middle Tennessee<\/em>
\nThese teams are looking at 12-14 seed lines, but have the talent to give anyone in the country a fit on a nightly basis.\u00a0 There are stars on these teams that can get hot and put their teams on their backs (it happens every year).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n
\nThe Patriot champ (Bucknell\/Lehigh), the Big South champ (UNC-Asheville\/Coastal Carolina), the NEC champ (Long Island\/Wagner), the Southland champ (UT-Arlington\/UTSA\/Lamar)<\/em>
\nOkay, I’m probably destroying all my credibility just by mentioning these teams as potential S16 teams (particularly because they’re staring at 15- or 16-seedings if they even survive their conference tournaments), but the fact that I’m pretty confident that I’ll get my 6 already from the above groups, I just wanted to throw it out there as a non-zero chance.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
\nThis kind of flies in the face of my #1 prediction a little bit because if they do lose 2 or 3 games, they will certainly not be a high seed and (depending on whether one of those losses is in the OVC tournament) may not even make the tournament.\u00a0 But, either way, I think this team will have multiple losses before Selection Sunday.\u00a0 St. Mary’s is going to beat them in the BracketBusters matchup, and I can easily see them dropping TWO OVC games down the stretch, as their conference schedule is severely backloaded.\u00a0 They still have road games left against the #2, #3, and #4 teams in the OVC, including the regular season finale at Tennessee Tech, who was picked OVER Murray St. to win the league preseason.\u00a0 And, that game is the second of a two-game road trip to end the season, as they play a pretty good Tennessee State team two days prior to the Tech game.\u00a0 They also go on the road (3 days before BracketBusters) to face a SE Missouri State team that almost beat them in Murray last week.<\/p>\n
\nThis wouldn’t have been all that “bold” to say two months ago, but the Panthers lost their first 7 Big East games.\u00a0 And, while UConn hasn’t exactly lived up to their preseason hype, they were picked by many people to actually repeat<\/em> as champions this year.\u00a0 But, in the months of February and March, college hoops games are won by leaders (generally, point guards) and Pitt’s troubles came when their leader was hurt and now is back.\u00a0 The leader that UConn is missing is on the Charlotte Bobcats and isn’t coming back.\u00a0 Travon Woodall is not the best player on Pitt (he’s probably 3rd or 4th, at best), but, as was shown when he was sidelined, he is probably the most important.\u00a0 Now that he’s back, this team is ready to roll.\u00a0 UConn lost Kemba Walker to the NBA and, while their overall basketball talent is probably much<\/em> better than last year’s version with Kemba, they have no “F you” player on the team this year.<\/p>\n
\nThis conference stinks.\u00a0 And, I fully support the inclusion of 9-10 Big East teams.\u00a0 But, these teams are not good<\/em>.\u00a0 The Big Ten has quality teams that will win in March.\u00a0 The Big XII is top-heavy, but those teams at the top are really, really, really good.\u00a0 And, Kentucky and UNC, by themselves, might win more games than the Big East’s 10 teams, so they won’t even need help from the Floridas or Dukes of the world to help them out.<\/p>\n
\nIt’s stupidly early to make a championship prediction, but I’m stupid, so I’m going to do it.\u00a0 Now, for all of those saying “that’s not that\u00a0bold,” well, you’re probably right, but it’s at least justified by the fact that they will most likely not be a #1-seed, and that there is one team that has seperated itself as the clear #1 team in the country right now (Kentucky).\u00a0 But, to me, the Tar Heels are the best, most balanced, most experienced team in the country and are just waiting for the big stage to really turn it on.\u00a0 They remind me of the second Florida title team that all came back to school to win another title and didn’t really seem to care until tournament time.<\/p>\n
\nThis was a huge story in each of the past two years because the Wildcats started hot and looked in position to make it.\u00a0 But, in each year, they faded down the stretch and were (justly) left out of the field.\u00a0 This year, there has been no talk about them making it because, well, they haven’t really deserved any discussion with the way they’ve played.\u00a0 But, I think this team has the talent and is starting to put it together.\u00a0 They beat Illinois on the road on Sunday and have some other opportunities to earn themselves the historic inclusion (@Purdue 2\/12, @Indiana 2\/15, and then Minnesota, Michigan, and Ohio St. at home down the stretch).\u00a0 With a pretty soft bubble (a phrase I am embarrassed to use because of its disgusting overuse during this month) and the 68-team field, I like their chances.<\/p>\n
\nI would have made this prediction before they even started playing games, which would have been much bolder (and, ultimately, wrong), so it seems a little less bold now, but this still includes 12 regular season games and a slew of conference tournament games.\u00a0 While that preseason prediction would have been wrong – it wouldn’t have been that crazy, as the East is currently 21-3 against the West, including back-to-back nights where they won all 6 inter-division games.\u00a0 This is more of a statement of opposition against the way the conference tournament is slated, where, not only will\u00a0two Western Division teams receive byes, but two more will have home games in the first round against far superior Eastern Division teams.\u00a0 For example, there is a chance that Kent State (16-6, 94 RPI) will have their first conference tournament game ON THE ROAD against Toledo (10-13, 283) or Central Michigan (7-15, 249).\u00a0 And, while Kent has that opening round road game, Ball State (12-9, 235)\u00a0and Eastern Michigan (5-4, 227) will have BYES to the quarterfinals.\u00a0 It’s incredibly unfair and really has never (in my recollection) been exemplified as egregiously as this year in the MAC because the six best teams in the conference and the six Eastern Division teams<\/span>.\u00a0 It’s a joke…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"