{"id":409,"date":"2009-10-28T15:02:14","date_gmt":"2009-10-28T19:02:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.broadstreetbelievers.com\/?p=409"},"modified":"2009-10-28T16:23:38","modified_gmt":"2009-10-28T20:23:38","slug":"world-series-extravaganza","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/broadstreetbelievers.com\/?p=409","title":{"rendered":"World Series Extravaganza"},"content":{"rendered":"

So, we are\u00a0mere hours away from a MOMUNENTAL clash of titans in the War on the Jersey Tur\"champs\"npike (“Turnpike Tussle,” maybe?).\u00a0 Forget being a fan of either team, this is going to be great for the baseball fan.\u00a0 These two are clearly the two best teams in baseball, and they have styles of play that create excitement for the casual fan AND intimate strategy for the serious fan.\u00a0 I almost wish I wasn’t a Phillies fan, so that I could enjoy this each game without my every nerve being shot for four straight hours…ALMOST.<\/p>\n

But, let’s be honest, it is absolutely phenomenal to root for this Phillies team.\u00a0 They are exciting; they play hard on every play from Spring Training to the World Series (as noted by Raul Ibanez when he got here); and, they are just flat-out good.\u00a0 The defending champs (and, yes, Boot, the greatest team in the history of the National League–more on that later, probably after the Series)\u00a0VS the greatest sports franchise in the history of North America.<\/p>\n

So, let us get down to it, with this World Series Extravaganza, with random notes, things to look for, and overall analyses of everything I can squeeze into this post.\u00a0 I’ve been working on this for the better part of three days, so it might be a bit long.<\/p>\n

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\"sabathiaLet’s start by discussing the pitching staffs and the interesting decisions that await these managers.\u00a0 First, we’ll take a look at it from the New York point of view.\u00a0 If I was Joe Girardi, the easy decision would be to throw Sabathia in Games 1, 4, and 7.\u00a0 He has proven that he can pitch and pitch well on three days’ rest, and you have to feel good about your chances whenever he takes the mound.\u00a0 If I were Girardi, I would think to myself:\u00a0 “It is completely reasonable to expect a guy who went 19-8 this year and 3-0 in the playoffs to win two out of three starts.\u00a0 And, it is also completely reasonable for a team that went 89-52 in games not <\/em>decided by Sabathia, to go 2-2 in this series without Sabathia.\u00a0 By those seemingly conservative calculations, the Yankees should win this series, right?”<\/p>\n

But, there is another question for Girardi.\u00a0 Like I said, the easy decision is using Sabathia three times.\u00a0 But, after making that decision, I do not <\/em>think it is obvious that they will only use three starters.\u00a0 If I were a Yankees fan, I would be very <\/em>concerned with both Burnett and Pettitte on short rest, which means that a three-man rotation puts Games 5 & 6 in serious doubt.\u00a0 Burnett is a time bomb with a terrible mental makeup.\u00a0 Pettitte is aging, who has only really pitched his absolute best on MORE <\/em>than regular rest this year.\u00a0 The Phillies are too good of a team to throw out serious question marks in two games.\u00a0 Which is why, if I were Girardi, I would definintely pitch Sabathia in 1, 4, & 7.\u00a0 I would pitch Burnett and Pettitte in 2 & 3, but I would throw CHAD GAUDIN in Game 5, and then, bring Burnett back for Game 6.\u00a0 Yes, Gaudin is a huge question mark, much along the lines of Burnett or Pettitte on short rest, but at least you only have one game with a question mark, instead of two.\u00a0 This is almost an automatic decision if the Phils hold Lee until Game 5 (unless of course the Yanks are up against elimination) because you probably don’t beat Lee at home, anyway, so might as well have a rested pitcher in Game 6 to either clinch the series or send it to Sabathia for Game 7.<\/p>\n

Now, over to the Phillies decisions.\u00a0 There is a lot of talk surrounding throwing Lee three times.\u00a0 He has never pitched on three days’ rest, but that certainly does not\u00a0 <\/em>mean that he cannot be effective.\u00a0 He is the ultimate gamer and a cut-throat competitor, so I think he probably has the makeup to do it but has just never been in the situation where it was warranted.\u00a0 All that being said, I think that that decision (unlike the Yankees decision on Sabathia, which is almost unconditionally a good idea) will be completely based on the results of the first two or three games.\u00a0 If the Phils are up 3-0, they hold off.\u00a0 If the Yanks are up 3-0 or 2-1, Lee pitches.\u00a0 If the Phils are up 2-1, then it’s a game-time decision, depending on a lot of different factors.<\/p>\n

The next questions are about the other games.\u00a0 They have announced that Pedro will throw in Game 2 in The Bronx and\"pedro\" Hamels will pitch Game 3, at home.\u00a0 This does several things.\u00a0 One, it gets Pedro pretty fired up.\u00a0 Two, it allows Hamels to avoid the hostile New York crowd and pitch in the comforts of home.\u00a0 However, there are some small baseball things (that I mentioned on the podcast) that lean slightly in the favor of Hamels pitching Game Two.\u00a0 One, Game Two has the DH, so throwing a right-hander gives the Yankees almost a free pass at using their regular DH, Hideki Matsui.\u00a0 And, then, with Hamels on the mound without the DH, the Yanks can feel confident just sitting Matsui against the lefty.\u00a0 Second, in Game 3, with Hamels on the mound, there will be more left-handers sitting on the Yankees bench for pinch-hitting roles (including Matsui), which puts more emphasis on the Phils left-handed bullpenners, like Eyre and Happ (unless he’s a starter).\u00a0 Also, it is generally theorized that it is best to throw left-handers in Yankee Stadium because of the short right-field porch, but I don’t think this matters because Pedro has always held his own against LH hitters, while Hamels has actually struggled with the curveball against lefties this postseason, giving up several long home runs to left-handed hitters.\u00a0 All in all, I have come around and agree with the Pedro decision.\u00a0 If, god-forbid, the Yanks take both in New York this week, I’d actually feel more confident with Hamels to get us back in the series than Pedro.\u00a0 I think Hamels is one of those guys that “needs to be needed,” if that makes any sense.<\/p>\n

Also, this presents some interesting options for the whole series, actually,\u00a0\u00a0I hope there is no real thought given to throwing Pedro on three days’ rest.\u00a0 With that said Games 4 through 7 are all up in the air, giving Charlie options, depending on the results of the first three games.\u00a0 Lee could come back for 4 & 7, if needed, or he could just pitch 5.\u00a0 Pedro would be available for either 6 or 7.\u00a0 Hamels would also be available for 7.\u00a0 Then, you have Blanton and Happ.\u00a0 One would pitch 4 or 5 (whichever game is not throw by Lee).\u00a0 And, then, whoever does not pitch between Blanton and Happ would be available for either 6 or 7, depending on many, many factors, not the least of which, how effective Pedro and Hamels were the first time around.<\/p>\n

Okay, all this talk of pitching leads me to conclude, undoubtably, that Game One tonight<\/em> is about as important as a first game could possibly be.\u00a0 Let’s think about this.\u00a0 If the Phils win Game One, they go up 1-0.\u00a0 Then you can realistically assume they can split the next two (either Pedro vs. Burnett in Yankee Stadium or Hamels vs. Pettitte in a ROCKING Bank).\u00a0 That gives them a 2-1 lead.\u00a0 Looking ahead for a minute, you have to give the Phillies a pretty big edge in Game 5, no matter what decisions the managers make on the pitching staffs.\u00a0 The Phils would either have a fully-rested Lee or Blanton\/Happ.\u00a0 The Yanks would have to decided whether to throw the easily-rattled AJ Burnett on short rest or go to the completely unknown Chad Gaudin.\u00a0 If it’s Lee, it’s a HUGE advantage for the Phils at home, and even if it’s Blanton\/Happ, I still think the Phils have the edge against a short-rested Burnett (on the road) or Chad Gaudin.\u00a0 So, assuming the Phils have a decided edge in Game 5, we look back to Game 4.\u00a0 Though the Yankees would be have the edge if it’s Sabathia vs. Blanton\/Happ, it’s no more than a toss-up if it’s Sabathia vs. Lee.\u00a0 And, given all the above assumptions, the Yankees would have <\/em>to win this game, on the road, or face three straight elimination games, including Game Five, which we just explained would be a big advantage for the Phils.\u00a0 So, if the Phillies can take tonight’s game, the Yankees almost have <\/em>to win both 2 & 3 or they face some trouble.\u00a0<\/p>\n

In fact, the only game in which you can honestly say one team will have a decided pitching advantage, looking ahead, is Game Five, in the Phillies favor, at home.\u00a0 So, these “toss-up” games\u00a0are even more critical for New York.\u00a0<\/p>\n

All that being said, I think it goes without saying that, regardless of pitching decisions, it is IMPERATIVE that the Phillies do not go back to New York\u00a0needing both 6 & 7 for the title.\u00a0 Personally, I am worried about going back there at all, but it would require a monumental feat to go there needing both <\/em>games to repeat.\u00a0 So, at the very least, the Phils either need a split tonight and tomorrow\u00a0at The Stadium or sweep all three at The Bank this weekend.\u00a0 Basically, they probably need to win the best-of-five to have a legit shot at the best-of-seven.<\/p>\n

\"ibanez\"Now, the question turns to the DH.\u00a0 The Phillies have basically announced that they are going to DH Ibanez and play Ben Francisco in LF against Sabathia tonight.\u00a0 That makes a TON of sense to me.\u00a0 As Doogan mentioned on the podcast, there is something to be said in using a guy who has DH’ed before in his career.\u00a0 It is definitely a hard thing to get used to.\u00a0 You can imagine how, if you’ve never done it before and don’t know how to mentally and physically prepare for at-bats without playing the field, you could see DH’ing as just four pinch-hitting appearances on the same night.\u00a0 But, Ibanez has done it before–and been very good at it–so he knows what to expect; he knows how to prepare his body and not let his mind fall out of the game.\u00a0 Yes, the Phillies won Game One last year with a minor-leaguer at DH, but it’s certainly not ideal.\u00a0 (And, yes, that will probably be my last gratuitous slap at Chris Coste.\u00a0 I guess I shouldn’t be so hard on him, as he was on The Team That Changed My Life, so he can’t be that bad, right?\u00a0 …for a light-hitting, poor-throwing minor league catcher.\u00a0 Okay, that <\/em>is my last one…probably.)<\/p>\n

Game Two’s DH decision is going to be a little trickier for the Phils against AJ Burnett.\u00a0 There appear to be three options, all with different pros and cons.\u00a0 One, is to just throw Francisco back out there in LF, even against the RH.\u00a0 This option would benefit the team defensively and allow Ibanez to DH again.\u00a0 The other two options would be to use one of the left-handed hitting bench players, Matt Stairs or Greg Dobbs.\u00a0 This would, obviously, put Ibanez back out in LF (a step down from Francisco, but has been pretty solid out there).\u00a0 Normally, I would say that Dobbs is the guy because, as I talked about on the podcast, Stairs, at this point in his career is really only useful in one situation–when you need a home run.\u00a0 And, obviously, if he’s in the starting lineup, you cannot choose the position in which he hits.\u00a0 Dobbs, on the other hand, is much more of a complete hitter, at this point, so it makes more sense for him to be in the lineup and get 3 or 4 at-bats.\u00a0 However, Stairs presents a very interesting option against Burnett because he is patient hitter who crushes fastballs ahead in the count into the netherregions of rightfield ballparks.\u00a0 And, in this stadium, against\u00a0a pitcher who sometimes struggles to get ahead and then leans on his fastball, even pop-ups off the bat of Stairs could be game-altering home runs.\u00a0 So, while under normal circumstances, I would say that Dobbs is\u00a0probably the better option than Stairs, I think that against AJ, in The Stadium, Stairs could be a pretty useful option,\u00a0if you want him over the defense of Francisco.<\/p>\n

On the other side, the Yankees\u00a0have been discussing\u00a0the possibility of\u00a0Hideki Matsui playing the field in The Bank.\u00a0\u00a0He\u00a0has \"matsui\"become a really bad outfielder, who can only play LF, which means that they would have to slide Johnny Damon (who might as well throw underhanded, at\u00a0this point) to rightfield because they can’t take him out of the lineup.\u00a0 Now, I can’t imagine that they make this move against a LH, Hamels, Lee, or Happ, but it is something to\u00a0consider against\u00a0RH Blanton, especially if Nick Swisher continues to be a complete non-factor at the plate.\u00a0 However, if they do make this move, expect the Phillies to run ALL OVER the Yankees outfield.\u00a0 Everyone in the lineup should score from second on any clean single to the outfield, and the first five guys in the lineup should have NO PROBLEM going first-to-third on any hit to rightfield.<\/p>\n

A quick diatribe on the dynamics of the DH, in general, in the World Series.\u00a0 I have made the case many times before that I believe that the NL teams have a pretty significant disadvantage in building an entire organization because of the lack of a DH spot on the big-league club.\u00a0 Just imagine if the Phils had a DH in the beginning of this decade.\u00a0 Ryan Howard would have been up in the majors two or three years earlier, and Jim Thome would have never been traded away.\u00a0<\/p>\n

However, I fully believe that, though it is a huge disadvantage when it comes to the architecture of the organization, it may actually be an advantage when it comes down to single game, or series of games.\u00a0 First of all, the NL pitchers have been hitting (and bunting) all\u00a0 year, while the AL pitcher may have had just a handful of interleague at-bats.\u00a0 And, on the other side, it’s not like the hitters inserted into the NL lineups as DHs have never hit before.\u00a0 Granted, they don’t have the David Ortiz’s or Edgar Martinez’s of the world as DH, but how big of a dropoff are the bottom of the NL orders with a DH compared to the bottom of the AL orders?<\/p>\n

Second of all, I think that it is different for the managers.\u00a0 I’m not one of those people who are\u00a0gonna sing and rant about the complexity of the double-switch.\u00a0 I hate hearing that.\u00a0 It is ridiculous to think that\u00a0any manager–or anyone with a working knowledge of the game, for that matter–would not be able to understand the strategy behind a double-switch.\u00a0 HOWEVER,\u00a0the working of the\u00a0bullpens are much\u00a0 <\/em>different when the pitcher is in the lineup.\u00a0 And, not that the AL managers don’t understand or that they can’t adapt.\u00a0\u00a0But, the big thing is that\u00a0managers, especially these days, have set their bullpens into defined roles.\u00a0 Guys know when to start warming up because they always seem to pitch the same inning when they come in.\u00a0 This is especially <\/em>true in the AL because you never have to hit for the pitcher, so you can manipulate your bullpen completely around the pitching aspect,\u00a0without\u00a0worrying where the pitcher’s spot is\u00a0in the next inning.\u00a0 Managers and, more importanly, pitchers get very used to these roles, but when you throw in the unpredictability of the NL-style game, you may have to use relievers\u00a0in ways other than the ways in which they have been used for 162 games.\u00a0 We will see how Mr. Girardi, the Northwestern alum (and he’ll remind us\u00a0of his “genius” at the drop of a hat),\u00a0handles\u00a0this wrench.<\/p>\n

\"girardi\"This leads us into the\u00a0battle of\u00a0wits into which the managers will find themselves.\u00a0 Personally, I think it’s a no-brainer as to who I would rather have managing my team right now.\u00a0 All “genius” aside, Charlie Manuel is a much, much<\/em>\u00a0better manager right now.\u00a0 The more decisions that have to be made in these close, pressure-packed games, the better for the Phillies.\u00a0 Let Girardi overmanage.\u00a0 In fact, I could go on, but I think Keith Law did it best, when he said, in this column<\/a>, that the #1 thing the Yankees could do to help them win this series is to “Hog-tie Joe Girardi and leave him in a clubhouse locker.”\u00a0 Charlie, on the other hand, has been making all the right moves with a much more tricky bullpen.\u00a0 When it comes down to flat-out decision-making, the Phillies have a HUGE advantage in this series, so we should hope for close, tense games that require a lot of (over-)managing.<\/p>\n

Okay, let’s talk experience, particularly playoff experience.\u00a0 At first blush, you would think that postseason experience would completely favor the Yankees.\u00a0 First of all, the Greatest Baseball Writer on the Planet gave us some interesting tidbits in this column<\/a>:<\/p>\n