{"id":416,"date":"2009-11-04T16:32:18","date_gmt":"2009-11-04T21:32:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.broadstreetbelievers.com\/?p=416"},"modified":"2010-01-04T15:42:06","modified_gmt":"2010-01-04T20:42:06","slug":"counting-outs-measuring-blood-pressures","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/broadstreetbelievers.com\/?p=416","title":{"rendered":"Counting Outs &#038; Measuring Blood Pressures"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" border=\"1\" vspace=\"5\" align=\"left\" width=\"432\" src=\"http:\/\/media.nj.com\/phillies_main\/photo\/pedro-martinez-phillies-world-series-2da1efa04af01e86_large.jpg\" hspace=\"5\" alt=\"pedro world series\" height=\"287\" style=\"width: 391px; height: 259px\" \/>Well, here we go again.\u00a0 After one <em>much<\/em>-needed day off (for the fans), we are right back to the heart attacks that are involved in being a fan of either of these World Series teams tonight with Game Six.\u00a0 Andy Pettitte, on short rest, versus Pedro Martinez in an epic game that has everything in place as &#8220;one for the ages.&#8221;\u00a0 I think it&#8217;s pretty safe to say that neither pitcher will be dominant, the way Cliff Lee and A.J. Burnett were in the first two games of the series.\u00a0 And, there are some absolutely red-hot hitters on both sides of the diamond right now, so it&#8217;s safe to say that there will be quite a few runs scored tonight, and the bullpens may be in play rather early.\u00a0 All of this adds up to a brutal, <em>brutal<\/em> game for the fans tonight.\u00a0 Think about these factors, and how they will probably take years of the lives of Phillies fans tonight:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u00a0Game 6 of the World Series<\/li>\n<li>At Yankee Stadium<\/li>\n<li>Do-or-die<\/li>\n<li>A 37-year old starting pitcher who probably won&#8217;t pitch more than 7 innings, no matter what<\/li>\n<li>A very, VERY shaky bullpen, consisting of exactly ZERO pitchers in which we can have a lot of confidence<\/li>\n<li>Lots of runs scored, so it should be close throughout, with no one ever out of it<\/li>\n<li>A potent Yankees lineup, featuring two first-ballot Hall of Famers who are red-hot, hitting 1st and 4th<\/li>\n<li>The best relief pitcher of all-time, who probably comes into play as early as the 7th inning<\/li>\n<li>Cole Hamels (who probably doesn&#8217;t even instill confidence in his own mother, at this point) scheduled as tomorrow&#8217;s starting pitcher, if we can even get there<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>So, let us think about what has to be done for this Phillies team to repeat as champs.\u00a0 As, I often like to do when watching a baseball game&#8211;especially in the playoffs&#8211;is to start &#8220;counting outs.&#8221;\u00a0 I talk about it all the time when I do live blogs because it&#8217;s usually reserved for once a game gets underway and you start to surmise who each manager is going to use his bullpen.\u00a0 But, with the Phils needing two wins to win the title, it might be relevant to start doing so already.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The Yankees,\u00a0in all intents and purposes,\u00a0need 21 outs.\u00a0 You can safely assume that Mariano Rivera is available for 2 innings&#8230;at least.\u00a0 I heard Girardi say that he&#8217;s looking at 35-40 pitches from Mo, which, he feels, does put him in play possibly as early as the middle of a Phillies&#8217; 7th inning.\u00a0 But, let&#8217;s say, for argument&#8217;s sake that Mo is going to give the Yanks a two-inning save to win the title.\u00a0 And, let&#8217;s also say that, chances are, the Phillies do not get to the best reliever of all-time.\u00a0 So, the Yankees need 21 outs from <em>either <\/em>Pettitte + middle relief OR Sabathia + middle relief.<\/p>\n<p>Doogan started this discussion in <a href=\"http:\/\/www.broadstreetbelievers.com\/?p=415\">yesterday&#8217;s post<\/a>, when he talked about how the Phillies were going to piece together the 54 outs they need to take this series.\u00a0 54 outs.\u00a0 That is what is staring at the Phils right now.\u00a0 And, to be honest, it&#8217;s hard to imagine that they have the horses to get 54 outs right now, period&#8211;let alone the daunting task of doing it in Yankee Stadium against the AL&#8217;s best lineup.<\/p>\n<p>But,\u00a0let&#8217;s do some math.\u00a0 <em>Absolute<\/em> best-case scenario over the next two nights from the starting pitchers\u00a0is about 40 of the 54\u00a0outs needed.\u00a0 Pedro will not go more than 7 innings tonight, and realistically, if you go into the 7th with\u00a0Hamels (or Happ or a combination of the two) in Game 7, you&#8217;ve gotta be pretty happy.\u00a0 Yes, Hamels can throw a gem, but he can also struggle to get out of the 4th.\u00a0 Getting 6+ from him is probably the most we can hope for.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>This leaves the Phillies, in the absolute best-case scenario,\u00a0needing 14 outs from the bullpen.\u00a0 It&#8217;s definitely realistic to <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" border=\"1\" vspace=\"5\" align=\"right\" width=\"316\" src=\"http:\/\/2.bp.blogspot.com\/_crPBCZok0RE\/SiaUaCNJlVI\/AAAAAAAAEyI\/XX6bC1uOc-w\/s400\/10.jpg\" hspace=\"5\" alt=\"eyre\" height=\"400\" \/>think that Scott Eyre\u00a0will get a big out against a left-hander in each of the two games.\u00a0 In fact, I could see him getting back-to-back hitters, since Posada and Tex are much better left-handed, so you could get a Damon-Tex combo or a Posada-Matsui combo, at some point in the later innings.\u00a0 So, let&#8217;s give Scott Eyre 3 outs.\u00a0 That leaves 11, with 6 of those outs, most likely,\u00a0having to be 9th-inning outs in Yankee Stadium.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>If we&#8217;re operating under the assumption that both starters have good outings, J.A. Happ is not going to be a long man (and if he is, his outs in that role will be counted above).\u00a0 Can we say that some combination of situational appearances from LH Happ and RH Durbin will get three more outs?\u00a0 I think that&#8217;s fair.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>This leaves <em>eight<\/em>.\u00a0 Eight big outs in the 8th or 9th innings in World Series games in Yankee Stadium.\u00a0 If all of the above goes as described above (and, again,\u00a0that&#8217;s a HUGE &#8220;if&#8221;), we need eight outs, in some combination, from Brad Lidge, Ryan Madson, Chan-Ho Park, Brett Myers, and dare-I-say-it Cliff Lee.\u00a0 That&#8217;s what this season may come down to&#8211;can that motley quintet of a head-case closer, a head-case former front-line starter, a former big-dollar starter turned budget reliever, a great setup man\u00a0who has never shown the guts to close, and an elite starting pitcher on TWO DAYS&#8217; REST get eight outs in the next two nights???<\/p>\n<p>Can they?<\/p>\n<p>I just may be-LEE-ve in miracles&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Well, here we go again.\u00a0 After one much-needed day off (for the fans), we are right back to the heart attacks that are involved in being a fan of either of these World Series teams tonight with Game Six.\u00a0 Andy &hellip; <a href=\"http:\/\/broadstreetbelievers.com\/?p=416\">Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[776,100,23,28,359,104,590,655,222,606,103,328,16,213,755,62],"class_list":["post-416","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-mlb","tag-2009-world-series","tag-andy-pettitte","tag-brad-lidge","tag-brett-myers","tag-cc-sabathia","tag-chad-durbin","tag-chan-ho-park","tag-cliff-lee","tag-cole-hamels","tag-ja-happ","tag-mariano-rivera","tag-pedro-martinez","tag-phillies","tag-ryan-madson","tag-scott-eyre","tag-yankees"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/broadstreetbelievers.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/416","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/broadstreetbelievers.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/broadstreetbelievers.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/broadstreetbelievers.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/broadstreetbelievers.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=416"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/broadstreetbelievers.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/416\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/broadstreetbelievers.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=416"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/broadstreetbelievers.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=416"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/broadstreetbelievers.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=416"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}