{"id":457,"date":"2010-01-16T14:34:44","date_gmt":"2010-01-16T19:34:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.broadstreetbelievers.com\/?p=457"},"modified":"2010-01-16T14:39:53","modified_gmt":"2010-01-16T19:39:53","slug":"bsb-nfl-playoff-challenge-divisional-round-preview","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/broadstreetbelievers.com\/?p=457","title":{"rendered":"BSB NFL Playoff Challenge: Divisional Round Preview"},"content":{"rendered":"

Nine contestents started the BSB NFL Playoff Challenge, but after the Wild Card Weekend’s action, only seven remain with a possibility of winning the whole thing.\u00a0 But, surprisingly, it is not the two with the lowest point totals who have been eliminated from title contention.\u00a0 As\u00a0we ran down earlier in the week in a post of all the scenarios<\/a> for the challenge, Alexi, O’Neill, and Scott, who had the three lowest point totals after the first round, are still alive to win the whole thing, if things break the right way for them.<\/p>\n

Anyway, it’s not just first place that we’re all playing for, so let’s preview the Divisional Round games and how they impact all nine entries.\u00a0\u00a0We have listed below the impacts of each game.<\/p>\n

Then,\u00a0we listed each entry and their best possible scores for this round (strictly by points, not in relation to others) and their best possible final scores.\u00a0 Then,\u00a0we put a figure called percent chance of winning, which\u00a0was calculated by the number of different scenarios that has that entry holding at least a share of the lead at the end.\u00a0 However, this number has to be taken with the caveat that it was done under the assumption that every game from here on out is 50-50 between the two victors (in other words, the assumption is that a New Orleans-Indy Super Bowl is just as likely as a Jets-Cards).\u00a0 Any given Sunday, right?<\/p>\n

We start with each game, listing, in order, which entries will be most affected.<\/p>\n

Arizona at New Orleans:<\/u><\/strong>
\n10 O’Neill (NO 11 – Zona 1)
\n9 Alexi\u00a0(NO 12 –\u00a0Zona 3)
\n8 David (NO 11 – Zona 3)
\n8 Josh (NO 11 – Zona 3)
\n7 Waters (NO 12 – Zona 5)
\n6 Ina (NO 8 – Zona 2)
\n6 Scott (NO 10 – Zona 4)
\n5 Bry (NO 7 –\u00a0Zona 2)
\n1 Doogan (NO 8 –\u00a0Zona 7)<\/p>\n

Baltimore at Indianapolis:<\/u><\/strong>
\n10 David (Indy 12 – B’more 2)
\n10 Scott (Indy 12 – B’more 2)
\n10 Josh (Indy 12 – B’more 2)
\n9 Doogan (Indy 12 – B’more 3)
\n9 O’Neill (Indy 12 – B’more 3)
\n7 Ina (Indy 11 – B’more 4)
\n7 Alexi (Indy 8 – B’more 1)
\n5 Bry (Indy 11 – B’more 6)
\n2 Waters (Indy 10 – B’more 8 )<\/p>\n

Dallas at Minnesota:<\/u><\/strong>
\n9 Bry (Dallas 10 – Minn 1)
\n7 Ina (Dallas 10 – Minn 3)
\n6 Doogan (Dallas 10 – Minn 4)
\n6 Waters (Dallas 7 – Minn 1)
\n5 Alexi (Minn 10 – Dallas 5)
\n3 Josh (Dallas 10 – Minn 7)
\n2 O’Neill (Minn 8 – Dallas 6)
\n1 David (Dallas 7 – Minn 6)
\n1 Scott (Minn 9 – Dallas 8 )<\/p>\n

N.Y. Jets at San Diego:<\/u><\/strong>
\n11 Ina (SD 12 – Jets 1)
\n10 Doogan (SD 11 – Jets 1)
\n10 Scott (SD 11 – Jets 1)
\n9 Alexi (SD 11 – Jets 2)
\n7 Waters (SD 11 – Jets 4)
\n7 Bry (SD 12 – Jets 5)
\n5 David (SD 10 – Jets 5)
\n5 O’Neill (SD 10 – Jets 5)
\n4 Josh (SD 9 – Jets 5)<\/p>\n

Waters:<\/u><\/strong>
\nFirst Place, 24 points<\/em><\/p>\n

Best Possible After Divisional Round:\u00a0 64
\nBest Possible Final Score:\u00a0 158<\/p>\n

Percent Chance of Winning:\u00a0 35%<\/p>\n

Thoughts:\u00a0
\nWaters not only won the Wild Card round, but he is has the most title chances.\u00a0 If New Orleans wins the Super Bowl, there is only one way for him not to win.\u00a0 If Baltimore wins the Super Bowl, there is no way he will not win.\u00a0 But, he does have one land mine to avoid out there–Minnesota.\u00a0 He gave them a 1, so if they advance, he could lose a lot of ground.\u00a0 With Baltimore at 8, he is actually much better off if they knock off the Colts, even though he has 10 points in the Colts.<\/p>\n

Bry:<\/u><\/strong>
\nSecond Place, 23 points<\/em><\/p>\n

Best Possible After Divisional Round:\u00a0 63
\nBest Possible Final Score:\u00a0 155<\/p>\n

Percent Chance of Winning:\u00a0 13%<\/p>\n

Thoughts:
\nBry’s title chances are almost exclusively limited to Super Bowl titles by either San Diego or Dallas with other factors.\u00a0 However, he does have a couple fluke scenarios where he would win with a Jets Super Bowl title.\u00a0 This week, Bry, like Waters, desperately needs to avoid a Minnesota victory.\u00a0 He also has New Orleans rather low, so even though he has nothing invested in the Cardinals, an Arizona victory might not be such a bad thing for his entry.\u00a0 He’s also looking for a B’more upset because he has them at 6.<\/p>\n

Doogan:<\/u><\/strong>
\nThird Place, 21 points<\/em><\/p>\n

Best Possible After Divisional Round:\u00a0 62
\nBest Possible Final Score:\u00a0 154<\/p>\n

Percent Chance of Winning:\u00a0 21%<\/p>\n

Thoughts:
\nAs we knew from the very beginning, Doogan’s chances are completely dependent on the Cardinals.\u00a0 There are only two possible scenarios of Doogan winning it all without a Cards win this week (a tie with Josh if Dallas\u00a0 and Indy meet in the SB after beating NO and SD in the Championship Games).\u00a0 So, Doogan’s fate lies in the Cardinals.<\/p>\n

Josh:<\/u><\/strong>
\nFourth Place, 20 points<\/em><\/p>\n

Best Possible After Divisional Round:\u00a0 62
\nBest Possible Final Score:\u00a0 156<\/p>\n

Percent Chance of Winning:\u00a0 21%<\/p>\n

Thoughts:
\nJosh is actually in a pretty good position to win this thing.\u00a0 He netted enough points in the first round and put enough faith in the top seeds, so that he will be the one standing if the top seeds advance.\u00a0 He\u00a0still has\u00a0his top four point totals still alive, and none of them play each other, so if it goes his way (which would only require the home teams to win except for Dallas), he\u00a0will have 9, 10, 11, and 12 left in the final four.<\/p>\n

Ina:<\/u><\/strong>
\nFifth Place (tie),\u00a017 points<\/em><\/p>\n

Best Possible After Divisional Round:\u00a0 58
\nBest Possible Final Score:\u00a0 150<\/p>\n

Percent Chance of Winning:\u00a0 0%<\/p>\n

Thoughts:
\nIna had a decent performance and will probably finish pretty high, but has been mathematically eliminated from title contention.\u00a0 She has the biggest possible single-game implication this week with her 12-team, SD, playing her 1-team, NYJ.\u00a0 She does have some big swings in the other games, as well, so this is a big week for Ina.<\/p>\n

David:<\/u><\/strong>
\nFifth Place (tie),\u00a017 points<\/em><\/p>\n

Best Possible After Divisional Round:\u00a0 57
\nBest Possible Final Score:\u00a0 151<\/p>\n

Percent Chance of Winning:\u00a0 0%<\/p>\n

Thoughts:
\nDavid, like Ina, is mathematically eliminated, even though he had a decent week.\u00a0 The big game for him this week is Indy (12) vs. B’more (2).\u00a0 David should be able to finish pretty high, but he will not be the first BSB NFL Playoff Challenge Champion.<\/p>\n

Scott:<\/u><\/strong>
\nSeventh Place,\u00a016 points<\/em><\/p>\n

Best Possible After Divisional Round:\u00a0 58
\nBest Possible Final Score:\u00a0 150<\/p>\n

Percent Chance of Winning:\u00a0 6%<\/p>\n

Thoughts:
\nScott has one of those well-rounded entries, where he’s in play with a variety of combinations.\u00a0 Scott, like Josh, has his top four point totals all still alive and not playing one another this week.\u00a0 Like Josh, if Dallas wins in Minnesota and the other home teams win, his final four will be his top four teams.<\/p>\n

O’Neill:<\/u><\/strong>
\nEighth Place,\u00a015 points<\/em><\/p>\n

Best Possible After Divisional Round:\u00a0 56
\nBest Possible Final Score:\u00a0 150<\/p>\n

Percent Chance of Winning:\u00a0 4%<\/p>\n

Thoughts:
\nO’Neill, despite a difficult first round, is still alive to win this thing.\u00a0 However, all his eggs have now been put in the Minnesota basket.\u00a0 If the Vikings fall this week, O’Neill’s title hopes will be gone.\u00a0 He also needs a New Orleans win this week because he has Arizona at 1.<\/p>\n

Alexi:<\/u><\/strong>
\nNinth Place,\u00a011 points<\/em><\/p>\n

Best Possible After Divisional Round:\u00a0 52
\nBest Possible Final Score:\u00a0 146<\/p>\n

Percent Chance of Winning:\u00a0 8.6%<\/p>\n

Thoughts:
\nAnd, in the most interesting situation, Alexi, who had only one point more than the lowest mathematically possible score in the first round, still has a chance to win the whole thing.\u00a0 And, the chances are not all that remote, either.\u00a0 And, what is even more interesting is that Alexi (a die-hard Ravens fan who obviously had no confidence in the home team) is now actually counting on the Ravens, the team to which he gave a 1.\u00a0 This is because he only had the Colts at 8, while seven other entries had them at 11 or 12 and the other had them 10.\u00a0 So, a Colts loss would be huge for Alexi’s title chances, even though it means his 1-team advances.\u00a0 He also needs Minnesota to go to the Super Bowl to win, and all his title scenarios but one have the Vikes winning it all.\u00a0 So, obviously, with a bad Wild Card performance, Alexi needs a lot to break his way, but it’s not at all out of the question that he will pull off a miraculous comeback to win this thing.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nine contestents started the BSB NFL Playoff Challenge, but after the Wild Card Weekend’s action, only seven remain with a possibility of winning the whole thing.\u00a0 But, surprisingly, it is not the two with the lowest point totals who have … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[944,3,1],"tags":[873],"class_list":["post-457","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-challenge","category-nfl","category-uncategorized","tag-2010-nfl-playoffs"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/broadstreetbelievers.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/457","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/broadstreetbelievers.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/broadstreetbelievers.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/broadstreetbelievers.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/broadstreetbelievers.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=457"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/broadstreetbelievers.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/457\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/broadstreetbelievers.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=457"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/broadstreetbelievers.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=457"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/broadstreetbelievers.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=457"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}