{"id":4746,"date":"2014-03-09T09:16:23","date_gmt":"2014-03-09T13:16:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.broadstreetbelievers.com\/?p=4746"},"modified":"2014-03-09T23:49:12","modified_gmt":"2014-03-10T03:49:12","slug":"2014-ctc-the-missouri-valley-36","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/broadstreetbelievers.com\/?p=4746","title":{"rendered":"2014 CTC: The Missouri Valley (FINAL)"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"Ahhh, Arch Madness!!!\u00a0 Gotta love it!\u00a0 Even without Creighton, this conference – and this conference tournament – is one of the jewels of college basketball.\u00a0 There was extra attention on this league all year (most of it unfairly negative) because of the amazing 31-0 Wichita State run.\u00a0 And, while it’s true that there aren’t any legitimate at-large contenders (other than Wichita, of course), it shouldn’t dampen the view of this league, as a whole.\u00a0 It still remains one of the toughest leagues in America to win on the road (another reason to be impressed by Wichita’s season), and there is a TON of defense played every night in this league.\u00a0 The depth is impressive and will be on display in the opening round, as there are few leagues in the country whose 7th-, 8th-, and 9th-place teams can rival Bradley, Drake, and Evansville.<\/p>\n

If Wichita enters Selection Sunday undefeated, 22 people will have gotten their MVC championship pick correct.\u00a0 If not, the MVC championship points will probably only go to one person, as #2 Indiana State, #3 Northern Iowa, and #4 Missouri State each have single supporters.\u00a0 #7 Bradley is the most popular sleeper pick to make a deep run.\u00a0 The last two years, this tournament was won with perfect brackets (which was AMAZING in 2012), with Mac holding the crown currently.\u00a0 Stri is the only one to ever win this league more than once.<\/p>\n

CHAMPIONSHIP (March 9th – 42 points)<\/h1>\n

#1 Wichita State vs #2 Indiana State<\/strong>
\nThe matchup that CBS was looking for going into this tournament.\u00a0 One of the few conference championships carried by the network and it is an undefeated team against a team that they might not actually roll over.\u00a0 Well, there’s a chance they don’t roll over them (I actually think they will, but whatever).\u00a0 Either way, there’s a lot of intrigue, and it’s probably our last chance to see Jake Odum play…unless you’re a fan of the Russian professional league or something of that caliber.<\/p>\n

Dave is the only one with IndSt taking this championship, so he could clear 56 points on the field if the Sycamores win here.\u00a0 22 people have Wichita, so unless Colton or Scoot have something against Dave, they are rooting for IndSt because they are the other two that didn’t pick WSU.\u00a0 If Wichita wins, PapaCim will take the MVC title outright.\u00a0 And, despite the 56 free points, Dave can only hope for a tie with PapaCim, who has\u00a0clinched at least a share of this title.<\/p>\n

Wichita State 83 – Indiana State 69<\/em>
\nAlright, let the Weed of Ridiculous Media Degradation of Wichita State begin, I can’t wait.\u00a0 We can all now sit back and hear all the WRONG reasons why this team is overrated.\u00a0 Their schedule sucks (131st overall, 96th non-conference…which isn’t atrocious).\u00a0 They haven’t beaten anyone (a road win over Saint Louis).\u00a0 The MVC isn’t that good (11th out of 31).\u00a0 Their numbers aren’t really that good (8th most efficient offense via KenPom, 10th most efficient defense – the only team in the nation in the top 10 in both offense and defense – and that is weighted for your opponents).\u00a0 And, ya know what?\u00a0 F*k advanced metrics.\u00a0 Let’s go to the most old-school stat there is – WINS AND LOSSES.\u00a0 The Shockers are 34-0, people.\u00a0 What would the Miami Heat’s record be against this schedule?\u00a0 34-0.\u00a0 Would they be “not that good” because they played this schedule.\u00a0 They didn’t lose a SINGLE GAME.\u00a0 Please, don’t get me wrong.\u00a0 I know Ronny Baker as Dwyane Wade and Cleanthony Early as LeBron James is ridiculous, but my point is that even the ’92 US Olympic team couldn’t have done better than 34-0, so let’s give them a #1-seed and see what happens.\u00a0 What a f*kin season that was capped off with a convincing win over a solid IndSt team.\u00a0 Just close your ears when people start talking about Wichita for the next 7 days and trust the Committee to do the right thing.<\/span><\/p>\n

22 people got this one right, so really this game was a big negative 42 for Colton, Dave, and Scoot.\u00a0 PapaCim completes a VERY impressive MVC campaign and gets to brag about being the King of Arch Madness for the next 12 months.
\n<\/span><\/p>\n

SEMIFINALS (March 8th – 28 points each)<\/h1>\n

#1 Wichita State vs #4 Missouri State<\/strong>
\nThe Shockers hammered Evansville in the quarters, while Mo State uglied up Illinois State for a 53-48 win.\u00a0 Missouri State is the team that had Wichita on the ropes this year – up 19 in the second half before losing in overtime.\u00a0 Now, the 32-0 Shockers are two wins away from entering the NCAA tournament unbeaten.<\/p>\n

Dave and Scoot are the only two with Missouri State here.\u00a0 Scoot has Mo State winning the whole thing.\u00a0 The other 23 people all have Wichita here with 22 of them picking the Shockers to win it all.<\/p>\n

Wichita State 67 – Missouri State 42<\/em>
\nWichita goes to 33-0 in a total rout of Mo State.\u00a0 The Bears lack of offense got them pretty far this year (well, I guess you can say their defense got them there, but whatever), but when you run into a team that can score on anyone, you better get a couple buckets yourself.\u00a0 Wichita’s defense held the Bears to 32% shooting and only committed 12 fouls.\u00a0 This was complete domination.\u00a0 Why is the fact that the Valley is down (actually, they’re just young – 9 of the top 10 scorers are non-seniors) make Wichita not good?\u00a0 They are crushing these guys.<\/span><\/p>\n

Everyone except Dave and Scoot picked up 28 points here.\u00a0 22 people kept alive their Wheatshocker championship pick.
\n<\/span><\/p>\n

#2 Indiana State vs #6 Southern Illinois<\/strong>
\nThe Sycamores took care of Loyola (IL) in the quarters on Friday, while SIU shocked 3rd-seeded Northern Iowa in the nightcap.\u00a0 Now, they will battle for a trip to the MVC Finals and a national CBS game.<\/p>\n

Alexi and Scoot have a nice upset pick available here.\u00a0 (Scoot’s Missouri State-Southern Illinois championship prediction is two games from becoming reality.\u00a0 If it does, that would be one for the CTC history books.)\u00a0 Surprisingly, only 7 people (Chris, Dave, Gersh, PapaCim, Stritts, Stumpf, WaTers) have Indiana State here, as most people had UNI.\u00a0 Dave is the only one with Indiana State winning this tournament.<\/p>\n

Indiana State 62 – Southern Illinois 59<\/em>
\nThis game was nip and tuck the entire way, with the Sycamores coming through late to beat a game SIU team.\u00a0 With sophomore sensation, Anthony Bean, among others, the future is still bright for the Salukis, as they (the team that put the Valley on the mid-major map) could return to Valley relevance.\u00a0 IndSt now gets their shot at Wichita in the finals.<\/span><\/p>\n

7 people took a nice 28 points here, including Dave, who still has a shot to steal the title with IndSt.
\n<\/span><\/p>\n

QUARTERFINALS (March 7th – 14 points each)<\/h1>\n

#1 Wichita State vs #9 Evansville<\/strong>
\nIf you don’t think Wichita State is an elite team, you are either not paying attention at all or you are paying too much attention to the national “experts.”\u00a0 Are they going to make the Final Four?\u00a0 I have no idea because anything can happen in a one-and-done tournament, but I would say that, with the possible <\/em>exceptions of Florida and Kansas, I would probably feel more comfortable saying that this team will be a Final Four team than any other team in the country.\u00a0 Why do we always discredit the “little guy?”\u00a0 That’s not rhetorical – that’s an actual question with an actual answer.\u00a0 The reasons I think that sometimes the mid-majors just aren’t as well-equipped as the big programs for a variety of reasons.\u00a0 One, they just don’t have elite, NBA-level talent like the big boys.\u00a0 Two, if they have elite coaches, they can’t keep them very long, so the best coaches don’t ever get to “establish” their system\/culture.\u00a0 Three, they just don’t have the size.\u00a0 Four, they don’t have all that much experience in the “big moments,” whereas the big boys have pressure-packed free throws on most nights during the season and probably have a couple guys on their rosters that have significant NCAA Tournament experience past the first weekend.\u00a0 Well, Wichita has 2 (maybe 3) NBA players on their roster.\u00a0 They have an elite <\/em>coach (who also seems like a complete asshole, but whatever).\u00a0 Wichita doesn’t have elite size, but they do rank right in the middle of the pack nationally, so they’re not incredibly small.\u00a0 And, finally,\u00a0in case you have selective small-school amnesia, this team was IN THE FINAL FOUR LAST YEAR – with most of that team back.\u00a0 Just ask Rick Pitino if they were legit – he said that the semifinal against Wichita was their toughest game of the whole tournament.\u00a0 This is a legitimate national title contender and don’t let any run-of-the-mill, big-boy-loving national “expert” convince you otherwise.\u00a0 (Annual CTC rant on the underappreciation of the little guy?\u00a0 Check.)\u00a0 Anyway, the Wheatshockers are three games away from entering the NCAA Tournament undefeated.\u00a0 Step One:\u00a0 Evansville, who beat #8 Drake on Thursday night.\u00a0 Not an easy game, but Wichita is too good to pull a Martelli and lose in the quarterfinals of your conference tournament after an undefeated regular season.<\/p>\n

Not surprisingly, everyone has Wichita winning here, including 22 people, who have them taking this title.<\/p>\n

Wichita State 80 – Evansville 58<\/em>
\nHo-hum, another easy victory for a Shockers team that never gets fazed.\u00a0 Early and Baker had 11 points apiece and the Shockers set an Arch Madness team record with 11 blocked shots.\u00a0 Super soph D.J. Balentine had his second 30-point game in as many nights, so Evansville is in good hands for the next two years.<\/span><\/p>\n

All 25 people hit this one.
\n<\/span><\/p>\n

#4 Missouri State vs #5 Illinois State<\/strong>
\nThe second game of the best quadruple-header of the first week pits two teams that were not supposed to be all that good this year.\u00a0 Illinois State, particularly, was picked towards the bottom of the MVC in the preseason prognostications after losing a TON of talent off of last year’s team.\u00a0 But, they rebounded from a lackluster noncon slate to play pretty well in conference and earn an upper-division finish.\u00a0 Missouri State’s claim to fame this year is that they held a 19-point second half lead over Wichita State.\u00a0 Well, they blew that lead, obviously, but played very well throughout conference play, especially at home, where they only lost that Wichita game and a 2-point game against Northern Iowa.\u00a0 If MoSt can get their game to travel, they could be a tough out – and might not blow a 19-point lead if they get it against Wichita next round.\u00a0 But, they better bring their A-game to this one because the Redbirds can play.<\/p>\n

This 4\/5 game is a toss-up by CTC standards as well.\u00a0 13 went with the mild upset of IllSt here, and 12 have MoSt (Alexi, Caleb, Chris, Dave, Gersh, J, Lynch, PapaCim, Scoot, Stri, Stumpf, Teddy, WaTers).\u00a0 And, while IllSt has slightly more support for this one game, MoSt is the more popular pick to do anything after this.\u00a0 No one has IllSt beating Wichita in the semis, but Dave and Scoot both have MoSt doing it.\u00a0 Scoot even has the Tigers winning the whole tournament.<\/p>\n

Missouri State 53 – Illinois State 48<\/em>
\nIt doesn’t get much uglier, but MoState is moving on with a 5-point win over IllSt in the second quarterfinal of the day in St. Louis.\u00a0 MoState shot 32% and still outshot the Redbirds, who were held to 31%.\u00a0 Ugh.\u00a0 The Bears better think about making a shot or two if they want to upset Wichita in the semis on Saturday.<\/span><\/p>\n

A dozen people got this one right, including Scoot, who had the Bears winning this tournament.\u00a0 Dave lost a finalist here.
\n<\/span><\/p>\n

#2 Indiana State vs #10 Loyola (IL)<\/strong>
\nMany people all year were touting the Sycamores as a potential bubble team, but I think that was just a weak attempt to actually help Wichita’s case for not being in a one-bid league.\u00a0 As much as I like Jake Odum’s game (and, I do LOVE his game), this Sycamore team is flawed and just didn’t do nearly <\/em>enough to make the case for at-large consideration.\u00a0 But, they do have the talent to win this tournament, so don’t count them out of that.\u00a0 They may have caught a break on Thursday night, when Loyola upset a talented Bradley team, setting up a more cushy quarterfinal for the Sycamores.\u00a0 But, you can’t ever get comfortable in Arch Madness – we learn that every year.<\/p>\n

No one has Loyola (IL) here, but GrossJr, GrossSr, and Lynch have already lost this game with Bradley.\u00a0 The other 22 people all have Indiana State here.\u00a0 Dave has the most at stake with the Sycamores, as he has them cutting down the nets on Sunday.\u00a0 Surprisingly, only 6 others (Chris, Gersh, PapaCim, Stritts, Stumpf, WaTers) have IndSt even going to the finals.<\/p>\n

Indiana State 75 – Loyola (IL) 62<\/em>
\nIt was a nice Arch Madness debut for Loyola (IL), but they are heading home after getting overmatched by the Sycamores in the first game of the evening session.\u00a0 The great Jake Odum led IndSt with 18.\u00a0 The Ramblers future star Milton Doyle had a rough ending to his incredible freshman season, scoring just 5 points on 1-7 from the floor.\u00a0 We’ll be hearing his name in future CTC’s, though, for sure.<\/span><\/p>\n

Everyone got this one right, including Dave, who kept alive his champion.
\n<\/span><\/p>\n

#3 Northern Iowa vs #6 Southern Illinois<\/strong>
\nMy favorite line of the college basketball season\u00a0is straight\u00a0from the now-epic rant<\/a> of SIU coach Barry Hinson.\u00a0\u00a0There were several fantastic lines in this one press conference, but\u00a0the best was\u00a0when he went off about his starting bigs going a combined 2-11 from the field in a loss to Murray State in December saying “My wife…MY WIFE!…can score more than two buckets on 11 shots because I know that my wife will at least shot-fake ONE TIME!”\u00a0 Simply amazing…that’s all I can say.\u00a0 But, Hinson’s team really turned it around after that (though, the schedule and development of young players had WAY more to do with it than some weird and embarrassing motivational tactic) and SIU, who wasn’t supposed to even be relevant in the MVC race, finished in 6th place and earned a coveted first-round bye (you see what happened to Bradley by falling out of bye position).\u00a0 The problem with the 6-seed is that the Salukis have to face #3 Northern Iowa, and the Panthers are one of the more underrated teams across the mid-major landscape.\u00a0 I literally have not heard anything about this team and the danger they pose, but they are really solid and are going to be a really tough out in this tournament.\u00a0 While, I love me some upsets, I am really rooting for Indiana State and UNI to both win on Friday because that semifinal will be great.<\/p>\n

Normally, the 3\/6 game is a tempting upset pick in the CTC, but this time only 6 people (Alexi, Chris, Dave, PapaCim, Scoot, Stumpf) were tempted enough to take it.\u00a0 Alexi and Scoot have the Salukis going to the finals.\u00a0 As for UNI, Colton is their biggest supporter, as he is the only one having them win this tournament.\u00a0 14 people have the Panthers reaching the finals, though, so they are strongly supported in CTC-land.<\/p>\n

Southern Illinois 63 – Northern Iowa 58<\/em>
\nThe Salukis pull off a pretty nice upset here to close out the Arch Madness quarterfinal day (one of the best days on the conference tournament schedule).\u00a0 SIU jumped on UNI right off the bat, built an 18-point lead, gave it all back and then some, and yet somehow still came through in the end to win it.\u00a0 Desmar Jackson went for 23 & 11 to end another season in disappointing fashion for the Panthers, who just can’t bring back the magic of Ali Farukmanesh…or whatever that guy’s name was.<\/span><\/p>\n

Only 6 people hit this solid upset play, including Alexi and Scoot, who keep alive a finalist.\u00a0 Colton lost his MVC champion here, while 14 others lost a finalist.
\n<\/span><\/p>\n

OPENING ROUND (March 6th – 7 points each)<\/h1>\n

#8 Drake vs #9 Evansville<\/strong>
\nA really interesting 8-9 matchup that will display surprisingly solid basketball considering it’s an Opening Round game in a first-week tournament.\u00a0 Drake, despite not being highly-regarded in the preseason prognostications, had a very good noncon, but couldn’t put it together in the league.\u00a0 The tempo-free numbers are very impressive for the Bulldogs, though.\u00a0 They are taking on an Evansville team that spent all year trying – unsuccessfully – to replace the graduated superstar Colt Ryan (who actually had several workouts for NBA teams and will probably get a cup of coffee at some point).\u00a0 The winner of this game will go out on Friday trying to shock the world by ending the undefeated Wichita dream.<\/p>\n

This 8\/9 game is, predictably, a total tossup in the CTC.\u00a0 13 people have #8 Drake, while 12 took #9 Evansville (Becks, Bry, Chris, Colton, Doogan, GrossJr, Lazarow, Lohse, Mac, Stri, Teddy, WaTers).\u00a0 It won’t have any impact other than these points, though, as everyone has Wichita going to the semis.<\/p>\n

Evansville 69 – Drake 61<\/em>
\nArch Madness got underway in Saint Louis on Thursday night with 9th-seeded Evansville taking out 8th-seeded Drake.\u00a0 The season ends for a Drake team that was actually beloved by the “advanced metrics” community, but never really showed that in, ya know, wins and losses.\u00a0 Evansville, who was led by a 30-point performance from their SUPER sophomore D.J. Balentine (remember that name), will be the first Arch Madness opponent of 31-0 Wichita State on Friday afternoon.<\/span><\/p>\n

While no one had either of these teams beating Wichita, it was still a somewhat important game in this 3.5x conference.\u00a0 A dozen people hit this minor upset worth 14 points.<\/span><\/p>\n

#7 Bradley vs #10 Loyola (IL)<\/strong>
\nBradley was picked 2nd behind the Shockers in the preseason polls, but got off to a terrible start to conference play (after a bad noncon) and couldn’t recover in time to save themselves from having to play in the Opening Round.\u00a0 But, they did get up to the 7-seed and, therefore, will get to officially welcome the MVC’s newest member, Loyola (IL) to Arch Madness.\u00a0 The Ramblers were a huge step down (and a questionable decision) as a replacement for the departed Creighton and lived up to the low expectations by a pretty safe last-place finish.\u00a0 But, they can end the disappointing Bradley season here in St. Louis and, if so, they will get a shot at #2 Indiana State in the quarters on Friday.<\/p>\n

6 people (Becks, Bry, Caleb, Lazarow, PapaCim, WaTers) took a shot at Loyola in an upset pick, though none of them have them going any further.\u00a0 Lynch has the most at stake here, as he has Bradley going all the way to the MVC championship.\u00a0 The two Grosses both have Bradley beating Indiana State in the quarters.<\/p>\n

Loyola (IL) 74 – Bradley 72<\/em>
\nMADNESS!!!\u00a0 Loyola completes the upset sweep on the first night of Arch Madness, as they win their first ever MVC tournament game by upsetting Bradley in thrilling fashion.\u00a0 The Ramblers, who finished last place in the regular season, actually led this game most of the way – and, at times, by\u00a0considerable margins – but it looked\u00a0like they were going to let it completely slip away when Walt Lemon hit two free throws with :05 seconds left to give Bradley a 72-71 lead.\u00a0 But, Milton Doyle (who played all 40 minutes with an amazing stat line – 19 points,\u00a04 rebounds,\u00a05 assists, 4\u00a0steals) hit a 3 at the buzzer to send the Ramblers to the quarterfinals.\u00a0 A very promising season for a Bradley team that was picked 2nd behind Wichita in the preseason was incredibly disappointing all year and now ends in devastating fashion.\u00a0 Loyola moves on to face a beatable (just sayin’) Indiana State team.\u00a0 Do we smell bracket-buster?<\/span><\/p>\n

6 people hit this nice, 28-point upset pick.\u00a0 Lynch’s bracket is already busted by Loyola, as he had Bradley in the finals.\u00a0 Both Grosses needed a Bradley win here because they had them beating Indiana State on Friday.<\/span><\/p>\n

CTC UPDATE<\/h1>\n

Championship Picks<\/strong><\/p>\n