I will hold off on a full assessment of the Birds until after the whole draft plays out, but, as you will be able to tell from where I ranked their performance last night, I am not exactly thrilled with the situation of last night.\u00a0 In short, I think a “reach” in the first round almost always equates to “bad pick.”\u00a0 And, I think this for the simplest of reasons.\u00a0 If you “reached,” that means that, by definition, that player would not have gone anywhere near that pick.\u00a0 So, why not either (a) take another player and pick the “reach” with your next pick or (b) if you are that scared of losing him, trade down a couple spots, pick up an additional pick, and still get the guy.\u00a0 Both seemed like options for the Birds last night, as it did not seem like teams were breaking down the doors to draft Marcus Smith, so they may have gotten him at #59.\u00a0 BUT…at the very least, there are multiple reports that the Vikings wanted to do what the Browns did and trade up to #22.\u00a0 That would have included the 40th pick, which is still probably safe for Smith there.\u00a0 And, you could have netted at least another 2nd from Minnesota.\u00a0 Anyway, like I said, I will wait until after the draft is complete to go in-depth with what Chip and Company have done, but they aren’t off to a blistering start, in my opinion…EVEN if Smith turns out to be very good.<\/p>\n
But, that is not what this post is about.\u00a0 I want to rank the First Round picks from last night based on the value they seem to have gotten from their spot.\u00a0 Obviously, Jadeveon Clowney is the best player in this draft, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that he was the best value.\u00a0 If we were ranking the best players, we could just look at the draft order.\u00a0 But, I wanted to\u00a0capture the return on whatever it cost the team to get the player – basically the difference between what you possessed yesterday and what you possess today.\u00a0\u00a0For instance, the Texans had the #1 pick yesterday, and today they have Clowney.\u00a0 The Bills had the #9 pick, got Sammy Watkins, but lost a 5th and next year’s #1.\u00a0 And, so on…\u00a0 So, here is where I rank the “value gained” with each pick yesterday.<\/p>\n
1. OAKLAND (5) – OLB Khalil Mack
\nThe Oakland Raiders made the best draft pick of the night.\u00a0 That is as surprising for me to write as it probably is for you to read, but I really believe it is true – and, it may not\u00a0be close.\u00a0 To get a guy with the ability of Mack at #5 is absolutely supreme value<\/p>\n
2. HOUSTON (1) – DE Jadeveon Clowney
\nTrust me, I weighed the fact that it cost them the #1 overall pick to acquire Mr. Clowney.\u00a0 But, I really think that this guy is a once-in-a-decade kind of a talent at a HIGH-impact position.<\/p>\n
3. CLEVELAND (8) – CB Justin Gilbert
\nI actually thought Gilbert was taken a little too high (and, I have NO idea why they felt they had to swap with Minnesota – sounds like they got sold a bill of goods from the Vikes claiming that another team wanted to trade with them for Gilbert).\u00a0 BUT…in the way we are judging it is what they had before and what they have now.\u00a0 And, they invested the #4 pick for the return of a starting CB, a 5th-round pick, AND next year’s #1 pick from Buffalo (which could EASILY be another top 10 pick).\u00a0 The Gilbert pick, alone, would have been middle of the pack – at best – but adding a potential Top-10\u00a0pick\u00a0in 2015 is spectacular.<\/p>\n
4. ST LOUIS (13) – DT Aaron Donald
\nI really thought Donald was a top-7 talent in this draft, so for the Rams to get him at #13 is pretty great.\u00a0 They have a pretty spectacular D-line right now.\u00a0 The best division in football got even better Thursday night.<\/p>\n
5. GREEN BAY (21) – S Ha Ha Clinton-Dix
\nMy best-case Eagles scenario was one pick from becoming reality, when the Packers swooped in and – as they always do – maximized the value of their draft position.\u00a0 There are certain teams that crush this process every single year.\u00a0 If Green Bay isn’t the best drafting team in the league they are second to…<\/p>\n
6. BALTIMORE (17) – ILB C.J. Mosely
\nHo-hum, another Ravens draft, another stud at a need position falls into their laps.\u00a0 This is getting old fast…<\/p>\n
7. CINCINNATI (24) – CB Darqueze Dennard
\nHow about sitting at #24 and getting potentially the best player at your top position of need?\u00a0 That’s what the Bengals did – much to the dismay of this Eagles fan.<\/p>\n
8. TAMPA BAY (7) – WR Mike Evans
\nThis pick was set up from the beginning, and it could not have gone better for the Bucs.\u00a0 They add a potential superstar at a need position without moving.\u00a0 Defensive coordinators are getting heartburn having to deal with the sheer size of the two wideouts in Tampa right now.\u00a0 And, Josh McCown is well-versed in having two huge receivers to throw to.<\/p>\n
9. ATLANTA (6) – OL Jake Matthews
\nThe Falcons stayed put and used their #6 pick on an O-tackle that will anchor that line for a dozen years.<\/p>\n
10. ST LOUIS (2) – OL Greg Robinson
\nThe second Rams pick that made my “elite” status.\u00a0 I like Robinson better and think they made the right pick, but they are slightly behind the Falcons pick just because of the difference in pick value.<\/p>\n
11. NEW ORLEANS (20) – WR Brandin Cooks
\nThe only reason this falls into the next category is because WR is so incredibly deep.\u00a0 But, Cooks is a great fit in New Orleans and might be the front-runner for 2014 Offensive Rookie of the Year.<\/p>\n
12. MINNESOTA (32) – QB Teddy Bridgewater 13. CLEVELAND (22) – QB Johnny Manziel 14. NEW YORK JETS (18) – S Calvin Pryor 15. NEW YORK GIANTS (12) – WR Odell Beckham, Jr. 16. DALLAS (16) – OL Zack Martin 17. PITTSBURGH (15) – OLB Ryan Shazier 18. TENNESSEE (11) – OL Taylor Lewan 19. BUFFALO (4) – WR Sammy Watkins 20. CHICAGO (14) – CB Kyle Fuller 21. DENVER (31) – CB Bradley Roby 22. NEW ENGLAND (29) – DT Dominique Easley 23. KANSAS CITY (23) – DE Dee Ford 24. SAN DIEGO (25) – CB Jason Verrett 25. ARIZONA (27) – S Deone Bucannon 26. SAN FRANCISCO (30) – S Jimmie Ward 27. MINNESOTA (9) – OLB Anthony Barr 28. MIAMI (19) – OL Ju’wain James 29. CAROLINA (28) – WR Calvin Benjamin 30. JACKSONVILLE (3) – QB Blake Bortles 31. PHILADELPHIA (26) – DE Marcus Smith 32. DETROIT (10) – TE Eric Ebron I will hold off on a full assessment of the Birds until after the whole draft plays out, but, as you will be able to tell from where I ranked their performance last night, I am not exactly thrilled with … Continue reading
\nYou’ll notice that this is the first QB pick that I have on this list.\u00a0 And, I am actually surprised that I have it this high.\u00a0 But, I really think that Minnesota did a great job jumping back into the 1st to get someone who very well could be the best QB in the past two drafts.\u00a0 As of two months ago, it would have been laughable to suggest that Bridgewater might not be in the Top 5.\u00a0 Now, Minnesota gets him at #32 – which, not unimportantly, is the last pick of the draft that comes with a 5th-year option – a perk that could pay offer massively<\/em> if Bridgewater become a viable starting quarterback.<\/p>\n
\nEven if this is a lottery ticket, the chance of hitting the jackpot on a quarterback at #22 gives this pick a lot of value…and, I don’t even think he’s gonna be good.\u00a0 Still really nice spot to take a flyer on a potential superstar – in multiple ways.<\/p>\n
\nThe Jets stood pat at #18 and got a big-hitting safety that plays the run awfully well.\u00a0 His coverage skills may be lacking, but in Ryan’s blitz-heavy defense, he has the potential to be an incredible havoc-creating boomer.<\/p>\n
\nI have heard people not liking this pick.\u00a0 While it is the second-best pick in the city, I actually think it’s a good one.\u00a0 What else should they have done here?\u00a0 I probably would have gone Aaron Donald, but Stri convinced me that he wasn’t a scheme fit for the Giants D.\u00a0 What about Zack Martin?\u00a0 Definitely would have been okay because he will be productive and versatile, but he’s not going to be a star.\u00a0 I think Beckham could be.\u00a0 He also seems like the perfect fit for the personal demands of a Coughlin-coached team.\u00a0 I think five years from now, people might look back on this pick with reverance.\u00a0 The only knock against it is the same thing against Cooks – this was a pretty high price for a WR in a draft with so many of them.<\/p>\n
\nI am not as high on Martin as others\u00a0because he doesn’t seem to have the Pro Bowl upside.\u00a0 He’s versatile and durable, though, and I applaud Jerry Jones for a second straight year with a boringly logical first round performance.<\/p>\n
\nI hadn’t heard much about Shazier coming into the draft, but all the reviews seem to say that he’s the perfect fit in Dick LeBeau’s system.\u00a0 And, if anyone can pick LBs and make them stars it’s that Hall of Fame coordinator.<\/p>\nSome Value<\/h2>\n
\nMaybe the least “sexy” pick of the draft could return solid value if Lewan has a long, solid career on an O-line that needs stability.<\/p>\n
\nThe Bills may have drafted the best player in the draft…but it sure as hell cost them.\u00a0 A 5th-rounder this year and next year’s #1?!?\u00a0 That is a big gamble on a guy at a position they aren’t exactly desperate to fill (they might end up cutting Stevie Johnson because of this pick).\u00a0 This should probably be lower, but they did add Sammy Watkins…<\/p>\n
\nIt is strange for me to rank this pick so low because I really like Fuller and really wanted him for the Eagles at #22.\u00a0 But, I just think that he screams the quintessential “guy that was underrated for so long that he has now become overrated.”\u00a0 That being said, I think the Bears will be very happy with Fuller.<\/p>\n
\nIf you can add an athlete the caliber of Roby with the 31st pick, you have to be happy.\u00a0 This may actually be low for this pick, I just think there’s a big downside here.<\/p>\n
\nI hear people not liking this pick, but I’m not sure what you expect to get at #29.\u00a0 Easley – if healthy – might be the best interior lineman in the draft.\u00a0 I think the Pats did pretty well here to take a chance on potential stud at the end of the first round.\u00a0 But, then again, if anyone has experience picking at the end of the first round, it’s the mighty Pats.<\/p>\n
\nI don’t mind the Ford pick, though I probably would have gone WR here.\u00a0 But, as I have been saying the whole time, WR is really deep, so if I’m holding that against teams that did take a WR, I guess I can’t hold it against teams that don’t.<\/p>\n
\nA bit undersized in a division with a lot of big WRs, Verrett may only be a nickle-corner his whole career.\u00a0 A fact that, 5-10 years ago, would have made this pick an incredible reach, isn’t such a bad thing anymore.\u00a0 We may have arrived at a time where a really good nickle corner may actually be worth a first-round pick…which is shocking to even think.<\/p>\n
\nNot sure why everyone said that safety was such a huge need for the Cards.\u00a0 From an outside perspective, I would think that they could really use help on the offensive side more than a very good defensive unit.\u00a0 And, didn’t they just lose Andre Roberts, too?\u00a0 I guess I’m probably wrong here because everyone seems to applaud this pick, but if it were me, why not a WR here?\u00a0 It’s not like Larry Fitzgerald is on the right side of that career mountain.\u00a0 Whatever…<\/p>\n
\nI guess I’m an easy grader because 26 of the 32 teams I felt got at least adequate value for their first-round investments.\u00a0 I think San Fran got some depth here in their secondary, which is not a bad thing for a 30th pick.<\/p>\nPoor Value<\/h2>\n
\nI love taking a chance on a superstar in the late First Round.\u00a0 I HATE it in the early First Round.\u00a0 And, that’s what Minnesota did.\u00a0 They took a chance on Barr being a stud when it is somewhat feasible to see him out of the league in 3-4 years.\u00a0 Their only saving grace is that they picked up a 5th by moving down a spot.<\/p>\n
\nHey, they took the best guy left at a position of dire need.\u00a0 And, that is the price you pay for a poorly-run organization.\u00a0 But, that doesn’t mean we should give them a pass and ignore the fact that they took a guy at #19 that probably should have been no higher than a mid-30’s pick…at BEST.<\/p>\n
\nEverything I said about the Miami pick can also apply to Carolina here, except that they may not have even gotten the best player left at a position of dire need.\u00a0 I guess the saving grace is that they really needed a WR and got one.\u00a0 The lesson here – it doesn’t pay to go into the draft “really needing” anything.\u00a0 It leads to really poor draft choices.<\/p>\n
\nI want to absolutely CRUSH them for this pick, but I can’t totally go that far because the only way to win in this league is by having a QB, and they don’t.\u00a0 So, it’s hard to fault them too <\/em>much for taking the guy they thought was best, who almost certainly wouldn’t have been there at #35.\u00a0 That being said, I don’t think I’d have the stones to pull the trigger on a shaky QB prospect with Khalil Mack and Sammy Watkins sitting on the board.\u00a0 I think their biggest mistake is not finding a trade partner to come up and get Watkins.\u00a0 It seems to me that is something they could have done.\u00a0 I mean even if they took the EXACT same offer that Buffalo gave Cleveland to go to #4, I would be praising them for grabbing next year’s #1.\u00a0 And, they still probably would have had Bortles.\u00a0 Actually, the more I think about it – why didn’t they do that?!?!?<\/p>\nAwful Value<\/h2>\n
\nI’ll be brief here, but what I don’t understand is how they could take a player with a 3rd- or 4th-round grade at #26.\u00a0 At the very least, trade down.\u00a0 And, we KNOW that they could have.\u00a0 They took Cleveland’s offer to come up and get Manziel and not Minnesota’s (which obviously would have been more and still would have netted them Smith).\u00a0 Is it because they thought Dennard would still be there?\u00a0 I hope not because I know nothing and knew that he wouldn’t get past Cincy at #24.\u00a0 This is frustrating…even if he’s good.\u00a0 In Chip We Trust…hey, at least it wasn’t the dumbest<\/span> pick of the night.<\/p>\n
\nThe new Lions…same as the old Lions.\u00a0 As good as the Ravens and Packers are on draft day – that’s how bad the Jags and Lions are.\u00a0 And, it’s not coincidence that the former win titles and the latter keep getting high picks to screw up.\u00a0 This one made absolutely no sense for a million reasons, most notably that the player isn’t that good, they don’t exactly need more guys running patterns, and that they had solid fits at need positions like Taylor Lewan, Kyle Fuller,\u00a0and Calvin Pryor still on the board.\u00a0 Just a god-awful pick all-around.\u00a0 Nice work, Lions, nice work.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"