{"id":578,"date":"2010-08-24T17:37:59","date_gmt":"2010-08-24T21:37:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.broadstreetbelievers.com\/?p=578"},"modified":"2010-08-24T17:51:14","modified_gmt":"2010-08-24T21:51:14","slug":"tuesdays-top-twelve-the-contenders","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/broadstreetbelievers.com\/?p=578","title":{"rendered":"Tuesday’s Top Twelve: The Contenders"},"content":{"rendered":"

This is one of my favorite (and maybe the only) regular Top Twelves.\u00a0 About this time in the baseball season, it’s interesting to start thinking about (a) the races and (b) what teams are best suited for fall baseball, as opposed to spring or summer baseball–and I’m not talking about the weather here.\u00a0 Some teams are just flat-out better suited for postseason baseball than they are for regular season baseball.\u00a0 Just look at all those Braves teams that won 14 straight NL Easts, but only 1 World Series.\u00a0 That was not a fluke, it was because they had a deep, consistent pitching staff that feasted on mediocre and bad teams, but weren’t always equipped to go through the best offenses.\u00a0 They also\u00a0had just mediocre bullpens, which can really hurt you in postseason series because one blown game could mean your season.<\/p>\n

That being said, it’s time to see who has, in my opinion, the best chance to win the 2010 World Series.\u00a0 I honestly think we can narrow the field to a dozen (6 from each league), without leaving anyone out who truly has a shot–with all apologies to the Rockies, Dodgers, and Tigers.\u00a0 Oh, and the Mets are not on this list, in case you were wondering.<\/p>\n

12). Chicago White Sox.<\/strong>\u00a0 The ChiSox are currently 4.5 games behind the Twins in the AL Central, which is probably their only chance to get in, considering they are 9.5 games out of the wild card.\u00a0 They are on this list because it’s not unreasonable to think that they can catch the Twins in the Central to make the playoffs.\u00a0 And, as the 2006 Cardinals showed us, you just have to get in and anything can happen.\u00a0 It was a hard call\u00a0between 11 and 12–mainly because I don’t think either really have a shot–but I went with these Sox as having the longest odds just because I don’t really see them built for either the regular season or the postseason.\u00a0 Their offense is just okay, and they are counting on guys like Gavin Floyd and Freddy Garcia.\u00a0 As\u00a0a Phillies fan, you can probably guess my level of trust in those two guys.<\/p>\n

11). Boston Red Sox.<\/strong>\u00a0 Look, the Red Sox may just be the third best team in baseball, despite all their injuries.\u00a0 But, it doesn’t matter if the first two are in your division.\u00a0 The Sox are a real longshot to even make the playoffs right now, but if they can put it together, they do have the talent to make a run at a title (though, that run is much less likely now with the season-ending injury to Youkilius).\u00a0 And, they are only 5.5 games behind the Yanks and Rays–and they only have to catch one of them to get in, most likely.\u00a0 So, despite their incredibly long odds to even make the playoffs, they are still on the list of possible contenders.\u00a0 Consider this:\u00a0 they have been ravaged with injuries and have played a combined 20+ games against the two best teams in baseball, but they are still only one-half game behind the Twins and a full game ahead <\/em>of the Rangers in the standings.\u00a0 Plus, there is always some fight left in this team.<\/p>\n

10). San Francisco Giants.<\/strong>\u00a0 Now, we’re into the ten teams that really have legitimate shots at this year’s World Series title.\u00a0 The Giants do have a shot to win this year’s World Series.\u00a0 They are only one game back in the wild card race, and they have a pitching staff built beautifully for the postseason, if they are running on all cylinders.\u00a0 Lincecum, Cain, and Sanchez would be a devastating trio in any postseason series, plus they probably have the best closer in baseball that no one’s ever heard of, in Brian Wilson.\u00a0 Honestly, I have them as the longest shot among contenders from the NL because I have no trust in their offense to score any runs when needed, but I certainly wouldn’t want to face them in a playoff series.\u00a0 All of this, of course, is completely dependent upon Tim Lincecum actually pitching like Tim Lincecum and not Tim Belcher.<\/p>\n

9). Minnesota Twins.<\/strong>\u00a0 Don’t get me wrong,\u00a0I think the Twins have an excellent team,\u00a0but there are a couple reasons why I have them as low on this list as I do.\u00a0 First of all,\u00a0it’s still unclear whether or not Justin Morneau will really get back to 100% this year.\u00a0 Without a fully-healthy Morneau, this offense is just a bit light in the middle.\u00a0 Yes, Joe Mauer is absolutely blistering hot, but, as you saw last\u00a0year, they need a little bit more than just\u00a0Mauer to really make any noise.\u00a0\u00a0The second big reason\u00a0is that the front of their rotation\u00a0is not exactly Koufax and Drysdale.\u00a0 Francisco Liriano\u00a0has become a really good pitcher and\u00a0is clearly their ace, but he is a distant fourth among the likely four aces that will be in the AL playoffs (Sabathia, Price, and Lee).\u00a0 Plus, after Liriano, there is a pretty big dropoff to the likes of Kevin\u00a0Slowey (might not be healthy) or Scott Baker or even Carl\u00a0Pavano.\u00a0 That means that\u00a0the Twins might\u00a0not have a pitching advantage in any playoff game they enter all October.\u00a0 And, finally, think about the road for\u00a0Minnesota.\u00a0 They\u00a0will\u00a0most likely have to go through both the Yankees and the Rays in order to get to the World Series.\u00a0 And, unless they beat out the Rangers, <\/strong>they might have to play that first 5-game series without home-field advantage.\u00a0 It’s a long road for the Twins.<\/p>\n

8). Cincinnati Reds.<\/strong>\u00a0 Yes, the Reds have a 2.5 game lead on the Cardinals in the NL Central, and a 1.5 game lead over the Phillies, should they need the wild card to get in.\u00a0\u00a0So, chances are the Reds will be playing in the postseason for the first time in a\u00a0very <\/em>long time.\u00a0 However, I really don’t see them built to win in October.\u00a0\u00a0Harang and\u00a0Arroyo are nice pitchers for\u00a025-30 regular season starts.\u00a0 They\u00a0keep\u00a0you in every game, but are they really stoppers?\u00a0 Johnny Cueto is a nice piece, but Mike Leake looks like he’s completely hit the wall (not surprising since he didn’t spend a single season in the minor leagues).\u00a0 Joey Votto is a dark horse MVP candidate, but the rest of the offense is mediocre, and Votto hasn’t proven that he can do it when it matters.\u00a0 It hurts because I root\u00a0for the Reds (great fans in a good baseball city that are mired in a long stretch of futility right now), but I have to say that they are more of a longshot than a couple teams they are looking down upon in the standings, including a team in their own division…<\/p>\n

7). St. Louis Cardinals.<\/strong>\u00a0 This team is dangerous.\u00a0 They are on the outside looking in on the playoff picture, as we sit today, and, to be honest with you, I don’t have a ton of confidence that they’ll get there, but if they do, they’re gonna be a tough out–that’s for sure.\u00a0 With Wainwright, Carpenter, and Garcia, they are built for the postseason.\u00a0 Plus, they are seasoned on how to play in big games, and they have one of the game’s best managers in Tony LaRussa.\u00a0 Oh, and by the way, they have the best player on the planet sitting in the middle of their order.<\/p>\n

6). Texas Rangers.<\/strong>\u00a0 If you’re a Rangers fan, how thankful are you that Cliff Lee fell into your lap?\u00a0 He is the only saving grace for the World Series chances of the Texas Rangers.\u00a0 Again, don’t get me wrong here, I think the Rangers have a really solid team, top-to-bottom.\u00a0 They have a very potent lineup with the likes of Hamilton and Vlad and the eternally underrated Michael Young and Ian Kinsler.\u00a0 They have solid pitching even after Lee in Colby Lewis and C.J. Wilson.\u00a0 And, they have a decent bullpen bolstered by probably AL Rookie of the Year, Neftali Feliz as the closer.\u00a0 But, just like the Twins, they are going to, almost assuredly, have to beat both the Yankees and the Rays in the AL playoffs just to get to the World Series.\u00a0 I’m not saying this can’t happen; I’m just saying that if I were a betting man, I wouldn’t exactly put the farm on this inexperienced team winning 7 playoff games against the beasts of the AL East–even with the great Cliff Lee.\u00a0 Plus, you can throw on the Angels theory from the past couple of seasons.\u00a0 The Rangers probably won’t play a meaningful game for a good three weeks before the playoff start because they lead the division by so many games, so who knows if they’ll be on top of their game?\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

5). San Diego Padres.<\/strong>\u00a0 I really struggled with #4 and 5.\u00a0 I am going to go with the Padres here at #5 just because I’m not totally sold on the depth of their talent.\u00a0 Yes, they have the best record in the National League (third best in all of baseball), and yes they are well on their way to homefield advantage throughout the playoffs (which is big for a team so perfectly suited for its ballpark), but how much faith can you possibly have in a team that will probably be throwing Jon Garland out there in Game One.\u00a0 I like Latos and Richard behind Garland, but they are just kids.\u00a0 Plus, they have already given more than 250 at bats to the following marginal MLers:\u00a0 Wil Venable, Chase Headley, Tony Gwynn, Jr., and a couple of Hairstons.\u00a0 Yes, Adrian Gonzalez is an absolute monster and David Eckstein is a\u00a0proven winner (albeit incredibly overrated),\u00a0but this team is still not immensely talented.\u00a0 Right?\u00a0 If it were not for the gigantic additions of Miguel Tejada and Ryan Ludwick recently, I would have them a lot lower.\u00a0 Well, that and the fact that they have, by far, the best bullpen in baseball.\u00a0 This might actually be the best bullpen baseball has seen since the Wetteland-Rivera days of the mid-90’s Yankees.\u00a0 And, bullpens win in October.\u00a0 But, we’ll see.<\/p>\n

4).\u00a0Atlanta Braves.<\/strong>\u00a0 The Bravos have been playing some really good baseball lately, and they added a proven hitter in Derek Lee to address their biggest problem–run production at firstbase.\u00a0 They also have a fantastic pitching staff, led by the immensely underrated Tim Hudson and Jair Jurrjens, the recently blossoming star in Tommy Hanson, and the ole veteran who’s been there before in Derek Lowe.\u00a0 However, despite all of this, they do have some question marks.\u00a0 Chipper is done for the year, so they really don’t have a big-time run producer (unless Lee can provide that or someone like Brian McCann or Jason Heyward can step up and fill the void).\u00a0 Plus, they also do not exactly play the best defense in the league with guys like Melky Cabrera, Martin Prado,\u00a0and Alex Gonzalez in key positions.\u00a0 Billy Wagner has had a really nice year, but he might be tiring down the stretch, as he has struggled as of late.\u00a0 The one reason, however, that I have the Braves ahead of San Diego in this order is because of the Bobby Cox Factor.\u00a0 It is the swan song for one of the best managers of a generation, and you never know what kind of motivation that will provide.<\/p>\n

3). Philadelphia Phillies.<\/strong>\u00a0 I have been accused of being a homer before, and I’m sure I will be accused of it again, but I can assure you that I tried as hard as I could to find a reason NOT to make the Phillies the odds-on favorites to win the National League for the third straight year…but I couldn’t.\u00a0 This team is loaded again.\u00a0 There are two big question marks (health and the bullpen), but all in all, this team has to be considered the favorite to win a third straight pennant, and possibly a second World Series in three years.\u00a0 In 2008, this team won the World Series with Cole Hamels as their ace.\u00a0 Cole Hamels is pitching just as well as he did then, and he is their #3.\u00a0 In 2008, this team won the World Series with Pedro Feliz as its thirdbaseman.\u00a0 Now, it’s the amazing Placido Polanco.\u00a0 Everything else is the same.\u00a0 Throw in the fact that this team is on their way to 90 wins having only had their starting lineup play together SEVEN TIMES!\u00a0 Ya, that’s right SEVEN.\u00a0 Six of the 8 everyday players have spent extended time on the DL this year.\u00a0 The bullpen has\u00a0 been in shambles, due to major injuries and ineffectiveness, yet this team is still only 2.5 games out of the NL East title and is leading the wild card race.\u00a0 Oh, and to bolster the argument even more, they happen to have added Roy Oswalt to be their NUMBER TWO STARTER.\u00a0 Plus, they play in the National League, so instead of having to go through the Yankees and Rays to get to the World Series, they will probably be facing some combination of the Padres, Reds, Braves, Giants, or Cardinals.\u00a0 If the season ended today, they would face San Diego in the NLDS and then the winner of the Braves-Reds in the NLCS.\u00a0 Not exactly a “tough road.”\u00a0 The question marks will persist, however, about the bullpen and the overall health of guys like Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, and Ryan Howard, but it is hard to argue (damn near impossible) that this is the National League team that is best-equipped for a championship run.<\/p>\n

2). New York Yankees.<\/strong>\u00a0 The defending champs have brought back the team that dominated both the 2009 regular season and the 2009 postseason to give it another run.\u00a0 And, they are set up to do just that.\u00a0 They still have CC Sabathia at the front of the rotation, and they still have Mariano Rivera to close out games.\u00a0 They still have Mr. Clutch in Derek Jeter and the most talented player of our generation in Alex Rodriguez.\u00a0 They have seen breakout seasons from guys like Robinson Cano and Phil Hughes.\u00a0 They have the best infield ever assembled and the best closer to ever live.\u00a0 This team is, well, pretty good.\u00a0 However, they are not the BSB pick for the favorites to win it all this year.\u00a0 And, there are a couple of reasons for that–most of which have to do with the flaws of this team, rather than the overall dominance of the other.\u00a0 The Bridge to Mariano is shaky again this year.\u00a0 Joba is just not that good and the rest of the ‘pen is a bit suspect.\u00a0 But, they can get around that, if some other things were in place.\u00a0 But, Father Time is also looking like he may have come calling.\u00a0 Derek Jeter is starting to actually look old (something I thought I’d never see).\u00a0 A-Rod is still very good, but no longer great.\u00a0 Mark Teixeira has had a miserable season.\u00a0 Curtis Granderson (the big offseason pickup) looks completely lost against left-handers (and, by the way, the aces on the other three likely AL playoff teams are all left-handed–Lee, Liriano, Price).\u00a0 Jorge Posada doesn’t look like he can really catch anymore.\u00a0 And, the big acquisition of Lance Berkman looks like a big bust.\u00a0 All that being said, this team is still a fantastic collection of baseball talent and will be a very tough out.\u00a0 I just don’t see them being the odds-on favorites right now.\u00a0 But, have no fear Yankees fans, not winning the World Series this year will basically just assure the fact that Cliff Lee and Carl Crawford will be wearing pinstripes next year and everyone else will be playing for second place.<\/p>\n

1). Tampa Bay Rays.<\/strong>\u00a0 Yes, all that young talent that shocked us all in 2008 is a little bit older and a whole lot better.\u00a0 David Price has taken his rightful place at the top of one of the best rotations in the game.\u00a0 Evan Longoria is leading an offense that just doesn’t stop hitting all the way up and down the lineup.\u00a0 Jason Bartlett leads one of the most athletically-gifted defenses in baseball.\u00a0 They still have question marks in the bullpen, but expect rookie Jeremy Hellickson to play the role of 2008 David Price out in the ‘pen this offseason because, well, why not?\u00a0 When you have 5 immensely talented pitchers, just throw your young stud out in the bullpen.\u00a0 This team is young and good, but the difference this year is that they’re probably a lot more hungry.\u00a0 They tasted the glory in 2008 and then the pain in 2009.\u00a0 And, looking ahead, they know that Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena are probably long-gone from this team, so there is a sense of urgency.\u00a0 Right now, I think it’s pretty clear that the Tampa Bay Rays are the favorites to win the 2010 World Series.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This is one of my favorite (and maybe the only) regular Top Twelves.\u00a0 About this time in the baseball season, it’s interesting to start thinking about (a) the races and (b) what teams are best suited for fall baseball, as … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13,450],"tags":[568,83,177,204,16,745,319,18,695,67,381,62],"class_list":["post-578","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-mlb","category-top-twelve","tag-braves","tag-cardinals","tag-giants","tag-padres","tag-phillies","tag-rangers","tag-rays","tag-red-sox","tag-reds","tag-twins","tag-white-sox","tag-yankees"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/broadstreetbelievers.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/578","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/broadstreetbelievers.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/broadstreetbelievers.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/broadstreetbelievers.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/broadstreetbelievers.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=578"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/broadstreetbelievers.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/578\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/broadstreetbelievers.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=578"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/broadstreetbelievers.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=578"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/broadstreetbelievers.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=578"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}