{"id":5815,"date":"2015-09-09T15:15:35","date_gmt":"2015-09-09T19:15:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.broadstreetbelievers.com\/?p=5815"},"modified":"2015-11-17T13:41:02","modified_gmt":"2015-11-17T17:41:02","slug":"an-overly-analytical-look-at-the-eagles-schedule","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/broadstreetbelievers.com\/?p=5815","title":{"rendered":"An Overly Analytical Look at the Eagles Schedule"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u00a0ORIGINAL ANALYSIS:\u00a0 11.0 wins
\nWEEK ONE UPDATE:\u00a0 Loss\u00a0at Atlanta…10.35 wins
\nWEEK TWO UPDATE:\u00a0 Loss\u00a0vs Dallas…9.75 wins
\nWEEK THREE UPDATE:\u00a0 Win at Jets…10.05 wins
\nWEEK FOUR UPDATE:\u00a0 Loss at Washington…9.30 wins
\nWEEK FIVE UPDATE:\u00a0 Win vs New Orleans…9.50 wins
\nWEEK SIX UPDATE:\u00a0 Win vs Giants…9.70 wins
\nWEEK SEVEN UPDATE:\u00a0 Loss at Carolina…9.15 wins
\nWEEK EIGHT UPDATE:\u00a0 Bye…9.15 wins
\nWEEK NINE UPDATE:\u00a0 Win at Dallas…9.55 wins
\nWEEK TEN UPDATE:\u00a0 Loss vs Miami…8.85 wins
\n<\/em><\/p>\n

Because of the brevity of the NFL season and, therefore, the intense pressure placed on each and every game, no other sport places such an importance on the schedule.\u00a0 Think about the difference between 10-6 and 8-8 – that is just two games, in actuality, but an effective mountain of difference between how a season turns out.\u00a0 But, we all know this, which is why we love to talk about “can the Eagles win 10 games or are they just an\u00a08- or 9-win team?”\u00a0 Which leads to the inevitable prediction machine.<\/p>\n

One of the best parts of sports is forecasting.\u00a0 Trying to figure out just how good your team is.\u00a0 And, these predictions have steadily gotten more and more refined.\u00a0 It started with simple questions like “who’s going to win the Super Bowl?”\u00a0 Then, it became “Who are your 12 playoff teams?”\u00a0 Eventually, people got ambitious and started picking win totals for every team (which drove me nuts because the aggregate of these win totals would inevitably<\/em> be higher than the assumed losses, so the league, in total, would have like 280 wins and 232 losses, even though they were all playing each other).\u00a0 Then, people figured out that there were 256 NFL games each year, so your aggregate win totals had to sum to 256.<\/p>\n

Finally, dorks with far too much time on their hands (like me<\/a>, before the kids took all my “free” time away) started looking at the schedule and picking every game and then seeing what the standings were.\u00a0 But, even this seemed difficult to swallow for me because you can’t consider each and every game either a definite win <\/em>or a definite loss<\/em>.\u00a0 For instance, the Eagles first four games this year are at Atlanta, home to Dallas,\u00a0at the Jets, and at Washington.\u00a0 In a vacuum, I am somewhat confident that they will be favored to win each one of these games, but do I think that 4-0 is the most likely<\/em> Eagles start to the season?\u00a0 No, definitely not.\u00a0 I think 4-0 is definitely more likely than 0-4 or 1-3 and probably even more likely than 2-2.\u00a0 But, if I had to bet, I would say that the Birds will most likely be 3-1 after four games.\u00a0 So, that is why I decided to do the following analysis of the Eagles schedule this year – I will put a guess as to the percent-chance they have of winning each game, then add up all those percentages to see how many games they are expected to win this year.\u00a0 Obviously, home against Washington should be a win, but it won’t be 100% just like at New England won’t be 0%.\u00a0 This is a better indication of an expectation than even going through each game and putting “W” or “L” next to them.<\/p>\n

(NOTE:\u00a0 I actually did that, and only came up with 3 losses – and two of them – at Carolina and at Detroit – were because I thought I was being biased.\u00a0 Then, I looked at the Vegas odds and was confirmed that I’m not being overly biased.\u00a0 Vegas has the Eagles favored in 14 of their 16 games with road games at Dallas and New England as the only times they are underdogs, and the Birds have extra rest for both of those games.)<\/em><\/p>\n

So, anyway, here is each game, broken down with some specifics about rest and such, and my opinion of the chances of winning.<\/p>\n

Week 1:\u00a0 at Atlanta, Monday night<\/strong>
\nFalcons Last Week:\u00a0 None
\nFalcons Next Week:\u00a0\u00a0at N.Y. Giants (early afternoon)
\n<\/em><\/p>\n

On the road on Monday night is not exactly a great spot to open the season as you are likely to be facing about as fired up a crowd as you will see.\u00a0 But, then again, it’s freaking Atlanta – they are lucky to sell every ticket.\u00a0 The Falcons are dangerous and\u00a0by no means a walkover, but their o-line is dreadful, and their secondary is a mess.\u00a0 This is\u00a0not an easy game with Dallas looming next week, but\u00a0the Birds should be a solid favorite.<\/p>\n

Chance of Victory: 65%
\nCumulative Win Shares:\u00a0 0.65
\nPredicted Record:\u00a0 1-0
\nFull-Season Pace:\u00a0 10.4 wins
\n<\/em><\/p>\n

Week 2:\u00a0\u00a0vs Dallas, late afternoon<\/strong>
\nCowboys Last Week:\u00a0 vs N.Y. Giants (Sunday night)
\nCowboys Next Week:\u00a0\u00a0vs Atlanta (early afternoon)
\n<\/em><\/p>\n

The most important home game on the schedule is the home opener.\u00a0 The Linc should be rocking, and I expect the Eagles to come fully prepared and show a lot of DeMarco Murray at his ex-team.\u00a0 I’m not gonna lie, getting the Cowboys on a short week after a road Monday nighter is certainly less than ideal, but the Cowboys at least had a Sunday night NFC East grudge match against the Giants.\u00a0 Schedule-makers favor the ‘Boys here, but I think the Birds are the better team and are at home – Fly, Eagles, Fly.<\/p>\n

Chance of Victory: 60%
\nCumulative Win Shares:\u00a0 1.25
\nPredicted Record:\u00a0 1-1
\nFull-Season Pace:\u00a0 10.0 wins<\/em><\/p>\n

Week 3:\u00a0\u00a0at N.Y. Jets,\u00a0early afternoon<\/strong>
\nJets Last Week:\u00a0 at Indianpolis (Monday night)
\nJets Next Week:\u00a0\u00a0at Miami (early afternoon)
\n<\/em><\/p>\n

A short trip up the Turnpike to face the Geno-less Jets.\u00a0 Todd Bowles against his ex-team.\u00a0 I actually like this Jets team a little more than most because of their terrific defense, but I don’t think they are world-beaters by any stretch.\u00a0 They are also coming off a short week with a road Monday nighter in Week 2.\u00a0 The Birds should take care of business against an inferior team on short rest, but road games are tough in this league, especially coming off of emotional games against a blood rival.<\/p>\n

Chance of Victory: 70%
\nCumulative Win Shares:\u00a0 1.95
\nPredicted Record:\u00a0 2-1
\nFull-Season Pace:\u00a0 10.4 wins<\/em><\/p>\n

Week 4:\u00a0\u00a0at Washington,\u00a0early afternoon<\/strong>
\nWashington Last Week:\u00a0 at N.Y. Giants (Thursday night)
\nWashington Next Week:\u00a0\u00a0at Atlanta (early afternoon)
\n<\/em><\/p>\n

Three of the first four on the road, but this is another really short trip down 95.\u00a0 And, yes, the Washington Professional Football Team has extra rest after their Thursday night tilt, but this is a very, VERY bad football team.\u00a0 Even on the road, this should be no problem.<\/p>\n

Chance of Victory: 85%
\nCumulative Win Shares:\u00a0 2.80
\nPredicted Record:\u00a0 3-1
\nFull-Season Pace:\u00a0 11.2 wins<\/em><\/p>\n

Week 5:\u00a0\u00a0vs New Orleans, early afternoon<\/strong>
\nSaints Last Week:\u00a0 vs Dallas (Sunday night)
\nSaints Next Week:\u00a0\u00a0vs Atlanta (Thursday night)
\n<\/em><\/p>\n

Back home against those New Orleans Saints.\u00a0 Eagles had a full week, while New Orleans had a Sunday night game against Dallas – not a huge deal, but not nothing.\u00a0 Also, the Saints have one of the most important games of the season just 4 days later against Atlanta on Monday night.\u00a0 This little road trip to Philly in between two big home games is not exactly a good spot for a thin Saints team.\u00a0 Oh, and here’s a dirty little secret about the Saints – they’re not really that good…\u00a0 <\/em>This is a great spot to catch Drew Brees & Co., and I like the Birds rather handily in this one.<\/p>\n

Chance of Victory: 80%
\nCumulative Win Shares:\u00a0 3.60
\nPredicted Record:\u00a0 4-1
\nFull-Season Pace:\u00a0 11.5 wins<\/em><\/p>\n

Week 6:\u00a0\u00a0vs N.Y. Giants, Monday night<\/strong>
\nGiants Last Week:\u00a0 vs San Francisco (Sunday night)
\nGiants Next Week:\u00a0\u00a0vs Dallas (late afternoon)
\n<\/em><\/p>\n

Another team off of a Sunday night game, as the Birds get their first look at the 2015 Giants.\u00a0 That Sunday night game with San Fran shouldn’t matter, though, as this is a Monday night affair.\u00a0 Remember what the Birds did to the Giants last year on a Monday night about this time in the season?\u00a0 Ya, this could be even worse.\u00a0 I HATE the Giants, but actually think their offense is pretty good.\u00a0 But, fortunately, their defense is BRUTAL.\u00a0 They have no safeties who can cover anyone, which is bad news against an uptempo spread offense that looks for mismatches.\u00a0 I like the Birds pretty big here.<\/p>\n

Chance of Victory: 80%
\nCumulative Win Shares:\u00a0 4.40
\nPredicted Record:\u00a0 4-2
\nFull-Season Pace:\u00a0 11.7 wins<\/em><\/p>\n

Week 7:\u00a0\u00a0at Carolina, Sunday night<\/strong>
\nPanthers Last Week:\u00a0 at Seattle (late afternoon)
\nPanthers Next Week:\u00a0\u00a0vs Indianapolis (Monday night)
\n<\/em><\/p>\n

This game scares me for some reason.\u00a0 On the road, a week before the bye, coming off a Monday nighter against the Giants, and they could conceivably be 6-0 here.\u00a0 Carolina has the full week’s rest, but are coming off of a road game in Seattle, so they are likely pretty beat up (numbers show that that stuff matters).\u00a0 I think the Birds are, yet again, the favorites in this one, but I don’t feel great about it.<\/p>\n

Chance of Victory: 55%
\nCumulative Win Shares:\u00a0 4.95
\nPredicted Record:\u00a0 5-2
\nFull-Season Pace:\u00a0 11.3 wins<\/em><\/p>\n

Week 8:\u00a0 bye<\/strong><\/p>\n

Week 9:\u00a0\u00a0at Dallas, Sunday night<\/strong>
\nCowboys Last Week:\u00a0 vs Seattle (late afternoon)
\nCowboys Next Week:\u00a0\u00a0at Tampa Bay (early afternoon)
\n<\/em><\/p>\n

And, now the schedule-makers pay us all back.\u00a0 For the second straight game, the Eagles face a team that played Seattle the week prior.\u00a0 And, this time it’s the Cowboys in Dallas with the Eagles coming off a bye.\u00a0 This is one of two games that Vegas has the Eagles as underdogs, but I disagree.\u00a0 I think the Birds are the better team, and I think they go into Dallas and win the game outright.<\/p>\n

Chance of Victory: 60%
\nCumulative Win Shares:\u00a0 5.55
\nPredicted Record:\u00a0 6-2
\nFull-Season Pace:\u00a0 11.1 wins<\/em><\/p>\n

Week 10:\u00a0\u00a0vs Miami, early afternoon<\/strong>
\nDolphins Last Week:\u00a0 at Buffalo (early afternoon)
\nDolphins Next Week:\u00a0\u00a0vs Dallas (early afternoon)
\n<\/em><\/p>\n

The Birds welcome the Miami Dolphins to a brisk mid-November game at the Linc.\u00a0 Despite coming off of a tough Dallas game, I think the Birds are the clear favorites here at home against an improving, but still unfrightening Dolphins team.\u00a0 They are the one team, however, that might be ready for this offense because they see one very similar in practice every day.\u00a0 But, still give me the better team at home on a cold November afternoon.<\/p>\n

Chance of Victory: 70%
\nCumulative Win Shares:\u00a0 6.25
\nPredicted Record:\u00a0 6-3
\nFull-Season Pace:\u00a0 11.1 wins<\/em><\/p>\n

Week 11:\u00a0\u00a0vs Tampa Bay, early afternoon<\/strong>
\nBuccaneers Last Week:\u00a0 vs Dallas (early afternoon)
\nBuccaneers Next Week:\u00a0\u00a0at Indianapolis (early afternoon)
\n<\/em><\/p>\n

Back-to-back November home games against Florida teams.\u00a0 Hard to complain about that.\u00a0 The Bucs stink.\u00a0 This is probably the easiest game on the schedule.<\/p>\n

Chance of Victory: 90%
\nCumulative Win Shares:\u00a0 7.15
\nPredicted Record:\u00a0 7-3
\nFull-Season Pace:\u00a0 11.4 wins<\/em><\/p>\n

Week 12:\u00a0\u00a0at Detroit, Thanksgiving early afternoon<\/strong>
\nLions Last Week:\u00a0 vs Oakland (early afternoon)
\nLions Next Week:\u00a0\u00a0vs Green Bay (Thursday night)
\n<\/em><\/p>\n

Not another Thanksgiving game?!?\u00a0 This is not good for my viewing pleasure, for sure.\u00a0 Hopefully, this is the last one of these for a while.\u00a0 Anyway, enough about me and my problems.\u00a0 I am not a big fan of the Lions team this year, but I thought that this was a really tough spot for the Birds.\u00a0 The early game against a playoff team from a year ago that does this Thanksgiving 12:30 game every year.\u00a0 That doesn’t sound good.\u00a0 But, Vegas has installed the Birds as a 1-point favorite in this game.\u00a0 I don’t agree and while I think the Eagles are a considerably better team than Detroit, I just think this is a tough spot.<\/p>\n

Chance of Victory: 45%
\nCumulative Win Shares:\u00a0 7.60
\nPredicted Record:\u00a08-3
\nFull-Season Pace:\u00a0 11.1 wins<\/em><\/p>\n

Week 13:\u00a0\u00a0at New England, late afternoon<\/strong>
\nPatriots Last Week:\u00a0 at Denver (Sunday night)
\nPatriots Next Week:\u00a0\u00a0at Houston (early afternoon)
\n<\/em><\/p>\n

A trip to Foxborough might be the toughest game anyone can have on their schedule.\u00a0 The Pats just don’t lose up there, and there is no reason to think they are about to start now.\u00a0 However, if you have to go there at some point, it’s pretty nice to go there with 10 days rest against a Pats team that played in the thin air of Mile High on Sunday night prior.\u00a0 The schedule circumstances don’t get much better than this, so while the Birds are still underdogs here, they’ve got a legit shot to pull it off.<\/p>\n

Chance of Victory: 35%
\nCumulative Win Shares:\u00a0 7.95
\nPredicted Record:\u00a0 8-4
\nFull-Season Pace:\u00a0 10.6 wins<\/em><\/p>\n

Week 14:\u00a0\u00a0vs Buffalo, early afternoon<\/strong>
\nBills Last Week:\u00a0 vs Houston (early afternoon)
\nBills Next Week:\u00a0\u00a0at Washington (early afternoon)
\n<\/em><\/p>\n

Ah, the return of one Shady McCoy.\u00a0 I wonder how he’ll be received?\u00a0 Anyway, this is a home game against an inferior team.\u00a0 I actually really like the Bills this year and think that they could have one of (if not THE) best defenses in the league.\u00a0 But, their offense stinks.\u00a0 At home?\u00a0 Gimme the Birds rather easily.<\/p>\n

Chance of Victory: 80%
\nCumulative Win Shares:\u00a0 8.75
\nPredicted Record:\u00a0 9-4
\nFull-Season Pace:\u00a0 10.8 wins<\/em><\/p>\n

Week 15:\u00a0\u00a0vs Arizona, early afternoon<\/strong>
\nCardinals Last Week:\u00a0 vs Minnesota (Thursday night)
\nCardinals Next Week:\u00a0\u00a0vs Green Bay (late afternoon)
\n<\/em><\/p>\n

Ah, the return of Bruce Arians, former Temple coach.\u00a0 Probably not the same cache as one Mr. McCoy, but could be some more tension for our head coach as these two have had words in the past.\u00a0 The Cardinals should be pretty decent this year and do have 10 days rest in advance of this one.\u00a0 But, it is a West Coast team at 1:00 (numbers say these things also matter), and I still think that the Eagles have the better team even on a neutral field.\u00a0 So, at home.\u00a0 Should be another W.<\/p>\n

Chance of Victory: 65%
\nCumulative Win Shares:\u00a0 9.40
\nPredicted Record:\u00a0 9-5
\nFull-Season Pace:\u00a0 10.7 wins<\/em><\/p>\n

Week 16:\u00a0\u00a0vs Washington, Saturday night<\/strong>
\nWashington Last Week:\u00a0 vs Buffalo (early afternoon)
\nWashington Next Week:\u00a0\u00a0at Dallas (early afternoon)
\n<\/em><\/p>\n

Wait, Week 16 against the Washington Professional Football Team on a Saturday night?\u00a0 I feel like we’ve done this before.\u00a0 Well, this has <\/em>to be a win, right?\u00a0 Washington is dreadful, and the Birds should be in line for a playoff spot.\u00a0 Okay, I know what happened last year in almost an identical situation.\u00a0 But, come on…<\/p>\n

Chance of Victory: 90%
\nCumulative Win Shares:\u00a0 10.30
\nPredicted Record:\u00a0 10-5
\nFull-Season Pace:\u00a0 11.0 wins<\/em><\/p>\n

Week 17:\u00a0\u00a0at N.Y. Giants, early afternoon<\/strong>
\nGiants Last Week:\u00a0 at Minnesota (early afternoon)
\nGiants Next Week:\u00a0\u00a0None
\n<\/em><\/p>\n

And, an extra day’s rest to get themselves ready for the regular season finale against the hated G-Men.\u00a0 I’m not as down on the Giants as most, but I still don’t see them in any position other than spoiler here in Week 17.\u00a0 Whereas, the only way the Eagles wouldn’t have anything at stake is if they have their playoff fate locked up.\u00a0 I think the Birds go into Jersey and beat the Giants soundly to round out a very good 2015.<\/p>\n

Chance of Victory: 70%
\nCumulative Win Shares:\u00a0 11.00
\nPredicted Record:\u00a0 11-5
\nFull-Season Pace:\u00a0 11.0 wins<\/em><\/p>\n

And, there you have it.\u00a0 An overly complex, confusing way to come to the conclusion that this is an 11-win team…<\/p>\n

Maybe those guys who just said “Yep, looks like an 11-win team to me” were smarter than we thought.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00a0ORIGINAL ANALYSIS:\u00a0 11.0 wins WEEK ONE UPDATE:\u00a0 Loss\u00a0at Atlanta…10.35 wins WEEK TWO UPDATE:\u00a0 Loss\u00a0vs Dallas…9.75 wins WEEK THREE UPDATE:\u00a0 Win at Jets…10.05 wins WEEK FOUR UPDATE:\u00a0 Loss at Washington…9.30 wins WEEK FIVE UPDATE:\u00a0 Win vs New Orleans…9.50 wins WEEK SIX … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5815","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-nfl"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/broadstreetbelievers.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5815","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/broadstreetbelievers.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/broadstreetbelievers.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/broadstreetbelievers.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/broadstreetbelievers.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5815"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"http:\/\/broadstreetbelievers.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5815\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5818,"href":"http:\/\/broadstreetbelievers.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5815\/revisions\/5818"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/broadstreetbelievers.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5815"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/broadstreetbelievers.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5815"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/broadstreetbelievers.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5815"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}