2010 has been called the Year of the Pitcher, as the league-wide batting average was as low as its been since 1992 and there were 5 no-hitters. Well, if this was the Year of the Pitcher, then the NLCS will certainly be the Series of the Pitcher. As everyone knows, the Phillies-Giants series will match the two best starting rotations in the game.
So, how do you beat great pitching? How can the Phillie offense, which has struggled at times against even the weakest pitching this season, manage even the few runs they’ll likely need to win the series? The answer, of course, is small ball. Many fans out there might cringe when they hear that phrase, or “pitcher’s duel,” but forget Sammy Sosa and Mark McGwire and the “perfect season” of 1998. Baseball is at its best when runs are few and far between, and anyone who disagrees with that is agreeing with Tim McCarver, so tread carefully.
Baseball is a game of one-on-one battles and subtle strategy. So much of that strategy only really comes into play when teams need to use methods other than hitting the ball over the outfield fence to get runners around to home plate. And the one-on-one battles, every last pitch of every one of those battles, could mean the difference between a win and a loss. At this time of year, each one could be the difference between a championship and heart break, between a parade down Broad Street and another Tuesday spent in the office in front of a computer screen.
So, in this series, the little things will make the difference. The Phils’ will almost certainly have to employ small ball tactics (sacrifice bunts, hit-and-run plays, stolen bases, etc.) to scratch out hard-fought wins. So, how can they specifically attack this Giants team, and where do the Phillie strengths and weaknesses lie? Let’s take a look:
How well is Rollins running?: Just about every strategy outlined below can include the caveat: “hopefully Jimmy is running well enough to help here”. So much of effective small ball is about speed, so the extent to which J-Roll can cut loose and run at full tilt will go a long way toward determing how much he can help in this series. He didn’t look great in the LDS, but there’s reason to hope that another five full days of rest could’ve really helped him.
Run on Lincecum: Largely thanks to Davey Lopes, the Phils’ have been the best base-stealing team (percentage-wise) in baseball over the last few seasons. As we noted in our Giants preview, rookie catcher Buster Posey has been excellent at throwing out base-stealers. He played shortstop at Florida St., so you know he’s athletic and has a strong arm. However, Giant ace Tim Lincecum has never been good at holding runners. Even from the stretch, his long, unorthodox pitching motion means the ball takes an extra split-second to get to the plate, and runners have exploited that. Victorino, Utley, Werth, and Rollins have to be ready to take a bag, especially when Saturday’s game moves into the middle and late innings.
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Make Sandoval field the ball: Pablo Sandoval has been the Giants’ starting third baseman all year, though they did put Mike Fontenot in his place for the last two games of the LDS. Sandoval weighs 250 pounds, which means his range at third is extremely limited. If he is in there, Victorino and Rollins should consider trying to bunt for base hits down the third base line, making Sandoval come up and field the ball. Also, the Phils’ should consider more sacrifice bunts than normal, and those should also be directed Sandoval’s way, with the hope that the sacrifice could turn into a base-hit and a big inning
Take the extra base on Burrell: No one knows better than the Phillies (and their fans) about Burrell’s limited mobility in left field. His arm is actually a bit under-rated because, while it’s not strong, it is very accurate. He threw out a lot of base-runners in his time in Philly because runners under-estimated him. BUT, his slow feet can be exploited. Any time a Phillie batter hits a bloop hit to Burrell’s right, they should be thinking double out of the box. Any time a runner is on first and there is a double into the left-field corner, they need to be scoring. The Giants know they’re sacrificing defense and speed for Burrell’s bat. The Phils’ need to make them pay for that decision.
Hit-and-Run with Polanco: One of the main reasons the Phillies chose Polanco as their new third baseman was because of his incredible bat control and low strike-out rates, which is the type of hitter the Phillies needed in a very strike-out prone line-up. With the Phillies needing to manufacture runs in this series, and with Polanco struggling of late, they should take advantage of any opportunity to hit-and-run with him. After a sub-par September, Polanco had just one single in nine LDS at-bats. Many times a slumping hitter can benefit from the hit-and-run because it gets them to stop thinking too much and just make sure they put the bat on the ball. Few players put the bat on the ball as frequently as Polanco, and if Victorino is standing on first base, Charlie would be wise to put on the hit-and-run play.
Move the runners!: This is something that players should always be focused on, but it takes on an added importance in this series. Every player needs to focus on hitting the ball to the right-side with a man on second and no outs. Runners on third with less than two outs have to be driven in. Runners need to be locked in and focused at all times, taking third base on deep fly balls, or even second base if Burrell makes a catch in the left-field corner. Small ball is back, and it’s a beautiful thing, but only if it’s done right. The team that does it better may well be the one headed to the Fall Classic.
Good post. Super excited for this match-up. I’d take a 2-1, 3-2 game over a 6-4 game any day. We should have plenty of those and won’t be surprised to see a 1-0 in there. Assuming Victo is leading off, I’m running him all day or bunting him over. Our power numbers are way down so manufacturing runs will be huge. My worry is our tendency to strike out a lot – that’s not moving baserunners. If Lincecum has 10 K’s in the game, we’re in trouble.
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