College Hoops Looking Like a Two-Horse Race

As Bry noted below, the end of the baseball season means more time to focus on the NFL.  But it also means there’s a new sport coming back for our viewing pleasure: college basketball.  The season gets underway tonight, and the first game is actually a pretty good one, as 4th-ranked Pitt takes on a Rhode Island team that is looking to get over the hump and into the tournament after a couple straight near-misses.

Great coaches, great teams, bad news for everybody else

Back in April, following Duke’s national title win, I ranked the Top 20 teams for the 2010-11 season.  On that list, I had Michigan State at #1 and Duke at 2.  On further reflection, I have to agree with just about everyone else and say that Duke belongs at #1, with the Spartans right behind them.  The loss of Jon Scheyer shouldn’t be underestimated, but with plenty of experience returning, a handful of impact newcomers, and Coach K pulling the strings,  the Blue Devils are a legit #1 team.  Tom Izzo’s team is in a similar position, with tons of experience returning from a team that has been to back-to-back Final Fours.

The question coming into this new season is what teams, if any, can challenge the supremacy of Duke and Michigan St.?  The three teams that I had lined up behind them in April have all lost their best player since I made the list.  Gordon Heyward and Greg Monroe left Butler and Georgetown, respectively, for the NBA, and Purdue lost Robbie Hummel for the year when he re-tore his ACL a couple weeks ago.  A few other teams that I had highly-ranked also lost key players that I thought might be back (West Virginia’s Devin Ebanks, Xavier’s Jordan Crawford, and Baylor’s Ekpe Udoh).

So, who is the third-best team in the country?  I was certainly surprised when the rankings were released and Kansas State was 3rd.  I admit that I probably had them too low in my April rankings (14th), but K-State’s weakness last year was their scoring ability, and they’ve lost Denis Clemente, who averaged 17 points and led the team in assists.  Jacob Pullen, Clint Kelly, and Jamar Samuels is a nice trio, but that roster just doesn’t looke like a Top 5 team to me.

The above-mentioned Pitt Panthers are ranked 4th, but they also have an underwhelming team.  Jamie Dixon is a great coach that always has his team over-achieving, but this team would get run off the floor by the Pitt teams of a couple years ago that featured Sam Young and DeJuan Blair, and I don’t remember those teams making any Final Four trips.  The headliners for this Pitt team: Ashton Gibbs and Brad Wanamaker.  Nice college players, to be sure, but that doesn’t sound like a title-contending team.

For me, a more impressive returning group than K-State’s or Pitt’s can be found on the Main Line.  Nova’s potential starting five of Corey Fisher, Corey Stokes, Maalik Wayns, Antonio Pena, and Dominic Cheek could definitely be Final Four-caliber by March if Wayns and Cheek continue to build on their solid freshman seasons.  The unexpected loss of Taylor King hurts them, but you know Jay Wright will have some talent to choose from on his bench, as well.

The other team that I would put in my potential Final Four as the season gets underway is Ohio State.  William Buford, David Lighty, and Jon Diebler is an under-rated trio, and they’re joined by arguably the top recruiting class in the nation.  There seems to be little doubt that PF Jared Sullinger is ready to be a star right away.  The one big question for the Buckeyes is who will handle the point guard duties that were mostly handled by Evan Turner last year.

The script for this season has Duke and Michigan State squaring off for the title at the Final Four in Houston.  During the non-conference slate, I’ll be looking to see which teams have the goods to force a re-write in March.