Looking Ahead to Next March

One of my favorite columns to read every year are the ones where, in the aftermath of the championship game, the writers project the top teams for next year’s college basketball season.  I’ll attempt to beat them to the punch this year, although my research probably won’t be as exhaustive.  One of the reasons the columns are interesting is because you have to guess which underclassmen will leave for the NBA, and assess how that will affect the team.  The top two teams on my list are very much in the “wait and see” category.  As a basic rule of thumb, if I think a player is questionable to come back, I’ll rank his team as if he is coming back.

1. North Carolina: I’m assuming that Tyler Hansbrough returns for his senior year and that Ty Lawson moves on to the League.  Even without Lawson, this would be the team to beat.  Hansbrough would be joined by the likes of Wayne Ellington, Deon Thompson, and Danny Green, and he would also be a man on a mission, with a national championship being the only thing missing from his college resume.  If he can pull it off, Hansbrough would go down as one of the most accomplished college players in the history of the game.

2. Kansas: This ranking could potentially drop like a rock, depending on the decisions of Brandon Rush, Darrell Arthur, and Mario Chalmers.  Russell Robinson, Darnell Jackson, and Sasha Kaun are gone, but a nucleus of Rush, Arthur, Chalmers, and Sherron Collins would certainly contend again.  Players tend to leave early after a national championship, so Bill Self may have to turn his attention to bringing these guys back to school after he signs his re-worked contract some time soon.

3. Duke: This Duke team will probably still be lacking some inside muscle, but with everyone except DeMarcus Nelson returning to a team that earned a 2-seed in the tournament this year, they will be tough.  The nation’s top high school center, 7’2″ John Riek, is still considering the Dukies, and he would cement them as a Top 5 team heading into next season.

4.  Louisville: At first, you see that Louisville is losing some big-time talent, with David Padgett, Juan Palacios, and Earl Clark all moving on.  But, assuming Terrence Williams returns, they will probably be even better than they were this season.  Jerry Smith, Edgar Sosa, Andre McGee, and Derrick Caracter also return, and two blue-chip recruits, Samardo Samuels and Terrence Jennings, will be joining the front-court.

5. Tennessee: It looks like Bruce Pearl has this team in it for the long-haul.  Chris Lofton and Jajuan Smith exit, but next year’s team will feature a ridiculous junior class that includes Tyler Smith, Ramar Smith, J.P. Prince, Wayne Chism, and Duke Crews.  Top recruit Scotty Hopson will attempt to replace some of the perimeter scoring lost with the departure of Lofton and Jajuan Smith.

6.  Pittsburgh: Mike Cook graduates, but they were without him for most of the season anyway.  Guards Ronald Ramon and Keith Benjamin are also gone, but any team in the nation would be happy to have the trio of Sam Young, Dejaun Blair, and Levance Fields leading the way.

7.  UConn: Jim Calhoun brings his whole team back, so if A.J. Price can recover from the torn ACL he suffered in the tournament, he will join Jeff Adrien, Jerome Dyson, and Hasheem Thabeet on a team that could return UConn to national prominence.

8.  Gonzaga: The best team on the West Coast next season may very will be the Zags, not a Pac-10 team.  Only David Pendergraft graduates, meaning Mark Few will have Jeremy Pargo, Matt Bouldin, Josh Heytvelt, Austin Daye, and Micah Downs at his disposal.  The Zags will certainly look to make some noise early in the season with some big-name non-conference wins.

9.  Michigan St.: The Drews, Neitzel and Naymick, graduate but the Spartans will still have a boatload of talent, led by Raymar Morgan, Kalin Lucas, Travis Walton, and Goran Suton.  Excellent recruit Delvon Roe will also contribute.

10.  USC: This may seem like a strange choice, with O.J. Mayo definitely heading for the lottery, but USC will still have Daniel Hackett, Taj Gibson, and Davon Jefferson.  Maybe most importantly, they will replace Mayo with arguably the top guard in the Class of 2008: L.A. native Demar DeRozan.

Other Notes:

-The Big East will be the best conference in the country next season.  Besides Louisville, Pitt, and UConn, there will plenty of other top teams.  Notre Dame returns Luke Harangody and Kyle McAlarney.  Villanova returns everyone from a Sweet 16 team.  Marquette could be great if Dominic James and Jerel McNeal come back and West Virginia will be very tough if Joe Alexander stays.  Georgetown loses Hibbert, Wallace, and Ewing, but an amazing recruiting class, led by Greg Monroe, will keep them in the tournament.

-Memphis will be doing some rebuilding with Douglas-Roberts, Rose, and Dorsey gone.

-UCLA will be the hardest hit by early departures, with Love, Collison, and Westbrook probably leaving.  Josh Shipp and Luc Richard Mbah A Moute will be joined by top recruit Jrue Holiday.

-Purdue (everyone back) and Wisconsin (with Marcus Landry and Trevon Hughes leading the way) will challenge Michigan St. in the Big Ten again.

-Texas returns everyone but Augustin and will be poised to take the Big 12 from Kansas if the Jayhawks are hit hard by early departures.

-Clemson and Miami both return their top scorers, among others, and will be back in the tournament out of the ACC.

-Xavier will contend in the A-1o, but not nationally, with the departures of Duncan, Burrell, and Lavender.

-Other teams headed for a downturn: Stanford, Washington St., Butler, Vanderbilt, Indiana.