December 1st: #11 North Carolina 89, #9 Michigan St. 82, at Chapel Hill
North Carolina:
This team’s relying on a lot of underclassmen, and they’ll only get better as the season goes on, but they look pretty good already. Deon Thompson and Marcus Ginyard are the unspectacular but rock-solid seniors providing much needed experience. The big-name sophomores are Ed Davis, who’s showing a soft touch to go with his superior size and athleticism, and PG Larry Drew II. Davis could be an All-American this year, and if he adds some muscle he could eventually be a force on the next level as well. I’m not convinced that Drew will ever be a star, but he’s already a steady lead guard.
The bench is made up almost entirely of first-year players (including soph. Tyler Zeller, who missed most of last season with an injury), but that doesn’t mean it’s not really good. John Henson is the biggest name among the freshman. He’s a rail-thin, athletic 6’10 forward, who allegedly can also shoot it pretty well. He could be the key to this team if he can emerge as a force at the small forward spot. PG Dexter Strickland showed a lot of ability in this game. The Wear twins also come in with a lot hype. As the year progresses, this could end up being one of the best benches in the nation. They don’t have much depth at guard, and another question for this team will be whether or not the guard play from Drew, Ginyard, and Strickland is good enough to win it all in March.
Best-Case Scenario: National Champions
Best Guess: Final Four
Michigan St:
The Spartans have almost everyone back from last year’s team that lost to UNC in the championship. Junior PG Kalin Lucas is the team leader and reigning Big Ten Player of the Year, but he didn’t play a great game here. F Draymond Green really stood out in this game as maybe the most improved player on the team. They need his presence in the post. Raymar Morgan has had a lot of injuries and illness to deal with and that probably explains why he’s a disappointment. He led the team in scoring two years ago as a sophomore, but he doesn’t look like a guy that can create his own offense all that much. He had 18 points, but almost all of them came in transition and on alley-oops. A key to this team could be F Delvon Roe. He came in with a lot of hype last year but was underwhelming. He shows flashes of being really good, but can he do it on a consistent basis?
The three returning guards along with Lucas, Durell Summers, Chris Allen, and Korie Lucious, are all capable of putting up a big game and give this team a level of talent and experience in the backcourt that most teams would love to have. This team showed a lot of heart in coming back from a 16-point half-time deficit in Chapel Hill. They’ll need Green and Roe to avoid foul trouble (both fouled out).
Best-Case Scenario: National Champions
Best Guess: Elite Eight
