Where Do We Go From Here

What will follow from here will probably have most Orioles fans shaking their head at their computer or saying things like, “who is this asshole?” but I would like to think some of these ideas are valid….maybe.

As I sit here and watch what looks like the Red Sox three game sweep of the Rays I sit and think about what the Orioles have to do this offseason to improve and make a run at a championship.  Obviously the first thing that comes to my mind, and probably most others, is starting pitching.  Look at the teams in the playoffs this year, the Rays (Price, Moore, Cobb), the Sox (Lester, Buchholz), the As (Parker, Gray, Colon) side note: if you didn’t watch Game 2 of the As/Tigers shame on you because Verlander and Gray both pitched a classic, do yourself a favor next time that kid Gray pitches tune in, he is filthy.  Anyways, you follow up these teams with the Tigers (Verlander, Scherzer, Fister, Sanchez) clearly starting pitching gets you to where you need to go.

Looking at the Orioles starting pitching what do they really have?  In my opinion, Tillman is a one.  As he grows, he is only going to get better.  He should have been a 20 game winner this season and he pitched fantastic.  He is a bulldog on the mound and he constantly fights.  When you look at an ace, to me two things come to mind; innings pitched and ERA.  Well the good news here is that Tillman went over 200 innings, 24th in the majors, and had an ERA of 3.71, 50th in the majors…not too bad for a 25 year old kid.  I don’t see any reason why this guy slows down from here on out, and if he is going to improve on those numbers, especially the ERA, he is going to be pretty damn good, so to me I think you have your ace.  Where we lack, a number two.  The Orioles don’t currently have a number two starter, now I think Gausman is going to get there eventually, but I think he needs a little more time.  Moving on I think you have Chen and Norris who will fight to be the #3 guy, the loser will be our #4 and for me I like Gausman to be the #5 and take a season to learn.  So to recap, next seasons rotation for manager Grossnickle (what an awful ring that has) goes:

1. Chris Tillman

2. TBD

3. Bud Norris

4. Wei-Yin Chen

5. Kevin Gausman

So who goes in the two hole?  Do we sign somebody?  Looking at some of the names out there I am not sure who we would even target.  The problem with most of the free agent starting pitching market is that there is a ton of old blood out there.  So to give sort of a quick rundown of all the guys you have heard of, let’s say 34 years is a pretty healthy aged starting pitcher?  Ok, take a look:

Johan Santana (34), Roy Halladay (37), Barry Zito (36), AJ Burnett (37), Bronson Arroyo (37), Hiroki Kuroda (39), Chris Carpenter (39), Tim Hudson (38), Ryan Vogelsong (36), Roy Oswalt (35)

Do any of these names entice anyone?  Not me, most of these guys have even had trouble staying healthy, that being said there is some serious talent left out there, but I am not sure we can afford them.

1. Tim Lincecum (30) 2013 salary: $22,250,000

Simply put, no thanks.  This guy made a name for himself in 2008 as the pipsqueak with the quirky delivery that his dad taught him that just baffled hitters and for four seasons it was awesome.  The problem is, the last two seasons have been ugly and riddled with injury.  The last two seasons 2012: 186.0 innings, 5.18 ERA.  2013: 197.2 innings, 4.37 ERA, the two highest ERAs of his career.  So to recap the reward for the Giants after giving the Freak a 2 year 45 million dollar contract was that, not the kind of guy I want the Orioles investing serious dough in, let him go disappoint the Yankees.

2. Jon Lester (30) 2013 salary: $11,625,000

We certainly have seen plenty of this guy, as most know an Orioles killer.  This powerful lefty has been a pain in our ass for years, and also a pain in the Red Sox.  Now I am not going to throw a bunch of the numbers out to you about how good or not so good he has been the past few years, but from what I have seen he hasn’t been the same.  In the past two or three seasons he has a guy who has been unreliable and from a consistency standpoint he has frustrated the hell out of the Sox.  Three seasons ago this guy looked like he was going to be the American League Clayton Kershaw, nobody could hit the kid and he was a damn bulldog on the mound just constantly attacking.  Over the past couple of seasons, and definitely this season he hasn’t even been the best in the Red Sox rotation.  For me personally, the juice of somewhere around $11 mil a year just isn’t worth it.  On a side note, Lester is currently under a team option so if the Sox do let him walk…shouldn’t that be a hint at something anyway.

3. Ricky Nolasco (31) 2013 salary: $11,500,000

This is a guy I really wanted the Orioles to make a move for during the trading deadline, instead we went after Feldman who ended up being decent but I personally thought Nolasco was a better move.  Well now he is a free agent and he has pitched great since being with the Dodgers…2.07 ERA good, which means old Ricky is going to get paid.  Unfortunately for the Orioles this season and in future seasons we didn’t trade for Ricky.  The Dodgers have the type of money to pony up to what Nolasco will be asking for, personally I don’t think he moves, but if he does I hope the Orioles are talking.

4. James Shields (32) 2013 salary: $11,000,000

This will be short and sweet.  I would love to see Shields in Orioles black and orange.  The problem is the Royals were actually in the mix this year and they don’t have to worry about re-signing a bunch of guys.  Currently, Shields holds a $12 mil club option and I can’t see any way that they don’t pick that up, but if they don’t he would be on the tops of my list as the semi-affordable type of pitcher the Orioles should target.

5.  Matt Garza (30) 2013 salary: $10,250,000

Initially this was a guy I didn’t have much interest in but after re-evaluating the numbers, this guy is not bad at all.  The biggest question mark with him, is the healthy can he get back to the guys the Rays had and the Cubs paid big bucks for, a guy who eclipsed 200 innings two of his three seasons with Tampa and never had an ERA over 4.00.  I am not sure at this point that this guy is worth $10 mil a season but if you could work him down to $7-$8 a season, I think he would be a great addition and a solid number two to compliment Chris Tillman.

These are the top guys other than that, there is really not much else out there unless we are considering bringing guys like Feldy back.  Can we afford any of these guys? Sure.  Do we think we are going to make a move at one of these guys?  In my heart of hearts I would say it is looking like Garza or bust.  So then what do you do if you don’t get Garza.  My opinion, time to trade Matt Wieters. (I can already hear most of the swearing as you all read that sentence)

Listen, I love Wieters.  I think what he does for that rotation, how he controls the game defensively is second to none.  However, we cannot just pay this guy whatever he is asking.  Now, if Wieters was hitting .285 and drawing a boatload of walks with the power numbers he currently holds I would say he is worth every bit of $150 million, but the bottom line is he’s not.  It’s great that he’s the best defensive catcher in the game but does that warrant a contract like Mauer, Posey or Molina?  No, it doesn’t.  Those guys are monsters in both aspects of the game and if Wieters is the number one defensive catcher in the game, Molina is 1a, he’s damn good watch him in the playoffs.  Molina got a 5 yr $75 million dollar deal last season, $15 a year, is Wieters worth that much?  Molina has hit over .300 his past three seasons, been 32nd, 18th and 56th in the majors in OBP the past three seasons and has been right there defensively with Wieters.  On the other hand Wieters hasn’t hit over .265, never hit 25 HRs in a season and his OBP numbers in the past three years…133rd, 84th and 94th.  I get Wieters is our golden boy, I totally understand he is the guy that we want in black and orange until he hangs up the mask but that does not mean you pay what he doesn’t deserve.  If Molina is getting $15 mil a year, from those numbers alone I can’t see how you pay Wieters more than $11 mil a year.  If you offered him a 7 year, $77 mil type of deal I think that was fair, hell even go 7 years $80 mil and I am on board, but this talk of $120 million is crazy.  Not to mention, why wait until we have to make a move and then not get anything for him.  If we wait until Wieters is a free agent, here is the problem, if we want to keep him that badly at that point we will have to pay him whatever he wants, and didn’t we just see that sort of situation with another guy in town who ended up with $120 mil. (I am a Flacco guy by the way).

By the way for those of you saying just give Wieters whatever you want, go ahead, because then you will watch Chris Davis walk out the door.  Both of these guys are Scott Boras guys and if Davis has any type of season he had this year, he will be another guy getting paid, either way we aren’t keeping both of them.

Now that we have traded Wieters what are we going to get in return.  To me, that is the $120 mil dollar question.  I think Wieters stock is at an all-time high now that the Orioles are relevant and he is one of the faces of that team.  Who do we want?  I would think if we are shipping Wieters somewhere we would want some sort of big time arm.  If I am Dan Duquette and I really want to spend the money and I am looking to pay a guy 12-15 million a year, I am calling a team that can afford Wieters that would want to add another bat to a lineup that could take control of a somewhat shaky rotation and a bit of a suspect bullpen.  That’s right I am calling the LA Angels and seeing how interested they are in shipping off the 31 year old Jered Weaver.  This guy has a career 3.24 ERA he just got a contract and now that he has hit 31 and Wieters is still only 27 years old, I think it may be a spot that the Angels would be willing to talk a little.  Now obviously to land a guy like Weaver I think we would have to attach a piece (maybe Matusz?) but I think they might talk.  Now obviously, I am as big a homer as anyone so maybe I am valuing Wieters and Matusz too high, but maybe I am not due to Weaver being 31.  I still think that gives Weaver a good six or seven years and let’s face it if he was the ace and won us two World Series in seven seasons it be well worth shipping off Wieters.

There it is, the ramblings of a mad man.  I am sure I will put this article out there and the Orioles will go in a completely different direction, but hey, it is fun to put on my GM hat every once in a while…regardless of how ugly and stupid looking it is.  Coming soon my opinions on what kind of additions we need to make lineup wise, expect most suggestions as shitty as this one.