2010 MLB Playoffs: Rating Each Phillie on the ‘Momentum Meter’

With this post, we officially put the regular season behind us to begin coverage of the 2010 Playoffs.  It was a regular season that saw the Phils finish with the best record in baseball for the first time in their 127 year history.  Amazing.  Before taking a look at LDS foe Cincinnati in a day or two, we’ll go through the Phils’ roster on a player-by-player basis for a very brief summary of their 2010 season, and also what kind of momentum they’re taking into the post-season.

In the first round of the playoffs, when each hitter comes to bat, you see their regular season stats.  Obviously, those stats tell you a lot about their season, but they don’t tell you the whole story about what kind of hitter the guy is right now.  What I mean by that is, the season is a 6-month, 162-game odyssey.  Some guys have monster numbers in the first-half, then fall apart in the second.  Some guys play through an injury for half the season but come into October fully healthy.

So, in the following breakdown, we’ll include a snap-shot of each player’s full season stats, but we’ll also take a look at “who’s hot and who’s not”.  Where do the concerns lie for the Phils, and what under-the-radar players are poised to pick up a clutch hit or get a tough out that could make all the difference in a short, best-of-5 series?

To help make this a bit more clear, we’ll assign each player a  rating on the “Momentum Meter”:  a 1 through 5 rating based on, you guessed it, how much momentum they have coming into the playoffs.  A 1 means they’ve been really struggling and a 5 means “Reds, Beware.”

Position Players (in alphabetical order):

Greg Dobbs: (AVG/OBP/SLG)- .196/.251/.331. Dobbs is the first one on this alphabetical list, but he’ll most likely be the last guy off the bench.  In fact, don’t be surprised if he doesn’t even make an appearance in the LDS.

• Momentum Meter: 2.  Four hits over the past week, which is pretty impressive for him this season.  But, man, what a poor year he had. 

Ben Francisco:  .268/.327/.441. An under-rated bench player.  He has some power, some speed, and can play all three outfield positions.  If he was any better at one of those those skills, some team would probably be willing to pay him starter money. 

• Momentum Meter:  4.  His 2-homer game on Wednesday means he’s taking some nice momentum into post-season play.  He’ll be Charlie’s top right-handed pinch-hitting option. 

Ross Gload:  .281/.328/.484.  After a slow start this year, Gload really showed why he’s considered one of the top pinch-hitters in the game.  Kudos to Ruben Amaro for this low-publicity signing.  Gload also stepped up nicely when Howard went down with the ankle injury in August.

• Momentum Meter:  3.  Not many AB’s over the past month, but he’s been consistently good since June.  He’ll be Charlie’s go-to pinch-hitter.

Ryan Howard: .276/.353/.505. A great example of why full-season stats don’t tell you everything.  That .505 SLG looks really low for him (and it is), but that number is .550 since June 1st and has been rising pretty steadily throughout the year.  It’s also worth keeping in mind that power numbers were down across the league this year.  Despite missing 3 weeks, he still finishes in the Top-10 in the NL in home runs and 4th in RBI.

• Momentum Meter:  4.  Slugged .570 in September.  Looks like he’s still not running as well as normal after the ankle injury, but it’s not affecting his hitting.

Raul Ibanez:  .275/.349/.444.  Just like last year, it was a tale of two halves for Raul, but this time he was great in the 2nd half.

• Momentum Meter:  5.  Hit .340 with a .577 SLG% in September.

Placido Polanco:  .298/.339/.386.  He’ll have elbow surgery as soon as the season ends, so he’s limping to the finish line, to a certain extent.  The injury has all but zapped what little power he has, as he still has just one home run since May 6th.

• Momentum Meter:  2.  .260 AVG in September, pretty bad considering he’s basically a singles hitter right now.  Maybe the cortisone shot he got this week will help.  Some cause for concern here with the #2 hitter in the line-up.

Jimmy Rollins: .243/.320/.374.  Basically a lost season for Jimmy.  He had three lengthy trips to the DL, so even though he did play half the season, he was never able to get into any kind of rhythm. 

• Momentum Meter:  2.  4-for-19 since coming back from the latest injury.  Very unlikely that he’ll be much of a base-stealing threat, at least in the LDS.  The Momentum Meter gives him a 2 just for that grand slam in Atlanta on Friday night. 

Carlos Ruiz:  .302/.400/.447.  The Legend of Chooch continued to grow as the soft-spoken Panamanian came up with as many big hits as any Phillie this year.  Can you believe: he led the team in hitting and OBP?  If he can match his ’09 post-season this year, he could cement himself as one of the most unlikely heroes in Philly sports history. 

• Momentum Meter:  5.  He was already having a career year when he posted his best month yet in September, hitting .324 with a .500 SLG%.

Brian Schneider:  .240/.345/.384.  A very backup-catcher-like season from the backup catcher.

• Momentum Meter:  3.  Hasn’t seen the field much, which will most likely continue in the post-season.  He did manage 6 singles in 16 September AB’s, though.

Mike Sweeney:  .253/.323/.447.  Among active players who have never appeared in the post-season, Sweeney ranks 4th in games played and Halladay ranks 1st in innings pitched.  For two of the nicer guys in the game, it’s good to see.  Side note: two of the guys ahead of Sweeney on that list will also be in this year’s post-season: Michael Young and Aubrey Huff.  Randy Winn began the year with the Yankees but finished with the Cardinals, so he remains atop the list heading into next season.

• Momentum Meter:  3.  Barely played over the past month, but he did hit a home run on Wednesday.

Chase Utley:  .275/.387/.445.  While we’re throwing out random trivia:  Chase is the all-time leader in home runs by a player with a last name starting with ‘U’.  Another guy that can’t be judged by his season stats.  Not only did he miss two months with the thumb injury, but he was also recovering from surgery at the start of the season.  It’s impossible to say how much that affected him.  Either way, it was clearly a sub-par season for him at the plate.

• Momentum Meter:  4.  It looks like he’s finally put the injuries behind him.  .323 average and .531 SLG% in September, including at least one hit in 16 of the last 18 games of the month.  Obviously great news for the team.

Wilson Valdez:  .258/.306/.360.  We’ve said it here many times now: the Phils’ needed someone like him to come in and get the job done this season, and he certainly did.

• Momentum Meter:  4.  Hit .297 in September as the starting SS for basically the whole month.

Shane Victorino:  .259/.327/.429. The power numbers are great, but Shane needs to get his average and OBP up next season.

• Momentum Meter:  3.  Was on fire in early September, as evidenced by his .380 OBP and 10 steals in the month.  But has just 6 hits in his last 37 AB’s, and just spent a few days away from the team for the birth of his son.  That all adds up to a “who knows?” on the ole’ Momentum Meter, so we’ll give him a 3.

Jayson Werth:  .296/.388/.532.  Considering his contract situation, hiring Scott Boras as his new agent, and an up-and-down (but mostly up) performance on the field, it’s been an interesting year for him.  The intrigue will continue in the off-season.  He’ll get a massive contract one way or the other, and probably not from the Phils.

• Momentum Meter:  5.  His 8 home runs in September tied Howard’s July total for the most by a Phillie in a month this season, and he added another on Sunday.

Pitchers:

Danys Baez:  47.2 IP, 5.48 ERA, 1.64 WHIP.  A disappointing season, as he was unable to establish himself as a useful part of the pen.  Relief pitchers are hard to predict, his track record suggests that he could potentially be a useful piece next season, in the 2nd year of his 2-year deal.

• Momentum Meter:  2.  He was actually having his best run of outings on the season before he imploded to the tune of 4 runs in 2/3 of an inning on Sunday.  That may have been the end of his bid for a post-season roster spot.

Antonio Bastardo:  18.2 IP, 4.34 ERA, 1.50 WHIP.  He scuttled between AAA and the majors throughout the season, and was mostly unimpressive with the big club.  He wasn’t bad, but did nothing to suggest that he’s a guy that can really be counted on to get high-pressure post-season outs.

• Momentum Meter: 3.  After his third straight decent outing on Saturday, Charlie said that he’s been impressed with how he’s thrown lately.  It’s a good sign, but the Momentum Meter won’t grant him anything more than a tepid 3.      

Joe Blanton:  9-6, 174.2 IP, 4.74 ERA, 1.40 WHIP.  One of those guys who’s been on an upward swing all season.  Missed the first month with an injury, then was pretty bad for a couple months before starting to put it together around mid-season.  It remains to be seen what his role will be in the post-season, but it ‘s nice knowing he’s there, and he should pencil in nicely behind the Big Three going into next season.

• Momentum Meter:  5.  5-0 with a 2.73 ERA over his last 9 starts.

Jose Contreras: 56.2 IP, 3.34 ERA, 1.22 WHIP.  A quietly solid season and a good return on the 1 year/$1.5 mil. contract.  He should be considered the third-best reliever behind Lidge and Madson, but Charlie doesn’t seem to have too much confidence in him.

• Momentum Meter: 3.  Had back-to-back poor outings a couple weeks ago, but was solid in his 8 games since then, including two 1-2-3 innings this weekend in Atlanta.

Chad Durbin: 67.1 IP, 3.80 ERA, 1.31 WHIP.  Basically the season you expect from Durbin:  decent, not great.     

• Momentum Meter: 1.  Durbin’s really struggled over the past month, with a 6.52 September ERA.  Allowed three base-runners in 1.1 IP in his final tune-up on Sunday.  Hold your breath if the Phils have to go to him in a key spot in the LDS.

Roy Halladay: 21-10, 250.2 IP, 2.44 ERA, 1.04 WHIP.  Which of those stats is most impressive?  The 21 wins?  The sub 2.50 ERA?  The 250 innings?  Take your pick.  The guy was everything Phillie fans hoped he would be.  Most likely will take home the Cy Young for his efforts.

• Momentum Meter:  3.  A tough read for the Momentum Meter.  One the one hand, in his 6 starts prior to his final regular season start, he gave up at least 3 runs each time, which is quite un-Halladay-like.  On the other hand, he dealt the Nats a 2-hit shutout in that final start, he’s getting some much-needed rest before his Game 1 start, and you know how badly he wants to be at his best for this post-season.

Cole Hamels: 12-11, 208 IP, 3.07 ERA, 1.18 WHIP.  His two scoreless innings on Sunday ensured that he beat out his ’08 ERA for the best of his career.  It really seems like his ’08 post-season success had a certain negative effect on him, and that he didn’t go into ’09 with the right mind-set and the right motivation.  I don’t often give Cole much credit for anything he does off the mound, but he deserves praise for getting his career back on track.  He’ll enter the post-season (and 2011) as the best #3 starter in the game.

• Momentum Meter: 5.  A 2.28 ERA since the All-Star break, 1.93 in September.  He had his first bad start in a while against the Mets last week, but his incredible run through these last three months, combined with cruising through his two innings on Sunday, is more than enough to keep the Meter reading 5.

Kyle Kendrick:  11-10, 180.2 IP, 4.73 ERA, 1.37 WHIP.  I think we can finally pass down a final judgement on KK:  he’s a #5 starter.  The only question left is whether he should be a #5 for a good team or a bad one.  With all the money the Phillies have committed elsewhere for 2011, you have to think he’ll get another shot at that #5 spot in Spring Training next year with the Phils.

• Momentum Meter:  2.  If he does make the post-season roster, it’s hard to imagine he’ll see much work.  He did keep the Phils in the game over his last four starts.

Brad Lidge: 44.2 IP, 2.96 ERA, 1.23 WHIP.  It wasn’t always pretty, but a fine, bounce-back season from the Phillie closer.   

• Momentum Meter: 4.  He’s allowed just 3 earned runs in his last 24.2 IP, but the Momentum Meter isn’t willing to give Lidge a 5.  As good as the stats are, this is not ’08 Lidge.  He’s shown he can get the job done, but those occasional shaky outings, like on Sunday (2 walks and a hit in 1 inning), will keep us all on the edge of our seats in the coming weeks.

Ryan Madson:  52 IP, 2.60 ERA, 1.04 WHIP.  The best season of what’s becoming a really nice career as a set-up man. 

• Momentum Meter:  5.  Forget that 2-run homer he served up to Carlos Beltran last week.  He’s sporting a 1.50 ERA since the All-Star break, and worked more than any other reliever in the game in that stretch.  There’s been some concern about his heavy workload, but considering he missed two months with the toe injury, and that he’s had some solid rest leading into Wednesday, he’ll be good to go for October baseball.

Roy Oswalt: 13-13, 210.2 IP, 2.73 ERA, 1.02 WHIP.  Oswalt has had a fantastic career, so it’s no small feat that he matched his career-best ERA this season, and posted his best WHIP ever.  In 81.2 innings for the Phils, his ERA was 1.65.  Seems like he was happy that Lidge convinced him to accept that trade.  He’ll get the start in Game 2 on Friday.

• Momentum Meter:  5.  The Momentum Meter is almost bursting.  After an August that saw him put up a 1.53 ERA, he somehow took it up a notch in September, with a 1.12.  So, he’s basically 1968 Bob Gibson right now.  And he’s not our ace.  So that’s pretty cool.

J.C. Romero: 36.2 IP, 3.68 ERA, 1.61 WHIP.  Definitely a dissappointing season for Romero, after a couple really good years as the go-to lefty.  This is one stat line where the WHIP comes in handy.  That 3.68 ERA is respectable, but anyone who watched Romero this year knows that that number should be much higher.

• Momentum Meter: 2.  He’s been pitching decently of late, but the walks are still way too high.  And he left Sunday’s game with an injury.  No idea yet how serious it is, but we’re staring at the possibility of Antonio Bastardo as the only lefty in the Phillie bullpen this October.