1995 was the first year of the Wild Card Era in baseball, and I remember watching some of the first ever “Division Series” on a restaurant/bar TV in South Bend, Indiana, where I was on a trip to see a Notre Dame football game. The Reds were a part of that post-season, and with a team led by Barry Larkin, Reggie Sanders, and Ron Gant, they were attempting to rekindle some of the magic that had led them to a World Championship five years earlier.
Dusty Baker leads a third franchise to the post-season
But the Nasty Boys these weren’t. They did sweep the Dodgers in that LDS, but were then swept themselves by the eventual champion Braves in the NLCS. Fifteen years later, the Reds are finally back in the playoffs. On Wednesday, the NL Central champions will come to Citizens Bank Park to stare down Roy Halladay and the 2-time defending NL Champs. The Phils were 5-2 against the Reds this year, including a 4-game sweep at the Bank in July.
In this post we’ll examine this Reds team player-by-player. Like we did with the Phils yesterday, we’ll use the Momentum Meter to guage what Reds are coming into the series hot or cold or somewhere in between. We won’t, however, go through every player on the roster, just the 8 starting position players, the three starting pitchers, and the key arms in the bullpen.
Starting Line-Up (Best guess at what the line-up will look like on Wednesday): This Reds offense led the NL in runs scored.
1. Drew Stubbs– CF: .255/.329/.444, 22 HR, 30 SB. The 25-year-old Texan had a breakout season. Certainly not a prototypical leadoff hitter, with 168 strike outs and low-ish OBP, but he does have plenty of speed. A fairly average defensive CF, but probably the best arm in the Cincy outfield.
- Momentum Meter: 5. .311 with 7 HR in September.
2. Orlando Cabrera– SS: .263/.303/.354, 4 HR, 11 SB. Wily veteran out of Colombia. He’s a winner: in post-season for 6th time in last 7 years, despite playing for 5 different teams in that span. At 35, pretty well past his prime, both with the bat and in the field.
- Momentum Meter: 3
Votto is the MVP
3. Joey Votto– 1B: .324/.424/.600, 37 HR, 113 RBI. Will almost certainly take home the NL MVP Award. Led the league in OBP and SLG. A Canadian who missed time with depression following the death of his father last year. The burly first baseman is also a base stealing threat, with 16 swipes on the year.
- Momentum Meter: 4. He’s been very good lately, but he’s been very good ALL YEAR.
4. Scott Rolen– 3B: .285/.358/.497, 20 HR, 83 RBI. Well, well, look who it is. I was at the Vet for his first game back after he was traded and, yes, I did boo along with the other 40,000 or so fans in attendance. He had a couple hits that night, and he’s hit the Phils well ever since. He had his best season since he was a member of the ’06 Cardinal championship team. Still getting it done in the field, as well.
- Momentum Meter: 1. Big drop-off in production over the last couple of months. His power has all but disappeared (3 HR since July 1st). Maybe the old back is barking again?
5. Jonny Gomes– LF: .266/.327/.431, 18 HR, 86 RBI. Been a slightly under-rated hitter throughout his career (though a total liability in the field), and he’s been rejuvenated in Cincy after an abysmal ’08 season with Tampa.
- Momentum Meter: 3.
6. Jay Bruce– RF: .281/.353/.493, 25 HR, 70 RBI. Another young Texan, Bruce made a big splash when he first reached the majors in ’08, but then regressed for a while. Came back with a strong season this year and has been the Reds best hitter over the last couple months. He’s played center in the past, so he has good range for a right fielder.
- Momentum Meter: 5. .338, 15 HR since August 1st, 3 homers in the last two games of the season. He will be dangerous in this series.
7. Brandon Phillips– 2B: .275/.332/.430, 18 HR, 16 SB. The fact that he’ll likely hit 7th shows how good this line-up is. He’s been consistenly solid for a number of years now, at the plate and in the field.
- Momentum Meter: 2. Had a brutal September, but started to get his swing back over the last week of the season.
8. Ramon Hernandez– C: .297/.364/.428, 7 HR, 313 AB. You hear about the Reds being young, but they have plenty of experienced veterans, and Hernandez is another one. Like Rolen, he posted his best season since ’06.
- Momentum Meter: 2.
Starting Rotation:
The Reds gamble on Volquez
Edinson Volquez: 4-3, 4.31 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 62 IP. He’s coming off Tommy John surgery and made just 12 starts on the year. He’s got great stuff, but has had control problems. It’s definitely a high risk/high reward choice by Reds manager Dusty Baker. The Phils will have to be patient and make him throw strikes. He features a mid-90’s fastball, with an excellent curve, and a change-up. This is somewhat remiscent of Yovani Gallardo starting Game 1 of the LDS against the Phils in ’08: a young phenom coming off an injury making his first post-season start.
- Momentum Meter: 4. A 1.95 ERA in four September starts, but hasn’t had truly sustained success since the injury.
Bronson Arroyo: 17-10, 3.88 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 215 IP. A steady veteran who returns to the post-season for the first time since he left Boston after the ’05 season. Threw over 200 innings for the 6th straight year, and had double-digit wins for the 6th time in the last 7 seaons. Has a top-shelf curveball, and also throws a lot of change-ups and a slider.
- Momentum Meter: 4. Take away the 7 runs he gave up at Coors Field on September 8th, and his recent numbers are excellent. Has allowed 2 runs or less in all four starts since that Coors field start.
Johnny Cueto: 12-7, 3.64 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 185 IP. The 24-year-old Dominican really started to harness his talent this year, his 3rd in the big leagues. He’s a fastball/slider guy for the most part.
- Momentum Meter: 2. Inconsistent over the last couple of months. 7 innings, 1 earned run in his last start; 1.1 innings, 8 earned runs in the start before that is a reflection of that inconsistency. The Reds will have to hope that Johnny Be Good in Game 3 in Cincy.
Bullpen:
Francisco Cordero– Closer: 3.84 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 40 SV, 72 IP. Not a great season from the veteran closer. He did save 40 for the third time in his career, but he blew 8 saves and gave up a lot of walks.
- Momentum Meter: 2. A 6.75 September ERA, though he did have 5 straight scoreless outings to end the regular season. He’s definitely vulnerable.
The Cuban Fire-Baller
Aroldis Chapman– LH: 2.03 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 13 IP. Maybe the most buzzed about player in baseball over the last couple of months thanks to his 105 MPH fastball, the fastest ever recorded. The 22-year-old defected from Cuba last year. The only question mark for him has been his control, but he’s had that reasonably in check since coming to the majors, with 5 walks issued in his 13.1 innings. You know Utley and Howard will be getting some looks at this freakish lefty.
Nick Masset– RH: 3.40 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 76 IP. Bit of a journeyman who’s put together back-to-back solid seasons out of the Cincy pen.
- Momentum Meter: 4. Take away the 4 runs he gave up to Pittsburgh on Sept. 11th, and he’s been virtually unhittable since mid-June.
Arthur Rhodes– LH: 2.29 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 55 IP. Your classic lefty who’s played for a hundred teams (including the Phils), and will be able to find a job in the big leagues virtually until his arm falls off.
- Momentum Meter: 3. Another nice lefty for them to throw at our lefties. The good news: the Phils scored 5 runs on him in 2 innings (over 5 appearances) this season. That’s more than a third of the runs he gave up all season.
Logan Ondrusek– RH: Yet another young Texan on this team, this one a rookie.
- Momentum Meter: 5. Just one run allowed in his last 14 outings.
I actually really like the matchup of the Phillies offense against these pitchers. Volquez is, as you said, a pretty big wild card, but they say that it takes a full year to get your full power back after Tommy John surgery, so he is vulnerable. Interesting comparison to Yovani Gallardo’s start in 2008. As I recall, Gallardo threw a pretty decent game that day, he just got outdueled by Mr. Hamels.
As for the #2 starter, Arroyo, I don’t think there is a better matchup for the Phils offense because Arroyo, though being a crafty veteran, has been LIT UP by left-handers all year. And, as we know, the Phils lineup will feature lefties in the 1, 3, 4, 6, and 7 spots in the lineup against him. Nice recipe for success there.
Cueto is probably the scariest starter (and surprising that he’s going Game Three), but he seems to have hit a bit of a wall. Plus, with the young guys of Volquez, Cueto, and Chapman, the Phils will do what they do best–be patient and wait for mistakes. Plus, Cordero isn’t exactly that scary any more at the back of the ‘pen.
Fluky starts aside, the Phils should score a decent number of runs against this pitching staff, so if the “Big Three” pitch anywhere near as good as they have pitched in recent weeks, it’s a nice matchup. Add that to the fact that the Reds are significantly below .500 this year against teams with winning records, and it all adds up to the Phils being pretty decent favorites in this series.
…But, 5-game series are total crapshoots, which SUCKS when you’re the favorite.