If you actually have a job or, well, anything else to do, you probably haven’t figured out all the different permutations for the NFL playoff scenarios.  Well, as a BSB reader, you’re in luck because I absolutely love this stuff and spent way too much time figuring out everything that could possibly happen over the next two weeks that would affect the playoff seedings in both conferences (with some invaluable help from the awesome NFL Playoff Machine on ESPN.com).

I have, however, made it a little easier to wrap our heads around by assuming several of the remaining games as “givens.”  Because of the unpredictability of the NFL, I tried to be extra conservative when “locking” a team in to a victory.

The NFC

As much as I want to start in the AFC because it is way simpler, I figure, as a die-hard Eagles fan, I have to start here.  First, here are the upcoming games that I have either decided to deem as “givens” because of a disparate mismatch between the two teams or don’t matter in the playoff mix (home teams in CAPS):

Week 16

• PHILADELPHIA over Minnesota
• Dallas at ARIZONA – doesn’t matter
• Detroit at MIAMI – doesn’t matter

Week 17

• ATLANTA over Carolina
• N.Y.Giants over WASHINGTON
• Minnesota at DETROIT – doesn’t matter

Now, if those games go as we called for them to go, here are the scenarios for each NFC team, starting with the six NFC teams that can start thinking about the draft (or the golf course):

Eliminated

• Arizona
• Carolina
• Dallas
• Detroit
• Minnesota
• Washington

Atlanta (12-2)
Week 16:  vs New Orleans (?)
Week 17:  vs Carolina (W)

• Clinched 1-seed

Chicago (10-4)
Week 16:  vs N.Y. Jets (?)
Week 17:  at GREEN BAY (?)

• With 2 Ws
  2-seed
• With 1 W & 1 L
  2-seed with Philadelphia L vs Dallas
  3-seed with Philadelphia W vs Dallas
• With 2 Ls
  3-seed

Philadelphia (10-4)
Week 16:  vs Minnesota (W)
Week 17:  vs Dallas (?)

• With W vs Dallas
  2-seed with 1+ Chicago L
  3-seed with 2 Chicago Ws
• With L vs Dallas
  2-seed with 2 Chicago Ls
  3-seed with 1+ Chicago W

New Orleans (10-4)
Week 16:  at ATLANTA (?)
Week 17:  vs Tampa Bay (?)

• With 1+ W
  5-seed
• With 2 Ls
  5-seed with 1+ Tampa Bay L and 1+ Green Bay L and 1+ N.Y. Giants L
  6-seed with 1+ Tampa Bay L and Green Bay W vs Chicago
  OUT with 2 Tampa Bay Ws (no matter what else happens around the league)

N.Y. Giants (9-5)
Week 16:  at GREEN BAY (?)
Week 17:  at WASHINGTON (W)

• With W at GREEN BAY
  5-seed with 2 New Orleans Ls
  6-seed with 1+ New Orleans W
• With L at GREEN BAY
  6-seed with 1+ Tampa Bay L and Green Bay L vs Chicago
  6-seed with 2 New Orleans Ls and 1+ Tampa Bay L and Green Bay L vs Chicago
  6-seed with 2 New Orleans Ls and 2 Tampa Bay Ws and Green Bay W vs Chicago
  OUT with 1+ New Orleans W and Green Bay W vs Chicago

Green Bay (8-6)
Week 16:  vs N.Y. Giants (?)
Week 17:  vs Chicago (?)

• With 2 Ws
  5-seed with 2 New Orleans Ls
  6-seed with 1+ New Orleans W
• With 1+ L
  OUT

Tampa Bay (8-6)
Week 16:  vs Seattle (?)
Week 17:  at NEW ORLEANS (?)

• With 2 Ws
  6-seed with 2 New Orleans Ls (including their matchup) and 1 Green Bay L
• With 1+ L
  OUT

St. Louis (6-8)
Week 16:  vs San Francisco (?)
Week 17:  at SEATTLE (?)

• With 2 Ws
  4-seed
• With L vs San Francisco & W at SEATTLE
  4-seed with San Francisco L vs Arizona
  OUT with San Francisco W vs Arizona
• With L at SEATTLE (regardless of Week 16 result)
  OUT

Seattle (6-8)
Week 16:  at TAMPA BAY (?)
Week 17:  vs St. Louis (?)

• With 2 Ws
  4-seed
• With L at TAMPA BAY and W vs St. Louis
  4-seed with 1+ San Francisco L
  OUT with 2 San Francisco Ws
• With L vs St. Louis (regardless of Week 16 result)
  OUT

San Francisco (5-9)
Week 16:  at ST LOUIS (?)
Week 17:  vs Arizona (?)

• With 2 Ws
  4-seed with 1+ Seattle L and 1+ St. Louis L
  OUT with 2 Seattle Ws or 2 St. Louis Ws
• With 1+ L
  OUT

The AFC

Whew…Okay, if you are still with me (and I am not quite sure who is), the AFC is much simpler – mainly because there are a lot more “given” games.  So, here are the games that we are considering “given:”

Week 16

• PITTSBURGH over Carolina
• JACKSONVILLE over Washington
• San Diego over CINCINNATI
• New England over BUFFALO
• Baltimore over CLEVELAND
• Detroit at MIAMI – doesn’t matter
• Houston at DENVER – doesn’t matter

Week 17

• N.Y. JETS over Buffalo
• Pittsburgh over CLEVELAND
• BALTIMORE over Cincinnati
• San Diego over DENVER

If you agree with all of those results, then you would eliminate eight AFC teams.

Eliminated

• Buffalo
• Cincinnati
• Cleveland
• Denver
• Houston
• Miami
• Oakland
• Tennessee

New England (12-2)
Week 16:  at BUFFALO (W)
Week 17:  vs Miami (?)

• Clinched 1-seed

Pittsburgh (10-4)
Week 16:  vs Carolina (W)
Week 17:  at CLEVELAND (W)

• Clinched 2-seed

Baltimore (10-4)
Week 16:  at CLEVELAND (W)
Week 17:  vs Cincinnati (W)

• Clinched 5-seed

N.Y. Jets (10-4)
Week 16:  at CHICAGO (?)
Week 17:  vs Buffalo (W)

• Clinched 6-seed

Kansas City (9-5)
Week 16:  vs Tennessee (?)
Week 17:  vs Oakland (?)

• With 2 Ws
  3-seed
• With 1+ L
  OUT

San Diego (8-6)
Week 16:  at CINCINNATI (W)
Week 17:  at DENVER (W)

• With 1+ Kansas City L
  3-seed
• With 2 Kansas City Ws
  OUT

Indianapolis (8-6)
Week 16:  at OAKLAND (?)
Week 17:  vs Tennessee (?)

• With 2 Ws
  4-seed
• With 1 W & 1 L
  4-seed with Jacksonville L at HOUSTON
  OUT with Jacksonville W at HOUSTON
• With 2 Ls
  OUT

Jacksonville (8-6)
Week 16:  vs Washington (W)
Week 17:  at HOUSTON (?)

• With W at HOUSTON
  4-seed with 1+ Indianapolis L
  OUT with 2 Indianapolis Ws
• With L at HOUSTON
  4-seed with 2 Indianapolis Ls
  OUT with 1+ Indianapolis W