2010 College Basketball Conference Previews: Big East

[NOTE:  This post is still in progress, but with the NFL playoffs coming up, I wanted to post what I have and will pick it up later.]

The Big East, in 2010-2011, is known for overachieving already, as a supposed “down year” for the conference still sees five Top 10 teams as conference play begins.  That being said, let us not now go too far overboard and overrate them, as they really have not played great competition (as typical for the Big East) and they most certainly have not been tested away from their cozy gyms.  Plus, it is hard not to be a much talked about conference when you have SIXTEEN teams.  But, all that being said, it is still going to be a fascinating Big East season.

[NOTE:  Much of this post – as all the conference previews – was written before even the non-conference games were played, so the “preview” will focus mostly on the personnel of each team, rather then their early season results.]

Conference Tidbits

• There are a slew of new coaches in the Big East:  Oliver Purnell (DePaul, from Clemson), Mike Rice (Rutgers, from Robert Morris), Kevin Willard (Seton Hall, from Iona), and Steve Lavin (St. John’s from UCLA via ESPN).
• Louisville has officially left Freedom Hall, where they enjoyed an all-time 682-141 record.  The Cardinals will begin play this year in the KFC Yum! Center (yes, that is actually the name of it…).
• The oft-overlooked Mike Brey will attempt to take Notre Dame to an 11th consecutive postseason this year – quite the achievement at a football school.
• When Pitt’s Ashton Gibbs was named the Big East’s Most Improved Player last year, it marked the 6th time in the last 11 years that a Pitt player has won that award.  Talk about an impressive under-the-radar statistic for the coaching ability of Jamie Dixon (and his predecessor, Ben Howland).  Do not be surprised if they make it 7 out of 12, as senior center, Cary McGhee, may have the inside track on the award this year.

Blue Ribbon’s All-Conference Teams

MVP:  Austin Freeman (Georgetown)
Kemba Walker (UConn)
Corey Fisher (Villanova)
Ashton Gibbs (Pittsburgh)
Kris Joseph (Syracuse)

TOP NEWCOMER:  Fab Melo (Syracuse)

BSB’s PICKS

1. Pittsburgh
2. Villanova
3. Syracuse
4. Georgetown
5. Connecticut
6. Notre Dame
7. West Virginia
8. Louisville
9. Marquette
10. Cincinnati
11. Seton Hall
12. St. John’s
13. Providence
14. Rutgers
15. S. Florida
16. DePaul

Lock Tournament Teams:  Pittsburgh, Villanova, Syracuse, Georgetown, Connecticut
Very Likely Tournament Teams:  Notre Dame, West Virginia, Louisville
Possible Tournament Teams:  Marquette, Cincinnati
Possible NIT Teams:  Seton Hall, St. John’s, Providence
Unlikely Postseason Teams:  Rutgers, S. Florida, DePaul

The Favorite – Pittsburgh

This is one of the reasons I love college basketball.  In one of the highest profile leagues that dominates the basketball hotbed of the Northeast, the generally accepted favorite to win the league is a team that has not started a high school McDonald’s All-American since 1987.  College hoops is still about coaching (not to be confused with prepping kids for the NBA), experience, and hard work.  The Pitt Panthers are the favorites to win the Big East and, just maybe, a national championship, and they start 3 seniors and 2 juniors – none of whom were big-time recruits out of high school, and none of whom are big-time recruits for the NBA.  But, what they are is a collection of very good college players.  And this is, after, college basketball.  If they weren’t “The” Favorite, they would be “My” Favorite.

The Team
While the intro here is correct in that none of these kids were stars in high school, and none will be stars in the pros, that is not to say that these are all “mediocre” players.  Two seniors – 6’6″ small forward Gilbert Brown and 6’2″ point guard Ashton Gibbs – both have the potential to be stars this year.  Brown is a unbelievable athlete, who can shine on both ends of the court and should, at the very least, be able to make up for the loss of Jermaine Dixon to graduation.  He is a solid defender inside and out and should be a prolific scorer.  He is also 23 years old, so he has the maturity to reel in his off-the-charts athleticism.  Gibbs, last year’s Most Improved Player in the Big East, might take yet another jump this year.  He has in-the-gym range on his jumpshot and is a terrific free throw shooter.  He is not exactly a pure point guard, so his decision-making might be questionable, at times, but there is no doubt that he can score with anyone in the country.

After Gibbs and Brown, the Panthers starting lineup will consist of, well, what it always consists of – a bevy of “glue” guys who know their roles, play great defense and do all the little things it takes to win ball games.  Cary McGhee has the best potential to emerge as a leader on this team, as he has that blue-collar Pittsburgh Steeler mentality, and could show some skills to back it up this year.  He is a ferocious rebounder and an absolute rock on the defensive end.  He does not just occupy the lane, he takes possession of it.  He is not exactly refined offensively (and is a terrible free throw shooter), but can pick up some garbage points on tip-ins and busted plays.

The starting lineup will be rounded out by a couple of Philly area kids.  The starting 2-guard (at least for now) is probably going to be 6’4″ senior, Brad Wanamaker.  Wanamaker, a Roman Catholic product, is incredibly versatile and one of those guys that just about every coach covets.  He played every game last year at small forward, so he is not opposed to mixing it up, but he also has a dependable jumpshot.  He is an excellent passer and is already an outstanding defender and could become elite by the end of the year.  He can guard three separate positions and should give the Panthers a ton of flexibility with their lineups.  The other projected starter is 6’5″ junior Nasir Robinson, out of Chester High.  Robinson is one of those guys where if you remember to scheme to stop him, it is not difficult to do, but if you focus too much on stopping guys like Gibbs or Brown, Robinson can absolutely kill you.  Overall, he is a real gamer, who does the dirty work.  A very good rebounder, Robinson knows what is a smart shot and what is not.  The weakness here is, like McGhee, Robinson is an abymal free throw shooter (42% last year).

The Pitt teams of the past have had decent seasons, but never quite enough to make big splashes in the postseason (aka…the Final Four).  Why would this year be different?  Well, it might not be, but if there is a reason to believe that it is, that reason would be the depth.  The Panthers do have a number of solid bodies coming off the bench, led by sophomore Travon Woodall, a 5’11” NYC point guard, who would probably be starting for 90% of teams in the country.  A good shooter and a great playmaker, Woodall actually made 11 starts as a freshman last year.  The other real firepower for Dixon on the pine is another sophomore, 6’9″ power forward, Dante Taylor.  Taylor is actually the first McDonald’s All-American to go to Pitt since Brian Shorter and Bobby Martin in 1987.  He is only the fifth in the school’s history (Charles Smith in 1984 and Jerome Lane in 1985).  Though many look at Taylor’s freshman year as a disappoinment, those who followed the Panthers believe he just was not a plug-in-and-play kind of recruit, and he might be on the verge of reaching his potential this year or next.  If it is this year, watch out, because he certainly has talent.  The rest of the bench is rounded out by a long and lean 6’7″ sophomore with jet-like quickness and a decent offensive game inside, J.J. Richardson, and three potentially impressive freshman – small forward Lamar Patterson (a tough, versatile player who reminds Dixon a lot of Robinson), shooting guard J.J. Moore (who can flat-out score, but lacks the ballhandling and passing skills to really be an effective guard just yet), and point guard Isaiah Epps (another NYC-area point guard, who is a terrific passer and is actually the first-cousing of Woodall).

Are They Better Than Last Year?
On paper, there is no doubt that this team is far more talented than last year’s version.  The only player of any consequence that has not returned in Jermaine Dixon – a very good player, but is replaceable if Brown takes the leap that most think he will.  This year’s Gibbs is better; this year’s McGhee is better; and, they now have multiple viable options off the bench.  So, yes, this team should be better than last year’s team, though it is unsure whether they can accomplish another top 2 finish in this league.

Question Marks?
Free-Throw Shooting?  While Gibbs is one of the best FT shooters in the nation, the two bigs that should get the most minutes (McGhee and Robinson) are downright abysmal (57% and 42%, respectively).  In close games, Dixon will have to make the decision of whether he is willing to sacrifice his inside presence to avoid having teams send those two parading to the line.

The Best Player on the Court Theory?  As much as I love college hoops for being a team game, when the chips are down, I still subscribe to the old basketball adage of “put you money on the best player on the court.”  This year, Pitt will probably be in the Top 10 all season long, but most of their important games will probably feature the best player on the court wearing different colors.  Do not get me wrong, I think Brown and Gibbs are terrific players, but neither are elite, and, in the end, great teams win games, great players win championships.

Their Ceiling
Despite the second question mark, there is no way that I cannot reasonably say that this is one of the handful of championship caliber teams in the nation this year.  Jamie Dixon might be the most underrated coach in the country, and he has a ton of experience and talent this year.  I think Pitt will win the Big East and might finally get to the Final Four, and I would not be totally shocked if they are cutting down the nets come April.

My Favorite – Georgetown
Everyone will be talking about what this team lost…well, at least until they see what they still have.  The recipe was always going to be interesting – a Princeton-style team with elite athletes – but we were not always sure that interesting meant successful.  And, to be fair, despite a run to the Final Four in 2007, the jury is still out on John Thompson III at Georgetown, but this might be the best chance he has to erase the awful memories of bad upsets to Davidson in 2008 and Ohio last year (with a 7-11 Big East season in between).

The Team
There are a few players every year that absolutely leave me in awe, and it is not usually the most bally-hooed players in the country.  Blake Griffin was good, but never “did it for me.”  Guys like Terrance Williams, Lamar Odom, and Jameer Nelson, on the other hand, were absolutely must-watch players for me, for whatever reasons.  This year, that guy is Austin Freeman.  Freeman, a 6’3″ senior is absolutely phenomenal and scratches me right where I itch, as a basketball fan.  I think what I like most about him is that he plays the game so effortlessly, on both ends of the floor, yet has a quiet intensity and confidence, so that he demands the ball with the game on the line.  The beginning of this year will be all about whether or not Georgetown will be able to survive playing without Greg Monroe, but it will not take long for the conversation to switch to how anyone will be able to survive playing against Austin Freeman.  He scores effortlessly with a deceptive quickness and a lights-out, quick-release jumpshot.  He looks like he is not even trying, when in fact, he just abuses guys on both ends.  Teaming up with 6’1″ senior point guard Chris Wright (a do-it-all point guard whom I think is also an absolute star) might create – dare I say it – the best backcourt duo in the country.  Throw in a healthy dose of the third guard, 6’2″ junior sharpshooter Jason Clark and you have yourself the best backcourt in America (you probably heard it here first…).  While Freeman and Wright are refined, solid, and superstars, Clark has a little work to do on his game for this level.  He needs to take better care of the ball and take better shots, knowing that there might be better options elsewhere.  He is a very good defender and a decent passer.

Another aspect forgotten in the loss of Monroe is that the frontcourt now belongs to Julian Vaughn, and he should be able to step up and produce.  A very talented frontcourt player, Vaughn a 6’9″ senior, who played his freshman year at Florida State, was in the Monroe shadow a year ago and could take this opportunity to shine.  He does need to work hard on the glass, especially because this is a very small team, but his offensive game is refined enough to make a big jump in the scoring department.  He will be bolstered down low by probably sixth-man Henry Sims, who, though a bit of a project, is the only one on the roster with true low-post ability.  The other starter in the frontcourt will most likely be the 6’7″ sophomore, Hollis Thompson.  Thompson, long and lean, might be the player the Hoyas would most like to see make the leap this year, and where they would like to see that is on the glass.  Thompson, not that great a rebounder his freshman year, may be looked upon to pick up some big boards for this team if he wants crunch-time minutes.  He also needs to work on shot selection, as though he could be a very good scorer, there are better options – at least this year – for G’town.

The rest of the depth on this team will come from a stable of first- or second-year players, all of whom have immense talent.  6’7″ sophomore Jerrelle Benimon will be asked to provide tough rebounding ability off the bench.  6’3″ sophomore Vee Sanford is a lightning-quick combo guard, who can slash to the basket very effectively, but needs to work on his outside shot.  6’8″ freshman Nate Lubick is a coach’s son, who actually was a two-time Massachusetts state player of the year in high school.  He is a big body with a soft touch around the basket and is a great passer.  6’0″ freshman Markel Starks is another lightning-quick combo guard who has a lot of game.  Starks might be the Hoyas go-to guy as early as next year, as he can shoot the lights out and get to the rim.  For now, he is just a nice piece off the bench, as he develops.  6’9″ freshman Moses Abraham is a big Nigerian with absolutely no offensive skills, but possesses a gigantic wingspan and great defensive intution.  Thompson actually believes he could be a star in the Big East some day.   Rounding out the bench will be 6’5″ freshman Aaron Bowen, whose 6’11” wingspan makes him an excellent defender (especially in the zone).  Bower has a quick first-step to the basket and has a pretty well-developed midrange game for a freshman.  He also runs the court really well and is no doubt firmly in the plans for the future of the Hoyas.

Are They Better Than Last Year?
This is hard to say because, as good as I think this team is, it is not exactly easy to replace a big man who was an NBA lottery pick.  And, to make matters worse, they don’t really have any reliable back-to-the-basket players on the roster.  That being said, I am going to go out on a limb and say, “yes” they are going to be better this year than last.  I think their backcourt is just too good not to be able to make up for the lack of rebounding.  Plus, Chris Wright is not only an elite player, but an elite leader and should have this team ready to play each and every night in an always-tough Big East.

Question Marks?
Rebounding?  We have sort of belabored this point, but this team lacks size and strength down low, especially if they decide to start Thompson over Sims (which is likely).  If Vaughn and Thompson can step up their rebounding then this team could soar.  If not, who knows?

The Princeton Style?  As I mentioned in the open, the jury is still out on whether or not this style can translate to the top tier of college basketball.  Thompson has proven that he can still recruit to this style (one of the major question marks), but he has not proven – other than the one Final Four run on the backs of two legit NBA’ers – that he can win in March with this style.

Their Ceiling
Though I dislike most things “Georgetown” (mainly their enrollees), I actually love this team…as evident by my dubbing them “My Favorite.”  However, I am still unsure as to whether or not they actually have national championship potential.  Unlike Pitt (and maybe another team or two in this conference), I probably would be surprised to see this team cut down the nets in April, and that is why I am going to put their ceiling at Final Four.  I just do not think they have the size to win six straight March games against the elite competition.  I could see them coming out of a regional, but I cannot see them then winning two Final Four games.

Elite – Villanova
Gone are Scottie Reynolds and Reggie Redding, but the Wildcats may not miss a beat.  They have one of the best coaches in the business and they have a load of talent.

The Team
With Reynolds gone, this team will be turned over to the two Coreys.  While 6’5″ Corey Stokes is an emerging player, who has become very good on the defensive end to add to an elite jumpshooter, the real star on this team is 6’1″ point guard Corey Fisher.  Fisher, now out of the shadow of Reynolds, may become a national superstar.  He is a do-it-all kind of lead guard who led the team last year in assists and was second in scoring and steals.  His jumpshot is improving, while his slashing and playmaking ability is already there.  Expect a big year from Fisher.

The ‘Cats, as usual, will go with a third guard to join the Coreys, as Jay Wright loves his run-and-gun style.  The most likely candidate for that third guard is 6’2″ sophomore Maalik Wayns, who is already an outstanding defensive player and could harness his lightning quickness to become a go-to offensive player, as well.  Wayns, who worked extensively in the offseason with former Villanova “third guard,” Kyle Lowry, can model his game after the current NBA guard because he has that kind of quickness.  But, like Lowry, he needs to rein in his turnovers.  Other contenders for this starting spot are 6’6″ sophomore Dominic Cheek, a highly-touted recruit who struggled in his freshman year, and 6’7″ sophomore Isaiah Armwood, who is very athletic and great on the defensive end.  Cheek can absolutely score in bunches, so he will be invaluable, whether he does end up starting or not.  Armwood, a long athletic player could be invaluable in his ability to guard multiple positions on the floor.  The backcourt could also be bolstered by an All-American recuit, 6’5″ James Bell, but the team is unsure whether or not he will play at all this year because of a stress fracture in his foot.  If he does play, Bell may be the best athlete on the team – a long wing player from Florida who basically recruited himself because he loved the style of play on the Main Line.

The frontcourt, normally an afterthought on ‘Nova, is actually much better than most national people will give them credit for.  6’8″ senior Antonio Pena is not going to wow anyone with his athleticism or his low-post moves, but he is a very strong and sturdy post player.  The big question for Pena is whether or not he can stay out of foul trouble.  And, then there is maybe the ultimate X-factor in this entire league.  The starting center will be Mouphtaou Yarou, a 6’10” sophomore from a small town in Northern Benin, West Africa.  (Ironically, it is a town that is about 40 miles from a small village across the Togolese border in which I lived for 2 years – Yarou’s hometown is Natitingou, which is the center of the Tamberma people and is an stunningly beautiful town which I have visited many times.  Okay, enough about me…back to Yarou).  With this only his third year of competitive basketball, there is no telling just how much Yarou will improve with every practive and game in which he participates.  He has already shown exceptional skills for a newbie to the game, so the sky is the limit for this kid.  The ‘Cats have two decent frontcourt options off the bench, as well.  They have 6’11” sophomore Maurice Sutton who is an unbelievable shotblocker and very good offensive rebounder and 6’7″ freshman Jayvaughn Pinkston.  Pinkston, a Brooklyn kid, is a McDonald’s All-American with an incredible array of skills for a guy with his size.  While only 6’7″, he has the strength and tenacity to really mix it up down low, but he also possesses a refined outside game not seen in many guys that tall.  He has a great handle and very good passing skills to go along with a legit low-post scoring ability.  He could develop into a real star for this team.

Are They Better Than Last Year?
Probably not, but, considering how last season ended, I might have to rethink that answer.  Last year’s team, with the great Scottie Reynolds, started 20-1 and reached as high as #2 in the polls.  However, last year’s team had no real size to speak of.  This year, with a more developed Yarou and Pena and the additions of Sutton and Pinkston, they might have the size to avoid needing overtime against Robert Morris and getting flat-out beat by St. Mary’s.

Question Marks?
Size?  This is always a question mark because of the style of play that Jay Wright plays and, more importantly, the recruiting niche that has been created by that style of play (for example, getting a run-and-gunner like James Bell simply because he loved that style).  I guess the main question marks here are individual to the four big men in the rotation.  Can Antonio Pena play without fouling?  Can Mouph Yarou develop into a dependable big?  Can Maurice Sutton emerge as a legit 6’11” big?  Is Jayvaughn Pinkston ready for big-time college hoops?

Go-To Guy?  Can Corey Fisher become the go-to guy that Scottie Reynolds was his whole career at ‘Nova?  And, can Stokes or Wayns step up and become a legit #2?

Their Ceiling
Much like Georgetown, I can definitely see this team making a run at the Final Four, but I am not yet convinced that they have what it takes to win a national championship.  The demons that haunted them last year have not really been addressed, and they have only added more question marks, with the departure of one of the best players in school history.  I think the ceiling for the ‘Cats is getting to the Final Four in Houston, but I do not see them winning a title there.

Elite – Syracuse
Syracuse, in many ways, a lot like Villanova this year.  They lost their best player (Wesley Johnson) and a very reliable off-guard (Andy Rautins), but they have a ton of pieces leftover from a very good team last year that could gel to create another very good team this year.

The Team
A lot of the success of this team this year is going to rely on whether or not some of these former role players can become big-time Big East stars.  With the whole starting five having that “breakout” potential, there is real reason to think that at least one or two can make that jump.  The most likely breakout player is last year’s Big East Sixth Man of the Year (and only a bench player because of Johnson), 6’7″ junior small forward Kris Joseph.  Joseph is Syracuse’s leading returning scorer and stealer (if that is a word) and is second among returnees in rebounding.  And, that was all off the bench.  This team might be the Joseph show from the opening tip.

But, he shouldn’t be without assistance, as there are two other guys who are most likely ready for big-time basketball, and the two of which I speak were high school teammates at Neumann.  6’2″ point guard Scoop Jardine has resurrected a college career that was a bit derailed by immaturity.  Jardine was fantastic off the bench, backing up Rautins, last year and should be ready to lead the team this year, whether he is playing his natural point guard spot or sliding over to the 2-guard.  His high school teammate that may have the biggest upside on this team this year is 6’9″ senior Rick Jackson.  Jackson, a ferocious rebounder, put a lot of time into his offensive game in the offseason and it could pay major dividends.  Because of the star power at the ‘Cuse last year, Jackson was a bit of an afterthought, but he was thrust into action in the NCAA Tournament when an injury to starting center Arinze Onuaku forced Jackson (the only remaining reliable big) to play center throughout the postseason.  Jackson was up-and-down in the tournament, but was playing out of position and showed signs of brilliance amidst his inconsistency.  Jackson may be the key to the entire season for Syracuse this year.  If he can step up and be a legit post presence, this could be a very difficult team.

The other two projected starters are both very intriguing for very different reasons.  6’4″ sophomore Brandon Triche should get to start at the point from day one, with Jardine sliding to the two.  If Triche can be a steady presence in the backcourt, it could take the ballhandling duties off of Jardine and allow him to just focus on scoring.  Triche, who has great size for a point guard, does lack footspeed for the position, and it got him in trouble, particularly against some of the quicker guard in the Big East last year, but it is not as big of a problem on this team because of their exclusive commitment to the zone defense.  Triche’s length probably more than makes up for his lack of quickness because of that 2-3 zone defense.  The other intriguing player on this team is a guy that no one really knows from whom just how much we can expect, and that is 7’0″ freshman Fab Melo.  One of the greatest names to hit the college hoops scene in some time, the Brazilian big man is very raw, but very agile for a 7-footer.  Some say that he could be the best freshman big man in the country, while others say he may struggle to even earn playing time as a frosh.  Obviously, the reality is probably somewhere in between, but if it is anyone near the former, Syracuse could be deadly.  Melo, who picked up basketball upon his arrival in the States before his junior year of high school, was an avid soccer player in his soccer-crazed home country.  But, with only two years of basketball, Melo was named a McDonald’s All-American.  Because of his soccer training, he is incredibly agile and very good at understanding passing lanes.  His length and that spatial understanding will probably make him incredible in Boeheim’s zone, if he can quickly pick up the fundamentals.  He is also a surprisingly good shooter for such a raw talent, which, along with his size and athleticism, has NBA scouts drooling already.  But, as we have seen before, just because the NBA is paying attention does not mean automatic stardom in college.  As good as he may appear, he is still a bit of a project.

Fortunately for Coach Boeheim, there are some other big bodies off the bench in case Melo does not get it right away.  Another 7-footer, sophomore Dashonte Riley is a good passer and excellent defender.  Baye Moussa-Keita is another big body (6’10”), but is a very raw freshman from Senegal.  He could see some minutes if there are minutes to be had because he is incredibly athletic.

Size is not the only thing Syracuse can bring off the bench this year.  They have some potential stardom there, as well.  6’6″ redshirt sophomore Mookie Jones is a lights-out shooter, who has not seen much playing time in his two years at the ‘Cuse because of attitude issues that often translate to bad decisions on offense and all-around poor defensive play.  If he can get himself together, he could be a big-time player for the Orange and maybe one day in the Association.  Dion Waiters is a 6’3″ freshman guard (and cousin of Jardine), whom Boeheim called “the personification of a scoring guard.”  Waiters has great athleticism, strength, and quickness and can get to the rim at will.  He is still developing an outside shot, which other Big East teams are hoping he never develops because he is already a handful and could become unstoppable with a good jumpshot.  6’8″ sophomore small forward James Southerland is one of those players that would have any coach drooling.  He did not play much at all his freshman year because he was stuck behind Johnson and Joseph, but when he did, he showed signs of absolute brilliance.  He is freakishly athletic, as seen by his highlight reel dunking ability.  However, discipline is what may haunt Southerland, as he struggles in fundamentals like ballhandling and defense.  He also can be pushed around inside, so he needs to get stronger.  And, finally, the one guy that may be forgotten on this team who could emerge as one of the more important pieces to this team is 6’7″ freshman C.J. Fair.  Fair, who was pegged early on as maybe the top prize of the 2010 recruiting class, tore his ACL at the end of his sophomore year and sort of fell off the radar.  He recovered to have a very good senior year, but was still under-recruited.  Syracuse believes they may have a steal here.  Fair is an excellent defender and his long, lean frame makes his absolutely perfect for the 2-3 zone.  He is also very polished on the offensive end with very smooth ball skills and an excellent jumpshot.  Fair should see significant minutes right off the bat and may become one of the better freshman in the Big East.

Are They Better Than Last Year?
Well, they lost a lot.  Wesley Johnson was the Big East Player of the Year last year and an NBA lottery pick; Andy Rautins was a dead-eye shooter and very good college 2-guard; and, Arinze Onuaku was a very dependable, if not excellent, big man.  Throw in the fact that they won the Big East last year and were a #1-seed in the tournament, and it is not hard to expect a step backwards this year.  The question is just how big of a step?  Last year, they entered the season trying to replace Johnny Flynn, Eric Devendorf, and Paul Harris.  The year before they lost do-everything forward Donte Green.  So, this is not new for the ‘Cuse, and I think they are as well-suited, if not more so, this year to pick up the pieces.  I do not think they will be better, but I am not sure that they will be all that much worse.

Question Marks?
Melo?  Fab Melo is clearly the biggest question mark.  He can be anywhere from boom to bust, with the chances pretty much equal on either side and anywhere in between.

A Star?  Last year, Wesley Johnson broke out and carried this team to a phenomenal season.  This year, the pieces are in place, but is there someone that can do what Johnson did last year?

Their Ceiling
This might be an interesting answer, considering my takes on Villanova and Georgetown.  I do think this team can win a national championship, even though, if I were a betting man, I would more likely bet on Villanova or Georgetown to get to Houston.  I think that, if it all falls right for the Orange, they have a national championship-type roster.  This team might be a middling team in the Big East if things do not go as planned, but if the right pieces fall into place, this could be the best team in the country.

The Team to Watch – Notre Dame
No one seems to give Mike Brey the credit he may deserve (including me), probably because he seems to underachieve with some pretty good talent.  But, let us think about it.  Other than Luke Harangody (the only Big East player to ever average 20-10 for a career), how good were those teams?  Is it not enough to just sit back and say, “Wow, Notre Dame has 10 consecutive postseason appearances?”  I think so.  And, now that the winningest senior class in school history has graduated, we might be able to parse out whether or not Brey is a good coach or just a coach that happens to get good players.

The Team
This year’s team has experience, that is for sure.  And, you can never underestimate experience in college hoops.  The five main guys in this rotation are three 5th-year seniors, a 4th-year senior, and a 4th-year sophomore.  The best of the bunch is probably the 4th-year junior, 6’8″ small forward Tim Abromaitis.  Abromaitis was the runner-up last year to Ashton Gibbs for the Big East Most Improved Player Award and, if I had a vote, he would have gotten my vote over Gibbs.  Coming into last year (after a redshirt year), he had scored a combined 20 points in 12 career games.  He nearly averaged that per game last year (16.1) when he finally got to play.  This year, Abromaitis becomes the go-to guy on a mid-level Big East team.  But, there is a lot more than just the guy who sounds like a disease.

The backcourt will be manned by 4th-year sophomore Scott Martin (who sat out one year after transferring from Purdue and another year with a medical redshirt) and 5th-year senior Ben Hansbrough (who sat out a year after transferring from Mississippi State).  Martin, who is huge (6’8″) for a guard started all but two of Purdue’s games as a freshman three years ago, but decided to transfer to Notre Dame.  After sitting out a year, he tore his ACL at the beginning of last year and received a medical redshirt, so he is quite eager to begin his career here with the Irish.  And, they are eager to have him here.  A big-time scorer, Martin may be leaned on to provide serious scoring punch for this team this year, as well as leadership in the backcourt.  Hansbrough, the younger brother of UNC’s all-time leading scorer Tyler Hansbrough, is quite different from his brother in some ways and quite similar in others.  While Tyler was a lanky big body and a ferocious rebounder, Ben is more of a smooth, poised guard with a pure jumpshot.  What they share is their passion for the game.  Tyler was celebrated for his energy and “motor.”  While not as evident because of the position he plays, Ben also plays with a high “motor” and a serious passion for the game.  Playing alongside Martin and Abromaitis, Hansbrough may be one of the more important players in the Big East this year.

While the three players on the wing – Martin, Hansbrough, and Abromaitis – are probably going to define just how good this team can be, the frontcourt should go a long way to seeing if they have the consistency to seriously contend for a Big East title.  The two starters with Abromaitis in the frontcourt are experienced, grizzled, and skilled.  6’7″ Carleton Scott is a solid low-post scorer, who can also step out and beat you with a jumpshot.  A good rebounder, Scott is also a very solid defender.  6’8″, 232-pound Tyrone Nash is a handful inside.  Along with being a big body, Nash has great footwork and is an adept passer out of the post.  He needs to play with more aggression, but maybe he was stifled playing alongside ‘Gody for so long.

After the starting five is where things get a little iffy for the Irish.  They have 6’9″, 240-pound sophomore bigs in Jack Cooley (who has a striking – and unfortunate – resemblence to Harangody) and Mike Broghammer, while the outside features a trio of promising freshmen.  The 6’1″ point guard from Columbia, MD, Eric Atkins might be the best of them.  Atkins may even push for a starting spot if he develops quickly enough, which would allow Brey to pick and choose his starting lineup and have an experienced scoring threat off the bench, depending on whom he decided to sit.  They also have 6’5″ slasher/scorer Jerian Grant (son of former NBA’er Harvey and brother of Clemson’s Jerai) and 6’7″ European-style point guard Alex Dragicevich. 

Are They Better Than Last Year?
It is going to be difficult because they have to try and go without, possibly, the best player in school history in Luke Harangody and a four-year starter in Tory Jackson.  But, honestly, I think they can be better.  They finished eighth in the Big East last year and, maybe because the league is not as good, I think they can better that finish this year.  They did win 23 games and nab a #6-seed in the NCAA Tournament, but they had a disappointingly non-competitive first round loss to Old Dominion, so I think they can better that too.  It is hard to say, but I can see the Irish at least equaling their success, despite the winningest class in school history graduating.

Question Marks?
Point Guard?  Their best five players are Martin, Hansbrough, Abromaitis, Scott, and Nash, but there really is not a point guard among them.  Martin will probably assume “point guard” duties, but he is more of a scorer than a distributor.  Hansbrough probably doesn’t have the handle or passing ability to really play the position, and Atkins is only a 170-pound frosh that would require sending one of the experienced guys to the bench.  I think they will be okay, but it is definitely something to look out for.

Defense?  Mike Brey is a good defensive coach, but he does not exactly have the best defensive players this year.  Martin is not great on the perimeter and Scott and Nash down low do not always put up a great fight against larger bodies.  Hansbrough and Abromaitis are probably the two best defenders, but they are not exactly shut-down guys either.  I think they can come together and play good “team defense,” but they have to really work at it.

Their Ceiling
The ceiling for this team is most likely the second weekend.  I could see them winning a game or two in the tournament, but, even if everything goes perfectly, they probably do not have Final Four talent. 

Contender – UConn
Well, I made wrote most of this before the season started, and maybe I should have waited until after the Kemba Walker Invitational (aka The Maui Invitational), but I want to hold firm to my “preseason” preview.  Nothing in this has really changed because I think there are still question marks surrounding this team.  But, they do look pretty good so far.

The Team
Well, it is going to start and end with Kemba Walker.  The 6’1″ junior point guard may be poised for stardom.  A very good player on a very good team as a freshman, Walker seemed to take a step back when asked to do more last year.  He looked like he was not ready to be anything more than a reserve guard.  But, this summer, he was asked to play against Team USA and he shined.  He gained confidence and, most important, a jumpshot.  Lightning-quick and great with the ball, if Walker can consistently hit jumpers, he could be as difficult to guard as anyone in the country.

Along with needing an emergence from Walker, the Huskies will also be looking for some emergence from some their last two recruiting classes.  Most of all, they will hope to see 6’0″ freshman Shabazz Napier to enable Walker to play off the ball.  If Napier (an absolute jet) can hold down starting point guard duties, that will enable Walker to be the go-to scorer that Calhoun thinks he can become.  The Huskies also expect to get some outside shooting help from two very heavily-recruited freshman 6’5″ Jeremy Lamb and 6’7″ German Niels Giffey.

Youth continues to rule on the wing and in the frontcourt.  Big-time recruit from Baltimore (via Oak Hill Academy), Roscoe Smith might even be the best of the bunch.  A 6’8″ power forward with an excellent jumpshot and the athletic ability of a small forward, Smith could see a lot of playing time right away for Coach Calhoun.  Another freshman, 6’9″ “shooting forward” Tyler Olander, could also see significant minutes in the frontcourt for the Huskies, as may 6’7″ sophomore swingman Jamal Coombs-McDaniel.  The latter, a heavily-recruited player in last year’s class struggled in limited minutes his freshman year, playing behind Stanley Robinson.  But, with Robinson gone, Coombs-McDaniel could play a major role in Storrs.  UConn may even be able to get something out of ray 6’10” freshman Michael Bradley.  But, the main man in down low for the Huskies this year will be 6’8″ bruiser Alex Oriakhi.  Oriahki, a strong, able-bodied big man from Boston started just about every game his freshman year, but provided very little, if any, offensive substance.  He was a menace on the boards and a solid defender, but for UConn to really take the next step, they may need Oriakhi to emerge as a legitmate low-post scorer – something which Calhoun believes he can do.

The one thing that this team may lack, however, is veteran leadership.  Though Walker is a grizzled veteran junior and the leader of this team, the rest of the real talent on this team is made up of all underclassmen, many of whom are freshmen.  However, the Huskies do have two experienced seniors to lean on during those tough Big East rough contests.  Backup two-guard, Donnell Beverly decided not to transfer and is back for his senior year.  The 6’4″ poised guard brings extra ballhandling and defense to the backcourt and could easily replace Napier if he is not ready for prime time, sliding Walker to the point.  And, down low, the veteran presence may come from the 7’0″ senior from Nigeria Charles Okwandu.

Are They Better Than Last Year?
Well, the bad news is that they lost two very good players in Jerome Dyson and Stanley Robinson.  The good news is that, despite those two, the team was not very good last year, so they do not have to do all that much to improve.  I think they will definitely be better than last year because I think this is a tournament team.  If Walker can be the superstar that many think he can be, and any one of Oriakhi, Napier, Smith, Lamb, Giffey, or Coombs-McDaniel can become a reliable number two, then this team should easily be better than last year and may even have a legit shot at making noise in March again.

Question Marks?
Walker?  I actually think that this is the least of their concerns because I believe that he is able to be outstanding, but I guess the main question is just how good can he be?  And, moreover, just how good does this team NEED him to be?  It might not matter if he is the best player in the country if the rest of these guys do not develop.

The Kids?  There is a lot of youth in Storrs, but in typical Calhoun fashion, they are extremely talented.  And, with one of the best coaches in the business pulling the strings, I expect them to be as good as advertised.

Napier?  If Shabazz Napier – a very heralded recruit – is able to play the point full time that will enable Walker to just score.  If not, and Walker has to move over to the point to play with either Lamb or Giffey or even Beverly, then this team all of sudden looks a lot less scary on the offensive end.

Their Ceiling
It is hard to say just how far this team can go, considering they were pretty bad last year and they lost two of the three best players.  But, I will say that they can go as far as Kemba Walker takes them.  To me, that sounds like the second weekend, at most.  I think they will make the tournament, but that might be all.  The best I see for this team is the Sweet Sixteen, which, with all this youth in a bounce-back season, would be a very nice result in Storrs.