Sweet Sixteen: Day Two

Last night’s games were pretty exciting.  The West Virginia-Xavier game was a terrific game.  Western Kentucky’s run against UCLA was somewhat surprising and exciting.  The Louisville-Tennessee game was incredibly sloppy and somewhat disappointing as far as how the Vols did not show up in the second half.  And, how good does UNC look right now?  Answer:  VERY good.  That was a good team that they manhandled last night.

As for tonight, it should be another great quartet of high-quality basketball games.

Friday 7:10:  #3 Wisconsin vs #10 Davidson
Cinderella, it’s getting close to midnight.  Is there one last dance left in the Davidson Wildcats?  That will be the question answered tonight.  Davidson and Stephen Curry have been, unquestionably, the story of this year’s tournament and probably the one non-champion that will be most remembered from this tournament.  They came from behind to knock off two ranked teams, including heavy favorite, Georgetown, in three days, and now their reward is a Sweet Sixteen matchup with the Wisconsin Badgers.

As good as Stephen Curry has been in the first two rounds, the most impressive thing in their two tournament games, for me (someone who, admittedly, did not watch one regular season SoCon game this year) has been the play of point guard Jason Richards.  I knew that Richards led the country in assists per game–by a wide margin at 8.0 per game–so he had to be a good player, but he has been terrific.  The other standout player for the Wildcats in the first two rounds has been big man, Andrew Lovedale.  Lovedale, like Curry and even Richards to a certain extent, does not play like a guy on a SoCon team.  At 6’8″, the guy has some solid post moves, a soft touch from as far out as 15 feet and is a tenacious rebounder.  He seems like he would be good enough to get a lot of minutes in a major conference.  So, this team is not just Curry–though without him, they certainly are not still playing.  Curry was absolutely terrific, scoring 70 points in the first two rounds (55 of those 70 were scored in the games’ second halves) and willed his team to victory.  It was obvious that he was the man that teams had to stop and two very well-coached teams still could not do it.  He may need a third straight career game tonight, though.

As good of a coach as Mark Few or John Thompson III are, I believe that there are a handful of coaches around the country that are head-and-shoulders above their peers in ability to maximize talent and flat-out win basketball games.  Bo Ryan is, without a doubt, on this list.  Ryan, a Philly guy through and through, has made a real name for himself in Madison.  If I were to ask:  “What Big 10 school has the most league victories since 2001?”  I don’t know how many people would answer Wisconsin with their first guess.  In fact, I probably would have said Michigan St.  Many may have guessed Indiana, but it actually is Wisconsin.  And Ryan (who arrived in Madison in 2001) has done it with how many “stars?”  Off the top of my head, I can only think of one Bo Ryan-coached player that is a really good NBA player–Devin Harris.  Alando Tucker was drafted by Phoenix, but has only played 12 minutes this year.  I don’t think Kammron Taylor is in the league, and Kirk Penny had a cup of coffee.  So, Ryan does it without pro talent–and he does it every year.

This year, he is led by seniors Brian Butch and Michael Flowers.  I have said many times that I believe Flowers to be one of the five best perimeter defenders in the country–more on this in a minute.  The Badgers have also seen production from junior Marcus Landry and sophomores Brian Bohannon (sharp-shooter extraordinaire) and rising-star Trevon Hughes.  Hughes, Landry, and Butch provide just enough offense to allow the defense to carry the day.  This defense is led by Flowers, a high energy guy who almost always draws the other team’s best perimeter scorer.  I wonder where this leads us…

THE PICK:  For Davidson to win this game, they are going to need another big-time performance from Stephen Curry.  Honestly, I just do not see that happening against Michael Flowers.  This matchup is the key to this game, and I give the advantage to the defender.  That combined with the fact that Bo Ryan had 5 days to prepare for Davidson leads me to believe that Wisconsin will win this game somewhat handlely, though the score may seem close because the Badgers do not really blow people out.  I expect Wisconsin to be playing again on Sunday.

Friday 7:27:  #2 Texas vs #3 Stanford
As I said when talking about the Louisville-Tennessee matchup yesterday, if you had told me that Texas and Stanford would meet in this year’s tournament, I would have guessed that it was at least an Elite Eight game, if not in the Final Four.  But, we get this game in the Sweet Sixteen.  As much as I was looking forward to the big 2-3 matchup yesterday, I have been even more excited for this one.

Stanford comes in with incredibly strong credentials for a #3 seed.  They were clearly the second-best team in the best conference.  They played a decent non-conference schedule and only tripped up once (a road loss to Siena).  They then reached the finals of the Pac 10, before losing a close one to UCLA.  They were undefeated at home and 26-7 overall, with two of the losses in overtime.  This team is really, really good.  Everyone knows about the Lopez twins, particularly Brook (the All-American), but another guy who has been maligned all year is their point guard Mitch Johnson.  I watched a good amount of Stanford games and never understood why people were so down on him.  He is not a big-time scorer (less than 7 ppg), but he is a great floor general and a very good perimeter defender.  He will be tested tonight.  They also have some really nice parts other than the Lopez’s, in SG Anthony Goods and swingman Lawrence Hill.  This is an experienced, confident team with a superstar and a defensive mindset.  They play fundamental basketball and believe in each other–that all adds up to a tough draw.

On the other side, I will say it again–I think Rick Barnes is a fantastic coach.  I might be the only one outside of Austin, TX, who thinks that, but I really do.  I think he does a lot with not as much talent as people give him credit for.  Yes, he recruited Kevin Durant and D.J. Augustin, but as we have seen often, one superstar on the college level is not enough anymore.  This team starts with Augustin, who is probably the best point guard in the country, but A.J. Abrams can really light it up, as evidenced by a pair of 26-point games in the tournament so far.  They also have incredible athleticism in Damion James (who has really developed into a big-time player in his own right) and Justin Mason.  Connor Atchley has also developed under Barnes to become a more than serviceable big man.  Atchley exhibits a rare combination of shot-blocking (69 on the year) and three-point shooting (38-87, 43.7%).  This team comes at you in all ways and can play different styles.  They are not that deep, but Stanford’s methodical offense should allow them to be okay in their 6-man rotation.

THE PICK:  In a really, really tough game to pick, I am going to go with the conference that I have been supporting all year–the Pac 10–and pick the Stanford Cardinal to win what is going to be a fantastic basketball game.  I obviously would not be surprised either way, but I just think that the experience and the heart of the twins, Johnson and Hill will be enough tonight.  I actually picked this team to go to the Final Four when the brackets came out and I am sticking with it.

Friday 9:40:  #1 Kansas vs #12 Villanova
The non-Cinderella 12-seed, Villanova, gets a dose of reality as they take on #1 seed Kansas.  The Wildcats pulled off a nice come-from-behind upset of Clemson in the first round and then caught a relative break with #13 Siena in the second round (though Siena is a really good team that will be easily the best mid-major next year–expect a 6 or 7 seed for the Saints in 2009).  However, I just do not see them with the horses to keep up with Kansas tonight.

 As Scottie goes, so goes ‘Nova.  Scottie Reynolds is the heart and soul of this team, and the Cats rely on him to carry them–oftentimes they rely on him too much.  He takes a lot of shots and makes a lot of shots.  The rest of the supporting cast is, in my opinion, either too young or just not that talented.  This, the last team in the field, will probably find themselves quite overmatched at times tonight.  That being said, Reynolds can easily go off for 40 and Jay Wright gets his teams prepared.  They will need all of Reynolds’ points and a big game on the inside from Dante Cunningham , if they want to pull off the upset.

On the other side, not all that many people are talking about Kansas because of the dominating performances of North Carolina.  This team might be playing the best basketball in the country right now–at the right time.  I have heard several coaches in the field give interviews and just about every one of them, when asked the question, “If not your team, who is the best team in the country?”  And, every one that I have heard answer the question, has said “Kansas.”  Granted, these are coaches who are often only focused on their teams and the teams they are playing, but that is saying something.  With Brandon Rush, Mario Chalmers, Darrell Arthur, Sherron Collins, Russell Robinson, Darnell Jackson, Sasha Kaun……….this team is just too deep and too good.  Plus, I think Bill Self is an excellent coach and will have them ready to play both tonight and on Sunday.

THE PICK:  I think it would take the game of Scottie’s life and then some for Villanova to pull off this upset.  They have had a very successful year, but I am pretty sure that it ends tonight.

Friday 9:57:  #1 Memphis vs #5 Michigan State
This is another very interesting game tonight.  Michigan St. has incredible talent (I even thought they were a national champion contender in my pre-season analysis), but has struggled at time incorporating the youth into the system.  They are finally playing at an incredibly high level and it may be just in time.  On the other side, Memphis, as they have for three years now, gone through a season of workman-like dominance.  Par for the course:  another 33-1 regular season, another Sweet Sixteen appearance, and no one believes in them.  This weekend will prove who is right and who is wrong.

For the Spartans, they are led by the inconsistent, but often brilliant, play of Drew Neitzel.  Neitzel, another much-maligned player, has put in two very good tournament games thus far.  They need him to continue to be that leader because no one else is really taking on that role.  Sophomore Raymar Morgan is probably the most talented player on the team and ought to be ready to be the leader of this team, but he does not seem to want that role.  Freshman Kalin Lucas is just that–a freshman–albeit, an immensely talented one.  Coach Tom Izzo has even said that Lucas is the fastest player he has ever coached, wow.  They have also started to get serious inside play from Goran Suton.  If he and the red-headed Drew Naimick can give State some bruising inside play, they have a shot tonight.

As I said in the opening paragraph, this Memphis team is a lot like its two predecessors, in that they had a dominating regular season and just kept winning in the tournament.  The other two fell a game short of the Final Four, and I am not too sure that this one won’t have the fate, but for now they have to take care of Michigan St. before we find out.  A very deep team that has just about everything you need on a basketball team.  They have a terrificly talented point guard, in Derrick Rose, who can score, but prefers to pass.  They have outside shooters who, on any given night, can range from capable to deadly (Doneal Mack, Antonio Anderson, Willie Kemp).  They have two absolutely bruising, defensive-minded bigs, who are skilled offensively as well and who work in tandem, so they can limit foul trouble and fatigue (Robert Dozier and Joey Dorsey).  They have a high-energy swingman (Shawn Taggart) and a high-energy point guard (Andre Allen) off the bench.  And, to top it all off, they have a superstar who can almost score at will (and often does), but does not need to score to be effective (Chris Douglas-Roberts).  This team is stacked and we all know that Coach Cal will have them playing with the requisite chip on their shoulders.

THE PICK:  There is so much made of Memphis’s poor free throw shooting (and somewhat deservedly so, since they are the second worst in the country) that you would think that every game comes down to free throws.  Yes, Memphis shoots an abysmal and embarrassing percentage from the free-throw line.  However, they did shoot poorly all year and still went 33-1.  THIRTY-THREE AND ONE!  Yes, they played in Conference USA, but they completely rolled through that league and only lost one game in the MOST DIFFICULT non-conference schedule in the country.  A few of the teams that they beat this year:  Oklahoma, UConn, USC, Cincinnati, Arizona, Siena, Gonzaga, Richmond, etc.  If free throws were such a detriment to their ability to win basketball games, then don’t you think they might have lost more than one game against some of the better teams in the country?  I am not saying that it won’t be their demise eventually, but I am saying that they made it this far with bad free-throw shooting, so I am not picking against them now.  I think Memphis wins tonight, and fairly easily.