Baseball Preview: BSB-Style

 FINAL:  Catching up on past BSB stuff, we decided to update our 2008 MLB Competition.  The regular print was the original preview.  The italicized portion was the midseason update (during the All-Star Break), and this italicized and underlined portion is the final assessment. 

UPDATE:   As many of you know, BSB runs its season previews a little differently than most.  We have a little game in which Doogan and Bry pick teams, like a draft, and whether they think that they will be better or worse than they were a year ago.  The baseball preview was done about a week into the season, and is reference below.  In italics, are the updates to this picks, as of the All-Star break.  All “projections” are based strictly on winning percentage at the All-Star break.  The scores after each one represent how it would play out if the second half mirrored the first (with the “locks” in parentheses).  So, without further ado, here is the update to our Baseball Preview.  If you have already read the preview, just skip through to the parts in italics.

As some of you may know, the way we do season previews is a little different than the norm (shocking, huh?).  Instead of just writing who we think will win their division or the MVP or who we think will be a “sleeper,” we like to make it a little competition between the two of us.  What we do is a draft.  Since Bry went first in the NBA preview, Doogan will have the first pick for MLB.  He will pick any team and then choose the over/under on their total wins this year, with the line being last year’s win total.  He can pick any team and either over or under for any team.  It involves a little strategy, a little knowledge, and a little je ne sais quoi.  Okay, well, maybe it doesn’t take any of them, but it’s still a somewhat fun way to do a season preview.  So, without further intro, Doogan is on the clock…

DOOGAN 1. Colorado Rockies – UNDER 90 wins: Admittedly, we’re kind of cheating by doing this over a week into the season but, honestly, I would have picked the Rockies here even if we had done this before the season started.  Their slow start only makes it easier.  I don’t see their pitching staff repeating what they did last season, and I certainly don’t see them winning 21 out of 22 games at any point.  Especially in a fairly tough division, this looks like a .500 team to me, not a 90-win team.

UPDATE:  Doogan is on his way to grabbing an easy victory with his #1 pick, as the Rockies have been rather terrible this year, and project to no where near the 90 wins that they had last year.  They currently project to only 66 wins, and are actively shopping Matt Holliday (to teams like the Phillies, by the way).  Even if, as some are predicting, they get red-hot again in the second half and win the division, I do not see any way that they can hit the 90-win mark.

FINAL:  An easy opening win for Doogan, as the Rockies, despite a strong August, finished 16 games worse this year than last at 74-88
DOOGAN 1 – BRY 0

BRY 2. Tampa Bay Rays – OVER 66 wins:  There is real hope in Tampa Bay this year about a potential .500 season.  Honestly, I do not see 81 wins out of this team, in this incredible division, but I also do not think they will be the worst team in baseball again this year.  I like Matt Garza and they have a true stud at the top of the rotation, in Kazmir.  Plus, they just exercised their option on Carl Crawford, so he is probably going to stick around for the whole season.  66 wins is a tiny number.  They will probably hit the 70-mark, at least.

UPDATE:  Bry also seems to be well on his way to hitting with his #1 pick.  The surprise story of the year was predicted here first (well, unless you count the part that says “I do not see 81 wins out of this team.”  But, it is nice to be right, even when you are very wrong).  The Rays project to an astronomical 95 wins for the season.

FINAL:  Bry’s first pick proved…uh…a pretty good one.  You all know the stories of this turnaround, so I won’t bore you with more.
BRY 1 – DOOGAN 1

BRY 3. Los Angeles Dodgers – OVER 82 wins:  Yes, this division is really deep, but I honestly think that this is the best team in the division.  As Doogan hit on earlier, the Rockies are not a 90-win team, and the Diamondbacks are still young, plus the Giants are atrocious.  I like this team to win the division and probably around 90 games.  They have a wealth of starting pitching with Cy Young candidate, Brad Penny, the Japanese sensation Hiroki Kuroda, veteran Derrick Lowe, and Chad Billingsley.  Plus, apparently they have a lights-out prospect, Clayton Kershaw, who is supposed to be in the bigs by June.  Oh by the way, Joe Torre is the manager.

UPDATE:  Well, Bry thought this division was one of the best in baseball, and it turns out to be THE worst.  He is on his way to losing his second pick, though it is still up in the air.  Since the Dodgers need 83 wins to win it for Bry, and they only project to 78, we hand the point to Doogan, but it is still too close to call.

FINAL:  Thank you, Manny.  It looked like Bry was going to lose his #2 pick until that fateful day that Manny Ramirez headed to LA.  Though despite the NLCS appearance and the crazy media that followed the Dodgers for the last 2 months, they still only cleared this number by 2 wins, finishing 84-78.  Hey, a win is a win.
BRY 2 – DOOGAN 1

DOOGAN 4. Chicago White Sox – OVER 72 wins:  This team definitely under-achieved last year and has added Nick Swisher and Orlando Cabrera.  With returning talent like Jim Thome, Paul Konerko, Jermaine Dye, Mark Buehrle, Jose Contreras, and Bobby Jenks, it’s hard to imagine this team winning less than 80 games again.

UPDATE:  Doogan follows up on his great Colorado pick with another great pick at #4.  The White Sox project to 93 wins, as of the All-Star break, and Doogan only needs them to hit 73.  This one will come safely in for Doogan.

FINAL:  Another great pick for Doogan, as he nails his first two selections.  The White Sox had a really surprising year, winning their division and 89 games.
DOOGAN 2 – BRY 2

BRY 5. Cincinnati Reds – OVER 72 wins:  As the eternal optimist, I guess it is no surprise that I keep picking the over on teams.  I just think that this is another team that is going to be vastly improved this year.  They have a couple potential superstar pitchers in their early 20’s (Johnny Cueto in the bigs already, Homer Bailey in AAA) and a very underrated 1-2 punch in Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang.  And, they added Francisco Cordero to help the ‘pen.  Oh, and they have 57 games against the Pirates, Astros, and Cardinals.  Sounds like at least a 75-80 win team.

UPDATE:  Though, you do not think of the Reds has being one of this season’s positive surprises, they are well on their way to going over their win total of a year ago.  In fact, Bry predicted 75-80 wins, and they are on pace for 78.  He should get this one, but with only a 5 game cushion, we will still not call this race (especially since the Reds do not really look that good and could collapse).

FINAL:  A “surprising surprise,” as the Reds actually covered the OVER this year.  Under the radar, as it may be, and still disappointing for their fans, the Reds did actually improve by two games this year, winning 74.  Bry gets this one, barely.
BRY 3 – DOOGAN 2

DOOGAN 6. Minnesota Twins – UNDER 79 wins: Wow, I feel like the easy ones are off the board already.  I watched this team on Opening Night last week and it looks like they have Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Joe Nathan, and a whole lot of question marks.  If Francisco Liriano has a good, healthy season, they could push for 79 wins again, but any time you replace Johan Santana and Torii Hunter with Livan Hernandez and Carlos Gomez, you’re bound to take a step back.  I see them in the low-70’s range for wins this year.

UPDATE:  As solidly as Doogan nailed his first two picks, he seems well on his way to solidly missing his third pick.  Though, you cannot really blame him, as no one thought the Twins would be this good after losing their best hitter AND best pitcher in the offseason.  But, Gardenhire and company keep that machine rolling.  The Twins project to 90 wins, which is well over the 78 needed for Doogan to hit the under.  I think it is safe to call this one over and award Bry the point.

FINAL:  Doogan, after nailing the White Sox in the AL Central, misses on the Twins.  Any other year, Ron Gardenhire would have ran away with Manager of the Year, as the Twins were 8.5 games better this year after losing their best pitcher and, arguably, their best position player.  Doogan misses this one
BRY 4 – DOOGAN 2

BRY 7. Chicago Cubs – OVER 85 wins:  You’re right, Doogan, there are no easy picks left.  I would have also taken the Twins and the under, so nice pick.  I am going to go with the Cubbies.  They are a good team in a bad division, so I see them pushing 90 wins this year.  Then again, an injury to Zambrano or, dare I say it, Kerry Wood, may have this team facing some pitching problems.  Either way, I like them over 85 wins this year.

UPDATE:  Maybe the best team in baseball at the All-Star break, the Cubbies are well on their way to hitting the over and winning this one for Bry.  They project to 97 wins, and they just acquired Rich Harden.

FINAL:  An easy win for Bry, who only needed 86 wins to cover this OVER.  The Cubbies won 97 regular season games…oh, and 97 total games.
BRY 5 – DOOGAN 2

DOOGAN 8. Anaheim Angels – UNDER 94 wins:  This is maybe a tough team to bet against, because they are always good and Mike Scioscia is a great manager, but it looks like age and general injury problems are catching up to them.  Their ace, John Lackey, has started the year on the DL and Kelvim Escobar could potentially miss the entire season.  Also, Francisco Rodriguez is hurt and Vladimir Guerrero always looks like he’s about one awkward step from completely ruining his back.  They have a lot of money to spend, so they could always go out and get better, but this just has the makings of an injury-plagued season, which will make 94 a hard number to reach.  I’ll mark them down for 87-88 wins.

UPDATE:  Doogan said in his opening line, “this is a tough team to bet against,” and he is right.  This team, led by one of the two best managers in baseball, is right there again.  They project to 97 wins, which is only slightly over the 94 of last year, so this does not go solidly into Bry’s category, but it does look like Doogan will lose this one.

FINAL:  The only 100-win team was the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, which is a 6-game improvement from a year ago.  Doogan took a shot, but it didn’t come through as this team, again, was a great regular season team.
BRY 6 – DOOGAN 2

BRY 9. San Diego Padres – UNDER 89 wins:  Well, again, Doogan took my next pick, so I will go with a similar team in a similar situation.  It’s hard to bet against the Padres because of their recent success, but I just don’t see how this team wins 89 games again this year in such a tough division.  Trevor Hoffman is, all of a sudden, a question mark, Jim Edmonds is pretty much finished, and Khalil Greene (as much as I love him) is a middle-of-the-order bat for them (5th or 6th, depending on the handedness of the pitcher), which should tell you something about their lineup.  I don’t think they’ll lose anywhere near 89, but I don’t think they’ll win 89 either.

UPDATE:  Bry was right on with this pick, as it seems so far.  They only project to 63 wins, which is WAY off their 89 of a year ago.  This is safely into Bry’s pocket.

FINAL:  An easy win for Bry.  Did you realize that the Pads lost 99 games this year?  Ouch.  And, while we’re here, how awful would it be to be a Padres fan these days?  With your owner selling off his best parts because of divorce proceedings?  Remember it wasn’t that long ago when this team was actually pretty good.  Fortunately, there aren’t very many of Padre fans to have to suffer through this.
BRY 7 – DOOGAN 2

DOOGAN 10. Arizona Diamonbacks – OVER 90 wins:  I’m slightly hesitant with this pick, because this team over-achieved a bit last year by winning 90 games.  But, now that their plethora of talented young position players have the experience of winning a division title and a playoff series, and Dan Haren has joined Brandon Webb at the front of the rotation, it’s easy to see them going a step further this year and winning the National League pennant.  I’ll call them for 94 wins. 

UPDATE:  For the first month of the season, Doogan looked like a genius with this pick.  The D-Backs were, by far, the best team in baseball, through April, but then the wheels fell off–or, more accurately, they stopped hitting.  As of the All-Star break, Arizona only projects to an 80-win team, which is far from the 91 Doogan needs for the over.  I would not be surprised to see them recover and win the division and maybe 85-88 games, but it would take a miraculous second half to reach 91, so this will go safely to Bry

FINAL:  Wow did the D-Backs season just fall apart?  They were, by far, the best team in baseball for the first 6 weeks and they couldn’t even win a division that was won by an 84-win team–as they finished with 82.  Pretty devastating.  We’ll see if they can actually add a hitter in the offseason.
BRY 8 – DOOGAN 2

BRY 11. Saint Louis Cardinals – UNDER 78 wins:  I know that they’re off to a really fast start, but this team is not very good (sorry, Mike).  I know that Albert Pujols is the best player of all-time, but can you really count on a full year of health out of Troy Glaus and a full year of production out of Rick Ankiel?  I know that Chris Carpenter comes back around the All-Star break, but you do not know what you’re going to get when he gets back.  And, I definitely know that a weak lineup and a Wainwright-Lohse 1-2 combination in the rotation is a recipe for a 70-win team.

UPDATE:  Dead wrong.  That is all we can say about this assessment and the corresponding selection.  Kyle Lohse looks like a Cy Young candidate and Rick Ankiel is becoming a star.  Ryan Ludwick has emerged and the Cards will probably get the most trade deadline pitching help because they get Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright off the DL.  It is a pretty safe bet that this team easily eclipses 77 wins, as they currently project to 89.  Point:  Doogan.

FINAL:  If there is any doubt that Albert Pujols deserved the MVP, just look around at the rest of this roster and ask yourself how many games the Cardinals would have won if they traded Pujols for Howard straight-up last offseason.  I’d be willing to bet, as an obvious Phillies fan, that that number wouldn’t be anywhere near 86–which is how many they won with Albert.  Point to Doogan on the bad call by Bry.
DOOGAN 3 – BRY 8

DOOGAN 12. Detroit Tigers – OVER 88 wins:  I’m going to take a bit of a risk here and bet on the 1-8 Tigers to right the ship and top 88 wins.  There is just too much talent on this team, and Jim Leyland is too good of a manager, for them to not get things turned around and have a successful season.  If you asked me before the season started, I would’ve had them marked down for 100 wins, so I think 88 is still well within their reach despite the horrendous start.

UPDATE:  Doogan went with the money and took the Tigers.  For a while, it looked like this was a lost cause, as they were wallowing around as the worst team in baseball.  But, the Tigers have gotten a lot better recently, and they are a dark horse to come all the way back and win that division.  They only project to 81 wins, and considering Doogan needs them to hit 89, it would appear pretty safe for Bry, but the talent of this team and the way they have played as of late, puts this in the too close to call category.

FINAL:  This has to be the biggest disappointment in any sport in a long time.  For all their offseason moves, for all the money they spent, and for all the expectations that were placed upon them this year, the only thing they got was a frustratingly bad 74-win season.  This is far below the 89 that Doogan needed.
BRY 9 – DOOGAN 3

BRY 13. Milwaukee Brewers – OVER 83 wins:  I must really think that the Cardinals, Astros, and Pirates are bad because of my first seven picks, this is the third NL Central team that I picked to go over their total from last year.  I just think that the Brewers have way too much talent not to win 85-90 games.  Prince Fielder is ready for another phenomenal year, and Ben Sheets is a true ace.  I worry a lot about their bullpen, but you can say that for 20-25 teams in the league.  I’ll put my faith in the Brew Crew.

UPDATE:  Bry is looking pretty good with this pick, as the Brewers (without Sabathia) project to 89 wins.  With Sabathia, it is hard to imagine that they will fall off enough to go under 83.  Bry should get this one pretty safely.

FINAL:  Bry was right on with this one, as the Brewers hit the 90-win mark, though much of it was because of a guy who did not enter the original equation–CC Sabathia.  Either way, this team is young and talented and might be around to stay.
BRY 10 – DOOGAN 3

DOOGAN 14. Philadelphia Phillies – OVER 89 wins: It’s really starting to get tough now, so I’m gonna go with a good karma pick.  I took the under on the Sixers in our NBA draft, and they proved me wrong.  I’ll put my faith in the Phils.  J-Roll is calling 100 wins, so they should be able to hit 90, right? If they get rid of Eric Bruntlett, it will be no problem.

UPDATE:  Well, they kept Eric Bruntlett and the Phillies have been up and down all season.  Doogan needs 90 wins to get this one, and, as of the All-Star break, the Phillies projected to reach 88 wins.  So, just for now, Bry will get this point–though very uncomfortably, as this one is still far from over.  If making the prediction now, I would say that Doogan will actually win this one.  I think the Phillies will win the division with 90-95 wins.  But, as the numbers go, we tenatively place this one in Bry’s category

FINAL:  Breaking news–THE PHILLIES WON THE WORLD SERIES…WOW!!!!!!!  Technically this point goes to Doogan, but don’t we all win with this one?!?
DOOGAN 4 – BRY 10

BRY 15. New York Yankees – UNDER 94 wins:  I have been wanting to take this pick for 3 or 4 rounds now, but I just couldn’t get myself to bet against the Yankees.  However, 94 wins is a lot for a team with a VERY unproven pitching staff and a ton of aging players.  Posada already went down, Jeter has missed a few, and Mariano could go any day.  They do have A-Rod, so they have a legit shot at the playoffs, but 94 wins in a much-improved division seems like a lot to me.

UPDATE:  Bry made the right move here, at least as far as the first half went.  But, does anyone remember the second half that the Yanks put together a year ago?  Right now, they project to 85 wins, but it will only take 94 to beat Bry on this one.  Yes, that is a long way off, but we are still not going to call this one over just yet.  It goes to Bry, but tenatively.

FINAL:  Another strong second half for the Bombers, but it wasn’t enough to get in the playoffs or hit that number.  In the end, it was the unproven pitching staff that did them in, just as Bry predicted–and he gets the point.
BRY 11 – DOOGAN 4

DOOGAN 16. Atlanta Braves – OVER 84 wins:  I don’t like this pick nearly as much as my last one, but I think it’s the right pick here.  It’s a team that some are picking to win the National League, so 84 wins doesn’t seem like such a tall order.  They have Teixeira for a full year and Yunel Escobar is looking good as the replacement for Renteria.  Tom Glavine has joined the rotation and the bullpen is pretty strong.

UPDATE:  Doogan went with his head, not his heart–and is paying the price.  The Braves have been a big disappoinment this year, and it only looks like it is going to get worse.  They are on pace for 77 wins, which is sort of striking distance from the 85 they need to win it for Doogan, but BSB is confident in calling this one over because the Braves are really going in the wrong direction.  Give this one safely to Bry.  Somewhere, Doogan is okay with losing this one.

FINAL:  Not only did the Phillies win the World Series, but the Atlanta Braves only won 72 games.  This looked like a great mid-round pick for Doogan when the season started because of all the expectations on the Braves, but they just never got it together.
BRY 12 – DOOGAN 4

BRY 17. Toronto Blue Jays – OVER 83 wins:  The pitching staff in Toronto is very much overlooked and under-appreciated.  Everyone knows about Roy Halladay, but do people truly realize just how good he is?  Plus, they have a presumably healthy A.J. Burnett.  And, I expect big things from both Dustin McGowan and Shaun Marcum–both of whom won 12 games last year.  They will not put up 1000 runs this year, but the offense should be solid.  If B.J. Ryan comes back healthy, this team should win 85 and might win 90.

UPDATE:  Yet another disappointing season for the Toronto Blue Jays looks like it is going to cost Bry a point here.  There is no reason that this team is under .500, but they are.  They project to 80 wins for the season, which puts them below the 84 that Bry needs for this point.  Because that is a close margin, we will label this one too close to call, but Bry cannot feel confident about recovering this one.

FINAL:  Trivia question:  Which team had more victories this year, the Toronto Blue Jays or the Los Angeles Dodgers?  Shockingly, it was the Blue Jays.  They won 86 games!  Who knew?  A great second half might be a sign of things to come next year for the Jays.  But, the big story is that red-hot team hit the OVER for Bry, and this is getting ugly.
BRY 13 – DOOGAN 4

DOOGAN 18. Florida Marlins – UNDER 71 wins:  They’re off to a good start, and 71 wins is not a lot, but this pitching staff looks downright awful.  Right now they’re working a 4-man rotation and their Opening Day starter was Mark Hendrickson.  Even with a half-decent young lineup, they should be headed for close to 100 losses.

UPDATE:  Doogan got the bad luck of being the one who sucked it up and took the Marlins.  There is no doubt that whomever decided to take Florida was going under because, well, they stink.  The only question was just how bad were they going to stink?  Well, as it turns out, they do not stink AT ALL.  They are actually a scrappy, solid, somewhat scary team (if you are the Phillies or Mets).  They project to 85 wins and will easily surpass the 70 needed for Doogan to lose this one.

FINAL:  I find it ridiculous that Fredi Gonzalez did not win the NL Manager of the Year.  This Marlins team is terrible, yet somehow that were in the race for 5 months and won 84 games.  That’s incredible!  What a job by Gonzalez.  And, it cost Doogan yet another, as Bry’s magic number is down to 2.
BRY 14 – DOOGAN 4

BRY 19. San Francisco Giants – UNDER 71 wins:  Despite the Lincecum-Lowry-Cain trio, which may be one of the best young SP trios in the game, this team is dreadful.  In fact, if I had to bet, I would bet on the Giants to have the worst record in baseball by the end of the season.  Fortunately, that is not the bet–the bet is o/u 71 wins, so I am going to go under.  Yes, as Doogan said in his last choice, 71 wins is not a lot, but this team, just like the Marlins, is most likely heading for 100 losses.

UPDATE:  It does not look like Bry will be right with his “worst team in baseball” prediction, but the Giants are pretty bad.  They project to 68 wins, which is just barely hitting the under, so this is too close to call, but Bry will get the point for now.

FINAL:  Bry was right that the Giants were bad, but he was wrong in just how bad they would be.  Thanks to a Cy Young season by Tim Lincecum and a gritty second half, they ended up covering this spread by 2 wins, picking up 72 for the season.
DOOGAN 5 – BRY 14

DOOGAN 20. Baltimore Orioles – UNDER 69 wins: Sticking with the theme of picking bad teams to get worse, I’ll go with the Orioles, even though they are also off to a good start.  Look at this roster and what is there to be optimistic about? Brian Roberts?  Daniel Cabrera?  This team stinks, and throw in 50-some games against the Red Sox, Yankees, and Blue Jays, and this is another one of the potential 100-loss teams out there.

UPDATE:  Doogan seems to be heading for a miss on a pretty good pick at the beginning of the season.  The Orioles have been a real surprise this year, and even if you live in Baltimore, it is relatively inexplicable.  Either way, the O’s are projected to reach 78 wins, and since Doogan needs 68 or less to hit this one, it seems like Bry is pretty safe on this one.

FINAL:  Doogan won the last one by two games, and he hit this one ON THE MONEY, as an absolutely atrocious second half ended the Baltimore win total at the exact number that Doogan needed for the win.  Although, they did not make up a rainout during the season and only played 161 games, so Bry is protesting this decision, saying that they could have won that game and hit the 69 that he needed.
DOOGAN 6 – BRY 14

BRY 21. Oakland Athletics – UNDER 76:  I think it says a lot about the type of organization that the A’s run that it took 20 picks before either of us picked them to lose more than 86 games.  This team, as usual, has sold their best players (or is about to, in the case of Chavez), but also as usual, this team would shock no one if they contended.  Their roster is pretty barren, though, so I am going to pick them to win less than 76 games–I would just be a lot more confident if their jerseys said anything else on them.

UPDATE:  It looks like the hesitancy to pick Oakland, despite a bad team on paper, was warranted.  This team–somehow–is actually pretty good.  They are even in the playoff hunt.  Despite trading their #1 and #3 starters, it still does not appear that they will come anywhere near the 87 losses that Bry needs to hit the under.  In fact, they project to 87 wins, so this pick should be safe for Doogan.

FINAL:  This just in from the commish’s office–Bry’s protest of the Orioles point has been denied for two reasons.  One, because it’s stupid.  And, two, because, in simply amazing irony, that rainout that the Orioles did not make up was against the Oakland A’s, and, shockingly, Bry took the A’s on the UNDER and hit that on the money, as well.  You can’t make this stuff up–unbelievable!  Bry clinches at least a tie, overall.
BRY 15 – DOOGAN 6

DOOGAN 22. Kansas City Royals – OVER 69 wins: Good points about the A’s, Bry.  I didn’t really want to pick against that organization.  As for the Royals, they’re generally very easy to pick against, but I’m not going to do it.  I’ll admit, I might not have made this pick if it wasn’t for their solid start, but as you’ve seen in my other picks, I don’t put a whole lot of stock in the first 9 games of the season.  If you look at this team though, you see some potential, and by potential, I mean potential to win 74 games this year.  They have some touted young hitters starting to come around in Alex Gordon, Billy Butler, and Mark Teahen.  On the pitching staff, they have three capable guys in the rotation, Gil Meche, Zack Greinke, and Brian Bannister, and they have an up-and-coming closer in Joakim Soria.  It looks to me like a team that can win 70.

UPDATE:  Confidence in the Kansas City Royals?  That is not something you hear very often, but Doogan has it and, so far, has been rewarded.  Doogan’s prediction of 74 wins looks somewhat prophetic, as the Royals, at the All-Star break, project to 73 for the full season.  Doogan should get this one, but it is the Royals, and they are not blowing away the number, so it is still too close to call.

FINAL:  Doogan predicts 74 wins for the Royals, enough to easily clear the OVER, and they give him 75.  Great call for Doogan, as he garners another point with a late pick.
DOOGAN 7 – BRY 15 

BRY 23. Seattle Mariners – OVER 88 wins:  You’re right, Doogan, just as I said with the A’s, I think the fact that it took so long to pick the Royals and the over speaks to where that organization has been in the recent past.  They definitely have 70+ win talent, but they are the Royals…Anyway, I am taking the Mariners with this pick because, well, they are very good and 88 wins is not all that much, considering the division in which they play.  Just as Doogan said about the Braves, there are so many people picking this team to win their division, and even the AL, that 88 wins seems very reasonable.  Plus, the A’s are down, the Angels are hurt, and the Rangers are the Rangers–someone has to win this division.  I’m just betting that that someone wins 90 games.  With King Felix ready to be a star and the truly underrated Erik Bedard as a #2, they should pitch their way to the mark.  And, with their offense, they may have to.

UPDATE:  Talk about an awful pick!  One of the two worst teams in baseball is the Seattle Mariners and Bry had them pegged for over 88 wins.  There is solace, however, in the fact that just about everyone got this one wrong.  The Mariners were the sheik preseason pick for the AL Pennant.  But, that does not change the fact that Doogan will clearly win this one.

FINAL:  Easily the worst pick in the whole competition, as not only did Bry miss this pick, but he missed it by TWENTY-EIGHT GAMES!  Yes, the Mariners lost 101, when Bry probably had them down for 101 wins.  Doogan, again, stays alive.
DOOGAN 8 – BRY 15

DOOGAN 24. Houston Astros – OVER 73 wins:  Believe me, I’m not a big fan of picking Ed Wade to come in and make a team better, but he has made an effort to improve this team, even if he maybe should have been in rebuilding mode.  Houston has quickly gone from a team with good pitching and little hitting, to the complete opposite.  With Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee, Miguel Tejada, and Hunter Pence in the lineup, they should score some runs.  The big problem is the rotation behind Roy Oswalt.  I think Shawn Chacon could give them a decent season and Jose Valverde has been a solid closer over the last couple years. Also, I don’t put as much faith in teams like the Cubs and Brewers as Bry does.

UPDATE:  This one should go down to the wire.  The Astros have been up and down all year, and they project to 75 wins.  Doogan needs 74 or better to win this one, so he will tenatively get the point for this one–very tenatively.

FINAL:  A pick that looked really bad for a while actually turned into a comfortable win for Doogan, only needing 74 wins and getting 86.  What a second half for the ‘Stros, and Doogan, again, stays alive with some really good late-round picks.
DOOGAN 9 – BRY 15

BRY 25. Washington Nationals – UNDER 73 wins:  The pick’ins are getting slim here with six teams left, so I am going to go against a team that many people think is going to improve.  Don’t get me wrong, I like the direction of the Nats, and I am excited to make the short trip down south to that beautiful new ballpark of theirs.  I also really like Manny Acta and his solid cast of young players.  I just think that they might be a season away from threatening for a .500 season.  The division is a lot better, and they are still building.  I hesitantly take the Nationals and the under on 73.

UPDATE:  This team is so bad that their new stadium is not even drawing fans (not that Washington was all that great of a baseball town, to begin with).  The ‘Nals are on pace for a mere 61 wins, which is an easy win for Bry with this pick.

FINAL:  If you go back and read Bry’s assessment of why he picked the ‘Nats in the beginning of the year, you’ll see that he pretty much got everything wrong:  The direction of the ‘Nats is not good, their stadium is not beautiful, Manny Acta does not a solid group of young players, and they are not about to threaten for a .500 season.  But, the one thing he got right was the only thing that matters–the pick.  Bry took the UNDER and the ‘Nals smashed it, winning a major league-worst 59 games.  Game, set, match, as Bry clinches BSB’s 2008 MLB Competition.
BRY 16 – DOOGAN 9

DOOGAN 26. Texas Rangers- OVER 75 wins:  Yeah, I’m not sure about this, but they still have a pretty strong offense.  Milton Bradley and Josh Hamilton have come in to offset the loss of Teixeira.  Obviously, the pitching is not good, but maybe they can hit their way to 78 or so wins.

UPDATE:  A pretty gutsy pick by Doogan, and he looks great in doing it.  He was right on, and even understated, in the prediction that Milton Bradley and Josh Hamilton would offset the loss of Teixeira.  Throw in Ian Kinsler (the best player in baseball that nobody’s ever heard of) and this team has a potent offense.  Despite the fact that their bold-faced refusal to admit that pitching is an important factor in winning baseball games is keeping them from contending, they are still on their way to a solid season.  They project to be an 84-win team, which is easily over the number Doogan needs, and with Hamilton, Bradley and Kinsler in a struggling division, this is a clear win for Doogan.

FINAL:  Another great late-round pick by Doogan is too little, too late.  The Rangers had a pretty solid year, winning 79 games, and giving Doogan a late point.
DOOGAN 10 – BRY 16

BRY 27. New York Mets – UNDER 88 wins:  Okay, here is the pick where I lose all objective credibility.  I think that the Mets are going to have a disappointing season.  After Santana (granted, the best pitcher in baseball), there are question marks in the rotation.  I actually do like John Maine, but is he a #2?  I also like Oliver Perez, but is he a #3?  They really need a healthy Pedro–which probably isn’t going to happen.  Plus, you can’t count on Moises Alou, El Duque, or Luis Castillo at all, at this point.  And, maybe I’m the only one, but I have serious reservations about calling Jose Reyes a superstar just yet.  People just see the speed and the flashy glove and the hype and think superstar.  What they do not realize is that this leadoff hitter has a career on-base percentage of .329 and has never been higher than .354.  Yes, he’s only 24 and has tremendous upside, but he really hasn’t done all that much yet.  If he played in Pittsburgh or Kansas City or Seattle, he’d be another “rising star.”  He is clearly the third best shortstop in the division, and I think the Mets are the third best team in the division.  80-85 wins for this team this year, and about 80-85 million suicidal fans.

UPDATE:  Yes, Bry risk all of his objective credibility, but he may hit on this just yet.  Though the post All-Star break has been good to the Mets, as of the All-Star break (even with the 9-game winning streak), they were on pace for 87 wins–the EXACT number that Bry needs to win this one.  Obviously, this is too close to call, and Doogan is probably in a better position because of the way they are playing, but we have to give the tenative point to Bry for now.

FINAL:  In the exact opposite scenario as what happened with Bry’s pick of Washington, everything that was said in the pick’s justification was actually right this time.  The Mets did have a disappointing season; Santana was phenomenal, John Maine was an okay #2, and there wasn’t really anything else; they clearly could not count on Pedro, Moises, Luis Castillo, or El Duquel and, Jose Reyes is NOT a superstar.  However, just as Bry got everything wrong except the pick for Washington, he got everything right, except the pick for the Mets, as, despite all of this, they still managed 89 wins and a point for Doogan.  Oh, but they did not win the division, the NL pennant, or the World Series…some other team did.
DOOGAN 11 – BRY 16

DOOGAN 28. Boston Red Sox – UNDER 96 wins:  96 sounds about right for the Sox this year, but I’m going to say under just because they have a lot of key players that appear to be starting to age.  I know they have tons of young talent but the 3-4-5 hitters, Ortiz, Manny, and Mike Lowell, aren’t getting any younger.  Lost amid the World Series triumph last year was that Manny had probably the worst season of his career, and Big Papi’s knees have about had it.  Jason Varitek is also getting up there in age and who knows what they’ll get out of Curt Schilling.

UPDATE:  “96 [wins] sounds about right for the Sox this year, but I’m going to say under…”  Well, if the projections hold up, Doogan should get several points for this one.  As of the break, the Sox were on pace for 95 wins.  Like Bry’s Mets pick, we have to put this win in Doogan’s column for now, but it is way too close to call–obviously.  Though, I would be more confident with the Red Sox staying under than the Mets.

FINAL:  If Doogan could have just gotten some points with the “easier” rounds, this whole thing would be a different story because he is nailing these late-round picks.  He said, “96 sounds about right for the Sox this year, but I’m going to say under just because they have a lot of core players that appear to be starting to age.”  Well, 96 was about right, but just UNDER was even righter.
DOOGAN 12 – BRY 16

BRY 29. Pittsburgh Pirates – UNDER 68 wins:  Honestly, I really did not want to pick the Indians (the only other team left) because that is a tough line.  I am going with a really, really bad Pirates team to be even worse than the really, really bad Pirates team that only won 68 last year.

UPDATE:  67 wins is not very many, and the Pirates are on pace to beat that.  They are projected to reach 75 wins this year, so Bry will probably lose this one.  Though a trade of either Jason Bay or Xavier Nady might help the under.  And, they are the Pirates.  For those reasons, we will place this in the too-close-to-call category, but it does look pretty good for Doogan.

FINAL:  A really bad second half by a really bad team finished with 67 wins, giving Bry another pick right on the money (for the record, that is four teams that had exactly one fewer win than they had last year–and on all 4 of them one of the two of us chose UNDER).
BRY 17 – DOOGAN 12

DOOGAN 30. Cleveland Indians – UNDER 96 wins:  This is basically a coin flip.  Victor Martinez is hurt and maybe Fausto Carmona will have a sophomore slump?

UPDATE:  The very last pick; called “basically a coin flip;” the highest line in baseball; and, this one turns out to be a walk in the park.  It appears that Doogan picked the right side of that coin, as the Indians are dreadful this year.  They project to a mere 71 wins, which gives Doogan a TWENTY-FOUR game cushion to win this one.  Write this one in for Doogan.

FINAL:  The Indians did start to play well again in the second half, but there was no chance for them to catch the 96 that Bry needed to catch this point.  The Indians did finish at .500, but 15 games worse than they were last year.  Great last pick by Doogan (or the coin he flipped).
DOOGAN 13 – BRY 17

OVERALL UPDATE:  According to the BSB projections, as of the All-Star break, Bry was out to a huge lead, and projects to hold on–but not by that much.  He has an overall 17-13 lead, but 7 of his picks are “too close to call.”  16 wins wins it, so he needs to either hold 6 of his close ones or steal however many he loses from Doogan’s 6 close ones.  Bry has the advantage (with a 10-7 lead on “locks”), but it should be interesting down the stretch.

FINAL:  Bry holds on for a 17-13 win that looked like it was going to be a lot worse than that.  Doogan’s great late-round picks made this one a lot closer than it looked like it was going to be.  Overall, the worst pick was Bry’s pick of OVER 88 for the Mariners–they won 61.  The easiest picks were Bry’s first pick of Tampa Bay and the OVER (31 games better), Doogan’s first pick of the Rockies and the UNDER (16 games worse), and Doogan’s last pick of the Indians and the UNDER (15 games worse).

Until next time…