CTC: Day Three

LAST UPDATE:  12:02 am

The clouds are circling and the winds are starting to pick up slightly.  The sky is a little darker, and it is starting to “smell like rain.”  Yes, my friends, a storm is a-brewin’.  After 8 games Tuesday and 8 more last night, we have ourselves 13 today, including our first round of semifinals.  5 conferences are in action today – 3 of which are brand-new to the docket.  And, this is only the beginning as we can now start counting down the hours until the black clouds and heavy rains are upon us (I swear I had no idea that the storm cliche was getting stale…).

BIG SOUTH SEMIFINALS (8 points each)
The 2011 CTC kicked off, as usual, in the Big South conference with their four quarterfinals.  We got one crazy upset and a couple other near-misses.  The Big South is now the first conference to enter the semifinal round.  The players know that they are playing for 8 CTC points each game (plus upset points), so you will see the intensity rise a bit on the court.  The winners tonight will earn a date with the ESPN family of networks for the title game on Saturday.  As for the CTC race, Bry, J, and Doogan have large leads here (at least 10 points on anyone else), so it may already be a three-horse race for the 2011 Big South crown.

#3 UNC-Asheville vs. #7 High Point
We will see how High Point responds coming off the biggest upset of the conference tournament season so far.  High Point knocked off #2 Liberty on Tuesday night, while Asheville looked impressive in a 12-point win over Charleston-Southern.  No one in the CTC has High Point winning this game, but plenty of people have UNC-Asheville going to the finals – Bry, J, Doogan, Stri, Alexi, Waters, Lynch, Lohse, Lil Lohse, Scoot, Primm, and Gross.  Primm, Waters, Alexi, and Doogan actually have them winning it all.

UPDATE:  UNC-Asheville 62 – High Point 45
A close game for about 25 minutes until some guy named Primm started to score at will, enabling some other guy named Primm to grab 8 CTC points.  High Point actually had a lead in the second half, but Asheville caught fire and ended up winning pretty handily to get themselves to the Big South title game on Saturday.  Doogan, Alexi, Waters, and some guy named Primm (hmm…) keep alive their champion here.

#1 Coastal Carolina vs. #4 VMI
Both of these teams are coming off difficult home wins on Tuesday night.  Coastal’s was not supposed to be tough against Gardner-Webb, but it was.  VMI was expecting a barnburner against Winthrop, and they got it – pulling it out 78-73.  Now, we will see if the Keydets can knock off the undermanned Chanticleers and go to the finals.  Doogan, Teddy, and Cheryl are all hoping so, as they have them winning this game.  Cheryl and Teddy actually have them winning it all.

UPDATE:  Coastal Carolina 89 – VMI 81
VMI had almost as many missed three-pointers (21) than total rebounds (24).  Now, I am no basketball coach, but I would not exactly draw up a gameplan like that.  No to mention allowing an undermanned opponent to shoot almost 57% from the field.  I don’t want the secret to get out that this is bad basketball strategy because it’s so damn interesting and exciting, but, honestly, it is not the way to win games.  Coastal now takes their controversy-riddled team to the Big South championship against UNC-Asheville on Saturday.  Most CTC’ers kept their Big South champion here.  Cheryl and Teddy actually lost theirs.

MISSOURI VALLEY OPENING ROUND (6 points each)
Obviously, as a die-hard Temple fan, the A-10 tournament provides the most intrigue from a personal fan level for me.  And, as much as I rip the “major” (i.e. rich) conferences, it is pretty great to see the best teams in the country play in a conference tournament as a warm-up for the Dance.  But, of the 32 conference tournaments, there are two that always stand out above the rest for me because of their combining of quality basketball, hard-core STUDENT fans, and the intensity of teams playing for the auto-bid because at-large bids are never guaranteed.  One of those two conferences starts today with its “Arch Madness” in St. Louis – and that is the Missouri Valley.  A bit of a down year for The Valley, as a whole, but there is still a ton of intrigue heading into Arch Madness 2011.  As the CTC stands, no one has any of these four teams winning today and tomorrow, but both games are about as hotly contested as games can be, as far as split down the middle with the picks.

#8 S. Illinois vs. #9 Illinois State
An argument can be made that the Salukis of S. Illinois made The Valley what it is today with their consistent run of success in the regular season and the postseason.  They were even given a 4-seed in 2007 (and rewarded the Committee’s confidence by knocking off 5th-seeded Tennessee to reach the Sweet 16.  Granted The Valley was always a decent mid-major conference (4 separate programs in the Sweet 16 in the past 5 years), but a 4-seed?  That means the conference had arrived.  However, the downside of raising the level of your entire conference is that, well, you just raised the level of your entire conference – the very teams you have to play twice every year.  So, the Salukis have fallen back as a program, falling into the opening round of the MVC tournament this year, where they will play Illinois State.  The Redbirds lost a ton to graduation and never really got going with a young team this year.  And, now they have a tough road to walk here, with SIU and then #1 Missouri State just to reach the semis.  While no one has Missouri State losing to either of these teams in the quarters, the CTC was rather split on the outcome of this game.  9 of the 20 entries have Illinois State in the minor upset (Waters, Lynch, Lohse, Lil Lohse, KA, Teddy, Dave, Primm, and Mac).

UPDATE:  S. Illinois 57 – Illinois State 54
After a close game for the entire first half, the Salukis built a 10-point lead around the midway point of the second half, only to see it completely evaporate in less than 4 minutes.  But, a Justin Bocot three-pointer finally put them ahead to stay, as SIU earns – get this – their first MVC tournament win since 2007.  That’s a stunner.  It will probably be their last until at least 2012, though, as they are lined up to face #1 Missouri State in the quarters tomorrow.  The 11 entries who took the favorite here are 6 points richer in CTC wealth.

#7 Drake vs. #10 Bradley
Drake had that magical regular season in 2008, earning themselves a 5-seed (and a chance to have their hearts ripped out by a miracle W. Kentucky buzzer-beater to end their season), but are still trying to get back to that level.  Bradley actually had pretty lofty expectations this season and were an absolute disaster.  They actually lost their first 11 conference games, before recovering at the end and playing a little better.  But, it was a totally lost season for the Braves…barring a miracle run here in St. Louis.  Just like the first opening round matchup, no one has either of these teams advancing into the semifinals (the winner gets #2 Wichita State in the quarters), but the 20 CTC’ers are split exactly down the middle on this game – 10 with Drake and 10 with Bradley.  For the sake of documentation, Bry, Doogan, Alexi, Lynch, Lohse, Lil Lohse, KA, Teddy, Gersh, and Gross have the underdog, Bradley, here.  Everyone whose name was not listed there went with the favorite, Drake.

UPDATE:  Bradley 63 – Drake 48
26 of Bradley’s 63 points came from Dyricus Simms-Edwards (a career high to go along with a career-high 9 rebounds), as the Braves win relatively easily in the MVC opening round.  Bradley, winners of 6 of their last 9 after a terrible first three-quarters of the season, will take their momentum up against #2 Wichita State tomorrow night in the quarters.  Bry, Doogan, Alexi, Lynch, Lohse, Lil Lohse, KA, Teddy, Gersh, and Gross all hit this upset pick.

NEC QUARTERFINALS (4 points each)
12 teams playing almost a true round-robin with 6 conference games every Thursday and 6 more every Saturday from the end of December to the end of February makes the NEC a fun conference to follow.  The level of basketball is a little lacking, but there is still a lot intrigue throughout the year.  This conference splits up their rounds, with the quarters tonight, the semis on Sunday, and then the championship on Wednesday, so we’ll get a taste today and then pick it back up over the weekend.

#1 Long Island vs. #8 St. Francis (PA)
The Blackbirds were very impressive all year, and they are rewarded with the #1 seed and homecourt advantage throughout the NEC tournament.  St. Francis (PA) snuck into the tournament (4 of the 12 teams are left out of the tourney), so they are playing with house money.  Waters and Teddy both went for huge upset pick here with St. Francis (PA).  Waters even has the Red Flash making the finals.  LIU is the NEC champion pick for the majority of the CTC field.

UPDATE:  Long Island 90 – St. Francis (PA) 75
One of the highest scoring teams in the country – averaging just shy of 83 points per game – the LIU Blackbirds flexed their offensive muscles in their first tournament game, hammering St. Francis (PA) in a game that was over almost as soon as it started.  A very impressive start to the postseason for the NEC’s top team.  Waters and Teddy missed out on what would have been a fantastic upset pick here.  Waters actually even lost a finalist in this game.

#2 Quinnipiac vs. #7 Mount St. Mary’s
Quinnipiac, the preseason pick to win the NEC, struggled in the middle of the season and lost by in their only meeting with LIU (on the island).  But, the Bobcats were good enough to earn the #2 seed in the tournament.  Mount St. Mary’s recovered from a terrible start to win 9 conference games and enter the NEC tournament rather safely as the 7-seed.  The Mountaineers did beat QU the only time these two played in the regular season, though.  Alexi, Waters, KA, Teddy, Dave, and Gross all went with MSM in a pretty big upset here, though none of them have them going any further.  Lynch, Gersh, and Mac all have the most at stake here with QU, as they have them winning this tournament.

UPDATE:  Quinnipiac 78 – Mount St. Mary’s 59
The final score doesn’t really tell the tale of this game, as it was a good bit closer than the 19-point win might indicate.  MSM actually led for the majority of the first half, until QU went on a 14-1 run to grab the lead at the break.  Alexi, Waters, KA, Teddy, Dave, and Gross all missed out on this upset pick.  Lynch, Gersh, and Mac are relieved to have their NEC champion pick still alive.

#3 Robert Morris vs. #6 Wagner
Another team that got up off the proverbial mat after a slow start this year is Robert Morris.  Maybe the hottest team entering the tournament, Robert Morris has won 6 in a row (granted, all six wins were against teams in the bottom 5 of the NEC standings) and certainly knows what it takes to take down this title.  Wagner has pretty much the opposite story.  Not picked to do much at all in the preseason, they started conference play with a blitz of victories that catapulted them to the top of the NEC in the early going.  But, they hit a couple snags down the stretch and are limping into the tournament as losers of their last 4 and 5 of their last 6.  J, KA, Dave, and Gersh all like Wagner here in a nice upset pick.  Gersh and KA both have the Seahawks making the finals, and KA actually has them cutting down the nets and going Dancing.  Waters, Lohse, Teddy, Primm, and Gross all went with Robert Morris to win this whole tournament – the second most popular pick behind #1-seed LIU.

UPDATE:  Robert Morris 78 – Wagner 74
Leading the whole way, Robert Morris looked like they had this game well in hand when they took a 69-57 lead into the under-4-minute time out.  But, out of that timeout, the Seahawks, fighting for the season, went on a 13-3 run to cut the lead to 2 with :25 seconds left.  But, the Colonials (like good teams do) cooly sunk their final 6 free throws to ice the game and live to fight another day.  RMC moves on to the semis, where they will take on Quinnipiac.  Waters, Lohse, Teddy, Primm, and Gross keep their NEC title team alive.  Waters, Lohse, Teddy, Primm, and Gross all miss on an upset pick.  KA lost her champion with this one.

#4 C. Connecticut State vs. #5 St. Francis (NY)
CCSU is one of the perenial power of the NEC and were picked to contend again this year.  They started slow, but have started to hit their stride as of late and inched their way into the top four, which means they get to host this first-round game.  St. Francis (NY), who won 10 conference games for the first time in a long time may not just be happy to be here.  Though CCSU is the higher seed here, the majority of the CTC went with the upset pick here.  Only Bry, Doogan, J, Stri, Alexi, Lynch, Scoot, and Dave took the Blue Devils.  Lynch and Dave have CCSU in the finals; Dave has them winning it.  On the other side, Lohse, KA, and Teddy all have St. Francis (NY) in the finals, though none have them winning.

UPDATE:  C. Connecticut State 64 – St. Francis (NY) 62
A pretty great game between the 4- and 5-seeds in the NEC ends up with CCSU prevailing and advancing to the semis, where they will take on top-seeded LIU.  There was a bit of madness in this one, as St. Francis drew within a single point, 63-62, with :29 seconds to play and then got the ball back, down 2.  But Ricky Cadell, their leading scorer, missed a shot at the buzzer that would have forced OT.  By the skin of his teeth, Dave keeps his title team alive.  Lohse, KA, and Teddy all lose a finalist in this one.  The majority of the field went with the upset, so there was a lot at stake here.

ATLANTIC SUN QUARTERFINALS (4 points each)
The first two quarterfinals took place in Macon, GA, last night, and the remaining two games will be played today to see who joins the top two seeds – Belmont and ETSU (who narrowly avoided a big upset) – in the semis tomorrow.

#3 Jacksonville vs. #6 N. Florida
I am going to be honest, I have no idea if these two teams are major rivals, but we can assume there is some sort of rivalry, right?  They are in the same conference and the same city, so let’s just call this a “heated” rivalry.  The winner of this game will play E. Tennessee State tomorrow night for a berth in the A-Sun finals on Saturday.  Though they are a lowly 6-seed, the 18-loss Ospreys of N. Florida got a TON of love in this year’s CTC.  12 people had them upsetting Jacksonville here in the quarters (only Alexi, Scoot, Cheryl, Rikey, Gersh, Primm, and Mac had the favorites).  And, 4 more had them winning again in the semis to reach the finals (J, Waters, Dan, and Dave).  No one went all the way to have them win the tournament.  And, on the flip side, not much love for the Jacksonville Dolphins, as only Alexi, Scoot, and Primm even have them reaching the finals (not a big stretch for a 3-seed) and only Scoot has them winning it.

UPDATE:  N. Florida 68 – Jacksonville 64
For most of the game, it looked like Jacksonville would cruise to a semifinal meeting with ETSU, but then, as often does in this crazy month we call March, it all went awry for the Dolphins.  Down by 6 at the half and double-digits through most of the first 10 minutes of the second half, UNF, led by some guy named Jerron Granberry, who went 7-8 from the floor and 8-9 from the line, came all the way back to upset #3 Jacksonville.  The 12 people who had UNF in this upset are pretty happy about the result, while no one is more unnerved than Scoot, who lost his A-Sun champion in the process.  Alexi and Primm also lost finalists here.

#4 Lipscomb vs. #5 Mercer
While we don’t know about the Jacksonville – N. Florida rivalry, the one rivalry that we do know that is probably the greatest rivalry you’ve never heard of is that of Nashville neighbors Lipscomb and Belmont.  Well, we are one Lipscomb victory away from getting that matchup with the bright lights of the A-Sun semis upon it.  But, that is a long 40 minutes away.  The Mercer Bears have been playing the best basketball as of late, and they get to play the A-Sun tournament on their home floor.  Lipscomb had a decent year and has an excellent team, but this should be a really good game.  Bry, Doogan, Waters, Scoot, and Gersh were all tempted by the single upset point here and took the underdog Mercer team.  Waters went all-in with the Bears and has this 5-seed winning the whole thing.  KA has the most at stake with Lipscomb, as she has them winning this tournament.  No one else even has them in the finals.

UPDATE:  Mercer 73 – Lipscomb 63
Brian Mills had 27 for Mercer in a game that wasn’t really all that close after the first 7 or 8 minutes.  Adnan Hodzic, one of the best players to don a Lipscomb uniform, came up real small (just 9 points) in his what probably will turn out to be his final collegiate game.  Mercer moves on to the semis where they will get a shot at top-seeded Belmont.  Bry, Doogan, Scoot, and Gersh are all happy with the upset pick here, but Waters is ecstatic, as he has Mercer winning this whole tournament.

OHIO VALLEY QUARTERFINALS (4 points each)
After Upset Night in the OVC last night, the dust has settled and we have two new teams entering the fray, hoping not to be the latest victims.  The top two seeds in this tournament get another night off before they join the party tomorrow for the semis.  With Gersh being the only one to hit both first-round games, he is the only one left with aspirations for a perfect OVC in 2011.  To continue his dream, he will need both favorites here tonight.

#4 Tennessee Tech vs. #8 UT-Martin
UT-Martin had a big come-from-behind win last night, eliminating Tennessee State, and bring their momentum back tonight to try and knock off Tennessee Tech.  If they win this, they move on face the Tennessee Volunteers and then the Tennessee Titans.  Well, that or Murray State, whichever sounds more reasonable.  The Golden Eagles of Tennessee Tech had a really good year, winning 12 conference games and even leading the conference for a short period of time in late January.  They earned the night off last night and now get rewarded with the 8th-seed in a game to see who takes on #1 Murray State.  No one has UT-Martin winning this game, but Doogan, Alexi, Lohse, Scoot, Cheryl, and Gross are all rooting for them because they have already lost the game (picking Tennessee State) and everyone else has Tech.  J has Tennessee Tech winning tonight and tomorrow; Alexi has the Golden Eagles winning this whole tournament.

UPDATE:  Tennessee Tech 83 – UT-Martin 59
After an exciting night of upsets last night, it looked like the trend might continue in the OVC, as UT-Martin dominated the first 6 or 7 minutes of this game, opening up as much as an 8-point lead.  But, Tech finished the half on a 26-6 run and never looked back, cruising to an easy quarterfinal win and setting up a semifinal date with #1 Murray State tomorrow night.  Alexi is happy to see this easy win, as he has Tech winning it all.

#3 Austin Peay vs. #7 SE Missouri State
Austin Peay is one of the staples of the OVC.  They have a rich basketball tradition so rich that in his spare time, their head coach, Dave Loos, is the school’s athletic director for all the “other” sports.  The Governors have had a resurgence this year, leading this pretty solid league, for the majority of the season, until finishing in a tie for second place – one game behind regular season champion, Murray State.  They lost the tiebreaker to Morehead State for the 2-seed and are relegated to this extra round of play.  Fortunately, for them, they get to face 6-12 SEMS instead of 9-9 E. Kentucky because of the upset last night.  Not surprisingly (because they’re very good), Austin Peay got a decent amount of love in the CTC picks.  Stri, Scoot, Gersh, Gross, and Mac all have them winning this tournament.  Lynch, Lil Lohse, Cheryl, and Primm have them reaching the finals.  Everyone in the CTC has them winning this game.

UPDATE:  Austin Peay 76 – SE Missouri State 60
And, the nightcap was not all that competitive, either.  Senior star Caleb Brown had 28, while St. John’s transfer Ty’Shawn Edmondson chipped in with 13 as the Governors cruise past SEMS in their 2011 postseason debut.  Everyone got this pick right.  Stri, Scoot, Gersh, Gross, and Mac all keep their champion alive.

AMERICA EAST OPENING ROUND (2 points)
The great America East starts today with its ‘pigtail’ game between the league’s bottom two teams.  After undergrad life at a small D-III school, I only got even a glimpse of D-I college sports in my final year of grad school when UMBC won the America East title in 2008.  I’m not gonna lie, as great as undergrad was, the one thing that was missing was big-time college sports…even if my only knowledge of it is a combination of Temple games with my dad growing up and one year of America East basketball as a 28-year old in grad school.

#8 UMBC vs. #9 Binghamton
Since that great 2008 season, it has been a freefall for the UMBC program.  This year looked like it might hit rock bottom when they lost their first 12 en route to an abysmal 1-16 start to the season.  But, then they, somehow, beat a good BU team at home and then won at Hartford.  Later in the season they actually went to Orono and knocked off a solid Maine team.  They still finished in 8th place in the league, but managed 4 conference wins.  Binghamton was almost as bad, but it was worse because there were more expectations of this team.  The Bearcats only had 2 non-conference wins and both were against bad teams (Manhattan and Cornell) and both by a single point.  But, they started conference play with three straight wins, and it looked like they were going to turn it around.  Then they lost 12 of their last 13 and finished in last place.  While, no one has either of these teams beating Vermont in the quarters, Bry, Doogan, J, Lil Lohse, Teddy, Cheryl, Dan, and Primm all went for the underdog Bearcats of Binghamton.

UPDATE:  Binghamton 91 – UMBC 65
In maybe the least competitive game we have seen thus far, UMBC just doesn’t show up.  The Retrievers were down by as many as 35 in this one and end up ending an abysmal season with a 26-point loss to the last-place team in the America East.  Binghamton will move on to the quarters tomorrow to face top-seeded Vermont.  Bry, Doogan, J, Lil Lohse, Teddy, Cheryl, Dan, and Primm all hit this minor upset.

CTC SNAPSHOT – MISSOURI VALLEY

Championship Picks:

• #1 Missouri State (5) – Waters, Lil Lohse, Scoot, Cheryl, Dan
• #2 Wichita State (13) – everyone else
• #3 Indiana State (2) – Alexi, Primm

Lowest Seed Picked to Win in Earlier Rounds:

• OR – #10 Bradley – Bry, Doogan, Alexi, Lynch, Lohse, Lil Lohse, KA, Teddy, Gersh, Gross
• QF – #6 Evansville – Bry, J, Doogan, Stri, Waters, Lynch, Lohse, Lil Lohse, KA, Teddy, Scoot, Cheryl, Dave, Gersh, Gross
• SF – #6 Evansville – Scoot, Cheryl

Previous CTC Winners:

• ’08 – Ina
• ’09 – Stri
• ’10 – Stri

CTC SNAPSHOT – NEC

Championship Picks:

• #1 Long Island (9) – everyone else
• #2 Quinnipiac (3) – Lynch, Gersh, Mac
• #3 Robert Morris (5) – Waters, Lohse, Teddy, Primm, Gross
• #4 C. Connecticut State (1) – Dave
• #5 St. Francis NY (0)
• #6 Wagner (1) – KA

Lowest Seed Picked to Win in Earlier Rounds:

• QF – #8 St. Francis PA – Waters, Teddy
• SF – #8 St. Francis PA – Waters

Previous CTC Winners:

• ’08 – Stri
• ’09 – Bry/Stri (perfect)
• ’10 – Lil Lohse

CTC SNAPSHOT – AMERICA EAST

Championship Picks:

• #1 Vermont (12) – everyone else
• #2 Boston U (7) – Doogan, J, Waters, Lohse, Lil Lohse, KA, Dave
• #3 Maine (1) – Gersh

Lowest Seed Picked to Win in Earlier Rounds:

• QF – #7 New Hampshire – Gross
• SF – # 6 Hartford – Lynch, Gross

Previous CTC Winners:

• ’08 – Alexi
• ’09 – Bry
• ’10 – Stri/Lynch