Next Year’s Top 20 in College Basketball

Time for my annual prediction of the top college basketball teams for NEXT year.  All the talk this season was that there was no great teams, and that claim was pretty much verified with the wild tournament that saw no #1 or #2 seeds in the Final Four.  Well, get ready to hear a similar refrain next year.  As usual, I’ll do my best to project who will leave early for the draft, but I’m always wrong on a good number of them.

2012's Player of the Year favorite

#1 Ohio State:  They were the top overall seed in the tournament this year and fell short, but Thad Matta’s squad should have another shot at a title in 2012.  I believe Jared Sullinger when he says he’ll return, and that gives the Buckeyes the early front-runner for National Player of the Year.  They also have an excellent wing player in William Buford and a rock solid point guard, Aaron Craft.  DeShaun Thomas should be ready to step into the starting line-up and make an impact at small forward.  Matta favors a small rotation, and he has a couple talented returnees (Jordan Sibert, Lenzelle Smith) that didn’t play this year and two McDonald’s All-Americans (Amir Williams, Shannon Scott) coming in to compete for playing time.

#2 Kentucky:  It’s the same old story for Calipari, with Brandon Knight and Terence Jones likely to be one-and-dones but a boatload of talent coming in to replace them.  It’s a combination of the lack of great teams next year and the level of this particular class that puts the Wildcats this high in the rankings.  First though, returnees Doron Lamb, Darius Miller, and Deandre Liggins have proven themselves to be very useful players that will head into next season with Final Four experience.  Then there are the recruits.  SF Michael Gilchrist is a freakish athlete who had 16 points/12 boards in the McDonald’s All-American game.  PF Anthony Davis grew 7 inches over the last year and a half, to go from a 6-2 PG to arguably the best pro prospect in the entire 2011 class.  Marquis Teague gives Calipari the top PG in the class for what seems like the 8th straight year.  Kyle Wiltjer shares more than a first name and home state with Kyle Singler.  He’s also 6-9 with plenty of skill.  Those 4 recruits with the 3 key returnees could give Kentucky a pretty devastating top seven of the rotation.  If Knight decides to stick around for another year, they might be the team to beat.

#3  North Carolina:  Still hard to call the early entries here, but for now I’ll guess that Barnes and Henson leave, but Zeller returns for his senior year.  The backcourt is pretty well set-up with Kendall Marshall, Dexter Strickland, Leslie McDonald and Reggie Bullock, who missed the last few weeks with an injury.  Two blue-chip recruits will step in to replace Barnes and Henson.  Swingman P.J. Hairston is a lights-out shooter, as he showed in the All-American game, and PF James McAdoo was co-MVP of that game.  Like Kentucky with Knight, if Barnes comes back he could make his team the title favorite.

#4 Pittsburgh:  I’m putting this team so high partly out of respect for the program and for Jamie Dixon.  They probably don’t have as much talent as some of the teams listed below, but they have a very good chance to win the Big East regular season again.  Can they do anything in the tournament?  Who knows.  They’ll have a hard time replacing all the things Brad Wanamker did for them, but Ashton Gibbs will be a pre-season All-American.  Travon Woodall should have a breakout season at the point and Nasir Robinson could do the same at PF.  They always have unknowns ready to step up  and become key contributors (Dante Taylor and Talib Zanna are prime candidates), and they’re also bringing in a rare All-American recruit: center Khem Birch, who could replace Gary McGhee right away.

Robinson could be an All-American

#5 Kansas:  I’m assuming the Morris twins both head off to the League.  This team could move up or down depending on a couple things.  One, will they sign either of the two excellent recruits they’re currently fight for?  Two, will Josh Selby come close to living up to the hype he had coming in to the season?  Barring surprise NBA entries, Thomas Robinson and Tyshawn Taylor will be a great inside-outside combo.  In fact, I’d probably peg Robinson as my pick for conference player of the year.  Elijah Johnson and Jeff Withey are returnees that could be put on the path to stardom at Allen Fieldhouse.

#6 Duke:  Assuming Kyrie Irving leaves, Duke will be another team that’s hard to predict.  The high school player of the year, Austin Rivers, will undoubtedly take a starting spot on the wing, which will be the team’s strength again with Andre Dawkins and Seth Curry also back.  Point guard is a possible concern, but they could be strong there with sophomore Tyler Thornton and All-American recruit Quinn Cook competing for the spot.  They’ll probably have three Plumlees (unless Mason makes an ill-advised early jump), but it remains to be seen how much of an asset that is.  Ryan Kelly is another useful post player.

#7 Syracuse:  They’ll be deep and talented, but there are still questions about the backcourt of Scoop Jardine and Brandon Triche.  How good are they, and is having them both back really that much of a positive?  Either way, they’re at least experienced and capable, and leading scorer Kris Joseph is also back.  This year’s freshmen Dion Waiters and C.J. Fair showed a lot, but how good will Fab Melo be?  Joining all those guys are two top recruits: G Michael Carter-Williams and C Rakeem Christmas, who is yet another Philly kid heading to upstate New York.

#8 Connecticut:  On the one hand, this is a national champion team that’s only losing one player, so you might think they’d be higher.  On the other hand, that one player is Kemba Walker, and let’s not forget that this team went .500 in the Big East this year.  Still, Jeremy Lamb looks ready to be a star, Shabazz Napier should be a solid PG, and Alex Oriakhi still has the potential to be a high-level post player.  Role players like Roscoe Smith, Jamal Coombs-McDaniel, and Tyler Olander will also help.

Kabongo is the latest Canadian star in Austin

#9 Texas:  Assuming here that Jordan Hamilton departs, but they would be in my Top 5 if he returns.  Rick Barnes isn’t generally a 3-guard type coach, but he’ll have to consider it next year with Corey Joseph and J’Covan Brown returning, along with top recruit Myck Kabongo.  With Tristan Thompson anchoring the post, that could be a great base for a team.  Kabongo, another Canadian like Joseph and Thompson, is 6-2, really quick, and has some flash to his game.

#10 Louisville:  They have to replace Preston Knowles, but the nucleus of Kyle Kuric, Peyton Siva, Terrence Jennings, and Rakeem Buckles will be joined by a pair of blue-chip recruits, PF Chane Behanan and G Wayne Blackshear.

#11 Florida:  Their whole starting frontcourt is gone, but their two leading scorers, Erving Walker and Kenny Boynton are not.  Those two will be joined by another standout guard, the second-rated 2-guard in the class, Brad Beal.  Patric Young came in this year as a highly-touted center, and he showed flashes that he could be ready to reach that potential next year. 

#12 Missouri:  This is a real tough team to figure out right now.  They only lose one senior (reserve Justin Safford), but the wheels seemed to really come off this year as they stumbled to an 11-seed.  More importantly, coach Mike Anderson is gone, along with his unique pressing style.  New coach Frank Haith is pretty unproven and will have to adapt to personnel that may not fit his usual style.  Either way, assuming nobody transfers or heads to the NBA (not a safe assumption), they have a loaded backcourt of Marcus Denmon, Kim English, Michael Dixon, and Flip Pressey.  Laurence Bowers and Ricardo Ratliffe give them two capable interior guys to complement the perimeter talent.

#13 Xavier: After a disappointing non-conference performance this year, Xavier dominated the A-10.  If Tu Holloway stays for his senior year, they’ll have their top three scorers back, with Mark Lyons and Kenny Frease also returning.  They’ll add the top recruit in the league after beating out Georgetown and Tennessee for swingman Dezmine Wells. 

#14 Temple:  The Owls will be right there to battle Xavier for the A-10 crown.  Lavoy Allen is a huge loss, but everyone else is back from a team that barely missed a Sweet 16 appearance, even with two of their starters hurt.  Juan Fernandez will have to have a better year at the point.  They’ll have plenty of perimeter scoring punch, with Fernandez, Ramone Moore, Khalif Wyatt, and Scootie Randall.  The big question is whether or not they’ll get enough help in the frontcourt to go along with Michael Eric and Rahlir Jefferson.  They’ll be hoping Anthony Lee, who missed his freshman year this year with an injury, is up to the task.

#15 Michigan:  It was a matter of time before John Beilein got things going in Ann Arbor, and after nearly taking down Duke in the 2nd Round of this year’s tourney, next year could be the breakout year for the program.  Darius Morris and Tim Hardaway Jr. will lead the way for a team that has everyone back and looks like it will be the 2nd-best team in a largely rebuilding Big Ten.

#16 UCLA:  It looks like Ben Howland finally has things back on track, but the loss of Tyler Honeycutt to the draft will hurt.  Still, returnees Reeves Nelson, Malcolm Lee, and Josh Smith will be joined by the Wear twins (transfers from UNC), and the Bruins could enter the season as Pac-10 favorites for the first time in a few years.

#17 Memphis:  It was a somewhat disappointing season at Memphis, but maybe that’s not surprising considering they were relying so much on freshmen, with a young head coach at the helm.  Those freshmen, led by Will Barton and Joe Jackson, will all be back, along with veteran Wesley Witherspoon.  Josh Pastner has also added another All-American recruit with local product Adonis Thomas.

#18 Gonzaga:  Steven Gray departs after a stellar career, but Marquise Carter came on strong at the end of the year, dropping 24 points on St. John’s in the tourney, and looks ready to replace Gray’s production.  Robert Sacre and Elias Harris are two really nice pieces in the frontcourt, and Demetri Goodson has one last shot to live up to his potential at the point.

#19 Arizona:  If Derrick Williams returns, this is clearly the best team out West, but I’m assuming he’ll end up in the draft.  Everyone else will return though, led by Momo Jones and Kyle Fogg, with two excellent guards also coming in as freshmen: Josiah Turner and Nick Johnson.

#20 Marquette:  Darius Johnson-Odom and Jae Crowder will lead the way, with Vander Blue, Junior Cadougan, and Chris Otule probably ready for expanded roles.