Tell Me I’m Crazy – This Season Isn’t Over

If the Eagles don’t make what would be, admittedly, a pretty astounding comeback to win the NFC East this year, it will be one of the bigger disappoinments of my sporting life.  In fact, I think it will be The Biggest Disappointment if you look at it from a full-season standpoint.  Yes, the Phillies losses in the last two playoffs were devastating, but they did win 97 and 102 game, respectively, more than anyone else in the game, so was the whole season that disappointing?  Yes, the Eagles back-to-back NFC Championship Game losses to Tampa and Carolina were (as I’ve said many times), two of the three most devastating single games of my life (the third being Temple’s second-round defeat to Seton Hall in the 2000 NCAA tournament).  But, like the Phils, were the whole seasons that disappointing?

Think about it:  after adding SIX Pro Bowlers and losing essentially nothing from a young team that won 10 games team and the division title last year, I would argue that this is the most talented Eagles roster of my lifetime.  And, with the Giants and Cowboys pretty mediocre and the Redskins atrocious, this is, almost inarguably, the worst NFC East of my lifetime.  So, HOW THE HELL AREN’T THEY GOING TO WIN THIS DIVISION?!? 

Add to the mix the fact that this team would be 9-1 if all games ended after 3 quarters, and it’s enough to make you want to pull your hair out.

Well, I’m here to say that all hope is not lost.  After looking at the schedules and playing around with ESPN’s amazing “Playoff Machine,” I am of the opinion that is not far-fetched to think that this team may actually win this division after all. 

There are two things that absolutely have to happen for us to even have this discussion:

1. The Eagles lose no more than 1 of their final 6 games
   While, obviously, running the table and getting to 10 wins would clearly be ideal (I would even argue – later in this post, actually – that a 10-6 Eagles team that does NOT win the division will be a real surprise), it’s not absurd to believe that this division may be won at 9-7.  Obviously, 8-8 will not win this division (nor should it), no matter what kinds of crazy tiebreakers a team holds.
2. They beat the Cowboys on Christmas Eve
   There are no two ways about it.  It’s nearly impossible to concoct a conceivable chain of events that has the Eagles winning the division without that chain including a Week 16 victory in Big D.  Not only would this give the Cowboys another much-needed L, but it would then clinch every tiebreaker scenario for the Birds against both Dallas and the Giants.

Let me say that again:  If the Eagles beat Dallas in Week 16, they will clinch every single tiebreaker against both the Cowboys and Giants.

So, how do we get ourselves tied?  Let us start with the easy answer:

WIN OUT – If the Birds sweep their final 6 games, they will be 10-6 and almost a lock to win this division because it’s hard to really see the Cowboys getting to 11 wins, and it’s even harder figuring a way for the Giants to get there.  In fact, with the Giants and Cowboys playing each other twice in the final 6 weeks, it’s safe to say that if they split these games and the Eagles win out the Eagles will win the division.  But, let’s look at other ways each team could get to 11 wins:

Cowboys -> 7-4 after Thanksgiving win over Miami
Left on the schedule:  Two with the Giants (Weeks 14 & 17); One with the Eagles (Week 16)
And, road games at Arizona (Week 13) and Tampa Bay (Week 15)

Working under the assumption the Eagles are going to win out, then the Cowboys would pick up their 5th loss in Week 16 against the Birds.  So, that means, to get to 11-5, the ‘Boys would have to win their other 4 games, which would include sweeping the Giants and winning a pair of road games against a Tampa team that brought back the same young core from a 10-win team a year ago and an Arizona team that has been pretty feisty as of late.

Giants -> 6-4 after Week 11 loss to the Birds
Left on the schedule:  Two with the Cowboys (Weeks 14 & 17); One with Washington (Week 15)
And, a trio of brutal games – at New Orleans (Monday night); home to Green Bay (next week); and at the Jets on Christmas Eve (Week 16)

In order for the Giants to hit the 11-win mark, they would have to find no more than one single loss among that brutal slate of games.  That means that they would either have to sweep their remaining divisional games (2 with Dallas, 1 with Washington), which is never easy in the NFC East OR beat the Saints and Packers in successive weeks AND beat the Jets in a raucous MetLife Stadium on Christmas Eve.

So, can we all agree that if the Eagles run the table and get to 10-6, they will most likely win this division, considering they own all the tiebreakers and the schedules ahead for Dallas and the Giants almost eliminate them from 11-5 potential?

Good. 

Now, can we all agree that winning out (which would be 7 straight) for this incredibly inconsistent team that is just now getting hit with its share ofinjuries, is not something we’re willing to bet the farm on? 

Okay, so, now what?  Well, we have two choices – we can either (a) pour a stiff drink and try and figure out what the hell happened to make this team blow FIVE 4th-quarter leads in their first 10 games, including a home loss to the lowly Arizona Cardinals with a backup quarterback and blowing a 20-point lead to the not-so-high-flying offense of San Francisco…or (b) we can take a look at the schedule and see how 9-7 wins this division.

I will choose the latter for the time being, but I reserve the right to exercise the former at some future period.

So, we’re trying to find a playoff spot for a 9-7 Eagles team, huh?  Well, for starters, let’s reiterate again that, as long as that 7th loss isn’t to Dallas in Week 16, the Birds will hold all tiebreakers over both the Giants and Cowboys for the title, so they would only lose out to a 10-win team.  Let’s look at the possibilities that this happens based on the results of the two head-to-head games Dallas and NY have:

Scenario 1:  The Giants and Cowboys split
This situation makes it difficult for the Birds (mostly because the Redskins and Dolphins can’t make field goals), but not impossible.  The split adds a 5th loss to both teams, plus we can tack another of one on to the Cowboys for the Week 16 loss to the Eagles, for a total of 6.  So, to hit 10 wins, the Cowboys would have to win both of their other two games – on the road – against Arizona and Tampa Bay.  While I don’t hold a ton of hope in the Cards, there is at least a chance, right?  And, then the Boys would have to go into Tampa Bay and beat a decent Bucs team (albeit a team probably not playing for anything by that point).

Now, for the Giants.  They get their 5th loss against the Boys.  That would mean that the Giants would have to beat three of these four teams – Packers, Saints, Jets, Redskins.  How likely is that?

Scenario 2:  The Giants sweep Dallas
This would probably be the best-case scenario because it would eliminate the Cowboys from getting to 10 wins (2 L’s to NYG and 1 to Phi would be 7 for the season).  The danger is that the Giants would only need to go 2-2 in their games with New Orleans, Green Bay, Washington, and the Jets.  Still tough, but a lot easier than needing three of them.

Scenario 3:  The Cowboys sweep the Giants
This is probably the worst-case scenario for the Eagles because that would give the Cowboys 9 wins in the bag and all they would have to do is beat Arizona OR the Bucs on the road.  I had planned on writing this post at the beginning of the week and, trust me, it would have looked even brighter had the Cowboys, somehow, not squeeked by against in back-to-back weeks against the Skins and Phins.  But, we can take solace in the fact that they struggled mightily to get by against a couple of 3-win teams going nowhere.

So, what does this all tell us?  That if the Birds can run off 6 straight (the toughest one being this weekend), they should be considered the favorites to win the division.  But, even 1 loss puts them in a position that is not nearly as dreary as it might otherwise seem.  Keep up hope, my friends, all is not lost.

Come on, tell me I’m crazy!