Assessing the Eagles’ Playoff Chances

I’m sure I wasn’t alone in completely writing off the Eagles playoff chances after the disaster in Baltimore a few weeks ago.  They were sitting at 5-5-1, with possibly 4 of their last 5 games against playoff-bound teams.  It seemed that their only shot at the playoffs was to win all 5 games. 

Well, after knocking off the Cardinals and the Giants in successive weeks, they are 2/5 of the way to that goal, with the biggest hurdle already behind them.  Let’s assume that they beat Cleveland at home on Monday night (I’m not really assuming that, but for the sake of this discussion, let’s go with it).  That will leave them with two divisional games: at Washington and then Dallas at home to close out the season. 

Both of those games will be tough, but it’s very possible the Eagles will be favored in each of them.  The Redskins were playing well at the beginning of the season (including a win in Philly), but if you look at their last 8 games, it’s pretty dismal.  In that span, they are 3-5, with the three wins against Detroit, Seattle, and Cleveland, and a loss at home to St. Louis.  If the Eagles can keep playing the way they have the last two weeks (admittedly, not a small ‘if’), they should win that game.

That win would set up a showdown with Dallas in Week 17 that could be a virtual playoff game, with the winner taking a wild-card spot and the loser going home.  It’s too far in advance to start thinking about how that game would play out, but it’s safe to say it would be very interesting. 

Now, what are the chances that the Eagles can lose a game and still sneak into the playoffs, with a 9-6-1 record?  Certainly not good, but let’s take a quick look at the situation.  Right now, you can mark down division crowns for the Giants and the Cardinals.  Let’s assume (again, not a completely safe assumption) that a wild-card doesn’t come out of the North, and Minnesota or Chicago wins the division.  With Carolina already at 10 wins and Tampa Bay just one win away from that plateau, let’s put both of them into the field. That leaves only one spot, with the contenders being: Dallas (8-5), Atlanta (8-5), Washington (7-6), New Orleans (7-6), and the Eagles. 

Of those other four teams, Atlanta actually figures to be the biggest threat.  They need to win 2 of 3 to get to 10 wins, and one of their remaining games is St. Louis at home, so you can give them that one.  That means they have to either beat Tampa at home or Minnesota on the road.  Eagles fans should keep a close eye on both of those contests, rooting for a Falcon loss.

Anyway, based on my incredibly unscientific calculations (and help with the math from the resident BSB mathematics expert, Jason Cim),  we’ve determined that the Eagles’ odds of making the playoffs with a 9-6-1 record is roughly 14.3%.  In other words, it’s fairly safe to call each game a “must-win”.