Tell Me I’m Crazy: Some Bold College Hoops Predictions

Now that that awful 2011-12 NFL season has drawn to an awful conclusion, everyone can now turn their attention a college hoops season that is much more intriguing than one might think, given the disappoinment of some of the top teams and major conferences.  There are, as always, plenty of intriguing storylines all over the country as we enter the meat of the season.  The month of February is always fantastic for college hoops, and I am ready to make some random, bold (sure-to-be-wrong) predictions about what we will see in the next month and a half.

So…tell me I’m crazy, but:

1). No more than 10 “Rich Conference” teams will constitute this year’s Sweet Sixteen
In order for this to be true, I am going to have to find six S16 spots for “mid-major” teams.  I think I can…

• M-West/WCC [2, maybe 3]
  UNLV, St. Mary’s, Gonzaga, San Diego St. (possibly even BYU or New Mexico)
  These teams would all compete in any conference in America and should be given decent seedings, with UNLV and St. Mary’s maybe even cracking a top-4 seed, which means that they would only have to avoid an upset to make the S16.
• A-10/C-USA [1, maybe 2]
  Temple, Xavier, S.Miss, Memphis (outside shot with St. Louis, Marshall, UCF, or even Tulsa or Dayton)
  These teams are all pretty frisky (and very well-coached), particularly the top 2 in the A-10.  Would you be shocked to see one from this group in the S16? 

So, call it 4 between those two groups.  I still need two more…

• Teams Wearing White in First Round [1]
  Murray State, Creighton, Harvard
  They should all be in the 4-8 seed range, so they will be the seed-favorite in their first game, at least.  Is it that far-fetched that one of them wins again in Round Two?
• The Mid-Major Elites [possibly 1]
  Wichita St., Nevada, Cleveland St., the CAA Champ (Drexel/VCU/George Mason/ODU), the MAC Champ (Ohio/Akron/Kent St.)
  These teams have, for the most part, all been there before, and all have solid teams again this year.  Plus, they are all looking at seedings around 8-13 or so.  Whichever teams fall in the 11-, 12-, or 13-seed ranges would realistically have a route to the S16 that doesn’t include a Rich Conference powerhouse.  You mean to tell me that Wichita or Nevada can’t beat Vanderbilt on a Thursday and then Marquette on a Saturday?
• The Cinderellas [possibly 1]
  Iona, Long Beach St., Belmont, Weber St., Oral Roberts, Middle Tennessee
  These teams are looking at 12-14 seed lines, but have the talent to give anyone in the country a fit on a nightly basis.  There are stars on these teams that can get hot and put their teams on their backs (it happens every year).

So, that puts us at at least 6, right?  And, while I’m certainly not banking on it, if we absolutely need another, what about this group?

• The Real Longshots [realistically none, but there’s at least a chance, right?]
  The Patriot champ (Bucknell/Lehigh), the Big South champ (UNC-Asheville/Coastal Carolina), the NEC champ (Long Island/Wagner), the Southland champ (UT-Arlington/UTSA/Lamar)
  Okay, I’m probably destroying all my credibility just by mentioning these teams as potential S16 teams (particularly because they’re staring at 15- or 16-seedings if they even survive their conference tournaments), but the fact that I’m pretty confident that I’ll get my 6 already from the above groups, I just wanted to throw it out there as a non-zero chance.

2). Murray State Will Lose At Least Two Games (Quite Possibly 3) Before Selection Sunday
This kind of flies in the face of my #1 prediction a little bit because if they do lose 2 or 3 games, they will certainly not be a high seed and (depending on whether one of those losses is in the OVC tournament) may not even make the tournament.  But, either way, I think this team will have multiple losses before Selection Sunday.  St. Mary’s is going to beat them in the BracketBusters matchup, and I can easily see them dropping TWO OVC games down the stretch, as their conference schedule is severely backloaded.  They still have road games left against the #2, #3, and #4 teams in the OVC, including the regular season finale at Tennessee Tech, who was picked OVER Murray St. to win the league preseason.  And, that game is the second of a two-game road trip to end the season, as they play a pretty good Tennessee State team two days prior to the Tech game.  They also go on the road (3 days before BracketBusters) to face a SE Missouri State team that almost beat them in Murray last week.

3). Pittsburgh Will Go Further in the NCAA Tournament Than UConn
This wouldn’t have been all that “bold” to say two months ago, but the Panthers lost their first 7 Big East games.  And, while UConn hasn’t exactly lived up to their preseason hype, they were picked by many people to actually repeat as champions this year.  But, in the months of February and March, college hoops games are won by leaders (generally, point guards) and Pitt’s troubles came when their leader was hurt and now is back.  The leader that UConn is missing is on the Charlotte Bobcats and isn’t coming back.  Travon Woodall is not the best player on Pitt (he’s probably 3rd or 4th, at best), but, as was shown when he was sidelined, he is probably the most important.  Now that he’s back, this team is ready to roll.  UConn lost Kemba Walker to the NBA and, while their overall basketball talent is probably much better than last year’s version with Kemba, they have no “F you” player on the team this year.

4). Despite Getting 9 or 10 Teams in the Field, the Big East Will Rank No Higher Than 5th, as a Conference, in Combined NCAA Tournament Wins
This conference stinks.  And, I fully support the inclusion of 9-10 Big East teams.  But, these teams are not good.  The Big Ten has quality teams that will win in March.  The Big XII is top-heavy, but those teams at the top are really, really, really good.  And, Kentucky and UNC, by themselves, might win more games than the Big East’s 10 teams, so they won’t even need help from the Floridas or Dukes of the world to help them out.

5). The 2012 NCAA Men’s Basketball Champion Will Be…North Carolina
It’s stupidly early to make a championship prediction, but I’m stupid, so I’m going to do it.  Now, for all of those saying “that’s not that bold,” well, you’re probably right, but it’s at least justified by the fact that they will most likely not be a #1-seed, and that there is one team that has seperated itself as the clear #1 team in the country right now (Kentucky).  But, to me, the Tar Heels are the best, most balanced, most experienced team in the country and are just waiting for the big stage to really turn it on.  They remind me of the second Florida title team that all came back to school to win another title and didn’t really seem to care until tournament time.

6). Northwestern Will Make Their First NCAA Tournament in School History
This was a huge story in each of the past two years because the Wildcats started hot and looked in position to make it.  But, in each year, they faded down the stretch and were (justly) left out of the field.  This year, there has been no talk about them making it because, well, they haven’t really deserved any discussion with the way they’ve played.  But, I think this team has the talent and is starting to put it together.  They beat Illinois on the road on Sunday and have some other opportunities to earn themselves the historic inclusion (@Purdue 2/12, @Indiana 2/15, and then Minnesota, Michigan, and Ohio St. at home down the stretch).  With a pretty soft bubble (a phrase I am embarrassed to use because of its disgusting overuse during this month) and the 68-team field, I like their chances.

7). The MAC Western Division Will Not Win Another Game Against a MAC Eastern Division Team
I would have made this prediction before they even started playing games, which would have been much bolder (and, ultimately, wrong), so it seems a little less bold now, but this still includes 12 regular season games and a slew of conference tournament games.  While that preseason prediction would have been wrong – it wouldn’t have been that crazy, as the East is currently 21-3 against the West, including back-to-back nights where they won all 6 inter-division games.  This is more of a statement of opposition against the way the conference tournament is slated, where, not only will two Western Division teams receive byes, but two more will have home games in the first round against far superior Eastern Division teams.  For example, there is a chance that Kent State (16-6, 94 RPI) will have their first conference tournament game ON THE ROAD against Toledo (10-13, 283) or Central Michigan (7-15, 249).  And, while Kent has that opening round road game, Ball State (12-9, 235) and Eastern Michigan (5-4, 227) will have BYES to the quarterfinals.  It’s incredibly unfair and really has never (in my recollection) been exemplified as egregiously as this year in the MAC because the six best teams in the conference and the six Eastern Division teams.  It’s a joke…