CTC Day 2 Preview: Chasing the Leader

After an upset-starved Day One, we not embark on Day 2.  Ina’s perfect day has put her ahead early and Lynch’s struggles have him behind, but, obviously, there is a LONG way to go.

SUN BELT OPENING ROUND:
Prior to the Big East’s expansion to a 16-team tournament, the Sun Belt held the distinction of being the largest conference tournament in D-1, with 13 teams.  The first round of the Sun Belt tournament remains the largest single-round in all of D-1 conference tournaments–the only round with 5 games.  Those five games all tip-off tonight around the different Sun Belt campuses.  The 13-team format worked out well this year because there were three dominant teams this year (W. Kentucky, AR-Little Rock, and Troy) and this format yields three byes.  The other ten teams play tonight.  Last year, the Sun Belt conference was the only conference that Ina lost, only getting 22 points.  Alexi won the conference with 52 points; Waters was close with 46, and everyone else had 32 or fewer.

• #13 Florida-Atlantic (2-16) at #4 N. Texas (11-7).  FL-Atlantic only won two conference games all year and are 12.5-point underdogs tonight at N. Texas.  However, Bry and Waters still went with FAU and their notorious coach, Mike Jarvis.  Waters even has this team winning two games.  This game is big for Stri because he has N. Texas going all the way to the finals.
• #12 Arkansas St. (5-13) at #5 Middle Tennessee St. (10-8).  Arkansas St. was, at one point, 5-4 in conference play.  But, nine losses later, they sit at 5-13 and the #12 seed, travelling to MTSU for a first-round game.  Lynch, Stri, and Doogan all decided that they would not end their season on a 10-game losing streak, as they picked this upset.  Doogan and Lynch even have them winning their quarterfinal game, as well.
• #11 New Orleans (6-12) at #6 S. Alabama (10-8).  Defending regular-season champs, S. Alabama, struggled to a 6th-place finish this year, but is a good home team.  Waters and Stri both picked New Orleans in this 10-point upset.  This is big for Bry and J, as they have S. Alabama going on and beating Troy in the quarters, before losing in the semis.
• #10 Louisiana-Monroe (6-12) at #7 Denver (9-9).  UL-Monroe travels to Denver for their first-round game tonight.  Only J thinks that they can go in there and win.  Lynch has Denver going to the semifinals.
• #9 Florida-International (7-11) at #8 Louisiana-Lafayette (7-11).  Not only is LA-Lafayette at home and favored tonight, but they also have the best nickname in college sports–the Ragin’ Cajuns.  However, it did not sway more than half of us (Bry, Ina, J, Alexi, and Waters) from going with the visiting Golden Panthers.  But, as far as the CTC goes, this game means nothing next round because all 8 of us have W. Kentucky defeating whoever comes out of this matchup.

PATRIOT LEAGUE QUARTERFINALS:
One of the classic low-major conferences is the Patriot League.  They play a true round-robin regular season and their 8 teams always play a standard 3-round tournament in the tiny, but packed gyms of the higher seeds.  The league has had the same 8 teams for, well, as long as I can remember, and it is always a very entertaining tournament.  This year looks a little top-heavy, as American and Holy Cross dominated the regular-season, but we will see if any of these other teams can rise up and steal a bid.  Doogan is the defending PL champion (56 points last year), while Bry and Waters will try and come back from an absolutely dismal performance in the Patriot League last year (6 points each).

• #8 Lafayette (4-10) at #1 American (13-1).  The dominant team all year long, American only lost one conference game–at Holy Cross in January.  They are riding a 10-game winning streak into the tournament and none of us think that this will end tonight.  In fact, only Waters thinks that this American team will not win the whole tournament–he doesn’t even have them in the finals, so he will be rooting against the heavily-favored Eagles tonight.
• #7 Bucknell (4-10) at #2 Holy Cross (11-3).  What if I told you that Holy Cross only lost one conference game at home all year?  Then, what if I told you that Bucknell only won one conference game on the road all year?  Would you be confident that Holy Cross would beat Bucknell at home tonight?  Well, what if I told you that that “1” on each side was a 72-66 Bucknell win at Holy Cross on Valentine’s Day?  Still confident?  Well, it seems that everyone except Lynch and Doogan are still confident, as the other 6 picked Holy Cross to win this game.  There are pretty big future implications, as well, as Lynch and Doogan both have Bucknell winning again in the semis.  Waters is on the other side of the debate here, as he has Holy Cross winning the whole thing (the only non-American pick).
• #6 Colgate (5-9) at #3 Navy (8-6).  #3 vs #6 games are not supposed to be so one-sided with the picks, but only Alexi thinks that Colgate (preseason pick as the one team that could challenge American this year) can win this game on the road.  Everyone else has The Academy.  J and Stri even have the Midshipmen in the finals.
• #5 Lehigh (5-9) at #4 Army (6-8).  Apparently, the Iraq war have gone a long way in eroding our confidence in the military because despite being favored at home tonight, only Waters and Ina believe that the Army will defeat Lehigh tonight.  Everyone else has Lehigh in the minor upset.   In fact, this is especially big for Waters, as he has Army defeating American in the semifinals en route to a finals loss to Holy Cross.

ATLANTIC SUN QUARTERFINALS:
In an 11-team conference in flux, after the Gardner-Webb departure, the Atlantic Sun only has 7 eligible teams for the NCAA tournament, so only 7 teams are competing in this year’s conference tournament, which is being played on the campus of #4 Lipscomb, in Nashville, TN.  Jacksonville edged out E. Tennessee St. and Belmont for the regular-season title and, therefore, a first-round bye and, as importanly, the ability to avoid either of those two until the finals.  Waters (16 points), Stri, and Alexi (20 points each) struggled in last year’s A-Sun tournament; J did not.  J will try and repeat his PERFECT bracket (54 points) of a year ago.  As they did last year (in an attempt to give more of an advantage to the regular-season results), the quarterfinals will be played over two days.  Therefore, only one of the three quarterfinal matchups will be played tonight.

• #7 Stetson (9-11) vs #2 E. Tennessee St. (14-6).  E. Tennessee St. is one of the perennially best teams in this conference, and this season is no different.  Plus, with the Buccanneers closer to Nashville than Stetson and home Lipscomb not playing until tomorrow night, they may have a partisan crowd there tonight.  Despite all of that, though, Doogan, Stri, and Waters all went with Stetson and the potential 10 upset points.