CTC Day 4 Preview

Well, the first three days are the calm before the storm.  Everyone is just jockeying for position, but starting today/tonight is when stuff really starts to move.  This weekend is huge…and this week is only really the “preseason.”  Nine conference tournaments either continue or start tonight, including 4 quarterfinals in the 3x Missouri Valley and 4 opening round games in the 3x Colonial and the 3x WCC.  The 2x Horizon quarterfinals and the A-Sun semis are also tonight.  Tonight could go a long way to see who gets a leg up heading into the big boys.

MISSOURI VALLEY QUARTERFINALS:
Day 2 in St. Louis for “Arch Madness” and we are ready to go with a quadruple-header.  We will see the first appearances of everyone’s favorite, Creighton, and the actual favorite, N. Iowa.  We will also see a couple good games with no teams that had to play in the opening round.

• #1 Northern Iowa (14-4) vs. #9 Indiana State.  Indiana St., who knocked off Drake last night 62-55, comes back today to face the top-seeded Panthers in a quarterfinal match tonight.  Only Bry and Waters even had ISU in this round, and neither of them had them beating UNI.  But, Waters, J, and Doogan will be rooting for the underdog Sycamores, as they had Drake beating UNI in this round.  Everyone has Creighton winning this whole tournament, so Lynch, Alexi, Stri, and Ina’s pick of UNI in the finals is as far as anyone has them, so this is big for them, in that regard.
• #2 Creighton (14-4) vs. Wichita State.  The Wichita St. Shockers beat Missouri St. last night by 13 to get themselves to a quarterfinal matchup against #2 Creighton.  Everyone has Creighton winning the whole tournament, so this game means almost nothing in the grand scheme of the CTC.
• #3 Illinois State (11-7) vs. #6 Evansville (8-10).  A strong Illinois St. team opens against a hot Evansville team tonight in a classic quarterfinal matchup.  J and Doogan both took Evansville in what could be a 6-point upset. Obviously, no one has either team beating Creighton next round, so the points are only up for the taking here.
• #4 Bradley (10-8) vs. #5 Southern Illinois (8-10).  The Salukis started the season in a tough way, but they are very young and they started to get things going at the end of the season, making them a potential sleeper in this tournament.  Bradley, on the other hand, will not sneak up on anybody.  They are usually rather talented and won 10 conference games this year.  It should be a great game.  Only Lynch and Bry took the Salukis over Bradley.  This game is even bigger for Bry, J, and Waters, as Bry has SIU going to the finals, while J and Waters both have Bradley going to the finals.

COLONIAL OPENING ROUND:
One of the jewels of this first week of conference tournaments, the Colonial Conference Tournament tips off tonight in Richmond, VA, with four opening round games.  Interestingly, only Bry and Ina took the top seed, VCU to win this tournament.  Three of us took #3 George Mason (Waters, Alexi, and J), and two took #4 Old Dominion (Doogan and Stri), and one even took #9 Delaware (Lynch–yes he is an alumnus).  Alexi will try and defend his CAA title from a year ago, as he took 150 points out of this conference last year.  Stri (132) was the only one even close.  J (54) and Doogan (42) performed the worst in the CAA last year.

• #5 Hofstra (11-7) vs. #12 UNC-Wilmington (3-15).  A late-season swoon for the Pride (worst nickname ever, especially considering it was changed from the best–the Flying Dutchmen) cost them a first-round bye and forces them to battle UNC-Wilmington tonight, before meeting #4 Old Dominion tomorrow.  Doogan took the shot at 14 points, by picking UNC-Wilmington to beat Hofstra.  Lynch, Waters, and J all have Hofstra making the semis.
• #6 Drexel (10-8) vs. #11 Towson (5-13).  Bruiser and the Drexel Dragons were picked for last place in the CAA, but surprised everyone with 10 wins and a 6th-place finish.  They open their postseason tonight against Towson.  Only Alexi, possibly going with regional loyalty, picked Towson to win this game.  Lynch, Waters, Stri, and J all picked Drexel to go on and beat #3 Northeastern in the quarters.  Doogan and Lynch even have them going to the finals, but losing to Old Dominion and Delaware, respectively.
• #7 James Madison (9-9) vs. #10 William & Mary (5-13).  JMU had a very strong season, finishing 9-9, led by an experienced squad (including St. Joe’s transfer, Adbullai Jalloh).  William & Mary, which had a great season a year ago and just missed winning this tournament, limped home at 5-13 and 10th place.  But, the new season starts tonight.  Only Lynch took the underdog W&M team.  Everyone took George Mason to win the quarterfinal game against whoever wins this game.
• #8 Georgia State (8-10) vs. #9 Delaware (6-12).  Delaware, now with a reunited D.J. Boney and Juwan Carter (high school teammates at Tatnall our nation’s great first state) were expected to be better than they were, but, again, the new season starts tonight.  This game is much more important to Lynch than anyone else tonight, as he has the Fightin’ Blue Hens winning the CAA tournament.  J, Stri, and Waters all have UDel winning this game, but none of them have them beating #1 VCU in the quarters.

WEST COAST CONFERENCE OPENING ROUND:
In the 3x conference of the WCC, this tournament should be very interesting.  There are “bubble” eyes on this conference, not just CTC eyes.  Gonzaga, probably a lock for the Big Dance, could steal a bid if they are to falter.  St. Mary’s, the #2-seed, is firmly on the bubble and probably needs to reach the finals to even have a shot at an at-large bid.  For the first time in many years, this tournament has moved out of San Diego and into Las Vegas, so the Terreros will not have that home court advantage that vaulted them to the WCC title last year.  The WCC gives double-byes to the top 2 seeds and single byes to the next two seeds, so the opening round is only 2 games between the bottom 4 qualifiers.  Waters is trying to defend his CTC WCC championship this year.  He had 60 points in the this conference last year.  Ina, J, and Stri were right on his heels, with 56.  Doogan really struggled–only scoring 36.

• #5 San Diego (6-8) vs. #8 Loyola Marymount (2-12).  The defending champion Terreros of San Diego struggled this year and have to play in the opening round.  But Rob Jones, the grandson of the infamous Jim Jones, is back this year for his sophomore campaign, a great compliment to the stars Gyno Pomare and the two Johnsons–Brandon and Trumaine.  Only Doogan picked LMU in the upset.  He even has LMU beating Santa Clara and going to the semis.  Alexi, Stri, J, and Bry all have USD going to the semis.
• #6 Pepperdine (5-9) vs. #7 San Francisco (3-11).  The Dons of USF will open their postseason tonight against the Pepperdine Waves.  Bry, J, Doogan, and Stri all went with USF in the upset.  Lynch is the only one that thinks one of these teams can make the semis, as he has Pepperdine beating Portland in the quarters.

ATLANTIC SUN SEMIFINALS:
After a 2-day, 3-game quarterfinal round, the A-Sun is ready to set up the two teams that will get some ESPN time tomorrow in the championship.  No one has lost a finalist yet, except Stri (who has lost them both), so this could be a night with pretty big CTC implications.

• #1 Jacksonville (15-5) at #4 Lipscomb.  Lipscomb, who gets to play the tournament on their home floor, won their 9th straight game last night with a 30-point shellacking of #5 Campbell.  They get a shot tonight to take out the top dog, Jacksonville.  Surprisingly, only Alexi, Waters, and J picked Jacksonville in this game.  Half of us (Bry, Ina, Lynch, and Doogan) all have Lipscomb going to the finals, with Ina and Doogan both have them winning it all.
• #2 East Tennessee State vs. #3 Belmont.  Both teams won quarterfinal games to get here, but ETSU has the advantage of having an extra day off–by design to give the #2 seed an advantage.  Also, ETSU won their game a little more easily than Belmont, who is here because of a last-second tip-in by a backup freshman forward last night, otherwise it would be the Buccanneers versus Mercer.  This game is huge, as no one has #1 Jacksonville winning this tournament.  As mentioned, Ina and Doogan both had Lipscomb; and, Stri had Campbell (who is eliminated).  The other 5 of us have a champion playing in this game tonight.  Bry, Alexi, and Waters have Belmont winning it all; Lynch and J have ETSU.

OHIO VALLEY SEMIFINALS:
In a tournament that started with 4 quarterfinal matchups on Day 1 of the CTC, the Ohio Valley moves to Nashville, TN, for the semifinals tonight, and the finals tomorrow.  There are some pretty big CTC implications in these games tonight.  Bry is trying to win another CTC OVC championship.  He had 42 points here last year.  Waters is trying to improve upon an 8-point performance in the OVC last year.

• #1 Tennessee-Martin vs. #4 Morehead State.  The top-seeded TN-Martin squad, led by future NBA first-round pick, Lester Hudson who dominated the 18-point quarterfinal win over Tennessee Tech with 42 points, 9 rebounds, and 9 assists will face a very strong #4-seed, Morehead St.  Morehead St. beat a very good E. Kentucky team by 19, at home, on Tuesday, to get themselves to Nashville.   Other than Waters and Lynch, who have already lost this game, only Alexi has does not have TN-Martin, as he went with Morehead St.   The most at stake here is Bry, who has TN-Martin winning this tournament.
• #2 Austin Peay vs. #3 Murray St.  Two teams that went 13-5 in the regular season and survived home quarterfinal games meet here tonight with ESPN air time on the line.  Austin Peay struggled with E. Illinois on Tuesday, winning by just 3, while Murray St. beat a red-hot Tennessee St. team by 14.  With the exception of Lynch, who has already lost this game (having Tennessee St. winning here), only Bry has Austin Peay.  The other 6 of us has Murray St.  In fact, the other 6 all have Murray St. winning the whole tournament, so this could be HUGE for Bry if Austin Peay can pull out the victory.

HORIZON QUARTERFINALS:
In another tournament that hasn’t had action since opening on Day 1, with 4 opening round games, The Horizon League moves to the campus of #1-seed Butler for the quarters tonight and the semis tomorrow.  #1 Butler and #2 UW-Green Bay get their second bye of the tournament into the semis and await the two winners tonight.  Ina and Waters dominated the Horizon last year–each scoring 104 points, or 28 more than anyone else.  Stri has especially off in the Horizon, only registering 24 points.

• #3 Cleveland State vs. #7 Illinois-Chicago.  UIC is here after upsetting Youngstown St. on the road, while Cleveland St. held Detroit to 43 points on Tuesday.  The winner of this game will play #2 UW-Green Bay tomorrow night in the semis.  6 of the 8 of us have Cleveland St. moving on in this game.  Waters is the only one that can pull out the 8 upset points if UIC wins tonight.  Stri has already lost this game, having picked Youngstown St. to prevail here.
• #4 Wright State vs. #5 UW-Milwaukee.  In the best game of the tournament so far, the 4th-seeded Wright St. Raiders will face the 5th-seeded UW-Milwaukee Panthers for the right to take on the home #1 seed, Butler tomorrow in the semis.  Wright St. is coming off a 12-point win at home on Tuesday against Valparaiso, while UW-Milwaukee defeated Loyola (IL) by 9 at home that same night.  5 of the 8 of us have Wright St. in this game.  Alexi and Lynch have UW-Milwaukee.  Waters has already lost this game, having taken Valpo to win here.

SoCON OPENING ROUND:
Davidson Conference teams actually beat Davidson twice this year.  But, Stephen Curry is healthy and it is, after all, the Davidson Conference.  Well, the top 4 seeds will get the day, as the bottom 8 will battle in Chattanooga tonight for 4 spots in the quarters.  It will be interesting to see how this pans out because the one division, the South, was MUCH better than the North.  Even with the unbalanced schedules, Wofford, who finished 4th in the South would have WON the North.  Interestingly, both Stri and Lynch went against Davidson winning this tournament, as they took The Citadel and Chattanooga, respectively.  Ina won a very close SoCon race last year in the CTC.  She had 50 points, while Alexi had 48, Bry 46, and Doogan 44.  Stri (8) and Waters (12) struggled here last year.

• #3S College of Charleston (15-5) vs. #6N UNC-Greensboro (4-16).  This is the perfect example of the difference in the two divisions.  Coach Bobby Cremins led the College of Charleston to a 15-5 record against the tough Southern Division schedule, yet still has to play in the opening round, while teams such as Chattanooga and W. Carolina got byes.  But, then again, Charleston takes on a pretty bad UNC-Greensboro team tonight, so it might be kind of like a bye for Coach Cremins.  Everyone, except Lynch, has College of Charleston winning not only this game, but the next game also.  Stri even has them defeating Davidson and going to the finals.  Lynch took the huge TWENTY-FOUR point upset of UNC-Greensboro.  And, if you think that is bold, let me tell you that he also took them in a TWENTY-SIX point upset in the next round against W. Carolina.
• #3N Samford (9-11) vs. #6S Furman (4-16).  Though the Southern Division is much better, the bottom two teams really struggled this year, including Furman.  They have a shot, though, to beat #3N Samford tonight and move on to face #2S The Citadel tomorrow.  Bry, Lynch, and Doogan all took #6S Furman in the upset tonight.  Everyone has The Citadel beating whomever they picked in this game, so there are no future CTC implications.
• #4S Wofford (12-8) vs. #5N Elon (7-13).  An extremely strong Wofford team takes on Elon tonight in the opening round.  Waters and Lynch both took a shot at the 6 upset points with Elon.  Neither of them have Elon moving on after that.  Bry, J, Doogan, and Alexi all have Wofford winning this game and moving on to defeat #1N Chattanooga in the quarters, so it is a big game for them.  Alexi and Doogan took it even a step further, as they have Wofford going all the way to the finals, before losing to Stephen Curry…I mean, Davidson.
• #4N Appalachian State (9-11) vs. #5S Georgia-Southern (5-15).  Appalachian St., famous for their football glory, takes on Georgia-Southern in the opener of the SoCon opening round quadruple-header today.  As only a 2-point upset pick, Alexi is the only one to take Georgia-Southern in this game.  Everyone has Davidson winning whomever comes out of this game.

MAAC OPENING ROUND:
The MAAC also opens tonight, with two opening round games.  Siena, who was supposed to be one of the best mid-major teams in the country, but they did not get any big wins in non-conference, and they probably cannot get an at-large bid.  But, they are still favored to win the MAAC’s auto-bid, especially since it is in Albany.  It won’t be easy, though, as Niagara and Rider both have solid, capable teams coming up to the Capitol.  Bry, J, Alexi, and Waters all went with the favored Saints to win the tournament.  Whereas, Lynch, Doogan, Stri, and Ina all went with #2 Niagara (who recently defeated Siena in their regular season finale).  Last year, in the CTC, the MAAC was one of three conference that J won, scoring 52 points.  Waters was relatively close, with 46.  Bry (16) and Alexi (12) performed the worst in this conference last year.

• #7 Iona (7-11) vs. #10 Marist (4-14).  The Red Foxes struggled to a last-place finish this year, but they have been reborn here in the tournament.  Iona, coached by former Sixer, Jeff Rulen, has been good for a couple of years, but struggled this year.  Bry, Stri, Ina, and Waters all picked Marist in the upset.  No one has either of these teams beating Niagara in the quarters.
• #8 Loyola (MD) (7-11) vs. #9 Canisius (4-14).  Canisius also struggled this year and will face Loyola (MD) in the opening round tonight.  Doogan, Ina, and Stri were all swayed to take Canisius in this one.  No one has either of these teams defeating #1 Siena in the quarters.

AMERICA EAST OPENING ROUND:
An interesting tournament in the America East kicks off tonight, capping off another good season for one of the lower-level conferences in the country.  Binghamton and Vermont shared the regular season crown, while defending champ UMBC slipped to 6th.  Tonight is only the one play-in game between the two worst teams in the conference.  Alexi won the American East last year with 46 points.  Stri was right behind with 44; Waters was 3rd with 42.  Doogan (18) and J (24) finished at the bottom of this conference.

• #8 Maine (4-12) vs. #9 Hartford (2-14).  Hartford, losers of 10 straight take on the Maine Black Bears tonight in what is sure to be the most watched game of the evening.  In fact, this might be the worst postseason game all year, in any conference.  The two worst teams in the America East?  Are you kidding me?  I probably wouldn’t even watch this, and Dan Leibovitz (former John Chaney assistant) is the head coach at Hartford.  Anyway, Ina, Waters, Stri, and Doogan all took Hartford.  No one took either team to beat #1 Binghamton in the quarters.