7:07 on Friday in Indianapolis, IN
#1 Louisville vs. #12 Arizona
The one “Cinderella” is one of the winningest programs in NCAA history–Arizona. A 12-seed, who very few thought should even have made the tournament proved themselves and now gets a chance to crash the Big East party (aka the Elite Eight). But, to do that they will have to knock off the #1 overall seed, Louisville. This year is strange because, when trying to analyze a game (or fill out a bracket, even), all I keep thinking about are the flaws of each team. Every team is flawed–even the best teams–in pretty significant ways. I can’t imagine this Louisville team winning it all with their awful free throw shooting and mediocre guard play. So, I want to pick Arizona, but then I think about the ‘Cats abysmal RPI away from home and the fact that outside of their three NBA prospects (including two potential lottery picks), they are pretty bad. I am going to go with Louisville here, but only because I think their run-and-gun style forces opponents to use more guys and Arizona is pretty weak after Budinger, Hill, and Wise. Oh, and I do have a legitimate man-crush on Terrance Williams, so what?
7:27 on Friday in Memphis, TN
#2 Oklahoma vs. #3 Syracuse
You know after that 6-overtime game, you would think that Syracuse is pretty tir…if I hear that one more time. It was TWO WEEKS AGO! This group of 18-21 year olds are not still tired from a game two weeks ago. As far as this game goes, I am (like everyone else, including just about every NBA scout, agent, and general manager) in love with Blake Griffin’s game. I picked Oklahoma as “My Favorite” to win it all in my preseason preview and still believe that they can. I took them, in Vegas in December, at 25-1 to win the championship, and I still like that bet. That being said, I think this is a bad matchup for the Sooners. The Orange are playing with incredible confidence and have a made-for-college team with shooters like Devendorf and Rautins, a not-so-big-but-big-enough-for-college big guy in Paul Harris, the wide bodies down low, and the consumate college drive-and-kick point guard in Jonny Flynn. And, the worst part for the Sooners is that the biggest weakness in Syracuse’s game–their incredibly high turnover rate–is something that Oklahoma has not been good at capitalizing on all year long because their perimeter defense is mediocre. Plus, how do you beat Syracuse’s vaunted 2-3 zone? Ball movement and outside shooting, which puts all the impetus on good guard play. Griffin might be frustrated all night because he just can’t get the ball. As much as I HATE to do it (and I do HATE to pick any Boeheim-coached team, especially over “my favorite” of the year), I have to go with Syracuse to pull off the upset and put an incredible FIVE Big East teams in the Elite Eight.
9:37 on Friday in Indianapolis, IN
#2 Michigan State vs. #3 Kansas
Two of the nation’s best coaches square off in Indianapolis tonight. I think that Bill Self might be the national coach of the year for what he has done with these baby ‘Hawks. And, Tom Izzo should probably be in the running every year because, well, he is Tom Izzo. I have been down on this Jayhawk team all tournament, and I haven’t really seen anything that has changed my mind. They struggled with a good 14-seeded North Dakota State team and then played well to beat an 11-seeded Dayton team. Yes, Aldrich looks fantastic, but I’m not sold on Collins’s ability to bring it every night. And, on the other side, it’s a Tom Izzo team with multiple seniors and a lot of talent. You what that sounds like? A Final Four team. I’m picking Michigan State, as the only easy pick of the night.
9:57 on Friday in Memphis, TN
#1 North Carolina vs. #4 Gonzaga
For the second straight night, the nightcap is the game I am most interested to see. UNC is clearly the most talented team in the country, but the most talented team does not always win these things. In a topic for a post later today, I love this Gonzaga team and think that they have a real, legitimate shot at “shocking the world” tonight and beating the Tar Heels. This team is no longer just a well-coached, mid-major with one star mid-major player that teams take lightly. This is a well-coached, mid-major, BIG-TIME program, with a roster full of big-conference players. Then again, they are playing THE big-time program these days. Ty Lawson is healthy and don’t forget that Tyler Hansbrough is still on this team (you know, the all-time leading scorer in the ACC?). I really want to go the other way, but North Carolina is just too talented. It’s a shame because in any other region, I would have like the ‘Zags in the Final Four, just not here.
