MLB “Future” Examination

I love looking over the “futures” bets in Vegas sportsbooks.  I find them fascinating, actually.  I think it’s much more interesting to figure out the “best bets” when there are odds than just trying to pick division winners and such.  So, I’m going to try and rank each team in each division as far as the best bets, considering the Vegas odds on them winning their division.

NL EAST:
A fascinating division, even if you don’t have your heart invested in its outcome.  Will the Mets choke again?  Can the Phils make it three straight division titles, maybe en route to a second straight World Series title?  Are the Braves back?  Can the Fish pitch their way to a division title, before they decide to sell off all their young guys again?

• 5). Washington Nationals (20:1).  Right now, this team is very bad.  The future might be brighter with young pitchers.  Plus, they got a little better with Adam Dunn, but they lost 103 games last year.  There is absolutely no way that they win this division.  I wouldn’t take them at 100-to-1.
• 4). Atlanta Braves (3:1).  I’m not sold on the resurgence of the Braves.  I love the Derrick Lowe addition and the lineup is a little better than it projected at the start of the spring because of Garrett Anderson and the rookie steroid-user Jordan Schafer, but I still don’t think they have the horses to compete with the Mets and Phillies, who I feel are clearly just better baseball teams.  So, at only a 3-to-1 payout, it doesn’t make much sense to take the Braves.
• 3). Florida Marlins (10:1).  This is extremely tempting because the Marlins have such good pitching and an exciting offense that might be more exciting with Cameron Maybin at the top.  However (and maybe I’m biased here), I just think that the Mets and Phillies are such solid teams who push each other because of the rivalry, that one of them is going to win the East.  Plus, keep in mind that, though they have as many World Series titles as the Phillies do in their teams’ histories, the Marlins have never won a division title.
• 2). New York Mets (11:10).  This was actually pretty tough for me because I think Vegas got this right.  On paper, the Mets are clearly the favorites in the division, and even on the field, they probably are.  I just think that, with all the past choking and the potential injuries (remember, they got between 159-162 games out of Delgado, Wright, Reyes, and Beltran last year) that too much can go wrong for nearly an even money bet.  Plus, I think that, even objectively, we all should agree that the Mets and Phils are a very close 1-2, regardless of who you have in those two spots–and the Phillies have a considerably better payout…
• 1). Philadelphia Phillies (9:5).  …which is why, I feel that the Phillies at +180 to win the East is the best bet in this division.  I know that it’s hard for me to appear objective here, but I think I have looked at this soberly, and I can honestly tell you that if both teams had the same odds, I would definitely have the Mets ahead of the Phillies because I think they have a slightly better chance of winning this division…on paper…just like the last two years.  Haha, sorry, couldn’t resist.

NL CENTRAL:
The only 6-team division is also very interesting this year.  The Cubs are clearly the best team on paper, but can they put everything together?  Can the Cardinals make a resurgence?  Are the Reds–everyone’s “sleeper” (which makes them not a sleeper anymore, when everyone names them a “sleeper”)–going to finally emerge?  Can the Brewers make the playoffs again after losing their two best pitchers?  Can the Pirates have their first winning season in 17 years?

• 6). Pittsburgh Pirates (50:1).  Even at 50-to-1 (the longest odds of any team in any division), I would not even consider picking this team to win the division.  I think 50-to-1 are probably pretty good odds on whether or not they will be above .500.  So, no, this is not a good bet in a division with the Cubs…or any other division.
• 5). Houston Astros (20:1).  I don’t like this team.  The 20-to-1 odds for a team with Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt are very tempting, but, in the end, I really don’t think they have a chance to win this division, so it’s a losing bet.
• 4). Chicago Cubs (5:11).  If everyone in baseball was even money, and you asked me to pick one team that I was most confident would win their division, it would be, without hesitation, the Chicago Cubs.  But, it’s not even money.  In fact, it’s not even close.  The payout is worse than 1-to-2.  In a division with 6 teams–four of whom have a legitimate playoff shot–5-to-11 odds are way too short for anyone, even the mighty Cubs.
• 3). Milwaukee Brewers (6:1).  They lost their two best pitchers in the offseason.  I like the offense, and I like what they’re building in Milwaukee, but they didn’t even win the division last year with Sabathia and Sheets.  Though they have an outside shot, I think it’s probably a lot longer than 6-to-1.
• 2). Cincinnati Reds (7:1).  Trendy “sleeper” pick here and with good reason.  They have some young stars on this team, and they are much more athletic and exciting than a year ago.  However, I have trouble really believing that they have what it takes to win this division…yet.  7-to-1 is not a terrible bet, but it’s not that great either.
• 1). St. Louis Cardinals (4:1).  If the Cubs falter, it’s pretty clear that the Cardinals are going to be there to take their place.  They won 86 games last year without Carpenter and Wainwright for most of the year.  They are both back and allegedly healthy.  Plus, they have the best player to ever live playing first base for them.  Tony LaRussa has won division titles with less, so at 4-to-1 odds, I really like this team.

NL WEST:
Something about the Western divisions in both the NFL and MLB…they are bad.  I guess it has to do with the teams’ budgets, but still, in two sports that are seeing unparalleled parity, for all four divisions labeled “West” in the two sports to be bad is uncanny.  But, that doesn’t harm the intrigue in the NL West race this year.  Will a full year with Manny give the Dodgers what they need to repeat?  Can the D-Backs pitch their way to a division crown?  What about the Baby Giants?

• 5) Colorado Rockies (8:1).  This is a bad team with bad odds.  I don’t see any way the Rockies win this division, even though it’s not a very good division.
• 4). San Diego Padres (15:1).  This is another bad team with bad odds.  15-to-1?  Did anyone in Vegas watch a Padres game last year?
• 3). Arizona Diamondbacks (7:5).  Here’s where it gets tough.  I think the D-Backs are the second-best team in the division and so does Vegas.  But, I also think that the D-Backs are closer to third place than they are to first place, so +140 is not nearly enough to be worth it.
• 2). Los Angeles Dodgers (11:10).  I think the Dodgers are the clear favorites in this division.  With Manny, their lineup might be the best in the National League.  Casey Blake is set to hit EIGHTH.  But, +110 is just not high enough for a team that could implode and lost its best starting pitcher off an 84-win season last year.
• 1). San Francisco Giants (4:1).  I’m not as big on the Giants as many people, but 4-to-1 are pretty nice odds for a young team with phenomenal pitching in a bad division.  I think this is clearly the best future bet on the board in the NL West, though I don’t think they’ll have quite enough to win it.  I just think that +400 would be a nice payout for a team that wouldn’t be a big surprise out west.

AL EAST:
The best division in baseball is going to be very interesting this year.  Can the Rays win it again?  Did the Yankees “buy” enough good players to return to prominence?  Has the youth movement in Baltimore done anything to get fans to come back to the best ballpark in baseball?

• 5). Baltimore Orioles (40:1).  I think anyone that would bet on either the Orioles or the Blue Jays to win this division is either a delusional fan or just has money to burn, especially Baltimore.  I’m pretty comfortable saying that the 2009 AL East championship banner will fly in either New York, Boston, or Tampa.
• 4). Toronto Blue Jays (40:1).  Again, this is bit of a fool’s bet because the Blue Jays will not win this division.  I think this is the worst team in the division, and I think they will finish in last place.  But, if you really want to take a 40-to-1 shot, I suggest you take Toronto and not Baltimore because I think, though the Orioles are better and will probably finish above the Blue Jays, I think that the chance of Baltimore winning this division is, well, zero.  The Blue Jays?  Maybe just a slight bit higher than zero, so they are the better of the two losing propositions.
• 3). New York Yankees (even).  There are three real contenders here, and I do love (baseball-wise) what the Yankees did in the offseason (how can’t you?), but they are the Vegas favorite, and I think that any of the three can win it.  Getting no odds on a team in a three-team race is not good.  But, for the record, I agree with Vegas.  I think that the Bombers are the favorites in this division–very slight favorites.
• 2). Boston Red Sox (7:5).  You get 40% better odds on the Sox than the Yanks.  I think the Yanks are slightly more likely to win the East than the Sox, but I’ll take the odds.
• 1). Tampa Bay Rays (3:1).  Again, this is a three-team race, and I think any of the three can win it.  This is basically the same team that won it last year, except that they added an experienced power bat in Pat Burrell.  I think at 3-to-1, the Rays are clearly the best bet in the East.

AL CENTRAL:
The AL Central is a very interesting division.  All 5 teams have a shot at this title.  Yet, I don’t think any of them would be favored to win any other division in baseball.  The most “talented” teams finished 3rd and 5th last year, and who knows what is going to happen this year?

• 5). Kansas City Royals (6:1).  Funny how I truly believe that anyone can win this division, yet I feel that the team with the highest payoff is also the worst bet.  But, it’s true.  I still think that the Royals are at least a year away, so 6-to-1 is a pretty bad bet.
• 4). Cleveland Indians (8:5).  I like the Indians and think they have a shot, but +160 is pretty bad odds to take on a team with questionable pitching, a cleanup hitter who hit .197 last year in a division where any of five teams can win it.  This is the lowest payout of any team in the division, which I feel makes it a bad bet.
• 3). Detroit Tigers (11:4).  The Tigers are an interesting bet–one which I thought would intrigue me, until I saw their +275–much lower than what I thought it would be.  I still like this bet better than the two previous mentioned ones because they are better than the Royals and are about even with Cleveland, but with a higher payout.
• 2). Minnesota Twins (5:2).  Probably the real “favorite” in this division, as they have a lot of talent and the best manager in the division.  They have some young pitching that should continue to improve.  The questions revolve around the health of the M&M Boys (Mauer & Morneau), but I like this team at +250.
• 1). Chicago White Sox (5:1).  The defending champs in a division that lost a lot of talent around them, and they are have the fourth highest odds to repeat?  I don’t see the Sox repeating, but at a 5-to-1 payout, I like the bet in this completely wide-open division.

AL WEST:
In a the only four-team division that has been dominated, for almost a decade now, by the Anaheim/Los Angeles Angels, we enter 2009 season expecting a similar outcome.

• 4). Seattle Mariners (7:1).  Uh, what?!?  Does anyone realize that they were THIRTY-NINE GAMES BEHIND last year?  Yes, 39!  What have they done to get better?  They lost Raul Ibanez and J.J. Putz and added a centerfielder that is knocking on the door of 40-years old.  I understand that last year was a perfect storm against the Mariners and they have better talent than 101 losses, but 7-to-1 to make up THIRTY-NINE games?!?  No, thanks.
• 3) Oakland A’s (2:1).  It seems like the A’s management had hit reality, in that if you skimp every year, eventually you will stop making the playoffs, especially now that other teams seem to value the same things that pioneer Billy Beane has valued all along.  So, the A’s have made an upgrade offensively, and they have a lot of pitching.  But, I’m not sold that this is a division contender.  And, 2-to-1 is pretty short odds for a team that needs to make up 25 games from a year ago.  It also baffles me that Vegas thinks that the A’s are more likely to win their division than the defending American League champions.
• 2). Los Angeles Angels (1:2).  It takes a lot for me to say that the best future bet in any given division is one that pays half your investment back, but I just think that it would take major injuries to multiple pitchers for this team not to win.  They added Bobby Abreu to a 100-win team.  I have full confidence in this team to win this division, I just don’t think they are 20 times more likely than…
• 1). Texas Rangers (10:1).  I’m not nearly as big on the Rangers as a lot of people.  But, it looks like Vegas agrees with me, as they have they are the biggest longshots to win this division.  And, at 10-to-1, I think it is certainly worth taking a shot.  The Angels do look a little vulnerable with their injured pitching staff, and the Rangers do hit the ball, maybe as well as anyone else in baseball.  If they get career year(s) from a starter or two, who knows?  It’s certainly worth a 10-to-1 shot.