The Ryan Howard Contract

One of our most dedicated “BSBelievers,” has been asking for quite some time now for a post about Mr. Howard, and more specifically, the big guy’s contract.  This post is probably going to make every elitist “Sabermaterician” stop reading this site completely, which will, in and of itself, make every minute I spend on it well worth it. 

(For the record – and this will be a full post one day – I have NO problem whatsoever with progressive, innovative, and creative statistical evaluation.  In fact, that is what I do for a living – though, unfortunately, not with baseball statistics.  What I do have a problem with is the condescending and utter dismissal of anything “traditional.”  Are RBIs “overrated” as a statistical measure by the general public?  Absolutely!  Are they a completely meaningless statistic that are only ackowledged by fans that are either (a) uneducated in the superior world of Sabermetrics or (b) simple fans incapable of comprehending more complicated statistics and just want to “watch the game?”  Absolutely not!  Okay, done with that rant…for now.)

So, back to Ryan Howard and his contract.  As an homage to Waters, the guy who spawned this column, I’ll use actual direct quotes from him as the leadins to the main points of this argument.

“If you ask me, he is worth every penny.  I’ll even be the first in line on Dollar Dog Night to buy 20 million hot dogs.”
One thing that I think all these critics of the big contracts completely miss is that there is a premium (and a significant one, at that) on the best.  Call it an “elite tax” or something like that.  But, the point is that there are all these people ripping contract signings like Howard, Papelbon, Cain, Tulowitzki, Cabrera, Mauer, etc., with the same, tired arguments.  They say things like “looking at their statistical worth, there is no way any of these guys can live up to those deals.”  And, then they go further – even at his best (2006), Ryan Howard only gave the Phillies FIVE wins more than a replacement player (WAR).  So, at $25 million, even the best Ryan Howard would cost the Phils $5 mil/win.”  And, then they go on to rattle all the “cost-effective” players that they could buy for $25 million, add up their WARs and say how ridiculous the contract is.  But, what they don’t realize is that even the most cost-conscious “good” teams are entirely populated with the Ben Zobrists of the world.  Even those Tampa Bay Rays have big-dollar guys like Evan Longoria and James Shields.  And, the only reason that their payroll isn’t $120 million is because all those young pitchers haven’t hit free agency yet.

In summary, it’s pretty simple.  To be an elite team, you need elite players – period.  And, to get elite players, you have to pay prices that may seem exorbitant (and stupid), when you try to compare them, empirically, to the rest of the field.  But, that is the “elite tax.”  Think about it – from an empirical standpoint, is a $2.5 million home really TEN TIMES BETTER than a $250,000 home?  Almost certainly not, but to get an “elite” home, you have to pay the “elite tax.”  The same goes for elite firstbasemen or closers or whatever…

“Chicks dig the long ball, and I dig Ryan Howard.”
So, if you go with me on that first point, the next obvious question is – well, is Ryan Howard “elite?”  And, honestly, that’s a pretty good question.  I hear the arguments against him being elite, and there are some cogent points to be made.  It is true that he has declined in just about every offensive category (except plate discipline) each year since his monster 58-HR season.  But, what I do find laughable is how people are, all of a sudden, talking about this guy like he’s somewhere in the “mediocre” range.  Are you kidding me?  He had 33 HRs and 30 Ds last year in a “down year.”  Say what you will about award voting, but the dude still finished TENTH in the NL MVP voting.  He was, pretty much without question, the best offensive player on a team that won 102 games – and, again, it was a down year for him.  So, to say that this guy isn’t The Best firstbaseman in the league is one thing, but to say that he’s not still an elite player – let’s take a cold look at the stats and not think about the nationally overexposed, ruthlessly overcriticized player.  Let’s stop and think for ourselves on this one, people, instead of lazily going with the prevailing, national opinion or on the SportsCenter highlights of all of his strikeouts.

One more thing on this.  I heard so many people say, “Why did they extend Howard when they did when they could have just waited and seen what else was out there for that price?”  Again, a valid point, at the time, but now with the advantage of hindsight, let’s take a look.  The number one argument I heard for this (including from some of the baseball writers I respect the most) was “Why spend all this money on Ryan Howard, when you can probably get an emerging Joey Votto for half that?”  (At the time, Votto hadn’t really broken out yet…).  Well, by the time Votto was due to hit free agency, what happened?  Well, let’s just say that Joey Votto is now on the books for $25 million/year through…wait for it…2024!  Sorry, the Reds have a team option in 2024, so they may only have to pay him through 2023…6 years after Howard’s expires…at $25m/year.  So, how would the “wait for Votto’s free agency” plan have worked?  Okay, but Votto is probably the best player in the game right now.  That’s true, so then what about Prince Fielder?  He’s a “pudgy” firstbaseman who just signed a contract that pays his $24 million/year through 2020.  (Oh, and unlike Howard, Fielder is NOT slimming down and vastly improving his defense in his offseasons.)  Okay, but Fielder is only 28.  That’s true, but what about Albert Pujols?  Pujols, who is the same age as Howard (with a MUCH scarier injury history), is due to receive $30 million in 2021!

The point is that Ryan Howard is one of the game’s best power hitters.  And, elite power hitters are (a) very expensive and (b) absolutely essential – which is why even teams like the Reds and Tigers (not exactly historically big spenders) are willing to shell out mega-bucks for these guys.  So, to all those people who say that Howard is too big to last, I give you the much larger Fielder, who has 4 more years on his deal.  To those who say that Howard is too old to get that extension, I give you Pujols, who is the same age and has a contract of 4 additional years at a higher salary.  To the ultimately stubborn of you who say that the defensive value (or lack thereof) of first base isn’t worth these massive contracts, I give you Votto, who is due upwards of $25 million/year for the next 14 years!  Even I didn’t defend the deal, at the time, but with each 1B signing that has occurred since, the decision looks less and less rash and may even be bordering on “prudent,” though even I am not quite there yet.

“While I, personally, believe math is much more important than chemistry in education, as well as baseball, you can’t deny how much better this Phillies team is with Howard in the lineup.”
Another great point at which the Saber-elitists would scoff (if they were tormenting themselves by still reading this “traditional” and “simple” piece).  Baseball is a different sport than just about any other when it comes to dealing with “the moment.”  In most other sports, the more you “want to,” the better you will be.  If you are really fired up and impassioned in a football game, you probably boost your chances to go out there and rip someone’s head off.  Same for basketball.  But, in baseball, because of the patience and precision required (and the aggression that is NOT required) a lot of times, the more you “want to,” the harder the sport becomes.  Well, one of the biggest problems that appears to be haunting the 2012 Phillies offense is entwined in this phenomenon.  Without Utley and Howard in the lineup, everyone feels like they need to do more, and therefore, usually do less (Chooch is an obvious exception to this, but I think he is just really good at controlling this emotion).  Hunter Pence is the prime example.  He’s having a great year, by the numbers, but in run-scoring opportunities, he’s been awful.  Same might go for the uncharacteristically testy, Shane Victorino, and even the steady veterans like Polanco or Rollins.  The big guy has been in the middle of this lineup since he was brought up, and this team has done nothing but win since he was brought up.  He’s ready for the pressure.  He’s accustomed to being “the guy” and everyone else is more comfortable with him as “the guy,” as well.  This lineup just works with him in it.  Now, put a price on that…if you can.

In summary, I, for one, enjoy laughing at the laziness of the national media (and some local media) talking about how overpaid Ryan Howard is or how stupid the Phillies were for extending him.  The fact of the matter is that this team is INFINITELY better with The Big Piece in the middle of the lineup.  So, sit on the soapbox all you want and tell me that Ryan Howard’s $20 million dollars could be better spent on TWO Aubrey Huffs or THREE Adam Linds or THREE James Loneys.  I just want the guy back in that lineup.