The beauty of the NFL is that every single game is so incredibly important due to the simple fact that there are only 16 of them. The defending champs were one poorly-thrown Tony Romo pass away from missing the playoffs altogether. And, in this league of the best football players in the world, any little advantage goes a really long way.
With this in mind, we like to do a different kind of preview here at BSB. You will hear all sorts of people with predicted divisional standings, with W-L records for all the teams. The most diligent of those will have the Ws and Ls at least add up to one another, but they are still just looking at a team – maybe the overall schedule – and deciding how good they think they are. But, I believe that there is so much more to actually trying to “preview” the season. But, there are so many other factors to a season – little things like playing a team off their bye or on a short week or West Coast teams at 1:00 or playing getting a team in a possible “trap game” that is sandwiched in between major rivals. Any one of these factors can be the difference between getting a ticket to the crapshoot playoff field and thinking about “what could have been.”
So, here at BSB, we try to do our best to actually analyze the schedule every year. So, without further ado, let’s get it going with Week One. While we will be using the preseason Vegas lines, as a reference, the picks will just be winners. You can make your own judgment as far as ATS picks, if you really feel the need to bet NFL games this far in advance (not judging because, well, I do it…).
Each weekday for the next two weeks, we will be posting previews twice a day (7am and 3pm), so check back then to follow along week-by-week.
Wednesday Night
Dallas (0-0) at N.Y.GIANTS (0-0) – Vegas: Giants -3
The defending champs will get their rings on this night and have all the world watching them at home. I like the Cowboys this year, but I cannot find any reason to pick them in this one. Giants (moderate)
Sunday, Early Afternoon
Indianapolis (0-0) at CHICAGO (0-0) – Vegas: Bears -10
No luck for Andrew’s debut here, as he faces a pretty stout defense and an underrated offense. Bears -10 (easy)
Philadelphia (0-0) at CLEVELAND (0-0) – Vegas: Eagles -8.5
The Eagles dynasty couldn’t get off to a much easier start, as the Browns might be the worst team in the NFL. That being said, to quote one of BSB’s best contributors, Gross, “of all the times to play the Browns on the road, Week One is probably the worst time.” I still don’t see the 2012 Eagles losing to the 2012 Browns anywhere, anytime. Eagles (easy)
New England (0-0) at TENNESSEE (0-0) – Vegas: Patriots -6.5
The Titans are always one of those teams that you never know how they’ll be. They still have QB issues, and the Pats are as high-flying as ever with their fleet of pass-catching tight ends and slot receivers. I do think Chris Johnson will bounce back and the defense is underrated in Tennessee, so it’s not a gimme for the Belichicks, but they should get this W. Patriots (moderate)
Atlanta (0-0) at KANSAS CITY (0-0) – Vegas: Falcons -1
The old adage that so aptly applies to the NFL, “if you’re not getting better, you’re getting worse,” is the perfect summation of where I think these two teams are going this year. The Falcons are standing still with a good, but not great team, while the Chiefs continue to get better. Have the Chiefs caught the Falcons in talent? Maybe not, but Arrowhead is a notoriously tough place to play, and I think the Chiefs may be a real surprise this year after a great offseason and the additions of Eric Barry, Jamaal Charles, and Tony Moeaki back from injury. I like the Chiefs in a mild upset here in Week One. Chiefs (close)
Jacksonville (0-0) at MINNESOTA (0-0) – Vegas: Vikings -4.5
If you are going to start the season without your best player, you might as well start with Jacksonville at home. With the status of Adrian Peterson in question, this is still a tough game, but I don’t know if there is a team in the league that I would take to lose to Jax at home. Vikings (close)
Washington (0-0) at NEW ORLEANS (0-0) – Vegas: Saints -9.5
Is RG3 the real deal? Maybe. Is Drew Brees the real deal? Uh…yes. This one’s an easy pick in the Big Easy. Saints (easy)
BUFFALO (0-0) at N.Y. Jets (0-0) – Vegas: Jets -4.5
If KC isn’t the biggest surprise in the AFC, it just might be the Buffalo Bills. The Jets have a fantastic defense, but the Bills might be right there with them. In fact, I think their front 7 is better than the Jets’. And, the Bills have a much better offensive team than their Week One opponents. The Jets are a 4.5-point favorite, and yet I think I like the Bills here in a nice upset. Bills (close)
St. Louis (0-0) at DETROIT (0-0) – Vegas: Lions -9
I think the Rams are going to be better than people think and the Lions are going to be worse than people think, so the fact that Detroit is a 9-point favorite here is too much. That being said, Detroit did win 8 more game than St. Louis last year and the game is in the Silverdome, but I would be a little careful if I were Coach Schwartz here. Lions (moderate)
Miami (0-0) at HOUSTON (0-0) – Vegas: Texans -7
This one should be the double-digit spread, not just 7, like it is. The Texans are a LOT better than Miami and should pummel them down in Houston. Texans (easy)
Sunday, Late Afternoon
San Francisco (0-0) at GREEN BAY (0-0) – Vegas: Packers -6.5
The Niners, not surprisingly, pretty much brought back their whole 12-win team from a year ago. But, that doesn’t necessarily equate to another 12 wins. And, even if it does, it certainly shouldn’t lead anyone to think that they can now go into Lambeau and beat the best team in the NFC. Packers (moderate)
Seattle (0-0) at ARIZONA (0-0) – Vegas: Cardinals -2
The Seahawks are going to have one of the best unknown defense in the league this year. But, I think their offense is going to struggle (especially without Marshawn Lynch, who will likely be suspended, basically, for being a d-bag…again). At the very least, it should take some time. I’m not all that high on the Cards, but they did look pretty good at the end of last year and have most of their team coming back. Cardinals (close)
Carolina (0-0) at TAMPA BAY (0-0) – Vegas: Panthers -3
Every year people think that teams in the NFL will stink just because they stunk last year. And, every year, a lot of teams that stunk up the joint the prior year, have decent seasons. I like Greg Schiano’s style, and I like all the additions that the Bucs added to their roster. And, by “like,” I just mean that they might not lose 12 games this year. As for the Panthers, I’m not so sure I agree with Ryan Khalil on his promise of a Super Bowl in Carolina (though I love the confidence). In fact, I think they are probably more likely to lose 10 games again then even make the playoffs. I’ll take the Bucs, in an upset, at home in Week One. Bucs (close)
Sunday Night
PITTSBURGH (0-0) at Denver (0-0) – Vegas: Broncos -2
The scene of the crime from a year ago – the shocking playoff upset by the Broncos over the Steelers. Now, the Steelers get an immediate shot at redemption. But, that will most certainly not be the story. The story is some guy wearing #18 in orange. The Peyton Manning Era begins. And, looking at the schedule, he better get his guys ready QUICKLY because they were done no favors early on. And, I think a team like the Steelers will use the Manning debut as as much motivation as Manning’s teammates will. I like the Steelers in an upset on the road. Steelers (close)
Monday Night
Cincinnati (0-0) at BALTIMORE (0-0) – Vegas: Ravens -6.5
I really like the Bengals this year. But, going into Baltimore on a Monday night in Week One? That’s a tall order for anyone, let alone a team led by a bunch of second-year players. This game is probably going to be closer than Ravens fans would like, but they should come away with a big W to start the season. Ravens (moderate)
SAN DIEGO (0-0) at Oakland (0-0) – Vegas: Pick ’em
The Raiders stink…I’m still unsure as to how I feel about the Chargers, but I know they should beat the Raiders on the road on Monday night. And, I also know that if the line remains a “pick ’em,” I’m gonna jump all over it. Chargers (moderate)
Standings After Week One
NFC EAST:
The Giants made the biggest step here, picking up a big divisional win over Dallas
1-0 Giants
1-0 Eagles
0-1 Cowboys
0-1 Redskins
NFC NORTH:
This should be a really good division, but it’s still a surprise for any division to go 4-0
1-0 Bears
1-0 Lions
1-0 Packers
1-0 Vikings
NFC SOUTH:
Without even having to beat them head-to-head, the Saints pick up a quick game on the Falcons, though it was an AFC loss for Atlanta
1-0 Bucs
1-0 Saints
0-1 Falcons
0-1 Panthers
NFC WEST:
This should be the Niners’ division to lose, but they spotted Arizona a game (and a divisional win, at that)
1-0 Cardinals
0-1 49ers
0-1 Rams
0-1 Seahawks
AFC EAST:
A huge win for the Bills on the road at the Jets could come back to be enormous come playoff scenario time
1-0 Bills
1-0 Patriots
0-1 Dolphins
0-1 Jets
AFC NORTH:
Another year in the AFC North, another year with Baltimore and Pittsburgh on top
1-0 Ravens
1-0 Steelers
0-1 Bengals
0-1 Browns
AFC SOUTH:
This might be the most boring divisional race in history…then again, that’s what we said about the Chargers in the AFC West last year
1-0 Texans
0-1 Colts
0-1 Jaguars
0-1 Titans
AFC WEST:
The Chiefs picked up a nice win over Atlanta, while the Broncos couldn’t beat Pittsburgh at home – those two games could go a long way as this division plays out
1-0 Chargers
1-0 Chiefs
0-1 Broncos
0-1 Raiders
