NFL Week-by-Week Preview: Week Seventeen

And, here it is – the final day of the NFL regular season.  With two days left in 2012, we have got ourselves a full slate of nothing but intra-division games.  Sit back and enjoy!  Unfortunately, Vegas doesn’t come out with Week 17 lines because of the ridiculousness with which Week 17 is now treated by the teams with a spot locked up.  Later today, at 3:00, we will run through our playoff predictions (final seedings at bottom of this post).

Sunday, Early Afternoon

Tampa Bay (5-10) at ATLANTA (10-5)
The Falcons get the extra day of rest from playing on Saturday last week, and they get the Bucs at home.  This is a little scary for them, but they shouldn’t really have any problems if this game means anything to them.  Falcons (moderate)

N.Y. Jets (8-7) at BUFFALO (8-7)
A cold, blustery day in Buffalo is no fun for anyone.  The Jets may have saved their season with a Monday Night win over San Diego last week, but it most likely ends here.  Bills (moderate)

Baltimore (10-5) at CINCINNATI (9-6)
Who is going to want it more?  This might the a swan song for Ed Reed and possibly even Ray Lewis.  They have one last surge left in them.  Ravens (close)

Chicago (11-4) at DETROIT (9-6)
With the season on the line, I think the Lions, especially with that extra day’s rest, can find that last gear to win a big one…but will it be enough to get them in?  Lions (close)

Jacksonville (4-11) at TENNESSEE (7-8)
The Titans are the better team and are at home.  Remember when the Jags were 4-5?  Titans (moderate)

Houston (10-5) at INDIANAPOLIS (2-13)
Pride is big in professional sports, but it probably won’t be enough for Andrew Luck and company, as they finish a tough rookie year – with more bright spots to come.  Texans (moderate)

Green Bay (13-2) at MINNESOTA (4-11)
There is a good chance that the Pack won’t need this game (as is the scenario here), but remember what happened when Rodgers didn’t play in Week 17 last year?  Matt Flynn threw for like 8,000 yards and 57 touchdowns.  Now, he’s run off to be the highest-paid backup QB in the league, but remember what also happened last year?  The Packers lost their first playoff game two weeks later, so they may not make the same decision again this year.  Packers (close)

Miami (8-7) at NEW ENGLAND (13-2)
I still don’t know how I got Miami to 8 wins, but you can be sure I didn’t even consider giving them #9 here, whether the Pats need this game or not.  Patriots (easy)

Carolina (5-10) at NEW ORLEANS (10-5)
The natives in Carolina won’t be happy if the Panthers actually lose more games than they did last year, but I can’t see them winning in New Orleans here, so that’s what I’m going with.  Saints (moderate)

Philadelphia (11-4) at N.Y. GIANTS (7-8)
Last game of the year.  If this matters, it’s going to be an all-out WAR.  And, even if it doesn’t, these teams flat-out don’t like each other.  Gimme the home team here.  Giants (close)

Cleveland (1-14) at PITTSBURGH (11-4)
Nice way for the Steelers to end the season, especially if these races are close.  Steelers (easy)

Dallas (8-7) at WASHINGTON (5-10)
The RG3 Era: Year One comes to a close here in the Landover, as I think the ‘Boys, whether they need the game or not, should be able to beat this ‘Skins team.  Cowboys (close)

Sunday, Late Afternoon

Oakland (3-12) at SAN DIEGO (8-7)
A short week for the Chargers and a really bad track record in games they should win, but I can’t see them dropping this on when it really matters.  Chargers (moderate)

Arizona (4-11) at SAN FRANCISCO (10-5)
The Niners may be fighting for positioning here and should have no trouble with a bad Cardinals team.  49ers (easy)

St. Louis (4-11) at SEATTLE (6-9)
What this whole exercise tells me about the Seahawks is:  if they can get through the first 11 games of their schedule around .500 (I had them 3-8), then they have a real shot because the back end is pretty soft.  Seahawks (easy)

Kansas City (8-7) at DENVER (8-7)
This is a HUGE game and just might be that flexed Sunday Night game.  If so, I really like the Broncos, but if not, I still like them at home to get a gigantic win.  Either way, if this matters, it will be must-see TV.  Broncos (close)

Final Regular Season Standings

NFC EAST:
The Eagles take another NFC East crown, while the season ends in utter disappointment for all three of the other teams in this division
11-5 Eagles
9-7 Cowboys
8-8 Giants
5-11 Redskins

NFC NORTH:
Another great year in Green Bay, a bounceback year in Chicago, and another 10-win season in Detroit looks good for, maybe, the best division in the game
14-2 Packers
11-5 Bears
10-6 Lions
4-12 Vikings

NFC SOUTH:
A couple of 11-win teams and a couple of 11-loss teams in the South
11-5 Falcons
11-5 Saints
5-11 Panthers
5-11 Bucs

NFC WEST:
The 3-8 start just crippled the Seahawks and allowed San Fran to waltz to a second straight division title
11-5 49ers
7-9 Seahawks
4-12 Cardinals
4-12 Rams

AFC EAST:
A fantastic 8-8 for the Dolphins, a catastrophic 8-8 for the Jets; the Bills are over .500, but they’re all chasing the Pats…as usual
14-2 Patriots
9-7 Bills
8-8 Dolphins
8-8 Jets

AFC NORTH:
The Bengals have a brutally tough back end of the schedule, and it showed, as the two stalwarts of this division rise again
12-4 Steelers
11-5 Ravens
9-7 Bengals
1-15 Browns

AFC SOUTH:
Two of the three or four worst teams in the league are in the same division, and the Texans and Titans still only win 19 games combined
11-5 Texans
8-8 Titans
4-12 Jaguars
2-14 Colts

AFC WEST:
A dead-heat with the Broncos and Chargers, with the Chiefs a game back – great race with mediocre teams
9-7 Broncos
9-7 Chargers
8-8 Chiefs
3-13 Raiders

Final NFC Playoff Seedings

#1 – Green Bay Packers
#2 – San Francisco 49ers
#3 – Atlanta Falcons
#4 – Philadelphia Eagles
#5 – New Orleans Saints
#6 – Chicago Bears

JUST MISSED: Detroit Lions

Tiebreakers:
-ATL wins NFC South tiebreaker over NO via conference record
-PHI loses seeding tiebreaker to ATL and SF via conference record
-SF wins seeding tiebreaker over ATL via record vs. common opponents
-NO wins seeding tiebreaker over CHI via record vs. common opponents

Final AFC Playoff Seedings

#1 – New England Patriots
#2 – Pittsburgh Steelers
#3 – Houston Texans
#4 – Denver Broncos
#5 – Baltimore Ravens
#6 – Buffalo Bills

JUST MISSED: San Diego Chargers, Cincinnati Bengals, Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, Tennessee Titans

Tiebreakers:
-DEN wins AFC West tiebreaker over SD via head-to-head sweep
-BUF win wild card tiebreaker over SD and CIN via conference record

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