Forgotten 40: The Eye of the Storm

Most college campuses across the country are either gearing up for Finals Week or have already completed it and are emptying out for the mid-semester break.  That means that the non-conference whirlwind of games has slowed to a crawl, as teams eye up the heavy conference slate that awaits them around the turn of the New Year.

As for the Forgotten 40, there were only 4 teams that graduated from our list since the last edition, two weeks ago.

The Graduates

• Virginia Tech (9 – previous F40 ranking)
• Boise State (7)
• Wyoming (21)
• LSU (27)

The unbeaten Tigers of LSU got a single vote in this week’s AP Poll, while the similarly unbeaten Wyoming Cowboys got several after taking care of Colorado.  Boise State, who was #7 on our list did get recognition after beating up on Creighton, and the Va Tech Hokies are the biggest surprise in the ACC this year, suffering their first loss this weekend, by 1 point at West Virginia.

The Forgotten Forty

1. Iowa (24) – The Hawkeyes have been on this list in every installment, but never cracked the Top 10.  Well, it is time.  This team is officially “very good.”  Aaron White is as underrated a player as you will find, and once freshman Adam Woodbury figures it out, they should be legitimately in the tournament discussion.
2. Middle Tennessee State (11) – A 20-point beatdown of UAB and then a really big win over Ole Miss should have gotten the Blue Raiders some national attention, but we all know that a Sun Belt team needs to move mountains to get noticed.
3. Ole Miss (2) – To the college hoops layman, a loss to the aforementioned Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders might be a real negative on the Ole Miss resume, but a road loss to a team that is very, very good doesn’t hurt you much in the F40.  If you have not yet heard the names Murphy Holloway or Marshall Henderson, just wait – you will.
4. Belmont (3) – When you have a guard averaging over 19 ppg at almost 60% shooting (Ian Clark), you know you have a high-tempo, prolific offense, but when you have three others in double-figure scoring (Kerron Johnson -14, Trevor Noack-12, Blake Jenkins-10), you have something special.
5. Iowa State (4) – Utah transfer Will Clyburn has been as good as advertised for the Cyclones this year, and, a road loss to in-state rival Iowa notwithstanding, Mayor Hoiberg has them rolling again with 21- and 11-point wins, respectively, over fellow F40 members BYU and Florida Gulf Coast to add to the ledger since the last time we checked in.
6. Illinois State (1) – The reigning top dog on our list suffered through a surprisingly impressive 3-game losing streak.  After a 3-point OT loss to Northwestern, the Redbirds gave Louisville everything they could handle in a 3-point loss, before returning home for a letdown 14-point loss to undefeated Wyoming.  They rebounded with a 22-point shellacking of Western Michigan.  It is no surprise that Jackie Carmichael is putting up huge numbers, but Tyler Brown’s are off the charts so far this year (19 ppg, 4 rpg, 2 apg, 1 spg, 50% FG, 83% FT, 41% 3pt).
7. Virginia (5) – If you like high-flying offensive hoops, you have probably never liked Tony Bennett.  But, if you want your team to win, you probably want him hired.  Bennett is doing it again – in ugly fashion – at UVA, as the Cavs continue to roll on, adding relatively easy wins over MVSU, Green Bay, and the Tennessee Vols to their record.
8. Illinois-Chicago (-) – It is finally time to take notice of what’s going on at UIC.  Picked last in the Horizon, the quick start was not expected to continue, but the Flames just will not stop winning.  They have now won 7 in a row, including wins at Northwestern and home against a good Colorado St. team.  They sit in first-place in the Horizon, at 8-1, with their only loss coming by 7 points to an elite New Mexico team.
9. Oregon State (12) – A 3-point loss to Alabama and a 6-point loss to Kansas are the only blemishes on the Beavers record this year.  Unfortunately, they have not yet picked up any marquee wins either, so the jury is still out – and will remain out because the rest of the non-conference schedule is barren.  But, the Pac-12 should be careful to underestimate the POTUS’s brother-in-law this year.
10. Arkansas (-) – The F40’s roller-coaster team so far has got to be these Hogs.  #1 on the first list, they then fell to #20 and then off completely before returning this week at #10.  BJ Young and Marshawn Powell are among the best 1-2 combos in the country, and, while the 40 minutes of hell is only 4-4 this year, their losses are all close and all to good teams (Michigan, Syracuse, Wisconsin, Arizona St.).  Their good wins were non-existant until they beat Oklahoma this week, making them a viable candidate to return to the Top 10 of this list.
11. George Mason (6) – This weekend might have been the best weekend thus far in the college hoops season.  Not because of the matchups, necessarily, but because of the great games.  And, the best game of the weekend was Northern Iowa at George Mason.  If there is a heaven – mine would probably have these two teams lining up and playing over and over again for eternity.  While Mason lost in OT, they certainly acquitted themselves nicely and look like the class of a weak CAA this year.
12. Charlotte (22) – You can only play the teams on your schedule, and that is what the 49ers have done – and won…every one of them, including an impressive road win at Davidson.  In his third year on the job, it looks like Alan Major may be way ahead of schedule on the total rebuild in Charlotte. 
13. BYU (8) – The Cougars got whipped at Iowa State a couple weeks back, but rebounded to beat Utah this weekend.  #12 may still be a bit high for them here, but I really like what Tyler Haws is giving them after his 2-year mission in the Phillippines, and they do still have Brandon Davies and Matt Carlino, so I am still a believer that there is enough talent for Dave Rose to put them in the tournament discussion yet again.
14. Oklahoma (16) – The rebuild for the one and only Lon Kruger is coming along nicely in Norman.  It remains to be seen if the Sooners are viable Big XII contenders, but there is no doubt they are heading in the right direction.
15. Dayton (-) – We all know how tough the Flyers are in their building, but when they went to Alabama last week and beat the Crimson Tide, it opened some eyes.  This Flyers team might be a lot better than anyone anticipated, and it is time they made their F40 debut.
16. Clemson (15) – A home loss to Arizona is not head-scratching, but it is a missed opportunity for Brad Brownell’s team to assert itself.  The Tigers looked good against one of the nation’s best, but did not have the horses down the stretch.  That might be a trend of this Clemson season, but we will wait a little before dropping them here.
17. Akron (14) – Well, a loss at Creighton is not head-scratching…but, it would have been nice if the Zips made it a little more competitive.  I still believe that Akron has enough on the roster to seriously challenge Ohio in the MAC, but their non-conference has been underwhelming.
18. Washington State (-) – I am not sure why I am so surprised that a team with Brock Motum is playing so well.  Motum, one of the best pure scorers in the nation, is almost single-handedly keeping this Cougar team relevant.
19. Canisius (-) – Canisius won 5 games last year.  So, naturally, they fired their coach and hired someone else – someone coming off a whole SEVEN-win season of his own.  And, you know what?  It was an excellent hire.  Jim Baron is a great coach, who, somehow, fell on really hard times at Rhode Island.  So, when the Golden Griffins hired him to run their program, they brought in experience, wisdom, and, oh by the way, a dead-eye senior shooting guard, as Jim brought his son, Billy, with him.  Billy Baron is averaging 18 ppg for Canisius.  Teamed with another 18-ppg scorer, Harold Washington and last year’s starter Alshwan Hayes off the bench, Canisius may all of a sudden have the best backcourt in the MAAC.  After a decent non-conference, including a win over Coach Baron’s alma mater, St. Bonaventure, the Golden Griffins have already started 2-0 in the MAAC.  And, it is not your everyday 2-0, as they were both on the road against decent teams in Fairfield and Marist.  All of a sudden, it is not crazy to think that a team that went 1-17 in the conference play last year and was picked dead-last in the preseason could actually win a good MAAC this year.
20. North Dakota State (34) – Nate Who?  The presumed best player in the Summit League, Nate Wolters of South Dakota State, might have to look north at another do-everything guy on a Dakota State team.  NDSU’s Evan Braun is averaging 15.9 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 3.5 apg, 1.6 spg, and even 0.5 bpg on – dare I say it – the best team in the Summit League.  Sorry, Jackrabbit fans, but you guys have suddenly lost the “favorite” title.
21. Richmond (19) – Since the last time we checked in on the Spiders, they have beaten 3 CAA teams and an ACC team.  Sounds good (and it is), but it was W&M in double-OT, JMU in OT, a bad ODU team, and a non-ACC caliber Wake Forest team.  Still, Richmond sits at 8-2 and should be in the A-10 mix.
22. LaSalle (-) – As if the A-10 mix wasn’t crowded enough, enter the Explorers, too.  LaSalle has won 5 straight, including an OT win over Villanova and road wins over Rider and Northeastern.  A sneaky team in the 16-team A-10, the Explorers get their first F40 mention, thanks to a backcourt of Tyreek Duren and Ramon Galloway, who are averaging over 34 points per game between the two of them.
23. Pacific (-) – Another team making its debut on this list is Pacific.  The next in line for “Big West Flavor of the Month,” the Tigers have beaten Nevada and San Francisco in their last two games, possibly legitimizing earlier wins over St. Mary’s and Xavier.  The Big West is going to be fascinating this year, with no clear favorite whatsoever and as many as 8 truly legitimate contenders.
24. Utah State (32) – A near tragedy at a Utah State practice last week cancelled their game with BYU, which would have showed a lot about who the Aggies are.  But, as of now, they look like the WAC favorite.
25. Robert Morris (-) – The F40 welcomes back a long-lost friend, Mr. Robert Morris.  The Colonials, who were #21 on the inaugural list, started the season terribly, but three straight relatively impressive wins (Ohio, @Campbell, @Hampton) have brought them back to us and rekindled their title as NEC favorites.
26. Texas A&M (-) – Even in their debut spot at #25, I still may be underselling the Aggies, as their non-conference slate has not been terrible and they currently sit at 7-1, led by the senior duo of Elston and Ray Turner.  A recent win over Stephen F. Austin may not look impressive on paper, but…
27. South Dakota State (20) – The Jackrabbits keep falling on this list, though they do remain as one of just 11 teams who have been in all four F40s.  It is not exactly the 24-point loss at Minnesota that has theatened to drop them from these rankings, it is more the unimpressive home wins over bad teams like North Dakota and CS-Bakersfield.  Granted, the loss to Minnesota and the 6-point win over Bakersfield were without Mr. Wolters, so I did not want to unfairly hold that against them.
28. Stephen F. Austin (28) – The Lumberjacks debuted on the last installment, lost their undefeated status, but still moved up, as it was a decent road performance against the aforementioned Aggies of Texas A&M.
29. Florida Gulf Coast (30) – This team may be on this list every time for the rest of the year because they will never start receiving any Top 25 votes, but they are a very, very good team.  Their 15-point win over fellow mid-major stud, Loyola (Md), is just another example of how solid this team is.  They even looked competitive this year on the road at Duke, VCU, St. John’s, and Iowa State.
30. Stonybrook (35) – The America East should be a very interesting 3-team race this year.  Defending champ, Stonybrook, still probably has the inside track, but it is going to be interesting all year between them, Vermont, and…
31. Albany (-) – The Great Danes non-conference performance has really added intrigue to the A-East.  A terrific senior backcourt of Mike Black and Jacob Iat’i have Albany in the midst of a 5-game winning streak and a long-overdue appearance in the F40.
32. SMU (40) – A win over Utah and a 26-point beatdown on the road at Hofstra has Larry Brown’s team starting to turn heads.  There is very little talent on this team, but they seem to be buying into what their Hall of Fame coach is selling.
33. Western Kentucky (-) – We all thought that Middle Tennessee State would probably have one strong challenger to the Sun Belt title, but it was supposed to be North Texas.  However, it is looking more and more like it will be the Hilltoppers of Western Kentucky.  They are coming off a 20-point throttling of IUPUI, but they enter a killer 3-game stretch to close out the non-conference season with games at Murray State, at VCU, and on a neutral court against Louisville.  1-2 would be a monumental success.
34. Massachusetts (-) – Chaz Williams is listed at 5’9″, but I think 5’7″ would still be generous.  And, yet, he is still averaging 15.7 ppg, 6.6 apg, and an AMAZING 5.1 rpg.  He is Shawntay Rodgers reincarnated, and he also was an honorable mention on Doogan’s list of the nation’s best point guards.  The Minutemen have still not put forth the results they had been hoping for, but there is no question that they have the potential to be yet another player in that crazy, crazy A-10.
35. Weber State (-) – Thoughts of taking a step back with the departure of lottery pick (and early front-runner for NBA Rookie of the Year), Damian Lillard, have caused people to sleep on this Weber State team.  But, they make their debut in the F40 this week, which corresponds to the departure of Big Sky rival Montana from the list.  Yes, the official “favorite” in the Big Sky may be changing hands as we speak.
36. New Mexico State (-) – The suddenly surging WAC puts NMSU in an interesting situation.  The preseason favorite may not have it nearly as easy as they anticipated.  But, the Aggies are still doing their part, with wins over Southern Miss and South Alabama over the past week giving credence to the preseason expectations placed upon Marvin Menzies’ team.
37. La Tech (18) – One guy who could stand in the way of NMSU’s WAC title could be a 6’3″ beanpole named Raheem Appleby.  Completely overlooked out of high school (most likely because, well, he weighed 139 pounds), Appelby finally got an offer from La Tech and played with a chip on his shoulder, winning the WAC’s Freshman of the Year award on the back of his 14 ppg and 2.4 rpg season.  Adding 20 pounds in the offseason, Appleby has bulked up his performance, as well, currently averaging 19.2 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 1.5 apg, 1.1 spg, and 0.6 bpg.  With junior running partner, Cordarius Johnson, the Bulldogs have flown out of the gates to an 8-2 start.  A recent loss to Northwestern State has dropped them on this list, but that is a tough place to play, and NW State was strongly considered for this list, as well.
38. Southern Miss (23) – Three straight losses usually would take you off this list, but the losses were all close, all on the road, and all against very solid teams – New Mexico State, Arizona, and La Tech.  Their 8-point loss at Arizona, in particular, is keeping them on this list, but we will see how it all shapes up from here.
39. Morehead State (-) – Talk about a busy substitution pattern – Morehead State has 12 players averaging at least 11.5 minutes per game this year, and all 15 players on their roster average at least 5.0.  And, it is working, as the Eagles have already beaten Long Island, Lafayette, Norfolk St., and Indiana St.  They even played Kentucky close at Rupp.
40. Eastern Kentucky (-) – Another OVC team making their F40 debut is Eastern Kentucky.  With every game that goes by, it gets harder and harder to dismiss this EKU team, regardless of what you might think about their non-conference schedule or level of talent.  The fact is this team is 9-0.  Yes, it started with a slew of home games against lower competition, but recently they have gone on the road to beat N.C. Central and Appalachian St.  And, their home wins were getting more impressive, including a 24-point win over Norfolk St. and a 33-point win over Delaware St.  While I may still be a “doubter,” per se, it is getting harder and harder to ignore this team.  Then again, things will get clearer rather shortly, as their last 4 non-conf games are on the road, including trips to Illinois and West Virginia.

The Dropouts

• St. John’s (10)
• Purdue (13)
• Vermont (17)
• College of Charleston (25)
• Kent State (26)
• Harvard (29)
• Loyola (MD) (31)
• East Carolina (33)
• Indiana State (36)
• TX-Arlington (37)
• San Francisco (38)
• Gardner-Webb (39)

While most teams here actually played their way off the list – St. John’s, Purdue, Vermont, Kent State, Loyola, Indiana State, San Francisco – others were just victims of circumstance and a crowded F40 this week.  As more and more teams play their way off the list either by winning and getting noticed or losing, there will be more and more spots available for some of the deserving teams that have even been overlooked by a list designed to give attention to overlooked teams.