With the conference season right around the corner, it is time to take a look at how these conference races are going to shape up.
And, it is also time to check in on a new BSB project we have debuted this year. BSB’s main college basketball contributors – Doogan, Gross, and Bry – have roped in a fellow hoops junkie, Ryan Doc, to participate in our first ever CBB Team Draft. Sparing the details for a future post, essentially what we did is the four of us drafted all 344 D-I teams (leaving out the two independents – CS-Bakersfield and New Orleans – and the late entry to D-I, Northern Kentucky) in typical ladder style. The final scores will be decided by where each team finishes in their conference, which is why you see teams like Savannah State and Delaware State picked ahead of teams like Duke and Michigan State.
In this post, I will try and briefly run down the races in the eight highest-rated conferences with a eye towards our CBB Team Draft and how it looks to shape up. Look for Parts Two through Four to complete the preview.
(Conferences listed in power ranking, based upon the league’s average KenPom ranking)
Big East
Overall
Amidst all this realignment and disbandment craze, the Big East continues to churn out some of the best basketball in the nation. Personally, I think the Big Ten is actually a far better conference, but they are brought down by Nebraska and Penn State, while the Big East is bolstered by all fifteen teams being in the top 100, including three in the top 6. This should be a great year at the top of the Big East, as teams Syracuse, Louisville, Pitt, Notre Dame, Cincy, and G’town all look for real.
CBB Team Draft
RDoc went heavy on the Big East, as he took the first 5 BE teams off the board, finishing with 8 teams in this league, so he figures to get the 150-point prize for winning this league, though Bry’s only BE team, Pitt, might be a surprise.
- Savvy Picks – Bry’s nabbing of Pitt at #93 (the 6th BE team off the board) looks mighty good right now, as the Panthers are 10-1 and might have a chance to steal a big number from this conference. Providence has won 6 in a row and making a push up the standings, which looks for Doogan, who took them at #256. Of those first five that RDoc took, it looks like he’s getting the best value out of his 4th and 5th selections of Cincinnati (#39) and Georgetown (#74).
- Shaky Picks – This whole conference looks good, so it’s hard to say any pick was a “bad” pick, but RDoc’s picks of S.Florida (#210) and St. John’s (#234) look like they may have been reaches.
- Most Intriguing Battle – Marquette (Doogan – #120) and UConn (Gross – #126) were picked just 6 picks apart and each have a wide range of possible finishes.
Picks
- Louisville – RDoc, #2
- Syracuse – RDoc, #10
- Notre Dame – RDoc, #31
- Cincinnati – RDoc, #39
- Georgetown – RDoc, #74
- Pittsburgh – Bry, #93
- Marquette – Doogan, #120
- UConn – Gross, #126
- South Florida – RDoc, #210
- St. John’s – RDoc, #234
- Providence – Doogan, #256
- Villanova – Doogan, #281
- Seton Hall – Gross, #299
- Rutgers – RDoc, #306
- DePaul – Gross, #342
Big Ten
Overall
Regardless of any power rankings or whatnot, there is not anything that can convince me right now that this is not the best conference in the nation. Particularly with the emergence of 12-0 Illinois and a really solid Iowa team. Granted, Wisconsin, Northwestern, and to some extent, Michigan State have disappointed so far, but do we doubt Bo Ryan or Tom Izzo? I sure don’t.
CBB Team Draft
This conference is a war between Doogan and Gross, as they have 5 teams apiece in this brutal conference. RDoc is sitting out the B10 this year, while Bry took the 8th and 10th B10 teams off the board.
- Savvy Picks – Doogan took Minnesota at #160, as the 6th B10 team off the board, and the Gophers look like a top-10 team nationally. Bry made nice mid-conf pick, taking Illinois at #212, as the 8th B10 team off the board. While they are an impressive 12-0, it should be interesting to see if the undervalued Illini can withstand the B10 schedule. Also, Michigan looks like they might be the best team in the country, so for Gross to nab them at #54 is nice.
- Shaky Picks – Again, this whole conference is really good, so it is hard to find a “bad” pick, but Doogan may have reached on Northwestern at #216 and possibly even Michigan State at #33, as the 2nd B10 team picked. Gross taking Wisconsin at #107 looks like it could be a reach, but it wasn’t even a top-100 pick, and they still have Bo Ryan.
- Most Intriguing Battle – Iowa, Illinois, and Northwestern were all picked within 5 picks of each other (#211, 212, 216, respectively), so it should be interesting to see where they end up.
Picks
- Indiana – Doogan, #16
- Michigan State – Doogan, #33
- Michigan – Gross, $54
- Ohio State – Gross, #59
- Wisconsin – Gross, #107
- Minnesota – Doogan, #160
- Iowa – Gross, #211
- Illinois – Bry, #212
- Northwestern – Doogan, #216
- Purdue – Bry, #269
- Nebraska – Doogan, #305
- Penn State – Gross, #339
ACC
Overall
It was supposed to be the year of the Wolfpack, but, instead, it looks like just another year of the Blue Devil. The Dukies look like far and away the best team in this conference, especially with UNC struggling so mightily. Va Tech was a huge surprise, but have faltered lately, while Maryland just keeps on rolling. Is it possible that the Terps are the second-best team in this conference? Yes, very possible.
CBB Team Draft
Gross has Duke, UNC, and Maryland, so he’s in good shape here. RDoc has a fleet of 5 solid contenders. Doogan has one team, but it is Miami – a solid contender. Bry is a non-factor, as his only ACC team was his very last pick of the draft.
- Savvy Picks – The two most promising picks here both could have been seen as reaches at the time of selection, but Gross with Maryland at #86 and Doogan with Miami at #88 look like really smart selections right now. RDoc also may have a steal with Virginia at #202. While, knowing what we know now, it might not look so impressive, Gross does deserve a lot of credit for making Duke the first ACC team off the board – ahead of N.C. State, who was just about everyone’s pick to win the league. Virginia Tech looked like a steal for Gross at #219 a week ago, but a lot has changed in a week.
- Shaky Picks – The group did pretty well analyzing the ACC finishes here, as most of the draft looks like it is going to form. RDoc taking N.C. State (#23) and Gross taking UNC (#35) so high might come back to haunt them as there may have been better options in other conference for picks so early. Another questionable pick might turn out to be Florida State at #122 for RDoc, as the Seminoles have not lived up to expectations.
- Most Intriguing Battle – There are a lot of intriguing battles here, as there are a lot of team pairs picked closely together – the aforementioned Duke-N.C.State battle should be interesting, as they were picked back-to-back (#22 and 23). Maryland and Miami were two picks apart (#86 and 88), and while not incredibly close to each other, the battle to avoid last-place in this conference between Gross’s Wake Forest (#318) and Bry’s Boston College (#341) could have major point implications.
Picks
- Duke – Gross, #22
- N.C. State – RDoc, #23
- North Carolina – Gross, #35
- Maryland – Gross, #86
- Miami – Doogan, #88
- Florida State – RDoc, #122
- Virginia – RDoc, #202
- Virginia Tech – Gross, #219
- Clemson – RDoc, #255
- Georgia Tech – RDoc, #266
- Wake Forest – Gross, #318
- Boston College – Bry, #341
Mountain West
Overall
If you are surprised that the top 6 conferences are not the “Power-6,” then you are not paying attention. I will forgive you, though, if you are surprised at just how high the Mountain West is ranked this year. A perennially potent league is having one of its best seasons ever. The league is 71-18 in the non-conference, including four teams at 9-1 or better. The league has beaten it’s Pac-12 “big sisters” Colorado, UCLA, and USC and UW twice. There are also conference wins over Iowa State, UConn, George Mason, Illinois State, and Creighton – all either on neutral courts or true road venues. There is not a single cupcake in this league, and the top three are as good as any conference’s top 3, except maybe the Big East and Big Ten.
CBB Team Draft
Not surprising in any way is the fact that Bry is all over the MWC, having taken 5 of the 9 teams in this league. Doogan and RDoc each have two, and Gross is sitting this one out.
- Savvy Picks – While Bry has some nice-looking picks among his FIVE in this league (Boise State at #229, Colorado State at #157), RDoc’s pick of Wyoming at #250 is in the conversation for best pick of the entire draft, as things stand right now. The Cowboys are 10-0 and looking like a legitimate threat to finish in the top half, if not crack the Big Three. That is a hell of a pick.
- Shaky Picks – While RDoc had clearly the best pick of the league, he probably also has the worst – as things stand now – with Nevada at #183. The funny thing is that if he just switched those two picks, he would still look savvy, so just taking the total package of Wyoming and Nevada at #183 and #250, it was a nice haul. When you pick a team last in a conference, it is a little optimistic to think that they might give you good value, but Fresno State is clearly the worst team in the M-West right now, so Bry probably didn’t need to use pick #308 to take a last-place team, even if he does love this league a little too much.
- Most Intriguing Battle – It is hard to look at battles here, since Bry has more than half of the league, but it should be real interesting to see where his picks of Colorado State (#157) and Boise State (#229) fall among Doogan’s Air Force (#249) and RDoc’s Wyoming (#250), who were picked later.
Picks
- UNLV – Doogan, #49
- San Diego State – Bry, #76
- New Mexico – Bry, #92
- Colorado State – Bry, #157
- Nevada – RDoc, #183
- Boise State – Bry, #229
- Air Force – Doogan, #249
- Wyoming – RDoc, #250
- Fresno State – Bry, #308
Pac-12
Overall
The Pac-12 is still trying to rebuild its tainted reputation after two of the worst seasons in major conference history. And, the disintegration of UCLA is not helping. What is helping, however, is that Sean Miller seems to have the rebuilding process at Arizona way ahead of schedule, and the ‘Cats look like a clear Top-10 team in the nation – which, as it looks now – should be enough to run away and hide with the Pac-12 title.
CBB Team Draft
There have definitely been some interesting and surprising happenings in the non-conference for the Pac-12, which has turned this draft upside down. Bry has 5 Pac-12 teams, with a couple nice picks making up for his blunder at the top. Gross has 3 teams here, including the runaway favorite, UA. Doogan and RDoc each have 2 teams, with Doogan’s having much more potential to bring some points than RDoc’s mid- and late-round picks.
- Savvy Picks – Doogan grabbing Oregon at #177 might be one of the most promising picks of the entire draft, as things look now. While it is no big stretch to think that the first team off the board is the favorite, the rise of Arizona and the demise of UCLA makes Gross taking Arizona at #11 look really nice right about now.
- Shaky Picks – One of the shakier picks of the entire draft was Gross reaching for USC at #91. That being said, they have been better as of late, so it may not be quite the disaster it appeared a couple of weeks ago. RDoc’s #215 pick of Washington looks pretty shaky, as well, but the Huskies have made a habit out of going through terrible non-conference seasons and turning it on in conference play.
- Most Intriguing Battle – Bry took California at #100 and Colorado at #132, and the way it looks, those two teams could engage in an interesting two-on-two battle against a pair of Doogan picks – Stanford (#80) and Oregon (#177) for some of those upper-middle positions in the Pac-12 standings.
Picks
- Arizona – Gross, #11
- UCLA – Bry, #21
- Stanford – Doogan, #80
- USC – Gross, #91
- California – Bry, #100
- Colorado – Bry, #132
- Oregon – Doogan, #177
- Washington – RDoc, #215
- Oregon State – Bry, #228
- Washington State – Bry, #277
- Arizona State – Gross, #315
- Utah – RDoc, #343
Big XII
Overall
The sun in the morning, that geyser in Yellowstone, and Bill Self’s team winning the Big XII – am I leaving anything out here? Like clockwork, the Jayhawks are poised to roll through the Big XII yet again, even though Jeff Withey might be their best player. It is amazing. KU is good – don’t get me wrong – but they are also aided this year by the potential trainwrecks heading towards Austin, Waco, and Morgantown, as Texas, Baylor, and West Virginia have been among the three most disappointing teams in the country so far.
CBB Team Draft
Gross took 60% of the Big XII, including the favored Jayhawks, so he is likely to dominate the bounty of points here. Doogan is pinning his Big XII to K-State, RDoc is riding Texas, and Bry will roll with West Virginia (and, the irrelevant Texas Tech).
- Savvy Picks – The best pick of this conference appears to be Gross’s nabbing of Iowa State at #187, but he also got more value than it first appeared with Oklahoma State when he stepped up to take them at #78, with the more hyped UT, K-State, and WVU still on the board. Also – and this might sound strange – RDoc’s pick of Texas might actually turn out to be decent value at #159…or it could be a total strikeout, but it was not a bad gamble to take in the mid-rounds. Before last night’s loss to Stephen F. Austin, it looked like Gross’s Oklahoma pick (#267) was one of great value. It is still nice, but that loss is scary.
- Shaky Picks – Texas and West Virginia are both in dissarray, but at least they did not go all that early in this draft. Baylor did. With the #46 pick, Gross cannot be happy with the shakiness of that team in Waco. But, they do have talent, so anything is possible. Oh, and let us not forget that, while #173 may not be “early,” the Mountaineers of West Virginia are still sitting in last-place right now for Bry, which could make that a pretty bad pick.
- Most Intriguing Battle – Doogan grabbing Kansas State at #112 could be one of huge value, if they can finish ahead of either of Gross’s Baylor (#46) or Oklahoma State (#78) picks.
Picks
- Kansas – Gross, #14
- Baylor – Gross, #46
- Oklahoma State – Gross, #78
- Kansas State – Doogan, #112
- Texas – RDoc, #159
- West Virginia – Bry, #173
- Iowa State – Gross, #187
- Oklahoma – Gross, #267
- TCU – Gross, #307
- Texas Tech – Bry, #332
SEC
Overall
Through 7 games and about 34 minutes, the Florida Gators looked like they might not only be the best team in the SEC, but quite possibly the best team in the country. Then the wheels fell off at the McHale Center and they gave that game away to Arizona. It was still a great showing for a team that should enter conference play as the clear favorite in the SEC. Our defending champs have a slew of talent but…wait for it…they’re all freshmen, so we have no idea when – if ever – they will come around. The question is will teams like Missouri, Ole Miss, Tennessee, or Alabama make a push toward the top of this conference. And, the other question worth asking: is the bottom of this league really that bad? It just might be…
CBB Team Draft
The SEC is pretty spread out around our four competitors. Bry is the only one with fewer than 3 SEC teams, but his two were the 2nd and 3rd teams off the board, so he will be in play. Doogan took the 1st and 4th teams off the board (plus the last), so he should also be in play here. RDoc and Gross went back and forth for teams 5 through 13, with Gross taking 5 teams and RDoc taking 4.
- Savvy Picks – Ole Miss is another pick on the short list for best of the entire draft, as the Rebels like like true contenders for a top 2 or 3 finish in this 14-team league, and RDoc grabbed them all the way down at #162. He also may have hit on Alabama at #119, as they could finish top 4, if things work out as planned. RDoc continued to shine in this league with his later picks of Texas A&M (#231) and, especially, LSU (#271). Gross may have find a real diamond in the rough with Auburn all the way down at the ridiculously low #326. The Tigers may be a middle-of-the-pack team here.
- Shaky Picks – It is still hard to get a read of Doogan’s Tennessee (#72) and Gross’s Arkansas (#139) picks. But, I think we can say that Gross’s pick of Georgia at #203 has disaster potential, as the Bulldogs are currently 3-7 and it hasn’t exactly been against the best competition. Gross’s Vanderbilt at #235 also looks a bit high. And, then there is the #1 overall pick in the draft. Doogan went with the defending champs of Kentucky at #1, thinking – quite legitimately – that the ‘Cats should be the clear favorites to win a large (14 teams) league, which would garner the huge 140-point bounty. But, UK is reeling and Florida is rolling, so, while the ‘Cats should still bring a decent haul, it is looking less and less likely that they will return value commensurate with their #1 overall draft spot.
- Most Intriguing Battle – This conference has several tiers and probably the most interesting of these tiers is going to be a battle royale between Gross and RDoc for those mid-to-lower SEC positions. Gross is armed with South Carolina, Auburn, Arkansas, and possibly Georgia if they turn it around fighting with RDoc’s Alabama, Texas A&M and LSU. It could go a long way towards how their overall drafts turn out.
Picks
- Kentucky – Doogan, #1
- Florida – Bry, #20
- Missouri – Bry, #44
- Tennessee – Doogan, #72
- Alabama – RDoc, #119
- Arkansas – Gross, #139
- Ole Miss – RDoc, #162
- Georgia – Gross, #203
- Texas A&M – RDoc, #231
- Vanderbilt – Gross, #235
- LSU – RDoc, #271
- South Carolina – Gross, #291
- Auburn – Gross, #326
- Mississippi State – Doogan, #344
Atlantic 10
Overall
While, as a Temple fan, the time for bemoaning our lot in this whole conference realignment ordeal will come, I would like to focus on the here and now and keep reminding myself that – if only for one season – the Owls are smack-dab in the middle of an endlessly fascinating A-10. Just looking at the KenPom rankings, after VCU (who is currently in 8th place, mind you) at 10, there are ELEVEN A-10 teams ranked between 44 and 103. And, GW sits right on the outside of that at 139. That is incredible! And, this conference season is going to be like none we have ever seen in the A-10. Buckle up, kids!
CBB Team Draft
The largest single point total in the whole competition (160) will be given to the one who picked the champion in the A-10. But, the incredible depth and parity of the league kept everyone away for almost 4 full rounds, until RDoc grabbed two teams rather quickly. Another two rounds went by before a flurry of three teams (2 for Bry and 1 for Doogan) came off the board in a quick 8-pick span. And, the fear of the unknown kept people away for longer until Gross finally entered the fray at #62. In the end, the league was very balanced – Bry had 5 teams; Doogan and Gross had 4 apiece; RDoc had 3 (including the first two off the board) – so, unsurprisingly, this league is going to be wide open all year.
- Savvy Picks – With VCU emerging as the likely favorite for the largest bounty of them all, it stands to reason that Bry taking them at #28 is going to get incredible value for his 7th-round pick. Much later, Bry grabbed Charlotte at #213 and they have looked real good against a bad non-conference schedule, so that has some real upside. However, other than the VCU 160-point potential, the best pick of this conference – as things look now – probably has to be either Doogan’s pick of Dayton at #152 or, maybe more impressive, Gross’s pick 27 spots later of LaSalle. And, then there are the late sleeper possibilities for all four of the drafters: Bry (St. Bonaventure at #244), Doogan (GW at #272), Gross (Rhode Island at #331), and RDoc (Duquesne at #338). Obviously, it is a bit of a zero-sum game with these bottom teams, as they cannot all show great value, but with these late picks and the way these four teams have played, it is not out of the question that any of them could return some great value.
- Shaky Picks – You can’t fault RDoc for this thought process in chasing the 160-point pot. And, there is no reason to think that he won’t still get it, but St. Louis looks like they might have been a little overrated without Majerus, so they may not return the value of the #15 overall pick. Gross’s entrance into the A-10 at #62 with UMass looks like a bit of a reach, as the Minutemen have been shaky and are in danger of a not even breaking the top 10 in the league – not great value for a 16th-round pick. Bry may have been caught up in some hard-core bias in reaching for Temple at #36, as it is still up in the air where they will finish. And, while it is hard to really downgrade any team picked at #296, but Doogan taking Fordham might come back to haunt him if, for nothing else, he left URI and Duquesne still on the table, who both have looked a little better than the Rams in the non-conference. But, again, with 295 teams off the table, it is nothing more than missed opportunity.
- Most Intriguing Battle – This whole conference is an intriguing battle. I know I talked about the clumping of the 11 teams within 60 spots on KenPom’s rankings, but it is even more incredible when you look closer at this four-team cluster: Temple (B-66), Dayton (D-69), LaSalle (G-70), Richmond (B-71). Four teams within 6 spots of each other, including three in a row – all the same conference. And, those four teams are split between 3 different drafters. That is nuts!
Picks
- St. Louis – RDoc, #15
- Butler – RDoc, #18
- VCU – Bry, #28
- St. Joe’s – Doogan, #32
- Temple – Bry, #36
- UMass – Gross, #62
- Xavier – Gross, #118
- Richmond – Bry, #125
- Dayton – Doogan, #152
- LaSalle – Gross, #179
- Charlotte – Bry, #213
- St. Bonaventure – Bry, #244
- George Washington – Gross, #272
- Fordham – Doogan, #296
- Rhode Island – Gross, #331
- Duquesne – RDoc, #338
