The Sun Belt is down to 11 teams after the defection of Denver to the WAC, but it might as well have been 10 teams fighting for second place this year, as Middle Tennessee St. is at least one cut above the rest, if not two or three (if that even makes any sense…).  The Blue Raiders are a true tournament team no matter what happens this weekend, but the Committee probably disagrees, so they should probably just make it official and win the thing.  They were supposed to get some resistance this year from the likes of Western Kentucky, AR-Little Rock, and Florida-Atlantic, but they all struggled at times and really posed very little threat.  But, the true disappoinment comes from North Texas, who plays in this low-major conference with a guy named Tony Mitchell – a projected NBA lottery pick – and yet barely avoided a last-place finish.  The interesting thing about that is that the Mean Green finished 9th, which lines them up with MTSU in the quarters, if they can get past LA-Lafayette.  More out of default with the expected contenders never materializing, but it was a nice year for second-place Arkansas St., third-place South Alabama, and fourth-place FIU (coached by some guy named “Richard Pitino”).

CHAMPIONSHIP (March 11th – 24 points)

#4 Florida-International vs #6 Western Kentucky
The final everyone expected, right?  Well, not exactly.  But, honestly, other than Middle, these two teams are as talented and/or hot as anyone else in the conference, so if not for the top-seed, these two are as good as any.  And, it will be a good game because there are some pretty good guards in this game, including Malik Smith for FIU and T.J. Price for WKU.

Nobody has either of these teams winning this tournament, so the Sun Belt scoring is over.  Congrats to Lazarow on taking his first ever CTC conference title in this is inaugural season.  He will always remember his first CTC conference crown…

Western Kentucky 65 – Florida-International 63
WKU coach, Ray Harper, who took over right before the 2012 Sun Belt tournament has done nothing except lead a 7-seed and a 6-seed to back-to-back Sun Belt tournament championships.  I am not sure what Coach Harper does differently in these tournaments, but he has a knack for the one-and-done format, huh?  Unfortunately, another subpar regular season might put the Hilltoppers back in the First Four in Dayton.  We will see.  Either way, it was another great run for a talented WKU squad.

No one had either of these teams, so no CTC impacts here.  Lazarow wins his first ever CTC conference title. 

SEMIFINALS (March 10th – 16 points each)

#1 Middle Tennessee St. vs #4 Florida-International
Anyone who follows the advanced metrics and tempo-free ranking systems knows that Middle Tennessee St. is clearly good enough to make the NCAA Tournament whether or not they win the Sun Belt.  That being said, they probably will win the Sun Belt.  But, this semifinal will be a big test, as FIU is playing their best basketball of the year at just the right time.  The Golden Panthers knocked off Little Rock in the quarters and Coach Pitino keeps his boys fearless.

23 people have Middle in this one – 19 of whom picked them to win this tournament.  Waters is all by himself on FIU here, so he could pick up a quick 34 points on the whole rest of the field if he hits this upset.

Florida-International 61 – Middle Tennessee St. 57
I already know that I am going to be really angry on Selection Sunday because the Committee will not include a MUCH-deserving MTSU team for its field of 68.  Don’t worry, we won’t be deprived of watching Maryland or Baylor or Cincinnati in the Dance because everyone wants to see mediocre basketball teams qualify over more-deserving teams that don’t play on ESPN every week…sorry for the rant.  This was a nice win for FIU, as they led nearly wire-to-wire and will now play for the auto-bid.  Hey, there is always the chance that Louisville wins the Big East tournament and steals a 1-seed – then maybe FIU will get the 16-seed in that region and we will have Father vs. Son in the first round…

Waters gets a huge upset here.  It’s always nice to be the ONLY ONE on an upset pick.  34 quick points for Waters, while everyone else cashes nothin’.  19 people lost their Sun Belt champion here.

#2 Arkansas St. vs #6 Western Kentucky
The Red Wolves survived overtime against Troy in the quarterfinals, while WKU won a really hard-fought game against South Alabama to set up a good semifinal here.  The Hilltoppers are playing their 3rd game in 3 nights, so fatigue could play a factor here, as well as the partisan crowd here in Hot Springs, Arkansas.

This semifinal spot in the CTC was all over the map.  Eight people (Cheryl, Dave, Gersh, GrossSr, J, Lynch, PapaCim, and Primm) have already lost it with either USA, FAU, or Troy.  Five people (GrossJr, Lazarow, Mac, Scoot, and Teddy) have WKU in a nice upset here.  The other 11 have Arkansas St.  Stumpf and Waters have the most at stake with the Red Wolves, as they are their champions.  No one has WKU winning this tournament.

Western Kentucky 58 – Arkansas St. 56
Another thriller in the Sun Belt tournament (this tournament never seems to disappoint!), as the Hilltoppers pull off their second upset in as many days, eliminating 2nd-seeded Arkansas St. on a game-winner by stud sophomore, T.J. Price.  Price – who probably has a Sun Belt Player of the Year plaque in his future – had a game-high 24 and, with MTSU’s loss in the early game, WKU has a good chance of yet another trip to the Big Dance.  A tough way for a good season to end for Ark State.

GrossJr, Lazarow, Mac, Scoot, and Teddy all hit this solid upset pick.  Stumpf and Waters lost their champions.

QUARTERFINALS (March 9th – 8 points each)

#4 Florida-International vs #5 AR-Little Rock
This is an interesting matchup between two interesting teams going in two interestingly different directions.   Despite two wins to close out the season, UALR has been on a bit of a slide after a hot start to conference play.  FIU, on the other hand, has been climbing up the standings rather steadily.  And, if nature or nurture matters at all, then they have a coach who knows his way around a conference tournament.  Rick Pitino’s son, Richard, replaced Isaiah Thomas as the FIU head man and has immediately made this program a lot better.

A small majority has UALR in the mild upset here, as 11 people (Cheryl, Gersh, Lazarow, Lohse, LohseJr, Mac, PapaCim, RDoc, Scoot, Stumpf, and Waters) took FIU.  Waters has the most at stake here, as he is the only one with either of these teams beating MTSU in the semis, as he has FIU in title game.

Florida-International 69 – AR-Little Rock 54
Junior guard, Malik Smith, hit 8 three-pointers, as the Golden Panthers advance to the semifinals with a surprisingly easy 15-point win over a decent UALR team that really thought of themselves as a potential sleeper here.  It looks like it might be Richard Pitino’s team that could be the sleeper.

Eleven people got this right, including Waters, who is the only one with FIU winning again in the semis.

#1 Middle Tennessee St. vs #8 LA-Lafayette
The Ragin’ Cajuns took care of Tony Mitchell and North Texas in the opening round, and now they get a crack at the conference’s best team.  Middle Tennessee enters the tournament riding a 16-game winning streak (the longest in the nation) and have actually entered the bubble conversation if they somehow stumble in this tournament.  Needless to say, I think they are CLEARLY a tournament team, but they probably will make it a moot point.  That being said, the Cajuns are always tough in this tournament, so looking past them would be a bad idea.

Everyone has MTSU here, with 19 people picking them to win this tournament.

Middle Tennessee St. 81 – LA-Lafayette 66
17 in a row for the Blue Raiders, as MTSU handles Lafayette with relative ease and will cruise into the semis to take on Florida-International.

Everyone got this one right, with 19 people keeping alive their champion.

#3 South Alabama vs #6 Western Kentucky
The USA Jaguars were clearly the “best of the rest” in the Sun Belt this year, finishing two games better than Ark State, but because of the division preference, ended up as the 3-seed.  They still earned a bye, but now have to face a pretty tough Hilltopper team that is a lot better than their 6-seed might indicate.  The Hilltoppers crushed LA-Monroe in the opening round on Friday, but have to step it up even more to beat a USA team that has a win over Florida St. on its resume this year.

Only nine people (Caleb, Cheryl, Dave, Gersh, GrossSr, LohseJr, Lynch, Primm, and Rikey) went with the favored Jaguars here.  Cheryl, Gersh, GrossSr, Lynch, and Primm have USA going to the finals.  Lynch and Primm have them winning this tournament.  GrossJr, Lazarow, Mac, Scoot, and Teddy all have the Hilltoppers going to the finals, but no one has them winning it.

Western Kentucky 62 – South Alabama 59
In a great game, where neither team had more than a 5-point lead the entire second half, the Hilltoppers’ Jamal Crook got a steal and scored the go-ahead layup with :27 seconds left, giving WKU a thrilling quarterfinal victory over a very good USA team.  It is a tough way for the season to end for the Jaguars, but WKU is a good team that had some bad luck to finish .500 in the league.  Watch out for the Hilltoppers.

A nice upset pick for 15 people here, as Lynch and Primm lose their Sun Belt champions.  Cheryl, Gersh, and GrossSr lost a finalist here.  GrossJr, Lazarow, Mac, Scoot, and Teddy all keep alive a finalist with the win here.

#2 Arkansas St. vs #10 Troy
The Trojans outlasted FAU in the opening round in overtime and now get to take on the 2nd-seeded Red Wolves of Arkansas St. in the quarters.  ASU had a really nice season, winning their division and earning this #2-seed and a spot in the bracket opposite Middle, so they can take their chances with potential upsets up top.  But, they should be careful here because this Troy team has been feisty all year.

Dave is the only one with Troy here (he actually has them going to the finals), but Cheryl, Gersh, J, and PapaCim have all already lost this game with FAU winning here.  Stumpf and Waters both have Arkansas St. winning this tournament, so they need the Red Wolves to survive here.

Arkansas St. 68 – Troy 63 (OT)
The second night in a row where the Trojans have to work overtime, but this time they couldn’t pull it out.  Arkansas St. overcame some really poor shooting to survive a tough underdog here and move on to the semis to face another tough underdog, Western Kentucky.  Troy is young and should be better next year, though their program is still a-ways from really pushing the top of the Sun Belt.

Stumpf and Waters keep alive their champions, while Dave loses a finalist.

OPENING ROUND (March 8th – 4 points each)

#6 Western Kentucky vs #11 LA-Monroe
After a crazy season last year that saw the coach fired in February, the seniors sent to the bench, and the underclassmen step up and nearly make the tournament, everyone thought that they would continue that momentum into this year and possibly challenge Mid Tenn for the title.  Well, the young’ins are still young, and the Hilltoppers simply never put the pieces together for any legitimate stretch of time.  The pieces are still there, though, so it would not be crazy to think that there is a run left in these guys, especially considering they get a likely overmatched LA-Monroe team right off the bat.  The winner here will get 3rd-seeded South Alabama in the quarters on Saturday.

No one has Monroe in the big upset here, but a lot of people have a lot at stake with Western.  GrossJr, Lazarow, Mac, Scoot, and Teddy all have WKU reaching the finals, while ten more (Alex, Alexi, Bry, Doogan, J, Lohse, PapaCim, RDoc, Stumpf, and Waters) have them in the semis.

Western Kentucky 74 – LA-Monroe 60
The Hilltoppers, as expected, pretty much dominated this game from start to finish cruising into the quarterfinals on Saturday against the 3rd-seeded South Alabama Jaguars.

Everyone got this one right, and 5 people kept a finalist alive, and 10 more kept alive a semifinalst.

#8 LA-Lafayette vs #9 North Texas
In, by far, the best “nicknamed” conference, two of the best go head-to-head here in the opening round.  The Mean Green of North Texas – led by future NBA lottery pick, Tony Mitchell, and NO ONE else – will take on the LA-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns.  Both teams are used to be at or near the top of the Sun Belt, so for these two to be playing in the 8/9 game is bizarre – and possibly terrifying for top-seeded Middle Tennessee St., who awaits the winner in the quarters on Saturday.

Eleven people (Alex, Bry, Cheryl, Dave, Doogan, Lazarow, Lynch, RDoc, Scoot, Stumpf, and Teddy) are going with the mild North Texas upset here.  No one has either of these teams beating Middle in the quarters.

LA-Lafayette 74 – North Texas 55
It is hard to believe that Tony Mitchell – projected NBA lottery pick – could be on any team that loses 20 games while playing in the Sun Belt.  But, that is what happened this year.  Mitchell picked up a double-double in this one, but his Mean Green got blown out in the second half, ending an incredibly disappointing season.  The Ragin’ Cajuns get to move on a take their chances with a stellar Middle Tennessee team Saturday in the quarters.

13 people got this one right.

#7 Florida-Atlantic vs #10 Troy
An expected step backwards for FAU was taken this year, but the lower expectations do not change the fact that the Owls had conference-title level of personnel the past two or three seasons and never got over the hump.  Now, they have to feel the pain of rebuilding.  They will take on a Troy team that seems to be always rebuilding, but actually showed some real signs of life in January and early February, before losing 5 straight to end the season.  The slide was much more a product of a hugely back-loaded schedule, but it is still hard to get excited about a team that hasn’t won a game since Valentine’s Day.

Six people have the first-round upset here (Alex, Bry, Dave, Lazarow, Primm, RDoc, and Stumpf), while Dave is going all-in on the Trojans.  Not only does he have them winning again in the quarters, but he has them winning again in the semis to reach the finals, which would be worth a cool 120 points in a 2x conference.  As for FAU, there is a lot at stake for some here, as well.  With the most at stake are J and PapaCim, who have FAU reaching the finals.  Throw in Cheryl, Gersh, and Teddy, who have the Owls in the semis, and there is a decent contingent of entries who need FAU to come through.

Troy 81 – Florida-Atlantic 79 (OT)
Troy’s Emil Jones scored 9 of the team’s 11 points in overtime and assisted on the other two, as the Trojans pulled off a nice overtime upset of FAU.  FAU ends a very disappointing season, but the future might be bright based on the promise of one guy – Stefan Moody.  The 5’10” freshman averaged nearly 16 points per game in his freshman season and did everything he could – dropping 29 – to pull out this opening round game.  He could be good enough to keep the Owls on the Sun Belt map, single-handedly, for the next couple of years.

Alex, Bry, Dave, Lazarow, Primm, RDoc, and Stumpf all hit this upset pick.  Dave breathes a sigh of relief, as he keeps alive a finalist here.  J and PapaCim weren’t that lucky, as they had FAU in the finals.  Cheryl, Gersh, and Teddy lost semifinalists here with the Owls.

CTC UPDATE

Championship Picks

• #1  Middle Tennessee St. (19)
• #2  Arkansas St. (3)
• #3  South Alabama (2)

Biggest Upsets

• R1 – #10 Troy (Alex, Bry, Dave, Primm, RDoc & Stumpf)
• QF – #10 Troy (Dave)
• SF – #10 Troy (Dave)
• Champ – #3 South Alabama (Lynch & Primm)

Previous CTC Champions

• 2008 – Alexi
• 2009 – Ina
• 2010 – Stri
• 2011 – J
• 2012 – Teddy

FINAL 2013 SCORES

1. Lazarow (’13) – 104
2. Mac – 92
3. Scoot – 88
4. Waters – 86
5. GrossJr – 84
6. Teddy (’12) – 72
7. RDoc – 64
8. Stumpf – 64
9. Alex – 56
10. Bry – 56
11. Lohse – 52
12. Alexi (’08) – 44
13. PapaCim – 44
14. Doogan – 40
15. Primm – 40
16. J (’11) – 36
17. LohseJr – 32
18. Dave – 28
19. Caleb – 24
20. Gersh – 24
21. GrossSr – 24
22. Rikey – 24
23. Cheryl – 20
24. Lynch – 20