Okay, Here We Go!

It is time for the Phillies to start their World Series title defense.  And, it starts today.  Playoff baseball is fantastic, and if you didn’t remember how great it was, all you needed was to watch that game last night.  I texted Doogan after it ended and said something like “Not that I’m prone to hyperbole, but that may have been the best baseball game I have ever seen.”  But, there is more today, and more for the rest of the month.  So, let’s get to a quick preview of today’s action.

NLDS, Game 1:  Rockies at Phillies, Ubaldo Jimenez vs Cliff Lee
Apparently, there is a 35-mile per hour wind blowing straight out–mostly to rightfield.  The Phils have the experience, but don’t forget that the Rockies won the NL pennant just two years ago.  It’s hard to believe that this is a matchup between the past two NL pennant winners, but it is.  (Random note:  I like the Lee choice in Game 1 because I think that, if need be, I would have more confidence in him on three days rest in Game 4 than I would Hamels.  And, that way, Hamels can be available on full rest for Game 5.)

Keys for the Rockies:

• Take pitches, work pitch counts, get into the Phillies bullpen
• Keep the ball in the yard, especially with this wind, against a potent lineup
• Don’t let starter, Jimenez, get rattled

Keys for the Phillies:

• Pile on if they get ahead and put this young pitcher and young team away early, if given the opportunity
• Field the ball and don’t give any free outs
• Have confidence down in the pen

The Final Word: 
I think that the Phils will win Game 1 behind Cliff Lee.  They may even knock Jimenez out in the first two or three innings, which would be very important, not only for today’s game, but also for tomorrow.

ALDS, Game 1:  Twins at Yankees, Duensing vs. Sabathia
I have heard talk that this may be the biggest underdog in the history of the MLB playoffs.  I am not ready to go that far, but clearly the Bronx Bombers would be heavy, heavy favorites in this series even if their opponents hadn’t just won an emotional 12-inning game, 1,500 miles away, 21 hours before today’s first pitch.

Keys for the Twins:

• Play the underdog, “nothing-to-lose” card
• Shake off the fatigue from last night without losing any of the momentum that the big win has given them
• Get at least five innings from Duensing (who had an ERA over 4.00 in AAA this year) to save an already spent ‘pen

Keys for the Yankees:

• Put this team away early–don’t let them hang around
• Work the count, wait for mistakes
• Don’t be afraid to turn to the ‘pen in the late innings if Sabathia appears to tire

The Final Word:
Obviously, you have to think that the Yankees will win this game.  However, baseball always seems to be very bizarre.  I’m not “picking” the Twins because, well, I’m not an idiot.  But, I am saying that if they can get 5+ innings from Duensing and someone can close the game (be it a tired Nathan or someone else), they can shock the world today.

NLDS, Game 1:  Cardinals at Dodgers, Carpenter vs. Wolf
It is strange that the worst team (by record) in the NL playoffs is the overwhelmingly popular pick to win the NL pennant, while the best team (by record) is basically an afterthought.  Yes, the Cardinals have an incredible 1-2 punch in the rotation and the lineup, but when it comes to the full team, the Dodgers are clearly the deeper team.

Keys for the Cardinals:

• Get guys on base for the big boppers in the middle of the lineup
• Get deep into the game with Carpenter, avoiding too many innings from a struggling bullpen
• Overcome the recent struggles and regain some confidence

Keys for the Dodgers:

• Take advantage of scoring opportunities against Carpenter
• Jump on the Cardinals middle-relievers (and possibly the closer, Franklin)
• Avoid Wolf vs. Pujols in situations that can really hurt

The Final Word:
Obviously, Carpenter is a more accomplished and flat-out better pitcher than Wolf.  And, neither team is exactly “peaking” here in October.  The Carpenter-Wainwright and Pujols-Holliday combinations are brutal, but if the Dodgers can neutralize the middle of the Cards order (not exactly an easy thing to do), will St. Louis be able to generate any runs?  Either way,  you have to pick the better pitcher, even against a deeper lineup.