It looks like the Pac-12 might be on the rebound from some seriously down seasons. But, they probably will never be the dominating West Coast league that they were for so long because of the budding programs in the Mountain West, WCC, and even the WAC. But, this year was a lot better, albeit a little bizarre.
Somehow, UCLA ended up as the outright regular season champs, even though there were memorial services for them all through the months of November, December, and even into January. But, the Bruin freshmen came together and won the league. The three-way tie for second between Arizona, Cal, and Oregon is strange, as Arizona was #1 in the country for several weeks, but Cal and Oregon looked like NIT teams, at best, for a lot of the season. But, that is the story of the Pac-12 this year – every team seems to have transformed – sometimes several times – over the course of this single season. Colorado looked like an elite team, nationally, at times, while at others, they looked like an NIT team. Arizona St. was competing for a conference title – out of NOWHERE – and now they have a ton of work to do just to get in the tournament. Utah looked like a low-major team for a while, and then just started beating people. USC had an even wider spread, from looking absolutely dreadful at times and then world-beaters at others. Oh, and did I forget to mention Washington? They had an embarrassing non-conf performance, but then won their first 5 Pac-12 games. But, in the end, they came back to the pack and showed their true “mediocre” colors. Or, maybe all these teams aren’t as good or bad as they seem and they just all keep beating each other to bring the “good” ones down and the “bad” ones up. Maybe…
CHAMPIONSHIP (March 16th – 60 points)
#1 UCLA vs #3 Oregon
The top-seeded Bruins won two tough games against the Arizona schools to get to the finals on Saturday night. Oregon had a brutally tough quarterfinal with Washington, which they won in OT, and then cruised past Cinderella Utah in the semis. It looks like UCLA’s Jordan Adams (honestly, their most consistent offensive player, despite being so unheralded) won’t play in this one, so maybe that’s why Vegas actually installed the Ducks as a 2-point favorite here.
Dave, GrossSr, Lazarow, and PapaCim have Oregon here. Cheryl, Doogan, Lohse, LohseJr, Primm, and Waters have UCLA. The other 14 people have no shot at points here. Doogan’s very impressive Pac-12 has already clinched him at least a share of this year’s Pac-12 CTC crown no matter what happens tonight. He can win it outright with a UCLA win (which would give him 345 points in this league), or split it with Lazarow and PapaCim, if Oregon wins (winning even a share without the champion is very impressive).
SEMIFINALS (March 15th – 40 points each)
#1 UCLA vs #4 Arizona
There are a TON of great games today, but this one is among the best. The Bruins, led by the super-freshmen, Shabazz Muhammad and Kyle Anderson, snuck past a game Arizona St. team on Thursday, setting up another battle with the Cactus State on Friday, after the Wildcats beat Colorado. With Cal out and Oregon a little shaky, the winner of this game will probably be the clear favorite in the title game on Saturday.
This is not only a big game, basketball-wise, it’s a huge game CTC-wise. Dave is the only one without a horse in the race here, as he had Colorado. Of the other 23, 10 of them have Arizona in the upset (Alex, Alexi, Bry, Gersh, GrossJr, GrossSr, J, Mac, PapaCim, Rikey, RDoc, Scoot, and Stumpf), with all but Gersh and PapaCim picking the ‘Cats to win this title. Of the 13 that picked UCLA here, six of them (Cheryl, Doogan, Lohse, LohseJr, Primm, and Teddy) took the Bruins to win this tournament.
#3 Oregon vs #10 Utah
The overused glass slipper metaphor can be thrown in here to describe the Utah Utes, who have actually looked very good lately. They won their last four regular season games before coming to Vegas and knocking off #7 USC on Wednesday and #2 Cal in overtime on Thursday. Now, they will try to continue their crazy run on Friday against #3 Oregon. Bubble teams everywhere are Duck fans tonight, hoping that Utah doesn’t steal the auto-bid.
14 people (Alex, Alexi, Cheryl, Dave, Doogan, GrossSr, Lazarow, LohseJr, Mac, PapaCim, Primm, RDoc, Stumpf, and Waters) have Oregon here. The other 10 have all already lost this game with Cal. Dave, GrossSr, Lazarow, and PapaCim have the most at stake here with the Ducks, as they have them winning this tournament.
QUARTERFINALS (March 14th – 20 points each)
#1 UCLA vs #9 Arizona St.
A thrilling opening round overtime win for the Sun Devils has them in a position to put themselves back into the bubble conversation with another win here against #1 UCLA. The Bruins – amidst a season of criticism and questioning – just kept on trucking, eventually turning a “shaky” year into a Pac-12 title-winning year. Good for Ben Howland. he completely changed his style – slow, methodical, defensive – to fit his personnel (athletic and offensive) and it worked. This could be a dangerous team because they have as much talent as anyone in the country. Then again, would anyone be surprised if they didn’t win a game in the Dance?
Alex has already lost this game with Stanford, but Mac can get a HUGE upset here if ASU comes through. Everyone else has the Bruins, including Cheryl, Doogan, Lohse, LohseJr, and Primm, who all have them winning this tournament.
#4 Arizona vs #5 Colorado
Colorado survived a tough Oregon St. team in the opening round on Wednesday and now they earn themselves a shot at redemption against an Arizona team that flat-out stole one in Tucson in January. The Wildcats were on top of the college basketball world for a while, but it was a bit of smoke and mirrors with lucky wins and soft scheduling. But, just because they were ill-suited to be the #1 team in the country doesn’t mean they are a bad team. In fact, they are a really, really good team. The problem is that Mark Lyons is not really as good as people may have thought, and the frontcourt is basically all freshmen. But, and I’ve said this all year – this team is as good as Nick Johnson. And, most nights, he is elite.
Dave and Doogan are the only two with Colorado in the mild upset here. Dave actually has them going to the finals. Eight people (Alex, Alexi, Bry, Mac, RDoc, Rikey, Scoot, and Stumpf) have UA winning this tournament. Five more (Gersh, GrossJr, GrossSr, J, and PapaCim) have the ‘Cats going to the finals.
#2 California vs #10 Utah
The Runnin’ Utes upset #7 USC Wednesday night in Vegas, setting up a quarterfinal matchup with the Cal Bears. I gushed the other day about Larry Brown, but my coach-love for Mike Montgomery is even higher. Honestly, I have no idea why Montgomery is so incredibly overlooked. He just flat-out wins. And, he has done it again this year. This Bears team is weak in the frontcourt and not very deep, yet somehow, Montgomery has gotten this team that is basically based entirely on the backcourt of Allen Crabbe and Justin Cobbs to 2nd place in the Pac-12 and an assured tournament bid that looked very far-fetched even a month ago. Now, they are in search of a tournament title.
Doogan has this HUGE upset here, which, if he hits it, will net him a cool HUNDRED points on the rest of the field. Dave and GrossSr have already lost this game with USC, but the other 21 people have Cal, with six people (Caleb, Gersh, GrossJr, J, Lynch, and Teddy) picking the Golden Bears to win this tournament.
#3 Oregon vs #6 Washington
The Huskies barely survived their in-state rivals Wazzu late last night to set up a border war with the Ducks. This Oregon season has been impressive. They probably would have won the league if point guard Dominic Artis hadn’t been injured. But, this roster is really good for Coach Altman, including former Duke star Kyle Singler’s younger brother, E.J., and Rice transfer – and the best Iranian player ever – Arsalan Kazemi. This is a good Oregon team and should be a tough out in both tournaments.
J and Teddy have already lost this game with Wash St. The other 22 people all have Oregon here, so a UW win would be a net zero. But, it would be good for the minority of the field that doesn’t have Oregon going to the finals. Dave, GrossSr, Lazarow, and PapaCim all have the Ducks winning this tournament, so they would like that they survive here.
OPENING ROUND (March 13th – 10 points each)
#8 Stanford vs #9 Arizona St.
A great season for ASU has fallen apart recently, but I guess when you rely so much on a freshman point guard, that’s what can happen, even with a terrific coach like Herb Sendak. Stanford looked like they were also heading to the tournament in early February, when they ran off a nice 4-game winning streak, but they haven’t kept that momentum and now they probably need at least a run to the finals to make the Dance. This is clearly an elimination game for these two teams. The winner will get an important crack at #1 UCLA on Thursday.
Eight people (Bry, Dave, Lazarow, Mac, PapaCim, Primm, Stumpf, and Waters) have the Sun Devils in a mild upset here. Mac has the Devils beating UCLA in the quarters. Alex has the most at stake with Stanford, as he has them beating UCLA.
Arizona St. 89 – Stanford 88 (OT)
A really entertaining game to start the Pac-12 tournament here, as ASU’s stud freshman Jahii Carson stepped up on the big stage with 34 points, pretty much dominating all 45 minutes of this game. The Sun Devils were up 4 in regulation with :38 seconds left when Aaron Bright hit a three and was fouled. He completed the 4-point play to tie the game, eventually forcing overtime. Stanford’s star Dwight Powell went for 23 points, 9 boards, 4 assists, and 2 blocks in the loss. The Cardinal is now heading to the NIT with a disappointing fade down the stretch. ASU, who has also faded, is still alive and might get themselves in with a win over UCLA on Thursday.
Eight people hit this mild upset pick, with Mac keeping alive a semifinalist. Alex took the biggest hit here, losing a semifinalist of his own.
#5 Colorado vs #12 Oregon St.
What a disaster of a season for an Oregon St. team that had upper-le-ague aspirations. I guess the loss of current Dallas Maverick Jared Cunningham was a lot bigger than people realized. As for Colorado, I really like this team – a lot. But, they just can’t get any consistent play outside of Boulder. It doesn’t make sense because they have some great pieces. Andre Roberson is an NBA rebounder and interior defender right now. And, their backcourt of Spencer Dinwiddie and Askia Booker is very underrated. This team could be pretty dangerous in next week’s tournament – if they get there. The winner here will get the 4th-seeded Arizona Wildcats in the quarters.
Seven people (Alex, Bry, Caleb, Cheryl, GrossJr, Lynch, and PapaCim) took a shot at a big upset with OSU. Caleb has the Beavers beating Arizona in the quarters. Surprisingly, only Dave and Doogan have the Buffs going to the semis. Dave actually has them in the finals.
Colorado 74 – Oregon St. 68
This OSU team’s season is over just like that, and it ends with a last-place finish and a first-round exit in the conference tournament. It was the Colorado defense, particularly a ten-minute stretch at the end of the first half and beginning of the second, which turned a small deficit into a comfortable lead against a live ‘dog here in the first round. An important win for the Buffs probably puts them into the Dance, but a win Thursday over Arizona would help a lot.
A Colorado win on Thursday would also help Dave and Doogan a lot, as they have them beating ‘Zona. Dave has the Buffs in the finals. Seven people missed a big upset pick here, with Caleb losing a semifinalist.
#7 USC vs #10 Utah
Two teams that are very hard to figure out. Maybe jettisoning Kevin O’Neill from the USC sidelines had to be done because they have been a lot better without him. And, with the talent – or lack thereof – on this Utah team, it’s amazing that they won 5 conference games and were legitimately better than two other Pac-12 teams. I have no idea what to say about this game – anything is possible with these two teams. The winner will get #2 Cal in the quarters.
Seven people (Alex, Bry, Cheryl, Doogan, GrossJr, Lynch, and PapaCim) have Utah in the upset. Doogan has the Utes with another upset over Cal in the quarters. Dave and GrossSr both have USC going to the semis.
#6 Washington vs #11 Washington St.
One of the better rivalries in the conference chock-full of good ones will write another chapter right off the bat in the 2013 Pac-12 tournament. The Huskies swept WSU this year, but both games were really tight and down to the wire. By the way, is it me or is Lorenzo Romar really overrated? I mean if we can kill Rick Barnes for recruiting studs and then not doing anything with them, why can’t we do the same for Romar? Think of the STUDS that have come through UW in the past couple of seasons? The winner here will get a border war with #3 Oregon in the quarters.
13 people saw a lot of value in taking Wazzu in this upset, as only 11 (Alexi, Cheryl, Gersh, LohseJr, Lynch, Mac, PapaCim, Primm, Rikey, Scoot, and Teddy) have UW. J and Teddy actually have Wazzu beating Oregon in the quarters. Nobody has Washington going past the quarters.
CTC UPDATE
Championship Picks
- #1 UCLA (6)
- #2 California (6)
- #3 Oregon (4)
- #4 Arizona (8)
Biggest Upsets
- R1 – #12 Oregon St. (Alex, Bry, Caleb, Cheryl, GrossJr, Lynch, PapaCim)
- QF – #12 Oregon St. (Caleb)
- SF – #5 Colorado (Dave)
- Champ – #4 Arizona (many)
Previous CTC Champions
- 2008 – Doogan
- 2009 – Alexi
- 2010 – Stri
- 2011 – Lynch
- 2012 – GrossJr
2013 Scores
1). 30 (perfect) – Dave, Lazarow, Mac, Primm, Stumpf, Waters
7). 20 – Bry, PapaCim
9). 10 – Alexi, Doogan, Gersh, GrossSr, J, Lohse, LohseJr, RDoc, Rikey, Scoot, Teddy
21). 0 – Alex, Caleb, Cheryl, GrossJr, Lynch
