Okay, this one may even go too far, and I can’t believe I’m even going to try and argue for this one, but:
Tell me I’m crazy, but the Phillies are probably better off, in the long-term, by not trading for Roy Halladay.
With one BIG caveat…UNLESS, they are willing to ink both Halladay and Cliff Lee to long-term deals (which would be AMAZING, by the way!) OR they are pretty sure that they cannot sign Cliff Lee long-term and would risk not having either in 2011.
Now, please understand that if I load up ESPN’s front page and it says “Phillies acquire Roy Halladay…” I will leap up from my chair and probably do cartwheels through the office BEFORE I even read further as to who they gave up to get him. In fact, just writing this blog post is getting the pure fan in me very, VERY excited at the possibility. That pure fan doesn’t care if they gave Toronto the entire minor league system, just as long as the Nationals have to face Lee, Halladay, and Hamels to open the season on April 5, 7, and 8. But, that is the fan in me, not the armchair general manager. GMs have to really look at the long-term implications much more than fans, managers, or even owners. And, that is why, with my wannabe GM hat on, I hesitate on this move, even though, from all reports, Halladay is out there to be had, and all Amaro has to do is say “yes,” because they have the best package of any of the contending teams.
But, let’s just think about it for a second, and let’s think about past 2010. I think it’s safe to assume that, no matter what happens this offseason, that the Phillies 2011 rotation will not feature BOTH Halladay and Lee, right? And, I think it’s safe to say that the Phillies at least have a shot at extending Cliff Lee after 2010, right? (ps…if that is not the case, and Lee is hell-bent on testing the market, then this whole argument goes out the window, and there is no doubt that the Phils should immediately go get Halladay and sign him long-term.) So, then for all intents and purposes, trading for Halladay is a one-year rental because they will add an ace at the beginning of the season and, because of that addition, they will lose an ace at the end of the year (even if it’s Halladay who stays and Lee who goes). Joe Blanton is eligible for free agency after 2010, and I seriously doubt that the Phils will resign him. Jamie Moyer will be 97 in 2011, so he’s not in the picture. Pedro will be 96, so he’s probably out, too. That leaves Lee/Halladay, Cole Hamels, and whomever is left over from the Halladay deal (be it Happ or Drabek or, god forbid, neither). What do the Phillies do? They won’t be able to go get a free agent because with the built-in raises to Rollins, Utley, and Howard, the already large expenses of Brad Lidge, Placido Polanco, and Raul Ibanez, the extension demands of Hamels, the questions about the futures of free-agent-to-be OFs Jayson Werth and Shane Victorino, and the humongous contract they will have to give to Lee/Halladay, they will be seriously strapped for cash. And, they won’t be able to trade for a front-line starter because the Halladay deal will, at the very least cost them a SP and an OF, so the other SP will be needed as the #3 starter and the OF will probably be needed to replace either Werth or Victorino, whomever they decide to let go. So, the once “loaded” farm system will be stripped.
So the question is: Is Roy Halladay in 2010 worth living with Kyle Kendrick as your #3/4 starter in 2011? I know that sounds dramatic, but it’s not really that big of a stretch. And, please don’t even think about 2012 and beyond, when you have to extend or lose Hamels, you have to make major decisions on Rollins and Howard, you have to think about replacements for an aging Polanco and an aging Ibanez, and you have to eventually (depending on ML playing time) start thinking about the arbitration demands of a Drabek, a Taylor, a Brown, or a Gose.
Tell me I’m crazy…….
Hold on, there is a good news in all of this, and that is………….WOW, these are GREAT problems to have. And, to play the other sidefor a minute (which sort of defeats the purpose of this post, but whatever), I kind of think Happ is, at best, a #3 starter, and Michael Taylor is not needed now and probably not needed later because of Brown and Gose, so if you can package Happ and Taylor and get Halladay, even for one year. Just do it. And, honestly, I think Ruben will do just that. Happ’s value is at an all-time high, and Taylor is too good for AAA, but does not fit the Phils outfield right now. If that will get it done, do it. Please…
