Playoff Top Twelve: Running Backs

In continuing the week-long NFL playoff theme of ranking the playoff teams in their respective aspects of the game (yesterday was quarterbacks), today’s Top Twelve will be running backs.  But, it is not individual running backs, it is more the team’s running game.  I tried to incorporate their corps of running backs, their offensive line, and even a bit of the coaching staff’s “commitment to the run.”  The list will have teams with their main running backs in parentheses, but the “analysis” (if you want to even call it that) includes the o-line and offensive scheme, as well.  By the way, I do not put much stake in “NFL rushing rankings” because I think all of those rankings are flawed by (1) such a high variance in game situations (e.g. winning or losing early, weather conditions, etc.) and (2) such a small sample size (16 games) against such varying schedules of opponents.  However, I did include them with the write-ups in an effort of full disclosure.

This Year’s Top Twelve Playoff Running Games:

12). Arizona Cardinals (Beanie Wells, Tim Hightower).  (NFL rushing rank: 28)  The Cardinals made the Super Bowl last season with a broken down Edgerrin James (though he did have a nice playoffs) and Hightower, as a rookie, so they don’t exactly need anything spectacular from the running game.  And, Beanie Wells has been actually pretty good in the second of half of, this, his rookie year.  This year’s version of the running game for Arizona is definitely better than last year’s, but still the worst among playoff teams, as I see it.

11). New England Patriots (Laurence Maroney, Kevin Faulk, Fred Taylor).  (NFL rushing rank: 12)  The Pats just simply haven’t been able to establish anything in the ground game all year.  Actually, the more I think about it, the more I think that Bill Belichick may have put in one of his better coaching performances this year because the defense is clearly flawed and with another unimpressive running game and a down year from Brady, this team was still 10-6 and the #3 seed.  But, anyway, the health of Fred Taylor helps–a little–but it’s clear that when this team really needs two yards, they throw the ball.  Kevin Faulk is a nice receiving option out of the backfield and a great guy to have on your team, but he’s not a overly competent halfback.  And, Laurence Maroney has been mediocre–at best–his whole career.  I actually thought about putting this team last, but I just think that there is something small to be said for experience at the running back position and, because of that, I give Faulk a HUGE edge of Wells, thus making Arizona #12 and the Pats #11.  Either way, this team will live and die on the arm of Brady and the hands of Moss, which is not really that bad of a problem to have, is it?

10). Philadelphia Eagles (LeSean McCoy, Brian Westbrook, Leonard Weaver).  (NFL rushing rank: 22)  The Eagles are down at #9, not because of their ability (or lack thereof) in the running game, but because of their coaching philosophy.  Riddle me this:  the Birds lose Brian Westbrook (arguably one of the best running backs in franchise history), then decide to run the ball more (almost a 50-50 balance), and they go 5-0 without him.   Then, Westbrook comes back and they go back to their 70-30 pass-to-run ratio and almost lose to the Broncos and get stomped by the Cowboys.  Nothing makes sense any more.  But, they do have talent.  Shady McCoy set the Eagles all-time rookie record for rushing yards, and Leonard Weaver showed his versatility all year.  Plus, it’s hard to think that Westbrook doesn’t one final push left in him for these playoffs.  The reason that the Eagles were easily better than New England and Arizona, to me, is the Westbrook Factor, in that he might just explode for one of those 150 yard games with two monster runs.

9). San Diego Chargers (LaDainian Tomlinson, Darren Sproles).  (NFL rushing rank: 31)  The Chargers are another team that really struggled to run the ball this year–at least if you look at just stats.  But, I think a lot of that had to do with the fact that their passing offense was just so explosive that they didn’t really need to sustain drives with 4-yard runs.  That being said, the rushing game has come back alive in the second half, with Tomlinson making a nice resurgence.  Plus, Darren Sproles is a guy that may not play a big role in any one game, but you absolutely have to gameplan for him because he always brings with him the ability to make that one game-changing play–often when you least expect it.  The Chargers and Eagles were just about even, to me, but I put the Chargers slightly ahead because of a little more of a commitment to the run from the coaching staff and a little more confidence in the breakout possibility of Tomlinson than that of Westbrook.

8). Indianapolis Colts (Joseph Addai, Donald Brown).  (NFL rushing rank: 32)  Why run the ball when you have Peyton Manning?  Well, I’m not sure, actually.  The Colts were “ranked” 32rd (i.e. dead last) in the NFL in rushing this year, yet they were almost inarguably the best team in the NFL.  This tells us one of two things:  either the league has shifted so much so that running the ball basically doesn’t matter anymore OR that the rankings are ridiculous.  You know how I feel (clearly the latter), though there are probably components of both in play here.  Either way, rankings or no rankings, importance of the running game or none, the Colts can run the ball when they need to because Joseph Addai is one of the more underrated backs in the league, and Donald Brown provides a really nice change of pace.  I have more confidence in the Colts to run the ball if they have to than I would in any of the four teams already mentioned on this list.  That being said, they know where “their bread is buttered,” and quite frankly, it ain’t Joseph Addai.

7). Green Bay Packers (Ryan Grant).  (NFL rushing rank: 14)  Interestingly enough, this is the only team in the playoffs whose quarterback is its second-leading rusher.  And, though Aaron Rodgers is a pretty mobile quarterback, he’s not Randall Cunningham, Michael Vick, or Steve Young.  That means that the Packers are the only team that is still holding true to the “workhorse back” philosophy that dominated football for pretty much my entire NFL-watching life.  The old theory of “why give carries to anyone but my best guy” has been replaced with “unless we have an absolute stud, let’s keep guys fresh and defenses guessing.”  The Packers, however, are still hanging on to their workhorse back philosophy with Ryan Grant.  And, Grant’s not a terrible guy to ride like they do, so their running game is solid, but he’s not a superstar and, therefore, their running game is not as prolific as some of the other teams who either have that superstar or efficiently utilize the combination backfields.

6). New Orleans Saints (Pierre Thomas, Mike Bell, Reggie Bush).  (NFL rushing rank: 6)  The bottom six teams on this list all, clearly, only use the run to mix it up (if they do that at all), while their offenses are absolutely built around the pass.  With #6, the Saints, though their offense is definitely a high-octane, modern-style passing attack, they definitely use the running game for more than just converting a 3rd-and-1 or killing the clock in the fourth quarter.  The running game for the Saints is definitely a weapon that works in tandem with their potent passing game.  And, they have a nice combination of Pierre Thomas–who has emerged this year as a quality tailback in this league–and Mike Bell, who is more of a between-the-tackles, inside running back, with his stocky 6’0″, 225 pound build.  And, just when you think that you might be able to contain this offense, Sean Payton finds just the right time to use the devastating quickness and speed of Reggie Bush.  When people think Saints offense, they think Drew Brees, Drew Brees, and Drew Brees, but don’t discount the ability of this team to run the ball in all situations.

5). New York Jets (Thomas Jones, Shonn Greene, Brad Smith).  (NFL rushing rank: 1)  This team’s running game–and whole team, for that matter–took a big hit midway through the season when they lost Leon Washington for the season with a broken leg.  The combination of the quickness of Washington and the toughness of Thomas Jones was a great recipe for completely hiding the inefficiencies of starting a rookie quarterback.  And, when Washington went out, it really showed, as the Jets went into a midseason free fall.  They righted the ship (with a little help from teams with, apparently, nothing to play for) and snuck into the playoffs.  Washington’s replacement is rookie, Shonn Greene, who had a pretty decent year, but is clearly not the same type of runner that Washington was.  But, maybe, just maybe, they found that speed guy in Week 17, as they got 92 yards from former Missouri quarterback, Brad Smith.  Either way, whether they get anything from Smith or not, this team does still have Thomas Jones, who might be the most underrated running back of our generation, and they have a commitment to running the ball.  As I’ve said, the rankings are a bit of a farce, but it does at least say something if a team is ranked #1, right?

4). Baltimore Ravens (Ray Rice, Willis McGahee, Le’Ron McClain).  (NFL rushing rank: 5)  Ray Rice is an absolute beast.  Trust me, I am a non-Ravens fan who lives in Baltimore, so I get to see every Ravens game, and I am able to watch them objectively.  I have often found myself tuning into Ravens games just to watch Ray Rice.  The guy is that good.  However, his ability is not completely in his rushing ability–though, 1200+ yards and 5.3 yards per carry is nothing to sneeze at–it is in his complete game, which includes his dynamic ability to catch passes out of the backfield, which is not really counted in this “analysis.”  But, even without including Rice’s excellence receiving skills, this Ravens running game is still fantastic.  Willis McGahee is almost a forgotten man when you talk about the Ravens, and he averaged over 5 yards per carry and had TWELVE touchdowns.  Throw in the beast that is Le’Ron McClain (he’s a load around the goal line) and you have yourself one of the NFL’s best rushing attacks.  Despite a tough season, an aging, overrated defense, and a pedestrian receiving corps, the Ravens might be a tough out in these playoffs simply because you’ve got to commit so much of your defensive gameplan to stopping the run that Flacco might just be able to put up a big number or so.  Don’t sleep on Ray Rice–trust me.

3). Minnesota Vikings (Adrian Peterson, Chester Taylor).  (NFL rushing rank: 13)  Now this might be a little ridiculous because they do have, BY FAR, the best single running back that will be playing in the playoffs this year in Adrian Peterson.  But, there is just something about this Vikings offense that does not instill as much confidence in their ability to run the ball as I have in the two teams that I ranked ahead of them.  Yes, Adrian Peterson is historically good (and Chester Taylor is a more than second banana), but the Vikings do have trouble in two key areas of the running game:  short-yardage situations (not on the goal line because Peterson is awesome on the goal line sweeps) and ball security.  As good–no, GREAT–as Peterson is, it is becoming harder and harder to ignore the fact that he puts the ball on the carpet.  And, in the playoffs, turnovers become so incredibly important, especially in close games or games that you’re trying to ice.  Furthermore, Peterson has been “overshadowed” so to speak by that diva quarterback in Minnesota, and I think that the coaching staff has catered to the diva so much so that it has really affected the ability of Minnesota to efficiently establish the run.  Whether Favre is audibling away from running plays or not, it definitely seems, to me, like the Vikings throw the ball WAY TOO MUCH considering the fact that they have a great defense and one of the two best running backs on the planet.  Because of all of these things, the best running back in the playoffs is only a part of the third best running team.

2). Cincinnati Bengals (Cedric Benson, Larry Johnson).  Team Castoff in the Cincinnati backfield right now.  They are featuring two of the most physically gifted running backs to come to the NFL in a long time, but two guys who had some pretty ugly divorces with previous teams–so ugly, in fact, that it was doubtful that either one would ever get another chance in the league.  But, the Bengals gave them both second-chances and they are reaping dividends, as Cedric Benson has been one of the best backs in the league this year, and Larry Johnson has been a dynamic complement.  But, even more importantly than the talent that the Bengals have assembled back there is the philosophy with which this offense is run.  There is no way that I should even consider having more confidence in the running game in Cincinnati than I do of that in Minnesota, but I do, and that is because Marvin Lewis (for all his faults) always seems to understand, at all times, where his team is strongest, and he does a great job constructing gameplans that play to those strengths, and more importantly, STICKING TO THEM.  Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think Lewis is a great coach for every team, but when a team has a clear strength, he seems very, very good.  This team’s strength is its defense and its ball-control offense.  He is not swayed by the cannon arm of Carson Palmer or the big mouth of 85.  He knows that winning games is all that matters, and this team will win by running the ball and stopping other teams on defense.  Team philosophy is why the Bengals are 10-6 and also why their running game instills more trust in me than every playoff team, except…

1). Dallas Cowboys (Marion Barber, Felix Jones, Tashard Choice).  I have said all year that if this team can get all their back healthy at the same time, they are scary good.  And, they seem to all be healthy at just the right time–actually, just the WRONG time, from our perspective.  Marion Barber is an absolute monster.  I hate the Cowboys even more than a Pennsylvania winter, but it’s hard not to like Marion Barber.  That one play on Sunday when Trotter absolutely lit him up and Barber got up, smiling, and tapped Trotter on the shoulder pads and ran back to the huddle was incredible.  I don’t think Trotter (who is quite a large man) could have hit him any harder, and Barber seemed to love it.  He welcomes collisions.  It is almost like he tackles the defenders when he runs with the ball.  And, as we’ve talked about several times when playing Brandon Jacobs, a guy like, even if he’s only picking up 3-4 yards, absolutely EXHAUSTS a defense.  And, then what happens to tired defenses against the Cowboys?  They give up 50-yard touchdowns to the lightning quick Felix Jones.  Throw in the variety of a solid off-tackle runner like Tashard Choice, and you have yourself a merciless running attack.  The Cowboys are scary good.  I still might pick the Eagles this week, but it won’t be because I think they’ll stop Barber, that’s for sure.

(NOTE:  I just listened to the Football Today podcast on ESPNRadio, and apparently Jeremy Green and Matt Williamson are going to be doing the same thing this week.  I hate it when actual analysts do things that incredibly uniformed amateur analysts–like me–try and do, too.  Haha.  Either way, just know that I have already compiled all the lists, so if there are differences, you should probably just go with their assessment.)