The New Year Report: Conference Previews Part Two

Here in Part Two of our CBB conference previews, we are now going to hit on the two relevant new-look conferences, the Big East and American, along with the disappointing SEC and the always interesting A-10.

SEC

Kentucky and Florida are very, very good (though they haven’t shown just how good yet) and Missouri, LSU, Tennessee, and Arkansas can be good in flashes, but, generally, this conference is yet again one of the more disappointing leagues in America.

• Preseason Favorite:  Kentucky
  The preseason #1 team in the country resided in Lexington with all their freshmen again.  This team appeared (and is) loaded.  With McDonald’s All-Americans at every position, it’s hard to think of them as anything but loaded.
• Most Impressive:  Florida
  Honestly, there hasn’t really been a “most impressive” team in this league because everyone has struggled.  But, the best team in the league so far has probably been the Gators, who have wins over Kansas and Memphis and only have a 6-point loss at Wisconsin and a 1-point loss at UConn.
• Most Disappointing:  Alabama
  TI used to think that Anthony Grant was a great coach.  I’m not ready to give up on that belief, but I am ready to stop screaming it from the rooftops.  This ‘Bama team is – yet again – too talented to be irrelevant, and yet they are heading down that path.
• “My” Favorite:  LSU
  I think it will probably take a big win for people to finally take note of what’s going on in Baton Rouge right now (St. Joe’s, UAB, and Butler don’t count), but when that happens, Johnny Jones will finally get some credit for the program he’s building down on the Bayou.  Jones brought in stud big man Johnny O’Bryant in his first year last year and has added two more ELITE recruits this year – Jarell Martin and Jordan Mickey.  While Martin seemed like the recruiting coup (McDonald’s All-American, 5-star rating), the less heralded Mickey may be just as important a piece.  Either way, with Martin, Mickey, and O’Bryant in the frontcourt, this Tiger team is big, talented and still very young.  They will only get better.  I would not want to play them in March, and if they all stick around, this might be a Top-10 team next November.
• Potential Sleepers:  Arkansas, Ole Miss
  Everyone knows about Marshall Henderson at Ole Miss (though, it is kind of strange how well he’s taken to a bench role – I guess it fits him perfectly because he doesn’t have to share the ball with the second team), but people are not paying much attention to the rebuilding job of Mike Anderson at his alma mater in Fayetteville.
• Also Relevant:  Missouri, Tennessee
  Frank Haith is doing it again at Mizzou with a brand-new set of super-guards.  Marcus Denmon left two years ago and Flip Pressey and Michael Dixon (the latter transferred to Memphis) left last year along with nearly the entire starting five.  But, Haith brought in two unheralded transfers and turned them into stars.  Jordan Clarkson (Tulsa) and Earnest Ross (Auburn) are perfect for this system and Clarkson has put himself into potential SEC Player of the Year discussions.  As for Tennessee, they have all the talent in the world, the question just remains as to whether or not Cuonzo Martin knows how to maximize it.
• Dregs: Mississippi State, Auburn, Georgia, South Carolina
  Not only has the top of the league been disappointing, but the bottom has been simply dreadful.  Northwestern State, Davidson, Manhattan, USC-Upstate, Missouri State, Utah State.  That might be a list of decent mid-major programs, yes.  But, it’s also a list of teams that have won road games at SEC schools.  Quality mid-major programs or not, that is terrible.  And, I left out the UTEPs, TCUs, and Boise States of the world.
• The Pick:  Kentucky
  This is a tough pick.  While Florida has looked like the better team, I still think that, in the end, the talent will win out – and Kentucky has so much talent, it’s laughable.  Gimme the ‘Cats to figure it out and take the SEC title.

BIG EAST

The Big East went from a fantastic, yet bloated and somewhat stale conference to a slimmed down, pretty solid top-to-bottom league.  They lost a lot of star power with Boeheim and Pitino and history with Notre Dame, Pitt, and Cincinnati, but kept a lot of the quality that gave this league the substance to go along with the sizzle of past years.  Plus, the additions of Creighton, Xavier, and Butler just add to the all-around quality of what remains.  I am actually excited for this league in the coming seasons – I think it might have that tunnel-visioned basketball focus that seems to elude leagues like the SEC and Pac-12. 

• Preseason Favorite:  Creighton, Marquette
  This was expected to be a pretty wide open league this year with Creighton (fueled by the amazing Doug McDermott) and Marquette (fueled by the media’s perennial, inexplicable love affair with Buzz Williams) receiving the most preseason hype.
• Most Impressive:  Villanova
  There may not be a more surprisingly good start in the nation that the one at ‘Nova.  This was generally thought of as a borderline tournament team, but Jay Wright has this team playing smart and hard, and they look like a legit team, nationally, not just in the Big East.
• Most Disappointing:  Marquette
  As great as the Villanova start has been, that is how disappointing the Marquette start has been.  They have lost five games and their best two wins were a neutral-court game against GW and a road game at CS-Fullerton.  Their other 5 wins were home games against the dregs of the nation (Southern, Grambling, New Hampshire, IUPUI, and Ball State).  One thing to say, though, is that none of their five losses were particularly “bad” losses, as all five teams are probably going to play in the tournament, but most of them weren’t even competitive.
• “My” Favorite:  St. John’s
  All five starters back, a ton of talent, back-to-back Top-10 recruiting classes, and a national championship coach.  How is this team not better?  They have to be good, right?
• Potential Sleepers:  Butler, Xavier, Providence
  Butler and Xavier are going to cause headaches for every opponent they face, particularly on their home floors, and Providence has one of the best inside-outside combos in the country in Bryce Cotton and Kadeem Batts.
• Also Relevant:  Georgetown
  The one Hoya gone – Otto Porter – from last year leaves a pretty huge hole in this team, but whole rest of the roster returns to a team that did get a 2-seed.  Was Porter that good?
• Dregs: DePaul, Seton Hall
  DePaul is always bad – and this year is no exception.  But, Seton Hall?  What is going on there?  They have already lost to two of the worst teams in the nation – Fairleigh Dickinson and St. Peter’s…at home.  There may not be a team other than Grambling that I would expect to lose home games to those two programs.  And, this is Seton Hall!
• The Pick:  Creighton
  I went back and forth on this one and finally came up with the Blue Jays because I just think that McDermott is that much better than anyone else in this league.  So, with the best player on the floor every night, it’s hard to pick against them over the long haul.

AMERICAN

The new American Conference debuts this year with a pretty strong cast of characters, though Louisville is only in a one-year stopover before joining the ACC next year.

• Preseason Favorite:  Louisville
  The defending national champs were the clear-cut favorites to take the first ever AAC title.
• Most Impressive:  Louisville, UConn
  Louisville did lose to UNC, but other than that has been as good as advertised.  But, UConn – until a home loss to Stanford – has looked as good, if not better, than the Cardinals.
• Most Disappointing:  Rutgers
  The loss of Mike Rice is certainly being felt at Rutgers…too soon?  Well, this team is dreadful.  They have lost 4 home games to mid-majors already, including one to the atrocious Fairleigh Dickinson (yes, the same FDU that beat Seton Hall on the road, but trust me – they’re BAD).
• “My” Favorite:  SMU
  I have said it a thousand times – if I had to win one basketball game tomorrow and I could have anyone in the world coaching my team, I would pick Larry Brown.  And, now, he actually has a couple players down in Dallas, so watch out.
• Potential Sleepers:  Cincinnati, Temple
  The Bearcats are kind of the forgotten team around these parts, but they are still a solid team that should be in contention for this title, even if it’s in an ugly fashion.  I put Temple here maybe as a homer pick, but I do think that this team is getting better and might have something to say about this conference race before it’s all said and done.
• Also Relevant:  Memphis
  The beauty of this conference is at the top, where you have two bluebloods in Lousiville and UConn and then you have a Cincy team that is always good, an SMU team that is burgeoning, and a Memphis team that has somehow been nationally relevant forever without ever playing in a legitimate conference.  Well, the Tigers are for real this year – let’s just see if Josh Pastner actually knows how to do anything other than charm the media.
• Dregs: Houston, Rutgers
  The non-beauty of this league lies in these two teams.  Rutgers is terrible (see above), and Houston might be worse.  They have losses to Texas Tech, San Jose State, and Louisiana-Lafayette and near-losses to Texas A&M-Corpus Cristie and Rice…ouch.
• The Pick:  Louisville
  IThe league is good, and I wouldn’t be completely shocked if UConn or Memphis won it, but in good conscience, no one should pick against the Cards in this conference this year.

ATLANTIC 10

With Temple and Xavier gone, the new-look A-10 somehow feels about the same.  A good, deep league with a TON of intrigue.

• Preseason Favorite:  VCU
  Havoc.  Many thought the Rams were Top-10 good this year, and easily the best team in the A-10.
• Most Impressive:  UMass
  While VCU has struggled, UMass has been ROCK-solid and should have no trouble going to their first tournament since the ’90s.  Chaz Williams is the real deal, but the rest of the team is solid, as well.  Great job by Derek Kellogg at his alma mater.
• Most Disappointing:  LaSalle
  After an exciting (and kind of fluky) Sweet 16 trip last year, the expectations were sky high for Dr. Giannini and the Explorers.  They only lost one starter and should have better health.  But, it hasn’t exactly gone as planned, as the Explorers have lost tough games (all to decent, but not great teams) that are seriously jeopardizing any at-large consideration they could possibly have.
• “My” Favorite:  Saint Louis
  Lost in the preseason love for VCU and the non-conference season love for UMass is the most experienced and, quite possibly, the most talented team in the league.  I love the Billikens this year.  They were playing at a nationally elite level last year and only lost one starter – Kwamain Mitchell – who was hurt for much of the season last year.  Don’t sleep on the Billikens.
• Potential Sleepers:  St. Joe’s, Richmond
  A talented team with an overrated coach (St. Joe’s) and a scrappy team with an underrated coach (Richmond) could each cause different kinds of problems for the top of the A-10 this year.
• Also Relevant:  GW, Dayton
  Dayton actually found themselves in the AP Top 25 earlier this year – and justifiably so – after a phenomenal showing in Maui.  GW is on the brink of cracking the Top 25 right now after a 10-1 start that includes wins over Maryland and Creighton.
• Dregs: Fordham, Duquesne
  No surprise here – these two teams are the perennial dregs of the A-10.  Hey, at least Duke fans can watch their senior point guard (T.J. McConnell) leading the #1 team in the nation.
• The Pick:  Saint Louis
  Call me crazy, but I think SLU is the best team in the league, so I am going to pick them to win it.  I’m not selling VCU, and I am believing in the legitimacy of UMass.  I just think that this SLU team is so underrated that they are the best team in a very good league.