The New Year Report – Conference Previews, Part Four

Well, we’ve gotten through any conference that any casual fan would care about, so it’s time to get into the weeds for the junkies.  Part Four here gives us the two macks (MAC and MAAC) as well as the Horizon and floudering CAA.

HORIZON

The Horizon lost Butler last year without replacement, which hurt.  But, this year they traded up in the conference shuffle.  They lost the lowly Loyola-Chicago program (off to get throttled in the Valley) and added a very solid Oakland team.  This is a wide-open race that should be really interesting all year.

• Preseason Favorite:  Wright State
  The Raiders return 4 starters from a surprise 3rd-place team a year ago and were picked by most as the preseason favorite in the Horizon.  But, “favorite” is not a familiar role for Wright State, and they seem to have struggled with it so far, losing games to N.C. A&T and a really bad Miami (OH) team.
• Most Impressive:  Green Bay
  With Butler gone and Valpo, Detroit, and Cleveland State rebuilding, Green Bay was thought to be the most likely challenger to preseason favorite Wright State.  Well, it looks like the Phoenix are actually the clear team to beat entering conference play.  They are 9-3 including a win over UVA.
• Most Disappointing:  Wright State
  As noted above, Wright State was supposed to be the team to beat, but have really disappointed so far.
• “My” Favorite:  Cleveland State
  Anton Grady is back from an ACL tear a year ago and he joins last year’s Horizon Newcomer of the Year, Bryn Forbes, and this year’s breakout player, Trey Lewis, to form one of the best sophomore classes around.  This team is good this year and could be SCARY good in a year or two.
• Potential Sleepers:  Oakland, Milwaukee
  Oakland has played a brutal schedule, which means they’re battle-tested and could be a real sleeper in the Horizon race.  Milwaukee was picked last in the league, but has looked far from that in non-conference play.
• Also Relevant:  Valparaiso, Detroit, Youngstown State
  Valpo is always relevant in the Horizon.  Detroit lost Ray McCallum, Jr., but still has some talent left.  Youngstown is still itching to break through and are on the radar to do so this year.
• Dregs: Illinois-Chicago
  The only bad team in the league actually has one of the best players – Kelsey Barlow, the former Purdue Boilermaker.
• The Pick:  Green Bay
  With Wright’s struggles, it’s hard to pick them to win, so the next team up in Green Bay.  They look like the favorites as we enter league play, but in a conference this wide open, anything can happen.

COLONIAL

The CAA has fallen on hard times not too long after being one of the prize jewels of mid-major basketball.  They added College of Charleston this year to try and offset the losses of Georgia State (to the Sun Belt) and, much more significantly, two long-standing pillars in Old Dominion (to CUSA) and George Mason (to the A-10).  What is left is a relatively weak conference that still has potential to be good, but won’t be this year.

• Preseason Favorite:  Towson
  Coming off one of the worst season in college basketball history last year, the Tigers really turned it around to finish second in the regular season and may have won the conference tournament if they had been eligible.  Adding a high-profile transfer in Four McGlynn to a roster that already has a superstar in Jerrell Benimon made them the preseason team to beat, though I questioned that at the time and still do.
• Most Impressive:  Drexel
  I am not sure why Towson was the preseason favorite when Drexel has a ton of talent coming back from an albeit disappointing season.  The Dragons seem to me to be – on paper – head and shoulders above the rest of the league, and that looks to be evident through the non-conference, as the Dragons have road wins at Illinois St., Elon, Rutgers, and Davidson, as well as a neutral court win over Alabama.  They also beat Cleveland State at home and – most significantly – nearly knocked off NUMBER ONE, ARIZONA.
• Most Disappointing:  James Madison
  Now they weren’t anywhere near the best team in the league last year, but they did win the tournament and represent the CAA in the Big Dance.  But, they are pretty bad this year and not looking to be much of a factor.
• “My” Favorite:  Delaware
  When you have a backcourt of Devon Saddler and Jarvis Threatt, you have to be taken seriously.
• Potential Sleepers:  College of Charleston, William & Mary
  CofC has not looked that good, but it’s been against a brutal schedule, so if they can make the adjustment to the new league, they could be dangerous.  W&M has still never made the tournament and that streak probably won’t end this year, but they shouldn’t be completely counted out.
• Also Relevant:  None
  Anyone with any relevance has been mentioned above.
• Dregs:  Hofstra
  The Flying Dutchmen haven’t had a good year since they stopped being the Flying Dutchmen.  Though, that all might change next year when they bring in two stud transfers from last year’s MAAC champion, Niagara (including Juan’ya Green, who is SPECIAL).
• The Pick:  Drexel
  I like Towson a lot (particularly because of Benimon), but Drexel is clearly the better team.  Did I mention that they nearly beat Arizona?

MAC

At least the MAC has gone away from that terrible divisional format for their conference tournament, so the glaring differences in quality among the two divisions is only a subtle factor in the unbalanced conference schedules and not an in-your-face issue come March.  This year, though, the big surprise and probable best team is in the West.

• Preseason Favorite:  Akron
  Akron was the pick here, probably based solely on prior performance because this Zips team lost a lot of talent to graduation.  Don’t get me wrong, they are still good and the rest of the teams in the league are seemingly all rebuilding, but I am not sure I would have called Akron the “favorite” going in.
• Most Impressive:  Toledo
  The Rockets were undefeated before a respectable 10-point loss at Kansas on Saturday.  The schedule hasn’t been all that cracy, but they’ve looked very good in cruising through it.
• Most Disappointing:  Ball State
  The Cardinals probably weren’t going to contend for a MAC title, but they weren’t supposed to be terrible.  Yet, they look terrible at 2-8 with 7 straight losses…ouch.
• “My” Favorite:  Kent State
  I felt better about this before the Flashes lost back-to-back games to Cleveland State and Princeton, but those aren’t devastating losses, and I think this team has the talent to make a run.
• Potential Sleeper:  Eastern Michigan
  Not supposed to do anything this year, the Eagles have been one of the more pleasant surprises anywhere.  It’s still unclear whether they have the talent to contend for a MAC title, but they have the experience and have been playing very well.  In this wide-open conference, I wouldn’t be surprised if they turned out to be the best team all along.
• Also Relevant:  Ohio, Western Michigan, Buffalo
  The Bobcats lost 4 starters, but still have Nick Kellogg and may be playing the best ball in the league right now.  Western Michigan has some young talent that could be a threat if they come together soon enough.  Buffalo seems to tantalize on paper every year and then underperform, with this year seeming to be no exception, but their talent alone has to keep them relevant.
• Dregs: Northern Illinois, Central Michigan, Ball State
  Mark Montgomery’s turnaround is going rather slowly (yet steadily) at NIU.  The Chippewas are in need of some direction.  And, we touched upon Ball State, who might actually be the worst team in the league, shockingly.
• The Pick:  Toledo
  I am not sold on this Rockets team, but 12-0 is 12-0 and they did look solid at the Phog.  Plus, and maybe most importantly, no other team looks all that inspiring to me.

MAAC

The MAAC was hit hard in the offseason, as last year’s second-place team, Loyola MD, bolted for the Patriot League, and last year’s conference champ, Niagara, was decimated with transfers after their coach bolted for Hofstra.  Throw in a big rebuild at Iona, and you have yourselves a “down year” in the MAAC.  They did add a solid Quinnipiac team, but also brought in a not-so-solid Monmouth team – both from the NEC.

• Preseason Favorite:  Manhattan
  The Jaspers were crushed by the weight of expectations last year when they were pegged as the preseason favorites, so maybe they have learned their lesson as they get that burden again this year.
• Most Impressive:  Manhattan
  A 9-2 start seems vindicating for Manhattan, but I am still waiting for a quality win other than opening night in 3 OTs against LaSalle.
• Most Disappointing:  Niagara, Fairfield
  We all knew that the Purple Eagles wouldn’t be as good as last year since the were hit with so many defections, but they still have superstar Antoine Mason, so they should not have started 1-7.  They have rebounded a bit, including a 5-point win over St. Peter’s in conference play, but they look irrelevant, which is a shame because they didn’t have any graduation losses from a conference title team a year ago.  Fairfield’s fall from relevance is also disappointing, as they are a MAAC flagship program.
• “My” Favorite:  Quinnipiac
  If they can make the transition into a much tougher league, the Bobcats have all the pieces to win this league.
• Potential Sleepers:  Siena
  Having been down for so long, you almost forget that the Saints probably have the best history and most resources in the league.  They might still be a year away, but this program is probably the MAAC’s biggest sleeping giant.
• Also Relevant:  Iona, Canisius, Rider
  Iona and Canisius are too established and expectations are too high to be called “sleepers,” but neither are getting quite the respect that their rosters seem to deserve.  Rider is almost always relevant, though rarely anyone’s favorite.
• Dregs: Monmouth, Saint Peter’s, Marist
  One of the bottom-feeders in a bad NEC, it’s hard to expect – even in a good year – Monmouth not to be a bottom-feeder in the MAAC.  St. Peter’s is going nowhere fast.  And, Marist looked utterly dreadful starting 0-9, and are now sitting on a 3-game winning streak, so the Red Foxes may actually belong here.
• The Pick:  Manhattan
  The most talented team has looked the part thus far, so there is no reason to expect last year’s collapse to repeat itself this year.