What a job this year around the league in the A-10.  If I had told you at the end of last season that Temple, Xavier, and Butler would all leave the league, and that LaSalle and Richmond would have disappointing seasons, how many bids do you think the A-10 would be in line to get?  Two?  Three, at most?  Try six.  That is what the A-10 is staring at right now.  A potential 6 bids if everything falls right.  They are ensured of getting 4, and it would be very unlikely that they don’t get 5.  That’s fantastic for this league – a league where my heart still resides, even if my team doesn’t anymore.

Most of the championship support is among the top two seeds, as only UMass (4) was picked by anyone as an A-10 champ.  George Mason is a big sleeper for a couple of people.  Bry, Doogan, and Stumpf all tied for the 2013 A-10 CTC championship.  Bry and WaTers both have a pair of A-10 titles on their mantles and are looking for a shiny new one.

CHAMPIONSHIP (March 16th – 54 points)

#2 VCU vs #4 Saint Joseph’s
God, I can’t wait for more facetime for the intolerable Phil Martelli.  Either way, though, he has the Hawks playing really well and will have them playing in next week’s tournament no matter what happens here.  How about Kanesevich going for 26 & 17 against the Bonnies?  Wow!  But, you know who else is playing well?  The Havoc.  VCU beat GW (in a game that was a lot closer than the final score) and has its defense running on all cylinders at just the right time.  This team is going to be a tough out in any tournament they play in.

No one has the Hawks here, but 10 people (Alexi, Becks, Bry, Doogan, GrossSr, Lohse, Stri, Stumpf, Teddy, WaTers) have VCU.  Stri has clinched the 2014 A-10 CTC title – his first A-10 trophy.

SEMIFINALS (March 15th – 36 points each)

#4 Saint Joseph’s vs #9 Saint Bonaventure
Is this 2012 all over again?  St. Bonaventure had an amazing run to the 2012 A-10 tournament title.  But, at least then they were the 4-seed.  They had no shot at an at-large, but this one would be much less expected.  Jordan Gathers hit a game-winning three to knock out #1-seed Saint Louis in the quarterfinals on Friday afternoon.  A little more than two hours later, Langston Galloway hit a game-winner for St. Joe’s to get past Dayton.  Now, they face off in Saturday’s semifinal for the right to play a title game on Selection Sunday.  This has really opened up for St. Joe’s, who will probably play themselves off the bubble and into the tournament with a trip to the finals.

Dave, GrossSr, Stri, and WaTers are the only 4 with any shot at points here, as they all have St. Joe’s.  None of them have the Hawks winning the title.  Obviously, no one has the Bonnies in this one.

#2 VCU vs #3 George Washington
With the top-seeded Bilikens out of the tournament, the winner of the second semifinal will be wearing the home whites in the championship game on Sunday.  VCU dominated Richmond in the quarters, while GW took care of UMass without any real trouble.  This should be a really good game between two teams that split a pair in the regular season.

Gersh and RDoc are the only two with GW winning this one.  7 people (Caleb, Dave, J, Lazarow, Lynch, Mac, Scoot) have already lost this one.  The other 16 all have VCU, including 10 (Alexi, Becks, Bry, Doogan, GrossSr, Lohse, Stri, Stumpf, Teddy, WaTers) who have the Rams winning the whole thing.

QUARTERFINALS (March 14th – 18 points each)

#1 Saint Louis vs #9 Saint Bonaventure
For most of the season, the story of the St. Louis Bilikens may have been the most underreported, underrated story in all of college hooops.  As recently as Feb 26, the Bilikens had lost two games all year – a 6-point loss to Wisconsin and a 5-point loss to Wichita State.  Other than that, they were a perfect 25-0 including 12-0 in a conference that might get 6 teams to the tournament.  But, that all changed on Feb 27, when the lowly Duquesne Dukes came into SLU and beat the Bilikens on their home floor, ending 19-game winning streak in the process.  SLU then lost at VCU two days later and Dayton at home four days after that.  They were stumbling through a 3-game losing at the worst possible time.  They righted the ship with a very nice win at UMass to end the regular season, but this team that looked so steady – with so many seniors – is, all of a sudden, showing question marks.  They are still a special team, but are they still to be trusted?  They open with a St. Bonaventure team that ended LaSalle’s season on Thursday.

Everyone except GrossSr and Lohse (who had LaSalle here) have SLU winning this game.  No one has the Bonnies.  Most of the field has SLU in the finals, with 11 people (Caleb, Chris, Colton, Gersh, Grossjr, Lazarow, PapaCim, Primm, RDoc, Scoot, Stritts) taking the Bilikens to win this tournament.

Saint Bonaventure 71 – Saint Louis 68

#4 Saint Joseph’s vs #5 Dayton
This is possibly the most interesting game in the Barclay’s Center today, as two bubblicious teams battle it out in the conference quarters.  Dayton took care of business against Fordham on Thursday and has to feel pretty good about its chances of being in the field, though a win here would go a long way.  Saint Joe’s is squarely on the bubble and, after finishing the season with back-to-back losses at GW and home to LaSalle, might need this game a little more than the Flyers.  The Hawks are led by an incredibly inconsistent guard in Langston Galloway, who can be sensational at times and disappear at others.  Look at Galloway’s last 6 games as a perfect example.  After only scoring 6 against Rhode Island, he dropped 33 on Fordham, then 7 against Dayton before 27 against the Bonnies then 10 against GW before finishing with 27 against LaSalle.  He’s a special player, but he needs to always be there for the Hawks to make a run in these one-and-done tournaments.  The strength of this St. Joe’s team, though, is its interior defense.  They rank are the 8th best team in the nation at blocking shots and that is with their tallest player at just 6’8″.  They face a Dayton team without a ton of height, so it’s a decent matchup for the Hawks, who swept the Flyers in the regular season, including 79-53 beatdown on Hawk Hill two weeks ago.

This game is a huge CTC game.  Primm has lost this game already with Mason, but the other 24 people are exactly split 12 and 12 on either side of this one.  And, even more intriguing is that 4 people on each side have their winner winning again in the semis.  Dave, GrossSr, Stri, and WaTers all have St. Joe’s in the finals.  J, Lohse, Lynch, and Stumpf all have Dayton in the finals.  Becks, Caleb, Doogan, Gersh, GrossJr, Lazarow, Scoot, and Teddy are the other 8 with Dayton here.  This could be big.

Saint Joseph’s 70 – Dayton 67

#2 VCU vs #7 Richmond
Shaka Smart’s Rams have no bad losses (worst loss at UNI is a tough place to play) and quite a few solid wins.  They have a very deep, veteran-laden team that plays that “havoc” style that lives up to its name.  So, why are they so ignored nationwide?  That’s a hard one to answer, but they are.  They are currently staring at a potential 8-seed, and I will say right now, that I would NOT want to be the 1-seed in that region.  This team can beat anyone in the country and I think they are poised to make a serious run in this tournament and the next.  Their first test here is a tough one.  Richmond, who might have an outside shot to play their way back on the bubble, is assuredly NIT-bound with a loss here.  They stayed alive by handling Duquesne on Thursday, but this is a whole other animal here.

All 25 people have VCU here, including 10 (Alexi, Becks, Bry, Doogan, GrossSr, Lohse, Stri, Stumpf, Teddy, WaTers), who have them winning it all.  A slew of other people have them in the finals, so this would bust a ton of brackets were Richmond to pull the upset here.

VCU 71 – Richmond 53

#3 George Washington vs #6 Massachusetts
UMass trailed for most of their opening round game against Rhode Island, but pulled it out setting up an excellent nightcap to a great day in Brooklyn.  The resurgence in Washington is a welcome sight for true fans of the A-10 that loves to see charter members (like both of these schools) back in the limelight.  GW, at 24-7, has no bad losses this year and boasts wins over VCU and Creighton.  Led by two senior transfers – Isaiah Armwood (Villanova) and Maurice Creek (Indiana) – and an unconventional point guard from Argentina (Patricio Garino), this GW team is going to be really tough in any tournament.  It will be interesting to see Garino try to check Chaz Williams, a matchup that might decide the outcome in this one.

Only 7 people (Chris, Gersh, GrossSr, RDoc, Stri, Stumpf, Teddy) went with GW, despite the higher seed and the bye.  Gersh and RDoc have the Colonials in the finals, so this is big for them to get back into contention.  The other 18 all have UMass here, including Dave, J, Lynch, and Mac, who went out on a limb and took this 6-seed to win 4 games in 4 days and take the A-10 title.  Caleb, Lazarow, and Scoot all have the Minutemen reaching the finals.

George Washington 85 – Massachusetts 77

SECOND ROUND (March 13th – 9 points each)

#8 LaSalle vs #9 Saint Bonaventure
What an incredibly disappointing year up on North North Broad.  After a surprising Sweet Sixteen trip a year ago, the Explorers returned just about everyone and just couldn’t get anything going this year in the noncon or conference play.  They are still dangerous, but I guess Ramon Galloway was more important than we thought.  They still have the underrated Duren and the overrated Garland in the backcourt and a decent frontcourt of Wright and Zak, but there really isn’t any depth on this team, and it has hurt them.  By the way, I saw a stat the other day – coming into this season, there had only been 3 players in Big Five history to score 1,500 points, dish out 500 assists, and get 200 steals.  Tyreek Duren became the 4th this year.  What a great career.  The Explorers will try and keep their season going at noon against a very experienced Bonnies team that doesn’t beat themselves.  They aren’t incredibly talented, but they could give a team like LaSalle fits (like they did in Olean on Jan 22).  The winner of this game will move on to face #1 Saint Louis on Friday.  The rest of the A-10 would probably rather see the Bonnies win here and just be done with a LaSalle team that is still awfully dangerous in a one-and-done scenario.

8 people (Alexi, Becks, Bry, Caleb, Dave, Doogan, J, Teddy) have the Bonnies in a minor upset here, though none of them have them beating SLU.  GrossSr, Lohse, and WaTers all have enough faith in LaSalle to have them going to the semis.

Saint Bonaventure 82 – LaSalle 72

#5 Dayton vs #13 Fordham
The Fordham Rams upset George Mason on Wednesday night to join the A-10 second round party on Thursday.  They are welcomed by a Dayton Flyer team that probably only needs to avoid a bad loss like this one to get in the Dance.  Interestingly, if they are to win today, but lose tomorrow, they are definitely on the bubble, which means that they could easily end up in the First Four, which happens to be played – on their home court.  That would be interesting, for sure, particularly since Dayton has a notoriously good homecourt advantage.  I’m not saying it’s unfair – the other team shouldn’t be in that position.  Anyway, the winner of this one takes on #4 St. Joe’s and their insanely overrated and so subtley arrogant head coach in the quarters.

No one has Fordham here, but GrossSr, Primm, and RDoc all had Mason, so they have already lost this one.  The other 22 have Dayton, including 4 (J, Lohse, Lynch, Stumpf) that have the Flyers going all the way to the finals.  8 others (Becks, Caleb, Doogan, Gersh, GrossJr, Lazarow, Scoot, Teddy) have them beating St. Joe’s in the quarters.

Dayton 87 – Fordham 74

#7 Richmond vs #10 Duquesne
The Spiders were in really good at-large shape for most of the season, especially after a Feb 22 win over LaSalle put them at 8-4 in a conference that looks to get anywhere from 5-7 bids.  Then the bottom fell out.  Four straight losses starting with bottom-feeders George Mason and Rhode Island essentially popped Richmond’s bubble.  Now, they need a big-time run in this tournament to even get back in the discussion.  That would have to start with Duquesne on Thursday.  The Dukes – a surprising 10th-seed – finished up very impressively, beating Saint Louis on the road, then nearly beating UMass, before finishing up the regular season with an 81-69 win at George Mason to clinch a bye.  Two teams going in opposite directions, but the one falling was much higher to begin with, so this should be interesting.  The winner takes on 2nd-seeded VCU on Friday.

Bry, Doogan, Grossjr, Scoot, and Stri have the Dukes in an upset here.  The other 20 all have Richmond.  No one has either of these teams beating VCU on Friday.

Richmond 76 – Duquesne 64

#6 Massachusetts vs #11 Rhode Island
UMass was the talk of the town for much of the A-10 season, but hit a skid in the middle which included losses to George Mason and Saint Bonaventure.  They should be locks for the Dance, though, but it might be a good idea to win here so that they don’t give the Committee too much to think about.  They did sweep URI in the regular season, but both games were close, hard-fought wins, including a 3-point win on Feb 26.  The Rams enter the tournament having won 3 of their last 4 to earn the bye.  They will have to slow down one of the most exciting players in the country, though in Chaz Williams.  The UMass team very vaguely reminds me of the 2000 76ers, with Williams playing a poor man’s Iverson (though he dishes more than AI did) and the rest of the team playing hard-nosed defense and hitting the glass very hard.  The winner here takes on #3 GW in the quarters on Friday.

Stri is all alone with a URI upset pick here, so he could pick up a free and clear 54 points on the field with a Rams win here.  And, maybe even more significantly, many, many brackets would be busted.  Dave, J, Lynch, and Mac all have UMass winning this tournament.  Caleb, Lazarow, and Scoot have them going to the finals.  And, everyone esxcept Chris, Gersh, GrossSr, RDoc, Stri, Stumpf, and Teddy have them beating GW in the quarters.

Massachusetts 65 – Rhode Island 61

FIRST ROUND (March 12th – 4.5 points)

#12 George Mason vs #13 Fordham
What a tough luck season as their first in the A-10 for Mason.  They lost 3 overtime games in conference (including 2 against league champion, Saint Louis).  They also were within 2 possessions of St. Joe’s, UMass, and GW.  I would not want to face this team in this tournament.  And, no one might have to because Mason also had a habit of losing to bad teams, like Forham, who beat them 76-70 on Jan 22.  The winner will join the regular 12-team tournament on Thursday with a game against #5 Dayton.

5 people (Becks, GrossJr, Lohse, Mac, Stri) went with Fordham here in a mild upset.  GrossSr, Primm, and RDoc all have Mason beating Dayton in the second round.  Primm has them winning again over St. Joe’s in the quarters.

Fordham 70 – George Mason 67
Typical for the 2013-14 George Mason Patriots.  They played good teams tough, but lost, and played bad teams tough, and lost.  Well, Fordham is a bad team, so Mason played them tough and lost.  24 offensive rebounds enabled the Rams to overcome poor shooting and move on to the second round against #5 Dayton.

Becks, GrossJr, Lohse, Mac, and Stri hit this mild upset.  GrossSr and RDoc lose a quarterfinalist.  Primm loses a semifinalist.

CTC UPDATE

Championship Picks

• #1 Saint Louis (11) – Caleb, Chris, Colton, Gersh, Grossjr, Lazarow, PapaCim, Primm, RDoc, Scoot, Stritts
• #2 VCU (10) – Alexi, Becks, Bry, Doogan, GrossSr, Lohse, Stri, Stumpf, Teddy, WaTers
• #3 George Washington (0)
• #4 Saint Joseph’s (0)
• #5 Dayton (0)
• #6 Massachusetts (4) – Dave, J, Lynch, Mac

Biggest Upsets

• R1 – #13 Fordham (Becks, GrossJr, Lohse, Stri)
• R2 – #12 George Mason (GrossSr, Primm, RDoc)
• QF – #12 George Mason (Primm)
• SF – #6 Massachusetts (Caleb, Dave, J, Lazarow, Mac, Scoot)

Previous CTC Champions

• 2008 – Waters
• 2009 – Bry
• 2010 – Doogan
• 2011 – Waters
• 2012 – Teddy
• 2013 – Bry, Doogan, Stumpf

2014 Scores