So, remember that cliche that I probably used way too many times, the calm before the storm? Well, the skies are darkening…the storm is a-brewin’. Here we go. A whole slew of CTC games today and tonight, setting up for a huge Saturday. The first week will be defined by the next 36 hours, so without any more fanfare, let’s get right to it.
MISSOURI VALLEY QUARTERFINALS (12 points each):
After the opening round appetizer last night, the main course of a Valley quadruple-header begins today. Only two entries lost semifinalists yesterday, so there are probably going to be a ton of CTC points handed out today in St. Louis.
#8 Drake vs. #1 N. Iowa (15-3). After an exciting, last-second win last night, Drake is rewarded with a noon (local time) tip against nationally-ranked and top-seeded N. Iowa. The defending regular season and tournament champs repeated this year in the regular season and will try to do the same here in the tournament, starting today. Teddy is the only one who does not have UNI winning this game. He has S. Illinois, so he’ll be rooting or Drake to zero everyone out on this game. Four entries (Bry, Doogan, Stri, and Lil Lohse) have N. Iowa as their MVC champs, so they will be wearing the purple and gold of UNI this afternoon.
#5 Bradley (9-9) vs. #4 Creighton (10-8). Two solid programs face off in the second game of the MVC quadruple-header. Both teams played tough non-conference schedules in expectations of possible at-large consideration. But, both teams struggled through a tough MVC to finish around .500, leaving them far from the bubble. Now, their only chance at The Dance is to win three straight in Arch Madness. The field is completely split on this game, with half having Bradley and the other half having Creighton. The contestants with the most at stake here are Teddy (Creighton), Lynch and Alexi (Bradley) who have this game’s winner going to the finals. No one has either of these teams winning the MVC.
#7 Missouri St. vs. #2 Wichita St. (12-6). Missouri St. struggled with The Valley’s worst team, Evansville, last night, but they survived and now get a shot at #2 Wichita St. The Shockers had a decent season, but are not really on the bubble, so they need to win this tournament. This is a pretty big game for the CTC, actually. Teddy, Bry, and Doogan all have Missouri St. in this upset. Teddy even has them winning the entire thing. On the other side of this one are Ina, J, Alexi, Waters, Lynch, and KA who all have Wichita St. winning the MVC outright. Lohse is the only one who cannot score from this game, as he had Evansville winning here.
#6 Indiana St. (9-9) vs. #3 Illinois St. (11-7). The nightcap of Arch Madness’s maddest day is an interesting matchup between a pair of ISU’s. Both teams are definitely contenders for this tournament, but it has to start tonight. J and Ina both have Indiana St. in the upset, though neither of them have them going any further. Bry, Doogan, and both Lohses have stake in Illinois St., as they have them in the finals. Lohse actually has them winning the tournament.
ATLANTIC SUN SEMIFINALS (8 points each):
Well, the smoke has cleared from a two-day long quadruple-header of carnage in Macon, GA, for the top teams in the A-Sun. The regular season ended with a 4-way tie for first, so it was expected that the semifinals would feature those four teams battling it out over two days for the right to represent the A-Sun in the Big Dance. But, things don’t always go as planned, as three of them failed to make it. Only the #2-seed Jacksonville survived, while the other three were upset. This sets up a surprising, but interesting semifinal double-header tonight in Macon. As far as the CTC goes, Bry will try to continue his perfection in the A-Sun. Any points are good from here on out for anyone, though, because there are already six people who has lost their champion pick–three of whom are totally finished for this bracket, including two-time defending champ, J.
#8 Kennessaw St. vs. #5 E. Tennessee St. Maybe the biggest surprise of the CTC so far was the KSU Owls upsetting #1-seed Lipscomb on Wednesday night. Now, they get the benefit of an extra day off as they play the Buccaneers of ETSU. Bry, Ina, Stri, Alexi, Waters, Lynch, and Teddy all have ETSU winning this game. No one, though, has them winning it all. No one has KSU winning this game.
#6 Mercer vs. #2 Jacksonville. The Dolphins of Jacksonville are the only co-champ still standing, but it’s not like they have an easy road. After a night off, they play the host school, Mercer, tonight in the semis. No one has Mercer winning this game, but seven people have Jacksonville (KA, Lohse, Lynch, Waters, Alexi, Ina, and Bry). Six of them (all by KA) have Jacksonville winning the whole thing.
HORIZON LEAGUE QUARTERFINALS: (8 points each):
Remember the Horizon League (a 2x bracket)? They played their opening round on Day One of The Challenge and now continue the tournament with the quarterfinals today and the semifinals tomorrow, at Butler. Then, they will take three more days off before playing the finals on March 9th at the home court of the highest remaining seed. In case we’ve forgotten in the madness that was the past couple days, Teddy, Ina, Doogan, and Lohse were all perfect with their opening round picks in the HL.
#7 Detroit vs. #3 Green Bay. In a big NFC Central matchup, we will see if Barry Sanders can carry the Lions over some old quarterback who is about to stab his fans in the ba…wait, this is March college hoops, not Thanksgiving football? My bad. Anyway, Detroit, the only team to pull off a road upset on Tuesday night now gets to play a neutral-site game against Green Bay for the right to take on #2 Wright St. in the semis. Green Bay took care of business against the #10-seed Youngstown St. on Tuesday, so they find themselves three wins from dancing. Four people (J, Stri, Waters, and Lil Lohse) have Valparaiso winning this game, so they have no shot at points here, which is bad because the game is relatively split amongst the remaining entries, so they are going to lose points somewhere. Doogan, Alexi, Lohse, and Teddy all have Detroit to win again tonight. Lohse even had the Titans in the finals, so this is big for him. The biggest Green Bay fans are Ina and KA, as they both have them in the finals. KA actually has them winning it all.
#5 Cleveland St. vs. #4 Milwaukee. Both Cleveland St. and Milwaukee survived at home on Tuesday night to set up a pretty good quarterfinal matchup between two of the more formidable teams in this conference. The winner will get to play against the hosts and nationally-ranked Butler on Saturday night. Everyone still has scoring possibilities in this game, and they are pretty spread out, so this is a pretty big game for the CTC. Seven entries have Milwaukee, while five have Cleveland St. (Bry, Stri, Alexi, Lynch, and Lil Lohse). Ten of the twelve entries have Butler winning the semi, but there are two with finalists playing in this game. KA has Milwaukee in the final; Lynch has Cleveland St. winning it all.
OHIO VALLEY SEMIFINALS (8 points each):
Just like the Horizon League, the Ohio Valley has taken a couple of days off before continuing their tournament. Lohse is the only one to hit all four quarterfinal games, so he tries to continue his perfect OVC bracket.
#4 E. Illinois vs. #1 Murray St. E. Illinois, who edged E. Kentucky on Tuesday night, now gets to play #1 Murray St. in Nashville for a spot in the finals. Murray St. hammered Tennessee St. on Tuesday by 33. Everyone has Murray St. winning this game, except KA, who had E. Kentucky. She will be rooting for EIU to zero everything out. Lohse and Stri wouldn’t necessarily mind a Murray St. loss because everyone else has the Racers winning this tournament.
#6 Tennessee Tech vs. #2 Morehead St. Morehead St., like Murray St., won their quarterfinal by 33. And, now they get the only team that pulled off a road upset on Tuesday, Tennessee Tech in the semis. Lil Lohse and KA have already lost this game, having picked Austin Peay to win this. Everyone else, except Lynch has Morehead St. winning this game. Lynch has the big upset of Tennessee Tech. Stri and Lohse have the most at stake with Morehead, as they have them winning it all.
COLONIAL OPENING ROUND (6 points each):
With all due respect to Arch Madness in St. Louis, I think that the Colonial tournament is clearly the best tournament of the first week. Eleven games in four days, including some always intriguing matchups and players. This conference never fails to bring excitement, beginning from the opening tip at noon. Alexi had a nice 75-point performance in ’08 to take the title, but that was nothing, as Ina DOUBLED that last year, only missing one opening round game on her way to a 150-point title-winning performance. Lynch had just 18 last year, while Doogan has stuggled for two years now in the CAA.
#9 UNC-Wilmington (5-13) vs. #8 Towson (6-12). Pat’s Cats have not exactly taken to the coaching style of Pat Kennedy, at least until the very end of 6th season at Towson. The Tigers just started playing better down the stretch, altogether, had another disappointing season. UNC-Wilmington wasn’t any better, as they finished just 5-13 in the CAA. The winner of this opening round game will play the top-seeded ODU Monarchs tomorrow afternoon. Only 5 CTC’ers had the favored Towson winning this game (Ina, Alexi, Waters, Lohse, and KA). 11 of the 12 contestants have Old Dominion beating whomever comes from this pair. The one for whom this game is really big is KA, who has Towson going all the way to the CAA finals.
#12 Delaware (3-15) vs. #5 VCU (11-7). The defending champs, VCU, just missed the first-round bye and has to play Delaware in the opening round. It’s not quite a bye, but it’s close, as the Blue Hens (despite a couple of star Delaware high schoolers on the squad) were incredibly disappointing this year all year long. The winner of this game will play George Mason in the quarters. Only Waters (not even UD alum, Lynch) took the Blue Hens in this one. Waters does not have them going any further. The biggest VCU fans among us are Lohse and Teddy, who have the Rams winning the CAA for the second straight year.
#10 Georgia St. (5-13) vs. #7 Hofstra (10-8). If you only looked at the CTC picks, you would be shocked to learn that Hofstra was a 7-seed and only 2 games over .500 in league play. This game, tonight, could have major CTC implications because of the incredible belief in the Flying Dutchmen (yeah, I know they changed that nickname from the greatest nickname in college sports to the worst, but I refuse to acknowledge the change). Not one of the 12 entries has Georgia St. winning this game. But, it doesn’t stop there. The winner of this game would play the #2-seed Northeastern in the quarters. Only 3 of the 12 (Stri, Alexi, and Teddy) actually have Northeastern in that game; everyone else has Hofstra in the semis. And, then, just as interesting, no one has Hofstra going any further. All 9 have them losing in the semis. Interesting.
#11 James Madison (4-14) vs. #6 Drexel (11-7). The Drexel Dragons has a real shot at the #4-seed and the first-round bye that comes with it, but they dropped a couple key games down the stretch and find themselves playing in the opening round, as the #6-seed. Their opponent is the 11-seeded JMU Dukes in the late game tonight in Richmond. Bry and KA are the only two that picked James Madison in this upset. J has the most at stake with Drexel, as he and his Philly roots have Drexel going all the way to the finals.
WEST COAST OPENING ROUND: (4 points each):
The WCC opens their tourney tonight in Vegas. A conference that has been utterly dominated by Gonzaga has 7 teams chasing them now. Also, the WCC sets it up to really favor the better seeds, as the top two seeds have double-byes, while the 3- and 4-seeds have single byes. The 5- through 8-seeds have to win three straight games to qualify for The Dance. Waters won the ’08 WCC title by getting everything correct until the final. Ina took last year’s title with a perfect WCC bracket.
#8 Pepperdine (3-11) vs. #5 Loyola Marymount (7-7). This year is the 20th anniversary of the untimely passing of Philly’s own Hank Gathers and the amazingly inspirational run of Bo Kimble and LMU in his honor. Do they have the magic to bring it back? We will find out tonight as they open their postseason against Pepperdine, with the winner getting #4 San Francisco in the quarters. KA, Waters, and Bry all have Pepperdine in the upset. Ina, Stri, and Alexi all have LMU winning two games in this tournament.
#7 Santa Clara (3-11) vs. #6 San Diego (3-11). San Diego’s remarkable run to the WCC title two years ago, with a young team, created expectations that they clearly have not fulfilled in the two subsequent seasons. They did come together at the end of the season to grab the 6-seed, pitting them against Santa Clara in the opening round. The winner of this game will play #3 Portland in the quarters tomorrow night. Lil Lohse, Lynch, Doogan, J, and Bry all have Santa Clara in this one, though none of them have them beating Portland. KA believes in San Diego, as she has them beating not only Santa Clara here, but Portland in the quarters and St. Mary’s in the semis before losing in the finals.
SoCON OPENING ROUND (2 points each):
The SoCon gets going today with quadruple-headers today and tomorrow. In a conference that used to be all Davidson’s, a new team, Wofford, emerged as the dominant team this year. College of Charleston and Appalachian St. also had decent years and ought to be considered legit contenders for this title. Lynch dominated the SoCon last year, after Ina had won it the year before. Doogan, Bry, and Alexi all struggled last year.
#6N Elon (5-13) vs. #3S Davidson (11-7). Stephen Who? Oh, right, Stephen Curry. The guy who is one of the top two favorites for NBA Rookie of the Year this year. Ya, that guy is pretty good. Davidson was okay without Curry, but he clearly was the guy that made that team so dominant for the past couple of years. Bry, Ina, Stri, Lynch, and KA all have Elon in a big upset here over Davidson. Doogan, Alexi, Lohse, and Teddy all have Davidson winning two games in this tournament.
#5S Furman (7-11) vs. #4N UNC-Greensboro (6-12). The Paladins of Furman open their postseason against UNC-Greensboro, with the winner to face top-seeded Wofford in the quarters. This shows you the lack of balance between the two divisions, as Furman has a better record, but a worse seed than Greensboro. Only Teddy, J, Stri, and Waters went with Greensboro in this one. Waters has Greensboro knocking off Wofford next round, so he needs this win. KA has Furman beating Wofford, so she also needs it, just on the other side.
#6S Georgia-Southern (6-12) vs. #3N Chattanooga (6-12). Another example of the difference between the two divisions has the 6-seed from the South playing the 3-seed from the North between teams with the same conference record. The winner of this game will play College of Charleston in the quarters. Bry, Ina, Doogan, Alexi, and both Lohses have GA-Southern in the upset. None of them have GA-Southern moving on after that, though. KA is the only one that has Chattanooga moving past the quarters. She has them winning the whole tournament, so this is a big game for her.
#5N Samford (5-13) vs. #4S The Citadel (9-9). The Citadel opens their postseason with a game with Samford in the nightcap. The winner of this game will play Appalachian St. in the quarters. Doogan is the only one that has Samford in this game, so he could pick up some nice points on the field if he hits this one. Bry, J, Lynch, and KA all have The Citadel winning the quarterfinal matchup with App St. Lynch even has them going all the way to the finals.
MAAC OPENING ROUND (2 points each):
The Siena Conference…I mean the MAAC…gets underway today with a pair of opening round games in Albany. Every conference tournament game is exciting and intriguing, but these are not exactly two matchups that have anyone glued to their ESPN ScoreTrackers. Bry is coming off of a perfect MAAC bracket in ’09, so he will try and continue that trend. J won the MAAC in ’08. Alexi and Lynch have historically struggled forecasting this tournament.
#9 Manhattan (4-14) vs. Loyola (MD) (6-10). The Manhattan Jaspers have really fallen off, finishing only above hopeless Marist in the MAAC. They take on Loyola tonight in the 8-9 opening round game for the right to get destroyed by Siena tomorrow. Bry is the only one who has Manhattan in this minor upset. And, no one has either of these teams beating Siena next round. This game is about as meaningless as there is in the CTC…but somehow, I’m still interested.
#10 Marist (1-17) vs. #7 Canisius (8-10). The Red Foxes of Marist finished the regular season with a 1-28 record, with their only win coming at home against Manhattan. Canisius had a decent season, finishing just one game out of the 5-seed. The winner of this game will play #2 Fairfield tomorrow in the quarters. Stri and Waters both took the bait of the upset points and went with Marist. In fact, both of them went a step further, taking Marist not only to beat Canisius tonight, but then to knock off Fairfield tomorrow. Three entries (Teddy, KA, and Lynch) all have Canisius going to the semis, so they need a win tonight.
