CTC Day 8 Preview

Let’s ramp it up, folks.  If you thought that the first week was crazy, just wait until we start handing out massive amounts of points for each game.  Here we go…

HORIZON LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP (32 points):
After the opening round way back on Day One, and the quarters and semis on Friday and Saturday, the Horizon League, a week after its tournament began, is ready to finally crown a champion.  The top two seeds, who both only needed to win one game to get here, will battle for the auto-bid.  Through it all, Doogan and Teddy have somehow remained perfect in this bracket and have clinched the title.  The only question now is:  will they go perfect?

#1 Butler vs. #2 Wright St.  Bubble teams across the nation are rooting hard for Butler tonight, as Wright St. could steal an at-large with a win.  No one in the CTC has Wright St. winning this tournament, but two entries (Lynch and KA) have someone other than Butler, so they will be rooting for Wright St. to zero this game out across the board.  The other 10 entries will get 32 points if Butler wins tonight at home.

SUN BELT CHAMPIONSHIP (16 points):
After 11 great games in Hot Springs, we are down to just two teams–the top two seeds–for all the marbles in the Sun Belt.  J currently has the CTC Sun Belt lead, but the W. Kentucky elimination means that he cannot win the ultimate title.  If Troy wins, Waters wins the Sun Belt going away.  If N. Texas wins, Stri will take his third CTC conference title of the 2010 season.

#1 Troy vs. #2 N. Texas.  Troy has held its opponents to 55 and 48 points, respectively, in the first two rounds of this tournament, including a really nice win over a solid W. Kentucky squad.  N. Texas has gotten lucky with its draw, but struggled somewhat with #10 LA-Monroe and #6 Denver.  But, there are no style points in the Sun Belt, it’s all about the W’s.  The teams will battle tonight for the conference’s auto-bid.  Only three CTC’ers have anything at stake tonight.  Waters is the only one with top-seeded Troy winning this tournament.  Doogan and Stri both have N. Texas taking the title.

SUMMIT LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP (16 points):
The Summit League has played down to its final two, as the top two seeds will battle it out for the conference’s NCAA tournament bid.  With an IUPUI win tonight, Doogan will complete a perfect bracket and a successfully defend his share of the ’09 Summit League title.  If Oakland wins, Ina will continue her Summit dominance by winning a share of three straight Summit League titles (including perfection in ’08).  If that happens, she will share the crown this year with Lil Lohse, Alexi, and Bry.

#1 Oakland vs. #2 IUPUI.  Oakland has done their job with two business-like wins over UMKC and IPFW to get here to the finals.  IUPUI beat W. Illinois in the quarters and then a hard-fought semifinal win last night over Oral Roberts got them here, 40 minutes from glory.  Nine CTC’ers have a horse in this finals race:  5 for Oakland (Bry, Ina, J, Alexi, and Lil Lohse) and 4 for IUPUI (Doogan, Stri, Waters, and Teddy).

ATLANTIC TEN OPENING ROUND (10 points each):
Just when the A-10 takes a step towards creating a “Big Seven” conference in college hoops, they take two steps backwards.  This year, they have their title game on Selection Sunday (like the ACC and the SEC and the Big XII).  That’s a step in the right direction (even though I hate it, from a fan’s perspective).  But, they also took two steps backwards, as they decided this year to play the opening round on campus sites, and then ship the eight quarterfinalists to Atlantic City for the weekend.  A big-time conference has to be able to sell their entire tournament without having to go to the campuses of the higher seeds to do so.  Then, in this down year for the “Big 6,” the A-10 was poised to make a huge step forward, as seven teams looked in really good shape to get an NCAA invite–a step forward.  But, then the last two weeks of February happened, and it all fell apart for teams like Dayton, Charlotte, and URI–two steps back.  It’s all pretty upsetting, if you ask me.  Anyway, I still believe that they will get there eventually.  The Temple Owls won the regular season conference title and will try and make it three straight tournament titles this weekend.  Xavier, Richmond, and St. Louis also earned a bye to AC.  Bry is the defending A-10 champ, riding the Owls to 260 points (70 more than second place).  Waters won the A-10 back in ’08.

#9 Duquesne (7-9) at #8 St. Bonaventure (7-9).  The Bonnies have been playing pretty well in the later stages of the season, and Duquesne has had a pretty disappointing season, considering the expectations that last year’s success brought to the program.  But, there is always a redemption chance in the A-10 tournament.  Though, this year it’s tougher.  Duquesne has to travel up to Olean, NY, tonight to play the Bonnies who are really tough at home.  The winner would play #1 Temple (I love typing that) on Friday in Atlantic City.  J, Doogan, and Alexi all have the underdog Dukes in a mild upset.  Everyone else has the Bonnies.  No one picked against Temple in the quarters, so no one can lose a semifinalist here.

#12 St. Joseph’s (5-11) at #5 Rhode Island (9-7).  The Rams were well on their way to an at-large bid, but just like last year, they threw it all away in the second half of February.  Their RPI was as high as 12, at one point, but now it has dipped to bubble-bursting levels.  They have a must-win tonight at home against St. Joe’s.  The Hawks were in real jeopardy of missing the A-10 tournament altogether (in fact, until the final day of the season, they were out), but they finally passed LaSalle to take the final spot.   The winner of this game will play St. Louis on Friday in the quarters.  Waters and Bry have St. Joe’s in a big upset here.  Waters even has them going to the semis.  KA has the most at stake here with URI, as she has them going to the finals.

#11 Massachusetts (5-11) at #6 Charlotte (9-7).  UMass also qualified for the A-10 tournament on the last day of the season, as they beat Rhode Island to get into the tournament.  Charlotte, like URI, was well on their way to an at-large bid before they lost six of the last seven games, and now they probably need to win the tournament (or at least reach the finals) to get in.  The winner of this game will play #3 Richmond on Friday.  Bry, Ina, Doogan, Lil Lohse, and KA all took the bait of the upset points with UMass.  Lynch is the only one that has either of these teams in the semis, as he has Charlotte beating Richmond next round.

#10 George Washington (6-10) at #7 Dayton (8-8).  And, yet another team that looked on their way to an at-large until February hit.  The Dayton Flyers have too much talent to make the field of 65, but that looks like it is going to be the case unless they go on a run this week.  The first step is tonight at home (where they are incredibly tough to beat) against GW.  A win tonight for Dayton and they will get a shot at a big RPI win against Xavier on Friday.  But, they have to get past the Colonials first.  J and Lil Lohse are the only two that took GW in this one.  Dayton, however, is a popular pick to win this game and another, as four entries (Waters, Lynch, Lohse, and Teddy) have Dayton knocking off GW and Xavier.  Lynch has Dayton going to the final game.

BIG SKY SEMIFINALS (8 points each):
After three days off, and completely overshadowed by the beginnings of the Big East and A-10 tournaments, the Big Sky picks back up with its semifinals on the Weber St. campus.  The two winners from Saturday’s games meet the top two seeds in the semis, with the finals tomorrow night.

#6 Montana vs. #2 N. Colorado (12-4).  Montana knocked off N. Arizona at home on Saturday to advance to the semis tonight.  And, the night was even more sweet for Grizzlies fans, as their arch-rivals, Montana St. lost at home to Portland St.  Not only does that loss make the fans happy, but it also, indirectly, helps Montana a great deal.  If MSU had won, Montana would have had to play the top-seeded (and hosts) Weber St. in the semis.  But, instead, they get a neutral-court game against N. Colorado.  J and Stri had Montana St. going to the finals, so they’ve already lost this game.  Lohse has a lot at stake here, as he has Montana winning the whole tournament.  Doogan, Lynch, and Teddy would like to see N. Colorado move on, as they have them winning it all.

#6 Portland St. at #1 Weber St. (13-3).  The Wildcats of Weber St. won the regular season title by one game over N. Colorado and, in doing so, not only earned the top-seed, but they also get to host the semis and finals of the conference tournament.  So, they get to play at home for the rest of the way.  Their semifinal opponent is Portland St., who is no stranger to road upset, as they are coming fresh off a win at Montana St. in the quarters.  Only Lohse has Portland St. in this one.  More than half of the field (Bry, J, Ina, Stri, Alexi, Lil Lohse, and Waters) have Weber St. winning the Big Sky. 

BIG EAST FIRST ROUND (5 points each):
I know it was done for money, not excitement, but I love the 16-team Big East tournament.  Every year, the pairings are so intriguing, especially with the double-bye format.  It rewards good regular seasons, but still allows everyone a shot.  And, the argument that the DePaul’s of the world should not be given a shot at an auto-bid are ridiculous.  If you mean to tell me that if DePaul is able to win five games in five nights in Madison Square Garden against progressively more difficult BIG EAST opponents, they don’t deserve a 14-seed, then you’ve got to be kidding yourself.  It’s not going to happen, but if one of these teams wins 5 Big East games in 5 nights, they at least deserve a 14-seed in The Dance.  If you want advice on Big East picks, call Doogan.  He has won back-to-back Big East CTC titles, including a complete domination last year, when his 275 points was 95 points better than second-place Ina and ONE-HUNDRED AND FIFTY points better than anyone else.  Doogan will start his quest for a three-peat today with the First Round action.

#9 S. Florida (9-9) vs. #16 DePaul (1-17).  DePaul if familiar with this spot in the Big East tournament, as they are the only team to ever be seeded #16 in a Big East tournament.  Last year, in the first year of the 16-team format, DePaul entered the tournament at 0-18 in-conference…and won!  They knocked Cincinnati right off the bubble at noon on Tuesday one year ago.  This year they come in at 1-17 in-conference and have the chance to do what they did to Cincy to USF this year.  The Bulls have had a decent year, and they are quietly building a nice program down there.  But, to get to the tournament, they may have to win at least three games in this tournament–not an easy thing to do.  The winner of this game will play #8 Georgetown, with the winner of that getting #1 Syracuse.  Bry is the only one that went for the upset points by picking DePaul.  Doogan, Lynch, and KA all have USF beating G’town in the second round.

#12 Connecticut (7-11) vs. #13 St. John’s (6-12).  We all know about the trials of UConn hoops this year.  It’s amazing to think that, barring some craziness this week, it looks like we will have an NCAA field without UConn, N. Carolina, Arizona, or UCLA.  Unthinkable.  But, UConn still has a shot, as they open today with the Johnnies.  St. John’s has fallen off the map, but they have a shot–at home, pretty much–to get back to relevancy.  The winner of this game will play #5 Marquette, with the winner of that playing #4 Villanova.  KA is the only one to take St. John’s in this one.  UConn is a popular upset pick down the line.  Bry, J, Alexi, and Waters all have UConn winning today and tomorrow.  J then has them continuing on to the semifinals.

#11 Cincinnati (7-11) vs. #14 Rutgers (5-13).  The Bearcats have probably played themselves off of the bubble, but the beauty (and challenge) of the Big East tournament is that you have plenty of opportunities to have season-changing wins over the next 5 nights.  This one wouldn’t be a season-changer, but it’s a start.  RU has not exactly taken off since leaving the A-10 for the Big East, but they did win 5 conference games this year and have a nice following in New York City.  The winner of this game will play Louisville in the second round, with the winner of that playing West Virginia in the quarters on Thursday.  Bry, Doogan, Lil Lohse, and Jersey-lovin’ Waters have Rutgers in this one.  Waters has them beating Louisville tomorrow.

#10 Seton Hall (9-9) vs. #15 Providence (4-14).  Not many people are talking about Seton Hall as an at-large, but the bubble is so incredibly soft that, with a good showing at MSG this week, they might just get in.  But, it has to start tonight, as they take on the #15-seeded Friars of Providence.  The winner of this game will play tomorrow against Notre Dame, with the winner of that taking on Pitt in the quarters.  Bry and Teddy are the only two to take PC in the upset.  Waters, Lil Lohse, and KA all have Seton Hall beating Providence tonight and Notre Dame tomorrow night.

MEAC OPENING ROUND (2 points each):
The MEAC, with the wackiest schedule of all the conference tournaments, plays two of its three opening round games tonight in Winston-Salem.  The other one will be tomorrow, along with two of the four quarterfinals.  The remaining two quarters will be on Thursday, with the semis Friday, and the finals on Saturday.  Lynch’s pulled off a fantastic comeback last year to win the MEAC.  After going 0-for-3 in the opening round, he went perfect from there on out to edge Stri for the MEAC title.  In a very low-scoring MEAC in ’08 (where no one correctly picked Coppin St. to win the tournament), Alexi took the CTC title.  Doogan has struggled in this conference, finishing last in the MEAC in each of the past two years, scoring only 18 points, total, in those two MEAC CTCs.

#7 Bethune Cookman (8-8) vs. #10 Florida A&M (4-12).  Bethune-Cookman (alma mater that educated one of the greatest humans to ever live, John Chaney) had a decent year in the MEAC this year, but lost their final two games and now are stuck in the opening round.  Their first-round opponent is FAMU, who struggled this season.  The winner will play #2 Delaware St. in the quarters tomorrow night.  Surprisingly, only Alexi and KA have the favored Bethune-Cookman in this one.  Teddy and J both have FAMU going to the semis.

#8 Howard (6-10) vs. #9 N.C. A&T (6-10).  The 8-9 matchup is between two 6-10 teams playing for a shot at #1 Morgan St. in the quarters.  Howard started strong this year, but has really struggled down the stretch.  N.C. A&T has struggled on and off throughout the season.  Bry, Ina, and Alexi all have N.C. A&T in the mild upset.  No one has either team beating Morgan St. next round.

Enjoy the games…