Baseball Challenge – First Update on Overall Team Trends

Below we will update yesterday’s results from the Challenge and do tonight’s picks, but first I want to update the overall team trends.  Like I said in the first post, one of the more interesting aspects of following this baseball season by Vegas lines is so that we can see what teams are outperforming expectations (at least those expectations as determined by the bookmakers).  There is a host of things we can do with all this data that we are collecting, so we will vary our updates throughout the season, but I want to just start with the simple concept of “If you were to bet $100 on every Yankees game this season, what would be your return on investment?”  Let’s just start with that.  Below is a table of all the MLB teams and the profit you would make on them if you had wagered $100 on them to win every day this year (as dictated by the opening money lines on one of the offshore internet gambling sites).  NOTE: Negative values are in parentheses.

Bet $100 ON:

1. Toronto (6-3) = $438.33
2. Minnesota (6-3) = $361.30
3. San Francisco (7-2) = $309.14
4. Philadelphia (7-1) = $271.81
5. St. Louis (6-2) = $242.24
6. Kansas City (4-5) = $195.00
7. Pittsburgh (4-5) = $165.00
8. N.Y. Yankees (5-3) = $157.30
9. Arizona (5-3) = $112.18
10. Tampa Bay (6-3) = $111.32
11. Cincinnati (5-4) = $94.83
12. Oakland (6-4) = $91.43
13. Texas (5-3) = $82.63
14. Detroit (6-3) = $47.01
15. Florida (5-4) = $23.10
16. Colorado (5-3) = $19.90
17. Chi Cubs (4-4) = $19.48
18. Washington (3-5) = ($27.00)
19. San Diego (3-5) = ($69.00)
20. Boston (4-4) = ($80.25)
21. Atlanta (4-4) = ($109.60)
22. Seattle (4-6) = ($140.80)
23. Milwaukee (3-5) = ($169.09)
24. Chi WSox (4-5) = ($194.17)
25. L.A. Angels (3-6) = ($285.58)
26. L.A. Dodgers (3-5) = ($295.01)
27. Cleveland (2-6) = ($325.00)
28. N.Y. Mets (2-6) = ($444.08)
29. Baltimore (1-8) = ($640.00)
30. Houston (0-8) = ($800.00)

But, I thought this measure, while interesting, weighted losses a bit too heavily, so I wanted to look at what would happen if you decided that you wanted to bet $100 AGAINST the team every game?  Well, here is what you’d have.  I ranked them in opposite order of profit in order to show the best-performing team (by this metric) on top.

Bet $100 AGAINST:

1. Philadelphia (7-1)
2. San Francisco (7-2)
3. Toronto (6-3)
4. St. Louis (6-2)
5. Minnesota (6-3)
6. Tampa Bay (6-3)
7. Cincinnati (5-4)
8. Colorado (5-3)
9. Oakland (6-4)
10. N.Y. Yankees (5-3)
11. Texas (5-3)
12. Pittsburgh (4-5)
13. Chi Cubs (4-4)
14. Florida (5-4)
15. Kansas City (4-5)
16. Arizona (5-3)
17. Detroit (6-3)
18. Washington (3-5)
19. Seattle (4-6)
20. San Diego (3-5)
21. Atlanta (4-4)
22. Boston (4-4)
23. Chi WSox (4-5)
24. Milwaukee (3-5)
25. Cleveland (2-6)
26. L.A. Dodgers (3-5)
27. L.A. Angels (3-6)
28. N.Y. Mets (2-6)
29. Houston (0-8)
30. Baltimore (1-8)

But, the same problem comes with this measure, except that it too heavily weights wins, so I decided to put the two together with a simple average.  Then, in grouping them in divisions, we can have the ADJUSTED STANDINGS.  You want to solve the unfairness of the haves and the have-nots?  Well, let’s use adjusted salaries to account for some of the inherent advantages of the Yankees and Red Sox.

NL EAST:

1. Philadelphia = $418.90
2. Florida = $58.90
3. Washington = $7.68
4. Atlanta = ($92.30)
5. N.Y. Mets = ($445.35)

NL CENTRAL:

1. St. Louis = $304.60
2. Cincinnati = $136.72
3. Pittsburgh = $133.50
4. Chi Cubs = $58.12
5. Milwaukee = ($160.24)
6. Houston = ($656.76)

NL WEST:

1. San Francisco = $379.57
2. Arizona = $95.02
3. Colorado = $86.50
4. San Diego = ($29.53)
5. L.A. Dodgers = ($294.88)

AL EAST:

1. Toronto = $403.45
2. Tampa Bay = $197.28
3. N.Y. Yankees = $148.08
4. Boston = ($97.63)
5. Baltimore = ($598.54)

AL CENTRAL:

1. Minnesota = $363.49
2. Kansas City = $136.79
3. Detroit = $46.01
4. Chi WSox = ($166.90)
5. Cleveland = ($272.86)

AL WEST:

1. Oakland = $119.35
2. Texas = $99.83
3. Seattle = ($62.78)
4. L.A. Angels = ($315.57)

Okay, well, on to today’s Challenge… 

[If anyone wants to join us in their picks, just let me know via email or comment below and I’ll start sending you the morning lines.  All you have to do is wager “BSB dollars” on any MLB games you want.  The dollars can be divied up any way you wish, up to $100 each day.  We’ll track the progress periodically on the blog.  There is no obligation at all.  Do it every day, once a week, once a month, or whatever.]

PICKS – APRIL 15:
Both of us took $10 shots at a couple road ‘dogs (the Brewers in Chicago and the Angels in New York).  And, for the second night in a row, we are head-to-head in the Boston-Minnesota game.  Doogan won last night with the Sox and is trying to ride them again today against Francisco Liriano.  Bry likes the Twins to bounce back tonight and beat up on 98-year old Tim Wakefield.

Doogan:

• $25 Atl (-135) @ SD
• $20 Bos (+105) @ Min
• $20 ChW (+110) @ Tor
• $15 Ari (-105) @ LAD
• $10 Mil (+150) @ ChC
• $10 LAA (+160) @ NYY

Bry:

• $25 Oak (-150) vs. Bal
• $25 Ari (-105) @ LAD
• $15 Fla (-150) vs. Cin
• $15 Min (-125) vs. Bos
• $10 Mil (+150) @ ChC
• $10 LAA (+160) @ NYY

RESULTS – APRIL 14:
Both contestants have HUGE days on Wednesday.  Doogan goes over $200 in yearly profit, as Bry tops the $100 mark.

Doogan:

• $30 Atl (-145) @ SD = WON $20.69
• $20 Bos (-135) @ Min = WON $14.81
• $15 LAA (+175) @ NYY = WON $26.25
• $15 TB (-145) @ Bal = WON $10.34
• $10 Cin (+105) @ Fla = LOST
• $10 Mil (+125) @ ChC = LOST
• Daily Total = + $52.10
• Season Total = + $228.31

Bry:

• $25 Sea (-105) vs. Oak = WON $23.81
• $25 Atl (-145) @ SD = WON $17.24
• $15 LAA (+175) @ NYY = WON $26.25
• $10 TB (-145) @ Bal = WON $6.90
• $10 Tex (-115) @ Cle = WON $8.70
• $10 Min (+115) vs. Bos = LOST
• $5 Ari (+165) @ LAD = WON $8.25
• Daily Total = + $81.14
• Season Total = + $137.51