My goal was to get at least 5 of the 8 Sweet 16 games right. While, the disappointing Thursday performance didn’t help, I still have a shot – if I can go 4-0 today. Here goes…
Indianapolis, IN – Friday, 7:15 – Tennessee vs Michigan (-3)
Tennessee has looked fantastic this tournament in winning 3 games rather handily. But, they beat an Iowa team that was taking on water, a UMass team that was grossly overseeded, and a Mercer team that was just happy to be still playing two days after shocking the Dukies. The Wolverines have looked just as impressive and have played the toughest team either had to face in Texas. That being said, it is hard not to be tantalized by the incredible talent on this Tennessee roster. Jarnell Stokes has been – by far – the best player in this tournament so far, and Jordan McRae is a star as well. Plus, with the emergence of Josh Richardson and the steady presence of Jeronne Maymon (they seem to have cornered the market on “J” names) give this team some depth beyond their two studs. Talentwise, I like Tennessee A LOT more than I like Michigan, and if they switched coaches, I think this Tennessee team might be a 10-point favorite. But, coaching is so important this time of year and Beilein is just such a better coach. So, with 5 days to prepare, I have to go against my original leaning and give the points, but I’m not all that confident about it.
The Pick: Michigan -3 (*)
New York, NY – Friday, 7:27 – Connecticut vs Iowa State (-2)
The other early game is another one that is tough to get a read on, but for different reasons. Iowa State was a legit title contender (in my eyes) before the Georges Niang injury, but now they probably don’t have the depth or balance to win the whole thing (which is very unfortunate). That being said, they played a good UNC team on Sunday with Niang and took care of business. Dustin Hogue filled in admirably, and Melvin Ejim and Deandre Kane were stellar – as usual. So, how much does it hurt them? The difference may be in the fact that UNC only had a day to prepare for a Niang-less Cyclone team, while UConn now has 5 days. In this really interesting battle between two heady coaches who are really good friends and both institute a lot of pro sets, there is one thing that is probably the reason this line is skewed – Madison Square Garden is going to be rocking with Huskie fans. In a vaccuum, there is no way UConn should only be getting 2 points against ISU even with Niang, but the line is saying something, and I think that something is that MSG is a big advantage for a team that has won 7 Big East tournament titles and one NIT in that very building. I’m shaky on this one, too, but gimme Shabazz and the Huskies in the Big Apple.
The Pick: Connecticut +2 (*)
Indianapolis, IN – Friday, 9:45 – Kentucky vs Louisville (-4.5)
I have trouble remember a better pair of games tipping off around the same time in my entire life. This is the most that can possibly be at stake with two games at the same time (later rounds are all played with staggered start times), and these two games are phenomenal! This one in Indy might be the most anticipated college hoops game of the year so far, as two BITTER BITTER BITTER rivals face off with their seasons on the line. Add in two coaches that despise one another and two fanbases at each other’s throats, and you’ve got yourselves ridiculous drama. Plus, it’s the defending national champion against the preseason #1, who just knocked off a 35-0 team to get here. Buckle your seatbelts, it’s gonna get GOOD. Or not… I think it might not be close. I have watched UK a lot this year, and they just aren’t nearly as good as they were against Wichita, and I have very little confidence that they will play that well – even against their arch-rivals – tonight. This is my favorite pick of the round.
The Pick: Louisville -4.5 (****)
New York, NY – Friday, 9:57 – Michigan State vs Virginia (+2)
And, finally, the 8th game of the round and it is another game that is so tough to read. Michigan State is playing up to their potential – that is, one of the odds-on favorites to cut down the nets in Dallas next week. But, UVA is playing incredibly well and cannot be overlooked. The Cavs play relentless defense that can rattle anyone. The Spartans need a solid game from point guard, Keith Appling, who has been struggling lately (and may be battling numerous injuries). On paper, MSU has more talent and experience, but the question remains how healthy they are. It is tough to know, but one thing that we should all remember is that Tom Izzo teams are built for March, and while injuries can derail even the best of plans, I am not ready to say it ends here. Gimme Sparty here and I’ll lay the 2.
The Pick: Michigan State -2 (**)
