Baseball Challenge: April Results

So, Doogan and I have been throwing around a “mock” $100 on MLB every day (or, at least, a lot of days) to see how we would do as professional MLB gamblers.  It’s what we’re calling the 2010 MLB Challenge.  If you like statistics or gambling or even just baseball, I think this stuff will be really interesting.  Personally, I do, obviously, enjoy sports handicapping, but I find these numbers actually more interesting from a fan’s perspective than a gambler’s because I think it gives you a real way to measure how teams are performing against expectations.  It is the best figure we have to normalize for pitching matchups or tough schedules or what-not.  The Rays have played a ridiculously tough schedule and it shows with their profits so far.  So, as a fan, I find this stuff even more relevant than I do as a gambler.

[NOTE: If anyone wants to join us in their picks, just let me know via email or a comment below, and I’ll start sending you the morning lines.  All you have to do is wager “BSB dollars” on any MLB games you want.  The dollars can be divied up any way you wish, up to $100 each day.  We’ll track the progress periodically on the blog.  There is no obligation at all.  Do it every day, once a week, once a month, or whatever.  I’ll even keep track of your “performance” on a monthly basis, along the lines of how you’re about to see for the April picks.]

One of the most interesting things about this (and the impetus for this “challenge”) is tracking to see how you would do if you rode one team all year.  Or, if you bet against one team all year.  Seeing what teams do better than “Vegas” says they would do, etc.  So, I have all of those numbers for the month of April and will present them below.  Now, I know we’re almost halfway through May, but life has been busy for me recently.  I do have the tracking numbers as of April 30, though.  Here are the April numbers:

Home Road Splits by League
How big is home-field advantage in MLB?  That’s a question that’s always bandied about in sports debates because the answer isn’t obvious like it is in the NFL or NBA, where there is a clear home-field advantage.  And, does it change, by league?  Does the DH have any affect on the home-field advantage because the home pitcher waits an extra inning before having to hit?  Do the more potent AL lineups make it more important to bat last?  Well, I don’t think that these numbers will answer these questions, but they might shine some light on them.  Here are the numbers:

• Overall it looks like Vegas gives too much deference to home teams, as betting on the ROAD team was 1.8 times more profitable than betting on the home team in April.  But, this doesn’t tell the whole tale because there were some astonishing results when you break it down between the two leagues.
  • In the American League, betting on the ROAD team was over TWELVE TIMES more profitable than betting on the home team.
  • But, in the National League, betting on the HOME team was almost TEN TIMES more profitable betting on the road team.

I’m not sure what to make of these numbers, and it might have to do with the flukiness of the schedule or things like that, but it is pretty interesting to have such a huge discrepancy over the course of a whole month.

Home Favorites/’Dogs vs. Road Favorites/’Dogs
In football, you always hear about the “home ‘dogs” and how profitable they are.  Well, is that the case in baseball?  And, if not, is there another combination that is better?  Well, here are the April numbers:

• Overall, the UNDERDOGS were nearly SEVEN TIMES more profitable bets than the favorites.
• The HOME ‘DOGS were nearly EIGHT TIMES more profitable than the home favorites.
• The ROAD ‘DOGS were about FIVE TIMES more profitable than the road favorites.

Betting On The Same Team Every Game
There were 13 teams that would have netted a profit were you to bet the same amount on them every game this year.  There were 17 teams on which you would have lost money.  Here are all 30 teams and the amount of money you would have made or lost (negative numbers shown in parentheses), had you bet $100 on every game they played.  The top team (Tampa Bay) and the bottom team (Baltimore) might not surprise anyone, but right after them come some teams you might not think of.  The surprisingly good starts of Washington and San Diego turned incredibly large profits, while Atlanta, the White Sox, and Milwaukee were all incredibly disappointing.  Teams like Pittsburgh, Kansas City, and Cincinnati were profitable bets, while teams like Philadelphia, Florida, and Colorado were not.  Here is the complete list:

1. Tampa Bay = $838.34
2. Washington = $818.24
3. San Diego = $752.20
4. Minnesota = $448.75
5. N.Y. Yankees = $266.26
6. N.Y. Mets = $255.00
7. Detroit = $252.86
8. Cincinnati = $225.98
9. St. Louis = $196.39
10. San Francisco = $179.80
11. Toronto = $33.77
12. Pittsburgh = $20.91
13. Kansas City = $12.96
14. Texas = ($57.18)
15. Arizona = ($88.49)
16. L.A. Angels = ($104.63)
17. Oakland = ($113.03)
18. Seattle = ($121.36)
19. Cleveland = ($142.67)
20. Philadelphia = ($148.21)
21. Florida = ($195.89)
22. Chi Cubs = ($332.04)
23. Colorado = ($396.08)
24. Houston = ($411.02)
25. Boston = ($444.02)
26. Milwaukee = ($476.70)
27. L.A. Dodgers = ($508.77)
28. Chi W.Sox = ($643.32)
29. Atlanta = ($835.86)
30. Baltimore = ($1,049.00)

Betting Against the Same Team Every Game
“A subtle difference,” you say, “between tracking the winnings of betting on a team and those from betting against them.”  And, yes, you would be right.  But, over the long haul, there is certainly a tangible difference, so we’ll track them both.  Below are the 30 teams in order of how much money you would make if you had bet $100 AGAINST them every game this year.  Notice that because of the “jig” associated with MLB bets, there are several teams (Cleveland, Texas, Seattle, and Oakland) where you would have lost money whether you decided to bet every game on them or every game against them.  There is one team where you would have turned a profit whether you bet on or against them every game…Kansas City.  Though, not surprisingly, you would have made more money betting against the lowly Royals.  I think the reason for this is that 4 out of 5 games, they are pretty substantial underdogs, so they can make up for losses with wins.  And, then on that fifth day, when they have Greinke pitching, they become heavy favorites, sometimes, but don’t really win that much.

1. Baltimore = $735.25
2. Atlanta = $532.65
3. Boston = $478.00
4. Chi W.Sox = $424.55
5. L.A. Dodgers = $415.19
6. Milwaukee = $410.06
7. Chi Cubs = $364.08
8. Houston = $207.81
9. Kansas City = $155.63
10. Philadelphia = $107.04
11. Florida = $95.75
12. L.A. Angels = $56.82
13. Colorado = $53.98
14. Arizona = $18.00
15. Cleveland = ($5.56)
16. Texas ($85.83)
17. Pittsburgh = ($116.43)
18. Seattle = ($117.47)
19. Oakland = ($123.65)
20. Toronto = ($155.18)
21. Cincinnati = ($219.11)
22. Detroit = ($279.03)
23. N.Y. Mets = ($284.00)
24. San Francisco = ($388.52)
25. Minnesota = ($482.71)
26. St. Louis = ($546.47)
27. N.Y. Yankees = ($613.85)
28. Washington = ($614.56)
29. Tampa Bay = ($918.25)
30. San Diego = ($980.03)

 (Quick note:  I just did the numbers on the Royals.  If you were to bet $100 ON them every time anyone other than Greinke pitched, you would have made $326.00.  And, then, if you were to have bet $100 AGAINST them every time Greinke did pitch, you would have made another $320.49.  That total of $646.49 would be the fifth most profitable bet behind betting ON Tampa Bay, Washington, and San Diego, and betting AGAINST Baltimore.)

20 Most Profitable Pitchers to Bet Against
And, what about if you decided to bet $100 AGAINST a certain pitcher every game?  Well, here are the 20 most profitable choices for the month of April:

1. Tom Gorzelanny (CHC) = $423.33
2. Brett Anderson (OAK) = $418.00
3. Jason Hammel (COL) = $412.34
4. Joe Saunders (LAA) = $351.97
5. Jake Peavy (CHW) = $342.57
6. Kyle Kendrick (PHI) = $323.80
7. Zack Greinke (KC) = $320.49
8. Felipe Paulino (HOU) = $314.48
9. Charlie Morton (PIT) = $313.34
10. Kenshin Kawakami (ATL) = $311.24
11. Greg Smith (COL) = $306.67
12. Gil Meche (KC) = $279.98
13. Javier Vazquez (NYY) = $279.24
14. Matt Cain (SF) = $274.21
15. Tim Wakefield (BOS) = $268.00
16. Jeremy Guthrie (BAL) = $259.43
17. Edwin Jackson (ARI) = $256.90
18. Charlie Haeger (LAD) = $252.86
19. Dave Bush (MIL) = $251.21
20. Matt Harrison (TEX) = $248.97

Phillies Starting Pitchers
Wonder how the Phillies pitchers have done through April?  Well, here is your profit/loss, if you were to have bet $100 on every game started by a Phillies pitcher below:

• Roy Halladay = $98.43
• Cole Hamels = $45.19
• Jamie Moyer = ($4.81)
• J.A. Happ = ($37.50)
• Kyle Kendrick = ($356.52)
• Nelson Figureoa = $107.00
• Joe Blanton = didn’t pitch in April

So, we will update these numbers for each month for the rest of the season.  But, what we will also do is to track how Doogan and I (and anyone else who wants to join us) are doing in our own picks.  All of the following figures are through April 30:

Overall
The month went back and forth, with Doogan going crazy early, Bry coming back with a couple big days to take a lead, and then finally them settling in just about even.

• Bry = $80.67
• Doogan = $75.29

Splits – Home/Road
The home/road split is an interesting facet to track between us because we both tend to pick a lot more road teams, in trying to find the “values” of the night.

Doogan definitely had a high propensity for picking the road teams throughout the month, as over 80% of his bets were placed on the road team.  When he did go with a home team, though, he usually nailed it.  In fact, he got 11 of his 16 bets on the home team correct, for a profit of over $100.  He actually came out behind on his 67 road bets.

Though not quite as drastic, Bry also favored betting on the road teams by nearly a 2-to-1 ratio.  Bry did fare better with the road picks, though he did barely turn a profit on both sides.

• Doogan
  • + $109 Home (16)
  • – $34 Road (67)
• Bry
  • + $1.82 Home (46)
  • + $78.85 Road (88)

Splits – League
There might be some interesting findings when you break down each of our bets by league.  We are both definitely die-hard Phillies fans, but I think you could probably characterize us both as die-hard National League fans, as well.  And, at the very least, it’s pretty safe to say that we watch a lot more NL baseball than AL baseball, simply from collateral Phillies fandom.  But, does that translate into better “wagering” on NL games?  And, does it even factor in on how many of each league we select?

Doogan did favor the NL games slightly, as 55% of his picks were NL games.  He also turned a slightly better profit, in total and in average per bet (I didn’t do the exact ROI, Return on Investment–that might come in the subsequent months).

Bry, on the other hand, had no preference for league when selecting the bets, as he had exactly 67 bets on both leagues.  In fact, you can say that he has a slight preference for selecting AL games, since there are more NL games, as a whole.  And, then you look at profit and it’s extraordinary.  Bry is $160 in the black on AL games, while $80 in the red on NL games.

• Doogan
  • + $32 AL (37)
  • + $43 NL (46)
• Bry
  • + $160 AL (67)
  • – $80 NL (67)

 Splits – By Favorite
Obviously, if the bookmakers know anything (and there are large buildings in the Nevada desert that says they do), the favorites will win more often.  But, with baseball betting, in particular, it’s definitely important to find the right underdogs because the whole system basically relies on the money lines, or the “odds” that Team A will beat Team B on that given night.  So, it’s important to pick the favorites that are rock-solid and then take smart, calculated shots at underdogs from time to time.  There is money to be made in both, it’s just a bit of a different approach.

Interestingly, Doogan has placed as many bets on favorites as he has on underdogs.  And, just as interestingly, he has made pretty much the exact same profit on each.  Taking it further, when betting on the favorite, it doesn’t really affect him home or away, as he is a winner on both, but when talking underdogs, Doogan has CLEANED UP on home ‘dogs.  He’s only placed 8 bets on home ‘dogs, but has come away with a cool $94 profit.  Road ‘dogs, on the other hand, have been tough on him, as he’s down $63 on his 32 bets of road ‘dogs.

Bry’s affects are much more closely tied to how good he is at underdogs and how bad he is at picking favorites.  He is down $122 from picking favorites.  Fortunately, for him, he’s almost twice as likely to pick an underdog (85 ‘dogs to 45 favorites), and he’s making his money on the longshots.  In fact, Bry is best with the longest odds.  He has placed 12 bets on a team with odds of +170 (1.7-to-1) or worse, and he’s won half of them, turning a profit of $74 on these longshots alone.  If only he could pick the teams that were supposed to win a little bit better than he does.

•  Doogan
  • + $32 Favorites (40)
    • + $18 Road Favorites (32)
    • + $14 Home Favorites (8)
  • + $31 Underdogs (40)
    • – $63 Road ‘Dogs (32)
    • + $94 Home Dogs (8)
  • + $12 Pick ‘Ems (3)
• Bry
  • -$122 Favorites (45)
    • – $85 Road Favorites (26)
    • – $37 Home Favorites (19)
  • + $205 Underdogs (85)
    • + $157 Road ‘Dogs (59)
    • + $48 Home ‘Dogs (26)
  • – $2 Pick ‘Ems (4)

Splits – Betting ON Certain Teams
So, Doogan and Bry both have their individual trends with teams that they like to bet on.  Both have bet on the Phillies and White Sox a whole lot of times, with very poor results.  Both have also struggled betting on small market teams such as Florida and Oakland, but both have made money betting on small market teams like the Rays, Twins, and Padres.  Doogan has ridden the Yankees all year, while Bry has made real good money on Detroit.  Doogan has done well with Colorado, while Bry has lost money on the Rox.  Bry, on the other hand, has turned a decent profit on Seattle, while Doogan has been slaughtered by them.

DOOGAN’S MOST PROFITABLE TEAMS TO BET ON

1. N.Y. Yankees = $65.01 – 7 bets
2. Minnesota = $59.89 – 3 bets
3. Arizona = $32.18 – 3 bets
4. San Diego = $29.00 – 1 bet
5. Tampa Bay = $28.80 – 3 bets

DOOGAN’S LEAST PROFITABLE TEAMS TO BET ON:

1. Seattle = ($59.66) – 6 bets
2. Philadelphia = ($41.07) – 7 bets
3. Oakland = ($35.00) – 2 bets
4. Chicago W.Sox = ($29.00) – 4 bets
5. L.A. Dodgers = ($25.00) – 2 bets

DOOGAN’S MOST POPULAR TEAMS TO BET ON

1. N.Y. Yankees = 7
2. Philadelphia = 7
3. Atlanta = 6
4. Seattle = 6
5. Florida = 5 

BRY’S MOST PROFITABLE TEAMS TO BET ON

1. Tampa Bay = $86.73 – 7 bets
2. Detroit = $85.75 – 7 bets
3. Toronto = $48.25 – 3 bets
4. Minnesota = $45.50 – 6 bets
5. Chicago Cubs = $32.90 – 3 bets

BRY’S LEAST PROFITABLE TEAMS TO BET ON

1. Philadelphia = ($98.32) – 8 bets
2. Chicago W.Sox = ($64.00) – 8 bets
3. Texas = ($33.30) – 5 bets
4. Florida = ($31.50) – 8 bets
5. Oakland = ($24.00) – 7 bets

BRY’S MOST POPULAR TEAMS TO BET ON

1. Chicago W.Sox = 8
2. Florida = 8
3. Philadelphia = 8
4. several tied at 7

Splits – Betting AGAINST Certain Teams
There are also trends of betting against certain teams.  Both have bet often and successfully against the Orioles.  Both have bet often and unsuccessfully against the Giants.  Detroit has been a profitable team for both to bet against, as have Arizona, Colorado, and the Angels.  Both are losing money betting against Seattle, Texas, and Pittsburgh.  Interestingly, Bry seems to have a firm grasp on the Tigers and Cubs, as he has made significant money both betting on them and against them.  Doogan has that connection with Arizona and Colorado.  Bry is stumped by Florida, as he has lost significant money betting both on and against them.

DOOGAN’S MOST PROFITABLE TEAMS TO BET AGAINST

1. Baltimore = $58.88 – 7 bets
2. Washington = $34.89 – 2 bets
3. Cleveland = $34.47 – 3 bets
4. Boston = $34.25 – 3 bets
5. Houston = $31.79 – 5 bets

DOOGAN’S LEAST PROFITABLE TEAMS TO BET AGAINST

1. San Francisco = ($78.00) – 6 bets
2. Toronto = ($39.00) – 4 bets
3. L.A. Dodgers = ($30..00) – 2 bets
4. Texas = ($24.66) – 4 bets
5. Pittsburgh = ($23.89) – 3 bets

DOOGAN’S MOST POPULAR TEAMS TO BET AGAINST

1. Baltimore = 7
2. San Francisco = 6
3. Houston = 5
4. N.Y. Mets = 5
5. many tied at 4

BRY’S MOST PROFITABLE TEAMS TO BET AGAINST

1. Baltimore = $64.86 – 9 bets
2. Chicago Cubs = $61.83 – 8 bets
3. Boston = $59.00 – 9 bets
4. Detroit = $50.00 – 3 bets
5. Kansas City = $41.50 – 2 bets

BRY’S LEAST PROFITABLE TEAMS TO BET AGAINST

1. Cleveland = ($56.30) – 5 bets
2. L.A. Dodgers = ($56.25) – 8 bets
3. N.Y. Mets = ($47.00) – 5 bets
4. San Francisco = ($38.00) – 3 bets
5. Florida = ($35.00) – 3 bets

BRY’S MOST POPULAR TEAMS TO BET AGAINST

1. L.A. Angels = 10
2. Baltimore = 9
3. Boston = 9
4. Chicago Cubs = 8
5. L.A. Dodgers = 8

Splits – Betting ON Certain Pitchers
It’s interesting to see which pitchers strike the fancy of the gamers.  Doogan has been riding the backs of Yankees Andy Pettitte and A.J. Burnett–three times each for serious profits.  Bry has turned the clock back to 2003, as he has ridden the backs of Dontrelle Willis, Livan Hernandez, and Barry Zito to some nice profits.  Chris Volstad is the only pitcher on which Doogan has placed two losing bets.  Bry has lost three times with Josh Johnson for a $30 loss, and three times with Kyle Kendrick for a $65 loss…ouch!

DOOGAN’S MOST PROFITABLE PITCHERS TO BET ON

1. Andy Pettitte (NYY) = $60.43 – 3 bets
2. Francisco Liriano (MIN) = $30.00 – 1 bet
3. Nick Blackburn (MIN) = $29.89 – 2 bets
4. A.J. Burnett (NYY) = $29.58 – 3 bets
5. Chris Young (SD) = $29.00 – 1 bet
6. Ian Kennedy (ARI) = $29.00 – 1 bet

DOOGAN’S MOST POPULAR PITCHERS TO BET ON

1. Andy Pettitte (NYY) = 3
2. A.J. Burnett (NYY) = 3
3. many tied at 2

BRY’S MOST PROFITABLE PITCHERS TO BET ON

1. Dontrelle Willis (DET) = $47.25 – 2 bets
2. Livan Hernandez (WAS) = $43.50 – 2 bets
3. Francisco Liriano (MIN) = $42.00 – 2 bets
4. Barry Zito (SF) = $38.18 – 4 bets
5. Andy Pettitte (NYY) = $32.19 – 2 bets

BRY’S LEAST PROFITABLE PITCHERS TO BET ON

1. Kyle Kendrick (PHI) = ($65.00) – 3 bets
2. Todd Wellemeyer (SF) = ($35.00) – 2 bets
3. Jair Jurrjens (ATL) = ($35.00) – 2 bets
4. Gavin Floyd (CHW) = ($30.00) – 2 bets
5. Josh Johnson (FLA) = ($30.00) – 3 bets

BRY’S MOST POPULAR PITCHERS TO BET ON

1. Barry Zito (SF) = 4
2. many tied at 3

Splits – Betting AGAINST Certain Pitchers
And, the other part of the equation is the pitcher you bet against.  There are some different approaches to this.  Doogan has taken the tried-and-true approach of betting against bad pitchers.  He’s won multiple times on Oliver Perez, Brad Bergesen, David Huff, and Bud Norris.  Bry, on the other hand, seems to try and find “value” in inflated lines against “big-name” pitchers.  He has won multiple times on Carlos Zambrano, Tim Hudson, Javier Vazquez, Joel Piniero, Clayton Kershaw, Adam Wainwright, and Jon Lester.

DOOGAN’S MOST PROFITABLE PITCHERS TO BET AGAINST

1. Brian Matusz (BAL) = $43.58 – 2 bets
2. John Lackey (BOS) = $31.25 – 1 bet
3. Justin Verlander (DET) = $30.00 – 1 bet
4. Ted Lilly (CHC) = $29.00 – 1 bet
5. Edwin Jackson (ARI) = $29.00 – 1 bet

DOOGAN’S MOST POPULAR PITCHERS TO BET AGAINST

1. many tied at 2

BRY’S LEAST MOST PROFITABLE PITCHERS TO BET AGAINST

1. Tom Gorzelanny (CHC) = $42.00 – 2 bets
2. Joel Piniero (LAA) = $40.69 – 2 bets
3. Carlos Zambrano (CHC) = $38.08  2 bets
4. Justin Verlander (DET) = $30.00 – 1 bet
5. Tim Hudson (ATL) = $28.65 – 2 bets

BRY’S LEAST PROFITABLE PITCHERS TO BET AGAINST

1. Hiroki Kuroda (LAD) = ($45.00) – 2 bets
2. Jonathan Sanchez (SF) = ($40.00) – 1 bet
3. Jonathon Niese (NYM) = ($39.50) – 3 bets
4. Ryan Dempster (CHC) = ($30.00) – 2 bets
5. Ricky Nolasco (FLA) = ($30.00) – 2 bets
6. Ricky Romero (TOR) = ($30.00) – 2 bets

BRY’S MOST POPULAR PITCHERS TO BET AGAINST

1. David Hernandez (BAL) = 4
2. Jered Weaver (LAA) = 4
3. Chad Billingsley (LAD) = 3
4. Jon Lester (BOS) = 3
5. Jonathon Niese (NYM) = 3
6. Javier Vazquez (NYY) = 3
7. Adam Wainwright (STL) = 3

Hope this is even half as interesting to anyone else as it is to me…probably not.  Either way, there will be another update in May with the numbers from the first two months of the season.  Good luck, Doogan.