2014 World Cup – Group E (FINAL)

This post will be updated as Group E progresses.

Group E Preview (Ecuador, France, Honduras, Switzerland)
Don’t look now, but Switzerland is ranked 6th in the world.  Now, from what I understand (or, more apt, DON’T understand), that ranking is very much inflated by, well, something that I don’t understand.  And, people “in the know” think it’s laughable to think that there are only 5 sides in the world better than the Swiss, but still.  As for the others in this group, France is 17th, Ecuador is 26th, and Honduras is 33rd.  And, yes, the betting odds have France as the heavy favorite to win this group, even without their best (and ugliest) goal-scorer, Franck Ribery.  Honduras is probably a longshot here, but, personally, I would not count out Ecuador from ruining the group stage for one of the European sides.  (Hopefully not Switzerland, as I have them at 3:1 to win this group and 100:1 to win it all.)

6/15, noon – Ecuador vs. Switzerland
Ecuador gets a shot to play spoiler right away, as they take on that “overrated” Swiss side.  This should be a very interesting “measuring stick” kind of a match.  We may know right away whether the FIFA rankings seem bogus and/or whether or not the Ecuadorians are the sleepers that I think they could be.  A draw here wouldn’t be devastating for the Swiss, but it isn’t what they are looking for, that’s for sure.  Ecuador would take the point and run.

Switzerland 2 – Ecuador 1
Wow!  Yet another team that scores first loses, and this one was in spectacularly devastating fashion for the Ecuadorians, as they held a 1-0 lead at halftime before giving up the equalizer right after the intermission.  It stayed 1-1 for 45 minutes into stoppage time.  To their credit, Ecuador did not seem content with the draw and kept attacking into the stoppage time – nearly scoring themselves a couple of times.  However, that attacking style eventually cost them dearly, as the Swiss took a counterattack and scored the game-winner in the 3rd minute of stoppage time.  Ecuador definitely looked like a really dangerous sleeper, but they came away with zero points.  Then again, it was against maybe the best team in the group.  The Swiss picked up a big 3 points here.

6/15, 3:00 – France vs. Honduras
We all remember the debacle that was South Africa 2010 for the L’Equipe Nationale.  Well, apparently, they have totally revamped the roster and are ready to turn the page on that.  They get a pretty cushy spot to do that here, as the Hondurans will most likely be overmatched by the Frenchies.  Then again, does anyone trust the French to be mentally “tough?”

France 3 – Honduras 0
As if it wasn’t a task tall enough for the Hondurans to come in here and play with one of the world’s most talented and potent soccer nations.  But, a yellow card in the box, which happened to be a second yellow for Wilson Palacios, not only put them down 1-0, but also down a man.  It was pretty much over at that point, and the Frogs cruise to a opening victory.  This showed us very little about either team that we didn’t already know.  The Hondurans are not contenders, and the French are.

Day One Recap
The two Euro teams pick up victories over their Western hemisphere opponents.  The French took care of business against Honduras (which the Swiss and probably the Ecuadrians will do, too, so nothing much gained for them), while Switzerland picked up a huge win against an Ecuadorian team that will not be a pushover in their date with France.

6/20, 3:00 – France vs. Switzerland
Another Day Two match between two sides sitting on 3 points after opening round victories.  This is one of the more fascinating matches of the second round, as France is considered the favorite to win this group, despite Switzerland’s higher FIFA ranking, higher qualifying status, and overall better form coming into the Cup.  What do people know about France and/or Switzerland that I do not?  I see the Swiss as the better side here – what am I missing?  Anyway, the winner here is in great shape to win this group and would most likely avoid Argentina in the Round of 16.  Both sides are looking for a victory, but both would probably be okay with a draw, particularly Switzerland, as they have an overmatched Honduras squad in their final match, so a draw here should put them right on track to end with 7 points.  France, with a tough Ecuador side coming up, is probably looking for 3 here.

France 5 – Switzerland 2
Well, one thing I can do is admit when I am wrong.  And, I was VERY wrong on this one.  My sportsbook account took a hit here, too, as I had Switzerland (+280) to win the group and France (+450) not to make it out.  Both of those bets took a serious drubbing with this result, as France looks like the clear class of this group and may be a tough out down the line.  The Swiss, who were somewhat lucky to get 3 points from Ecuador, are still in decent position if they can put it together and beat a bad Honduras side, but this didn’t engender too much confidence in them going forward.

6/20, 6:00 – Ecuador vs Honduras
As good as CONCACAF has been in this tournament, Honduras is not really a good representative because, well, they are not very good.  They got trounced by France in the opener and will likely leave Brazil with 0 points.  Ecuador, coming off of a heartbreaker against Switzerland, gets a real scheduling break here, as they can right themselves against an inferior Honduras side before preparing for their all-important final match against France.  Anything shy of 3 points for the South Americans here would be devastating.

Ecuador 2 – Honduras 1
In a surprisingly entertaining match, Ecuador had to summon the brilliance of Enner Valencia to overcome a 1-0 deficit against a feisty Honduras side.  I am not sure if this was just Honduras coming up and playing well or if this is an indication of an Ecuador side that just isn’t all that good.  The Ecuadorians will need at least a point from France, maybe 3, since the Swiss take on Honduras.

Day Two Recap
The French are the story here and are in really good shape to win this group even if they lose to Ecuador because of their +6 goal differential.  The interesting thing about this group is that there is a somewhat legitimate chance that we could have the first ever elimination of a side sitting on 6 points.  If Switzerland beats Honduras (probable) and Ecuador beats France (at least possible), then all three sides will be on 6 points.  France should be safe with their goal differential, but someone will be out with 6 (probably Switzerland unless they crush Honduras).  Either way, the French should not mess around because the second-place side here gets Argentina in the Round of 16, while the winner likely gets Bosnia or Nigeria.

6/25, 4:00 – Ecuador vs. France
6/25, 4:00 – Honduras vs. Switzerland
This pair of matches gives us one of those interesting battles between two sides for a final spot who are not playing each other.  So, this will require some scoreboard watching and adjustments accordingly.  France is through and, barring a 2-goal loss to Ecuador, will win the group and avoid Argentina.  Honduras is not out officially, but needs a minor miracle in these final matches to sneak through.  That means that we are down to two sides – Ecuador and Switzerland – playing for one spot – E2.  But, they obviously are not playing each other.  At the moment, they are both on 3 points and Ecuador has a 2-goal edge in differential.  But, Ecuador is facing a really good French side, while Switzerland is taking on a rather poor Honduras side.  If Ecuador can get the same result as Switzerland, they are likely to move through, but if the Ecuadorians can only draw with France, while the Swiss beat Honduras, Switzerland will move on.  I have $500 ($5 at 100-1) at stake for the Swiss to win this tournament, so that’s where my rooting interests lie.

Ecuador 0 – France 0
Switzerland 3 – Honduras 0
Switzerland did exactly what they needed to do – they got a 3-goal victory over Honduras, which would clinched their knockout stage qualification unless France lost by multiple goals to Ecuador.  And, once Antonio Valencia went off with a red card (and Shaqiri had already netted a hat trick for the Swiss), it was pretty much a done deal.  The Ecuadorians played hard and played well, holding a potent French offense scoreless, but, in the end, that stoppage time goal that they allowed to Switzerland in the very first match ended up being the difference.

Group E Final Recap
1. France – I think it is safe to say that maybe only the Netherlands have looked more impressive than the French so far in this tournament.  They scored 8 goals in their first two matches before playing a conservative 0-0 draw against Ecuador to move them through.  In the last 9 World Cups, the French were completely feast or famine.  They have been eliminated in the group stage 4 times and at least made the semifinals the other 5.  So, history tells us that if they get out of group play, they are very dangerous.  This year, they will move to the Round of 16 and a date with Nigeria.  Looking further ahead, the bracket sets us up for a pretty incredible France-Germany quarterfinal if they both take care of business beforehand.  I think it’s officially safe to say that, regardless of their performance from here on out, the nightmarish 2010 World Cup is officially behind them. 

2. Switzerland – The Swiss were not especially impressive, but they stayed the course and have qualified out of a somewhat treacherous group.  The thrashing of Honduras was a good sign to try and get them on the right track heading into the knockout stage, though they better be ready to go right away because Lionel Messi and the Argentines await in the Round of 16.

3. Ecuador – All in all, you have to say that the Ecuadorians acquitted themselves well despite being the only South Americans not to make the knockout stage.  That stoppage time goal they conceded to Switzerland in their very first match proved to be their undoing, as they put themselves in a must-beat-France position, which proved to be just too tough.  Either way, they can leave with their heads held high, and Enner Valencia can leave with his star a good bit brighter.

4. Honduras – An overmatched side in a somewhat difficult group, Honduras cannot be all that surprised or disappointed to be leaving without a point.  They did look good in their middle match against Ecuador, but were simply overwhelmed by the two European sides who abused them on their way out of the group.  The only CONCACAF side not to qualify for the knockout stage was clearly the weakest from that Confederation going in.  The Hondurans should just be proud back-to-back Cup qualifications.