Week Eight is in the books and Week Nine (another light schedule) will take every team to the halfway point in their season. For the first time in this preview, we will start taking a look at the playoff picture, as it’s starting to take a little shape here.
BYES: Denver (2-6), Jacksonville (2-6), San Francisco (4-4), St. Louis (1-7), Tennessee (4-4), Washington (2-6)
Sunday, November 7:
1:00 – N.Y. JETS (4-3) at Detroit (2-5)
I really wanted to pick Detroit here–I even had the paragraph written and had moved on to the next game, but I came back. I can’t really justify the Lions knocking off the Jets. I think it’s a real toss up game, but the Jets are just the better team and their defense should harrass young QB Matthew Stafford. I think that there are better days on the horizon for Detroit, but just not yet. I almost had them here, but we’ve got to keep some credibility, right?
1:00 – Miami (3-4) at BALTIMORE (4-3)
Yet another brutal scheduling spot for Miami, as they have to play in Baltimore against a rested Ravens team coming off of a bye and desperate for a win. Yes, Baltimore has a short week coming up to prepare for Miami on Thursday night, but they’ve had two week to gameplan the Dolphins and should be able to get this one done.
1:00 – NEW ENGLAND (5-2) at Cleveland (2-5)
This one might be a closer call than many realize, as the Browns are at home and coming off of the bye, but, short of blizzard conditions in Cleveland, I don’t see the Browns defense stopping New England from putting up at least 30.
1:00 – San Diego (7-1) at HOUSTON (4-3)
This is a tough spot for both teams, actually. The Texans have a short week, coming off a Monday night affair with arch-rival Indianapolis, but they have the luxury of playing at home at 1:00 against a West Coast team. The Chargers, who I nearly picked in this game, are coming off a physical game against Tennessee and are looking ahead to a bye week. This is definitely the kind of team that might just mail it in on the road if they are 7-1 and staring at a bye week. Just sayin’…
1:00 – CHICAGO (4-3) at Buffalo (1-6)
The Bears are coming off of the bye and get the break of playing their “road” game in Toronto and not Buffalo. Ya, as if the Bills needed anything more to work against them, now they have to travel 2 hours for one of their home games every year.
1:00 – Arizona (2-5) at MINNESOTA (3-4)
A bad Arizona team on the road in an early game against an elite, but desperate Vikings team. Next…
1:00 – Tampa Bay (1-6) at ATLANTA (5-2)
A bad Tampa team on the road against a hungry Falcons team with two weeks to prepare. This one’s easy, too.
1:00 – New Orleans (7-1) at CAROLINA (4-3)
A chink in the armor here for the defending champs, as they head into their bye week? They got beat up at home by Pittsburgh last week, and now I can see them struggling to get anything going against the ball control offense of the Panthers. The NFC South just got a lot more interesting.
4:05 – N.Y. GIANTS (4-3) at Seattle (1-6)
You all know how much I want to pick against the Giants every time their name comes up, but I can’t do it again here. The Giants have two weeks to prepare for a bad Seattle team. Yes, these road trips are tough, and yes, they have their eyes set on Dallas next week, but if I picked the Giants to lose to Seattle, my homerism might be too much for me to be able to pick the next one.
4:15 – Indianapolis (7-0) at PHILADELPHIA (5-2)
I know I just made a joke about being a homer, but at least give me the chance to explain. The reason I do this week-by-week analysis is to find out things that might not otherwise be apparent, but play huge roles in the ebb and flow of an NFL season. And, this game sums it up completely. If you looked at the Eagles schedule and just tried to find wins and losses, you would look at a game against Indy and just say “L.” And, you probably wouldn’t be too far off. However, these games are not played in a vacuum. Humor me here. The Eagles are coming off of a bye. Andy Reid is something like 10-1 in his career after the bye, and I’m pretty sure he’s never lost at home after the bye. Plus, the Colts just played a heated divisional game on Monday night against Houston, and have a really tough game against Cincinnati next week. It’s never good to see Indy on your schedule, but everything is in place for the Eagles to win this game. And, honestly, that is as unbiased as I could be, as I think I would take about 20 or so teams in this spot to beat Indy, it just happened to fall to my team.
4:15 – Kansas City (3-4) at OAKLAND (6-2)
For like the 97th week in a row, I’ve wanted to pick against the Raiders, but just couldn’t. I can’t find a reason to pick the Chiefs to win on the road in this one; I really can’t.
8:20 – Dallas (5-2) at GREEN BAY (5-3)
What a game this is going to be. Both teams are coming off of tough losses (Green Bay to the Jets and Dallas to the Jags). What it comes down to for me are two things: (1) the Packers are at home on a cold November night in Wisconsin, and (2) the Packers have a bye week coming up and have probably had this game circled on their calendar for a couple weeks now, while the Cowboys have the hated Giants next week. For these two reasons, I am going with the Pack to take this game on the Frozen Tundra.
Monday, November 8:
8:30 – PITTSBURGH (3-4) at Cincinnati (5-2)
Wow, this one is really tough. Both teams are coming off of tough wins (Cincy over Miami, Pitt at NO). Both teams have tough games next week (Cincy is at Indy, Pitt hosts NE). I think both teams are immensely talented. How do we separate this? The Bengals are at home on Monday night, but the Steelers are going to be pretty desperate at this point in the season. This is such a tough game to figure out and should go a very long way in deciding a lot in the AFC playoffs. This is officially the hardest game that I have predicted all season in any week, but I am going to go with the Steelers. As I have said before, one of the most important adages in the NFL these days is “when in doubt, go with the team that needs it more.” And, that is what I’m doing here. I believe that, at this point in the season, the Steelers will need this game more than the Bengals will. But, it’s a true toss of a coin.
STANDINGS AFTER WEEK 9
NFC EAST
6-2 Philadelphia
5-3 Dallas
5-3 N.Y. Giants
2-6 Washington
A big win over Indy for the Eagles put them in first place in the NFC Beast. The Cowboys take a tough loss and fall into a second-place tie with Big Blue. The ‘Skins have the week off to think about what they’ve done.
NFC NORTH
6-3 Green Bay
5-3 Chicago
4-4 Minnesota
2-6 Detroit
The Lions were very close to making this a 4-0 week for the NFC North, but I just couldn’t pull the trigger on them beating the Jets. The Pack got a big win over Dallas, as they head into their bye.
NFC SOUTH
7-2 New Orleans
6-2 Atlanta
5-3 Carolina
1-7 Tampa Bay
Carolina’s win over the Saints made this division very interesting all of a sudden. The Saints will take their bye week to regroup after back-to-back losses, while the Falcons will try and make up the half-game by which they trail the champs.
NFC WEST
4-4 San Francisco
2-6 Arizona
1-7 Seattle
1-7 St. Louis
An off day in the NFC West is basically a victory, as the Niners sit this one out and gain half-games on their two closest competitors.
AFC EAST
6-2 New England
5-3 N.Y. Jets
3-5 Miami
1-7 Buffalo
The Pats and Jets win, while the Dolphins and Bills lose…again.
AFC NORTH
5-3 Baltimore
5-3 Cincinnati
4-4 Pittsburgh
2-6 Cleveland
The absolutely enormous Monday night game went to the Steelers, we now have a first-place tie in the North. And, the Steelers have officially entered what is going to be a thrilling three-team race.
AFC SOUTH
7-1 Indianapolis
5-3 Houston
4-4 Tennessee
2-6 Jacksonville
The last of the unbeatens falls in Week Nine, as the ’72 Dolphins celebrate. The Texans picked up a game with a big win over San Diego. The two also-rans had the week off.
AFC WEST
7-2 Oakland
7-2 San Diego
3-5 Kansas City
2-6 Denver
Uh…wow. We are going to enter Week Eleven (both team have byes in Week Ten) with a flat-footed tie atop the AFC West. Who would have thunk it?
PLAYOFF PICTURE AFTER WEEK 9
NFC
#6 Car/Chi/Dal/NYG (5-3) at #3 Green Bay (6-3)
#5 Atlanta (6-2) at #4 San Francisco (4-4)
t.b.d. vs. #2 Philadelphia (6-2)
t.b.d. vs. #1 New Orleans (7-2)
In the mix: Minnesota (4-4)
Despite back-to-back losses, the Saints still have the best record in the NFC. The surprising Eagles would earn the bye if the season ended now. Green Bay is atop the Central, and San Fran (who you can all but guarantee will be the #4-seed) is atop the West. The Falcons have a firm grip on the first wild card, but there is a four-way tie for the last spot between the Giants, Cowboys, Bears, and Panthers, and honestly, I don’t feel like figuring out a four-way tiebreaker.
AFC
#6 NYJ/Bal/Hou (5-3) at #3 New England (6-2)
#5 Oakland (7-2) at #4 Cincinnati (5-3)
t.b.d. at #2 San Diego (7-2)
t.b.d. at #1 Indianapolis (7-1)
In the mix: Pittsburgh (4-4), Tennessee (4-4)
The Colts, who like the Saints in the NFC, lost this week, but are still looking to repeat as top-seed. The Chargers win the head-to-head tiebreaker against the Raiders for the West and the bye. The Pats are atop the East, and the Bengals beat Baltimore in Week Two to give them the head-to-head tiebreaker in the North. The Raiders, at 7-2, are the top wild card, while there is a three-way tie between the Jets, Ravens, and Texans for the final spot.
Click here for Week Ten (available 9/7 at 7:00 pm).
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